Member Info for wyndrum

pipes, fwiw, i'm not mad about elliot wave as it can often be very tricky to decide when a sequence started so as to know what wave is currently in play... but that's more a reflection on me i guess.

Anyway, the chart looks more likely to test the low 104p than rise but a break and hold above 123p would give support to a reversal underway.

If 104p does fall, I can't see where it would go to further, as this would be new territory given any chart reference would be over 5 years old and worthless.

No rush to buy at the moment based on the chart would be my (fairly obvious) analysis

Hi Trek, yes I took (understandably at the time) stick about talking about a placing 6 months or more ago when I could see the possibility that if LFT sales kept eating up cash with no revenue it would likely be an issue sooner rather than later.

(I thought the argument that it would last to 2023 just because AS said so was particularly weak. Anyway, that will either come to pass or not.)

When I said "Its always obvious in hindsight.” it was more that it is normally possible to join the dots after any event and the "shock" news is maybe not quite so out of the blue when seen through the prism of that wonderful vision.

The big (confirming) thing for me was the lack of any follow up on HUA. No orders , lack of website updates, a real anti-climax to what should have been, given its what the company has been waiting for for 18 months.

It should not be too long to wait for the AVA6k update

But yes, its always s hitty when days like this come along, but as i have tried to impart, capital protection is the most important thing in this game and picking any stock is a crap shoot.

It's a tough game and emotionally it can play havoc with the individual, that's why they say never fall in love with the stock, never over-commit, have a plan etc, but we all tend to have find out this the hard way.

Hi D, SNOW still looking a bit sickly imo. 250 is a potential floor. might test 293 resistance but as I say it looking a bit green around the gills at the moment.
Is there a chance it could benefit from a "surprise" RNS? ( i know all company's could), but is SNOW one that is likely to be in that type of news driven market?

Not really Gruff. The previous "good news" items never reflected any sales and therefore income. The longer it went on the more sceptical the market became and as a result discounted the news.

Its always obvious in hindsight.

Blimey D, I have no idea inasmuch it could go either way of the 3 options

The SP says (to me) steady as she goes assuming profit for sometime in 2022 (probably backend)

The macro environment is changing: higher living costs for consumers might make this type of purchase on the back burner while we settle down to these increased costs. Holidays will be back in fashion taking away some maybe, sales from EVE.

Thats the headwind, steady as she goes etc etc, scenario. small up tick

If EVE do anything that unambiguously says things are ahead of expectation, i can see immediate 50-75% up lift.

Downside is if EVE have gone backwards, which is possible, then I think it will be because of increased costs

Knowing EVE its steady as she goes (3.6p)
upside scenario, 20%?
Downside 2.2p 10%?

Who knows?

hector, I wasn't "attacking " Fred, and I though the comment he posted after the quotes were his own views.

Anyway, whatever.

Thanks

hector I think you may have confused me with someone else. I responded to Fred's view?

May I ask D, what are you expecting?

200p is stubborn bugger that's for sure!

Fred: "Sure this is clearly a temporary setback, as COVID testing still remains a long-term opportunity for the Company, and it is already putting its scientists to work on a next generation antigen test that will be as resilient as possible to any future mutations."

I don't see it as "clearly" as you.

I think the most likely scenario is that the virus is given endemic status. ie we live with it, which using Flu as the example template, means an annual jab for the vulnerable (over 60's?) and then the use of Anti-Virals for those who are badly affected. Test don't really figure in that outcome. The world will work in concert to agree to this to remove testing from Travel. I think this will happen in the next 3-6 months

What will give LFT a shot in the arm would be a new mutation that is actually more harmful to a wider age group, and I have to say, disappointing as today's outcome has so far been, I don't wish or want that outcome under any circumstance.

Sorry "then its a 10% rise from the 118p"
should have said 15%

so far so good,128p/129p is the next (small)target and as it s relatively close it may not mean that much but after the gradual retracement over the last couple of months it would be a positive sign that the market would recognise I think.

If & when that is superceded then it would look to test the 135p/137p recent highs.

Again, that's not very far away from 129p but often its small targets that are easy to ignore but if it does go that way then its a 10% rise from the 118p I noted last week and that's not nothing (well, it isn't to me.)

No, Bladey, no offence taken, (Didn't see anything to take offence at)

I guess all I am hinting at, is that CEO's always will be very positive at an interview (what else are they going to do?), but it can lead to over excitement and perhaps giving an over optimistic view to current and would be investors.

I have for some years just ignored what they say and only use RNS's as a basis for an accurate update and even they have chequered record!

Still, I have long since separated the SP from the company and by and large have no interest in the company itself.

Its just when you find a decent BB like this its difficult sometimes to maintain that discipline. :0))

bitl, "More odd that they enjoy being correct over losing money. This exposes a personality controlled by jealousy."

Except I tried my best to highlight risks at the time and sold down appropriately. I never hold more than I can comfortably afford to lose and stated on many occasions over many months that it is AVA600k only now.

Lots of investments go "wrong" its the nature of the beast. What BB's like these can do is to discuss various scenario's and options to help less experienced investors at least be aware of what can happen.

It is not over for AVCT at all, as we know, it just means that for the foreseeable future the LFT is on the back burner and AVA6k is front and centre.

At least we know where the market values AVCT without LFT income and its pretty much what some thought, 80-90p. However it may drop further or it could bounce, right now, who knows?

But I do think it brings into sharp focus ,not so much a cash raise being necessary, but when. The market will want clarity on that as soon as possible, but will have to wait for the business update, whenever that is.

I have always thought sooner than later, but there is always the possibility of undisclosed milestone payments being better than expected. And of course if we get a better than expected AVA update then, while it won't stop more cash being necessary, it will likely ensure it being successfully placed, although at what price I currently have no idea.

Bladey: "...aside from seeing Helium bubbles in an adjacent lake. (too soon?)"

You Betcha.....

amin, (imo) your remark is just an example of confirmation bias.

I know I have referred a couple of time to HE1 and a lot of posters here were in that stock, and that CEO, made similar supa- encouraging remarks about the "certainty" of success and it failed.

The "good" news would be that the market has discounted that remark.

The genuine good news (again just my opinion), was the commercial DD being undertaken on one of the 3 deals in the pipeline (wasn't it 4 a little while ago?). That suggests the deal is done subject to confirmatory results of expected returns and therefore should be quite soon (4-6 weeks?)

Anyway, its all our own opinions and one is no better than any other so GL.

I don't know whether to be encouraged by the "champagne on ice" remark or holding my head in despair.

He either knows categorically oil is there in which case fantastic, or he is just hopeful/expectant, in which case don't make such a remark.

There is too much history of CEO's over-egging their companies for them still to do this.

I don't know what view to take but just wished he had kept his mouth shut.

Yes, you did SD, I remember reading your post.

My view too is that given the relative strength of the SP during that sell off that it bodes well for general market confidence in the up-coming results.

Thanks again for your posts.

SD, what do you think? Do you see Polygon mopping up more shares?

Cheers in advance.