Member Info for wyndrum

I understand I think Diago, you were putting through a hypothesis that could contradict the obvious correlation.

Covid is not a particularly fatal disease. It largely attacks vulnerable people who either have severe co-morbidities or have weakened immune systems which deteriorate with age.

Children are very unlikely to die from covid, its vanishingly small. Many, many multiples more of children unfortunately are killed every year in car accidents for instance.

San Diago, (just while we ait for the news to be released), its a bit of a stretch in your interpretation. Obviously this is a harmful disease and in some cases fatal, although most fatalities have been linked with other co-morbidity issues.

I am not wishing to downplay covid but I felt that Skips was very alarmist in his/her posts and exaggerating way beyond what was/ is happening and has happened thus far.

oh, and just a get out of jail caveat....my explanation is based on a "most likely" outcome.

I can't predict the future nor can anyone, its always an "odds" game.

(see, thats why we never are "wrong"with TA... ) :0))

Here's my explanation:

the SP has recently oscillated between 3.65 and 4.4p

The market (buyers and sellers), see this as value at 3.65p all the way up to 4.4p and then decide it is over valued and sell.

Therefore it will take some new news to make buyers who previously thought 4.4p was too much to pay to re-evaluate it and decide now, that 4.4p and above, represents good value and start buying at higher levels

(New news may be a rumour as well as actual news)

This is how actual news and fairly obviously through chart patterns, represents pretty clearly using the above example, how it allows people to use TA to time and exit and entry positions.

This is why TA and and fundamental analysis are so closely linked. They never work independently of each other (how could they).

The conundrum here I guess, is the emotional expectation and wish to to see the stock be at a higher price for no other reason than a paper profit.

But if the SP were 6p say, would you be selling at 6p? If the answer is no, then so what?

I said in a previous post, people buy in much further up the line, not wishing to pay a higher price for something that is very forecastable such as for instance, Spuding. Why wait for that when the rig is only about 3 or so days away from its site and its got a whole 30m of water depth to negotiate in a calm sea before it Spuds?

Its a non event, it was always going to be a non-event.

The stock now is now at the critical stage. results due in the next 2 weeks or so. There may be some last minute gamble plays but the situation right now will be the same as to the minute before results are released, so you might as well get in now at this "lower" price.

If everybody does that then there is little impetus to take the SP up further over the next 2 weeks.

Skips:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/averageageofthosewhohaddiedwithcovid19

(UK average life expectance is 81.52)

I didn't think you were SGF, you have a different approach to me and clearly on balance it works for you and thats all that counts.

(HE1: I figured that was the case too, the only thing that gives me pause for thought is that why didn't they simply, immediately, order a bigger rig asap rather than all this extra seismic malarky expense.)

Anyway, roll on ADV

We have all been there DBD,

I know I go on and on and on about it, but this game is really played between the ears and its tough, really tough, to stay detached when you get on the right side of a big win and want just a bit more out of it .......

Thats a great return SGF .

But here's another trait of successful traders, we are risk-averse. We don't like high risk stocks.

Also I don't care about percentages, just the profit. (As long as I clear what I aim to each week, then I am happy).

(Did you get caught on HE1?)

(And yes we certainly do not view a rise after we have exited a stock as a loss)

I have successfully traded ADV thus far selling out and buying back at a lower price and adding on dips. mainly through boredom it has to be said......

SGF: "I know traders will always focus on their gains and ignore their bad calls"

No we don't.

Money management is as important as deciding which stock with what chart pattern should be chosen.

The "problem" with short term trading (anywhere between a few minutes to a few weeks) is that it requires a tremendous amount of self-discipline and emotional detachment from the stock to be successful.

Very few have it or can do it and that's why they fail ,rather the "system" itself not working.

The very fact that you may have experience of some "traders" not telling you about their failures is simply symptomatic of an emotional failing on their part in refusing to fess up, and that "emotion" probably was the cause of their mistake in the first place.

Traders don't usually take large position in small stocks that are illiquid for exactly the reasons you highlight.

I jumped in here in october because it should have been all over by end of November. Here we are, months behind my schedule which has resulted in missed opportunities elsewhere. and what has the SP done? just gone side ways.

Drives me mad. :0)

Every small stock I have dabbled in (as this is a hobby now), has gone the same way. Missed deadlines due to over exuberant Ceo's tying up my money for weeks and months on end.

Its a miracle I make anything at all.

Thats why I have no interest in the company, just the SP. its the be all and end all

Thats another load off..... :0))

DBD, sort of, but you could just decide the day before a company's results that its worth buying on expectation of a good update. doesn't have to be a 5m candle, full on TA thing.....

Anyway, my point was two weeks is actually a fair amount of time to a trader.

Really Marik? "it's time to thank Ophidian, Monkshood, ab8dct and Bella6532 etc. it's been very informative to see others on the same page re: antibody use."

In what way has that esoteric thread helped?

Has it moved forward anyones idea of what comes next? should they buy in now based on the exchanges?, should they simply wait? and wait for how long?

Do we know, having read all that, how AVCT are going to respond and under what timescale? Do we know exactly how the antibodies work on the strip or is there a certain amount of assumption and guesswork?

Perhaps knowing that antibodies screw up the sensitivity would have been worth knowing before the RNS yesterday rather than today.

Yeah, I get that Jez. (Obviously I don't know the character you refer to).

But for instance today on results/update Dunelm is up over 5% so if you bought in yesterday happy days.

People who trade have opportunities every day and its very common for any stock, no matter what their size, to move 5% or more in a day (giving lie to the "elephants can't gallop" theory)

So 2 weeks actually is quite a time to tie money up for if you trade.(or at least its not as perhaps unreasonable or maybe dumb as it sounds)

Hi Andy, well unfortunately this is how you (and we all) learn ie the hard way.

Theses BB's are actually pretty useless in helping newbies. The people who know the subject can't really help, because it makes no difference to the outcome. So we can spout how great the tech is, how good the BoD are etc etc, but none of it makes any difference to the outcome. Plus basically they are echo chambers and anyone who takes a different view (ie bearish) will be hounded by some and these views will be dismissed as deliberately misleading and deceitful. So don't expect any balance on BB's.

Small bio-pharmas are probably the riskiest of all plays, but you would not think it from reading here and the £137 per share forecasts.

Plus there is a world of difference between the SP and the company (any company). Timing is everything.

There are 2 things at play, one is the company and one is wanting to make money on buying and selling.

The company is fairly irrelevant if the object is to make money.

If you are going to go on fundamentals then you need to understand balance sheets, various ways of how companies are valued etc etc so as to recognise an undervalued company.

But whatever system you use, I would recommend you have a plan.

What price you want to buy in at (and why,) what price you will sell at if it goes up, ie your target. What price you will sell at if you are wrong and the SP goes down, so you can calculate the potential loss and there knowing these 2 figures allows you to see what capital you are risking (loss) for the the reward, (selling out at a profit) and a timescale you expect it to happen in.

These very basic parameters should be figured out before you purchase the stock.

And the biggest lesson of all is to protect capital. You have to stay in the game.
So Never, Ever, Ever, Ever, bet more than you can COMFORTABLY afford to lose. (you will though)

Good luck

You are very kind rxdav,

but I am not "incredibly knowledgeable" as you think although I can see why you might think so based on your intellect.

I do construct longer posts as it allows others to understand my reasoning as to why I come to the conclusions i do.

Lots of people have in fact, claimed to be bored to death by my posts and I imagine they are the same people who did not follow my lead when I sold down from 260p onwards, locking in much profit.

I have actually repeated myself as the decline in the AVCT SP has been going on just about unabated for about 9 months and I routinely highlighted the reason why i thought it was an increasingly risky play from a SP pov.

Thanks again though, for the taking the time to highlight me specifically.

Skippy,
How many are dying from covid as opposed to with covid?

What is the average age of of people dying with/from covid?

What is the average age of death in the UK?

How many people die a day in the UK on average?

What is the chance of dying from covid if you are under 50?

(I have used dying deliberately as you mentioned its now a game of russian roulette)

(Also I use 50 as I guess most parents collecting their kids are 50 or under)

The days not done yet

KnC: just do a share raise I guess?

Dave, "If (and I accept its a big if - but maybe not an improbable one) our "next generation" test comes on line in the next 2 or three months and with the appropriate fanfare maybe there are grounds for a great deal of hope for it still?"

Maybe, but given it would seem no test detects omicron at the outset, the implication is that we have let this rip (deliberately or not is irrelevant) through the country.

Look at the outcomes. If this (hopefully) continues to be for the vast majority mild, and the benchmark would be hospital admissions followed by ICU beds followed by fatalities, then having a test that detects it is probably a bit after the horse has bolted.

This event may be used by modellers as the template for what happens when you don't do anything to control the virus and it may therefore in fact, show the cost/benefit of testing at a very fundamental level.

If AVCT can produce a test that covers any variant then it might be game on again assuming that the status of the virus warrants it, and is not downgraded to endemic, hopefully a more deadly variant does not emerge.

Ultimately, that has to be the end game. Globally we have to "live" with this like we would the Flu which lets not forget, kill's many thousands here in the UK every year, let alone globally.

Going forward, if AVCT iron out all the problems and glitches now, then when the next one comes around the speed of deployment will be up to the task. But that's for another day.

We are approaching year 3 of this crisis. No expert I have listened to expects this level of pandemic status to last more than a few years from the outset. (2-5 I think were the broad estimates.)

Yes, fairly balanced precis. Looking at the SP action over the last few weeks, I don't expect any material move until an official update regarding the viability of the well is released. 11 days to go (but I bet it takes longer....) :0))

Unfortunately its more likely to fall further than rebound. The fall yesterday was not based on a rumour but actual news so until new share supporting news comes in ir is released its difficult to see any substantial move up yet.

From a general market perspective, whether we like it or not, the LFD was meant to be a HUGE driver of income. That has been removed for now, leaving the company largely (some would say soley), dependent on AVA6000. The valuation for a company with the rate of cash burn it has, is very high. As a result you start to see how important AVA is. There will be a fear that if one arm of the tech has proved to be less successful than hoped, then will that affect other sides of the business?

We know that does not necessarially follow but its the SP we are talking about, not the company and sentiment from the less well informed

I am sure by now most here will have decided on their course of action but I (fwiw) would not top up yet.

This has gone from a sure fire, slam dunk, revenue increasing company to a all-or- nothing outfit with the risk that that implies.

Again you may disagree but the question is, not what you think, but what do you think the market thinks?