Member Info for wyndrum

Brill!! Good timing!

well at 265 its at a support but 250 is the stronger one.

Currently there is no sign of a reversal so if were me (NOT ADVICE) I would put half in now and wait and see if 250 does hove into view and the put the other half then?

Anyway... this is not your first Rodeo! good luck :0)

DGU,

Its not completely hard and fast when its falling but this the logic:

But why did I choose 10p as the entry point in the first place?

I buy at 10p because I think the SP will rise. If it starts to fall it means I was wrong. So I need to get out as my premise for buying at that price was incorrect.

As you may know I go by support lines and I try to buy in as close to a support line as possible so that if it falls through this line as it indicates it will probably fall further, then I want to minimise potential loss.

So, lest say the support line is 9.7p and I get in at 10p, my stop will be at 9.6p or maybe 9.5p. (There is always a bit of cat & mouse with MM's and stops) I am risking 5% of my capital If I get the trade wrong.

As a result when I try to gauge where the SP might go to I would look for a MINIMUM of 3 x the risk, which in this example is 1.5p gain or 15% (risking 5% loss for potential 15% gain = 3-1 risk/reward..

So small spreads help a lot in minimising risk.

The problem is that with small stocks (and big ones too), on unexpected (bad) news the SP can fall much more and you can't get out until its much lower than you wanted. Ouch....

You can't do anything about "unexpected" news but you can do something about "expected" news:

And using DG as a great example: There was expected news due (the TU ). So, rather than wait for news that could not be forecast with any degree of certainty and using past SP action history, he took his stake off the market BEFORE the news was released.

That is good and sound money management.

I always look at a trade as a single transaction. I buy in at 10p I get out at 11p. it then rises to 15p and I decide that at 16p to get in again as I think there is more to come.

I am not remotely bothered I missed the 11p-15p rise. That was then, this new trade at 16p, is now.

That's why i don't care about the company.. Its too easy to get sucked into that particular company's narrative and convince yourself you know more than the market does etc etc..

You do have divorce all emotional content from the decision making process, hence the plan has to be fairly rigid, otherwise once you make an exception here, or another one there, you don't actually have a plan at all.

(And just to state the obvious: whatever plan is used it has to have a history of working and therefore generating profit more often than failing. In other words, it can't be arbitary.)

I don't know if any are interested but money management is as an important part as any chart pattern in TA

This is because you can't expect to get every trade right.

The method I use (its personal so it might not suit everyone's thinking) is the following:

Say I invest £1000 (for simple calcs) in a company at 10p per share (10,000 shares.)

When it gets to 30% profit I sell 30% (3000 shares at .13p) realising £390.
When it gets to 50% profit I sell another 30% (of the original stake) 3000 shares at .15p releasing a further £450.

I now have banked £840 of my original stake but still have 4000 shares (or 40% ) of my original purchase
Result: I have a 40% stake for a 16% risk (£1000 -£840 = £160

If I like, I can let it run or depending what happens thereafter, reduce or remove the remaining stake but it minimises risk and helps preserve capital.

(It does not have to be 30% and 50% levels of profit (it could be 3 and 5% level of profit but I would take the same percentages (30 % ) each time the first two targets were set. On smaller expected profits its a bit more nuanced to be fair, but you get the idea)

I used higher levels of profit gain because with EVE if it comes good, the gains should be substantial, and there will be a time when people will try and figure out when to take some off the table, imagine?

Anyway, its part of my plan when I go into a high risk stock:

Just chewing the fat while time passes. Not advice so please DYOR etc

As I say Dr, I think vaccines will be reduced to the over 60's and other particularly vulnerable groups.

But when you consider costs:

14.6m people go go to watch premiere league football (not counting all the other leagues and non leagues) Then you have night clubs, and then you have restaurants, then you have music venues, then you have horse racing......

It will cost less to vaccinate then to test I think.

I agree the data is suggesting that the vaccines have had limited affect in catching and passing on the virus but the next covid vaccine almost certainly will be better in those respects and again, its always going to come back to outcomes.

If, once vaccinated you reduce the chance of hospitalisation dramatically, then that saves a huge amount of money to the health system.

So, imo, its not actually about covid per se anymore (and has not been for some time), its about how ill it makes people. That's the key metric everyone is looking at.

Thing is Dr, if it is all about outcomes as I suspect then a couple of things:

The mass vaccination program was an emergency reaction to the unknown elements of the virus.

As it is becoming more established as a virus that targets the vulnerable elderly and immune deficient groups, so i would expect vaccines in future to target just them (like the annual flue jab.)

As for the fit and healthy certainly testing would help them, in principle, from getting or passing it on but if it has almost no effect on them, then whats the point?

And although this still is never discussed here one of the key "problems" in mass testing, is the cost.

Why would healthy young people pay £5 or more every time they want to go out for an illness that will have littles or no affect on them? (put aside any "moral" issues and just try and understand how younger minds work.)

It is generally accepted that a third of carriers are asymptomatic. Are they going to take a test when they feel perfectly well? and if we only take a test when we present symptoms, well its probably a bit late then for the preceding 2 or 3 days we have been out and about.

I understand the inconvenience of having 2 of your staff off work, but I can see a time (in the near future), when we won't take time off just because we have covid. It will be just like a cold inasmuch as if you have a very mild reaction you will come into work and if you are quite poorly you will take a couple of days off. Exactly how it is with annual colds now. You come into work with them, spread it all about and some catch it worse then you do but its (socially) accepted.

If we deviate from that then society does not function as well and that will have knock on effects to the economy and the wealth of the country to keep services funded as they are even at present.

There are no easy solutions to this.

Dr. At the risk of responding to a question you already know the answer to:

Covid is not expected to have an "end".

Therefore it is only and all about outcomes. (as it has always been).

Vaccines & boosters have reduced dramatically deaths and hospitalisation allowing health systems to not be overwhelmed.

At the same time anti-virals are starting to come on stream and will accelerate in number no doubt over the next 12 months to combat further those who do have a poor reaction.

At the same time is is also likely that vaccines will become more efficient combatting this virus and its variants.

The govts of the world have been heavily criticised here on this BB but perhaps their route out has not been quite as flawed as some suggested

Neut,

This is no skin off my nose but given some here get quite over-excited when anybody dares to offer a alternative, less than ramptastic post it might be worth realising that MM's post at about 70 recs, is based on:
"I think .."
"revenue that should..."
" I hope..."
" I believe..."
"As such, I think..."
"I believe that – assuming..... " (double assumption)
" yes I think it’ll be possible...."
"IF management can pull it off,..."

All of what Miles is guessing might come true, but he has no greater insight than anyone else. And thus far it has been somewhat off target, but that's ok, he is perfectly entitled to his opinion.

But of course its also perfectly acceptable here to guess and speculate, but only if that points to a positive outcome, but apparently you have to be a troll or multiple account user, or some deceitful individual, simply for not being as positive.

This BB's really don't help the small investor. It skews debate to just one side and gives no balance even in the face of a 70% decline in the SP.

And that's dangerous because it can easily feel as though there is little or no risk and therefore lead to "topping up" and over commitment.

That's why I always though sujood as more dangerous than the silly comments he made. He was constantly encouraging people to over commit and that's the worse mistake any investor can make. But hey, he was just a bit of fun, wasn't he....

Anyway, MM's comments are fine but to get the recs he has suggests there are some very blinkered readers here. (Thats my opinion of course that will probably be not tolerated...)

Hi D,

What a ****ty week eh? :0((

I don't know how much small Pi's drive the EVE SP. I normally work on the basis that the few big percentage holders move the price and PI's don't affect it, but its such a small cap company so maybe?

I think its tough on such a small company for the MM's to keep an orderly market and we have seen how quickly the SP can rise on a rumour, so who knows, it sounds to me as though you are a major shareholder in your own right!

You know my views on CEO's statements, i'm not a fan and I am not as confident as you thats its " undoubtedly, in-disputably 'heading in the right direction'"

It just seems too hard to generate sales and therefore profits.

EVE is getting to be a household name but where is the sales growth to go along with the brand recognition?

It just seems to me that they want to be a premium brand in a mass market and thats a hard trick to pull off.

I can't see where their USP is against all the other Bed in a box competitors. So how do you charge a premium for the same thing?

I am just struggling to see where the turnaround is because the current trajectory is not good enough, which is muddling along at best.

So that leaves major cost cutting and whats left to do down that road?

Long slog ahead at best.....(imo dyor etc etc)

its not great unfortunately but the chart has to go back about 18 months to get a read, and that's a long time for the chart.

Its just below a support of 2.5p currently but so close to it that I would not read too much of it "breaking" this line yet. But this is the big problem with EVE and TA, the spread is so large that if I waited for instance to sell if it fell to 2.35p it might well be a selling price of 2p and that is far to far away from a confirmed break down.

So I can read the chart in theorectical way but I could not act on it due to the spread.

If it stays or falls ever so slightly from here (2.45p) then the next support is 1.5p-1.7p

The march update will only confirm what this update said, except it will add "sales are holding up or improving over the last 6 weeks" or "declining"

My guess is it will be yet another "steady as she goes".....

apart from a TO (and there is no evidence at all that one is or might come), then I can't see explosive growth coming to quickly propel the SP. It hasn't in the last 2 years, so I don't see why the next 2 will be any different.

That means any hiccup in revenue might have a disproportionate effect on the SP.

It just looks like a slow grind and if no TO does materialise then taking the company private again must be on the cards to save money?

His heart condition and the long time drink and drug abuse probably did not help either.

But he lived his life the way he wanted to which is more than most can say.

its the radio silence on FDA approval status.

This is overdue, and every day gets further overdue,. As a result the market will get increasingly nervous that in the absence of any update from AGL that there are potential/problem delays.

I am not aware that these reasonably frequent and positive RNS are revenue generating. Therefore the cash reserves are also being drained for longer than was anticipated or at least flagged to the market originally when the FDA approval was meant to be concluded one way or the other in Hy2 last year.

The latest tweak from the FDA only helps fuel the uncertainty of where AGL is in the whole process. (Remember it was all meant to happen within the first half of last year.

Given the delay was desk top info required rather than new trials, I am at a loss to know quite why the FDA is taking as long as it has having been give the info they wanted about 6 months ago.

Originally the FDA said covid was taking up the majority of their time but even so this is dragging on with no material update from AGL and will continue to hinder any material capital appreciation (unless some revenue enhancing deal is announced.)

Just my opinion dyor etc etc

fwiw , dai I think any price around here looks ok in terms of a retrace. Ideally any thing below 12p but given the spread I would say buy up to 12.5P?

Just my opinion and not advice. I did however top up just now.

I am not expecting it to move around much today and those with better nerves might hang out in the hope for a bit more but in the great scheme of things if this works out. .5p is neither here nor there.

Dyor

Thanks UN,

It just got me thinking that understandably the BB's of the stock in question are (over) enthusiastic) for the "their" company to be a success and will minimise downside risk and really only talk about the upside.

But experience has shown me it rarely comes off so I started to see if the markets valuation was better than the future expectations of the acolytes which led me to my made-up metric, but I am defo going to use it to "calculate" what I think will be a more realistic chance of the upside being reached.

I had changed my stock picks over the last 18 months or so to look at aim and the ones I have been attracted to are all potential multibaggers. (Eve being one). So still using charts to time entry and exit I was prepared to wait longer to see if greater returns could be had rather than the 1-10% over 1-5 days on the ftse 350, as an objective that I used to previously target.

One of the conclusions I have come to is an understanding of risk reward.

If a stock (eve for example) is 2.5P and the general expectation is for it to very quickly be re-rated to 10p say, then it seems a no brainer, or at least a very good risk reward.

However if that's the case why isn't it already 10p or close to it? Clearly the market (cool unemotional sage heads that they are) see it DRAMATICALLY differently. So if you think its worth 10p with one final push and its currently 2.5p that's 4 times the current price.

By my new metric. that means its 4-1 against it happening or 75% chance of not making it. (doesn't mean it will go bust but at least it puts into perspective the odds the market is putting on success.)

At the very least it should work as a brake on over enthusiasm and possible over commitment.

Certainly I have had 2 or 3 in this last 12 months which have failed to deliver as expected and had they, the SP would be many multiples of where it was prior to "bad news" causing very large falls in the SP.

So its taken me a while but if you think Eve should be even 25p and its on course to get there in the next 12 months or so, then by my reckoning there is a 90% chance it wont based on the current SP (10-1)

This is my latest rule of thumb for high risk stocks.

It will inform the amount of capital i tie up in these stocks going forward.

Just thought I'd share my latest crack pot idea.

Dai, the RSI is in the 90's so its defo got to retrace but if there is an RSI tomorrow it could spike further.

I was thinking of selling some at 12,5p today and getting back in lower but the spread put me off. and I am glad it has! but while I am reticent in selling I am looking to find funds to carry on building a stake whenever the drop comes.

The patience is admirable but I would question CC's performance personally if you think that is a key indicator.

Her job or at least a big part of it is to increase shareholder value. She has other bods to actually run the company

The original lockdown gave a good lift and impetus to sales that is just about being sustained but the overheads are still relative to the sales, very high. It feels to me on the figures that it hasn't really kicked on from there.

It would be good to know what fixed overheads are so a stab at revenue growth could then be translated to bottom line profit.

I guess it B/E circa around £28m?. Thereafter every £m increase in sales would be worth what to the bottom line?.

Given it was what 11% over 2 years?, then perhaps a 20% increase in sales to start producing a couple of Mil profit? but how long will that take?

France looks to me to have moved from pretty important to essential as its difficult to see 20% growth coming from the UK&I markets soon enough. And irt will need to be explosive as its from a small base.

I liked the job adverts as it came across as a funky, "good" employer" but I hope the culture is not too much on "fun" and thy are missing a trick elsewhere on getting the most from their employee's.

I get that many here will still be content to wait for another 12 months of sales and updates (which is perfectly fine), but the market's patience is at present, in short supply.

Due to a likely lack of reported news now, its difficult seeing much improvement in the SP and I guess, it could drift down as some holders get bored waiting

Yet again i think it an example of divorcing the SP from the company. The problem is, its the SP that is key & King.

Just my thoughts but if a take over happens it could and is likely to, come out of nowhere very suddenly. Personally that would be my best bet of what will happen over the next 6-12 months.

If its down to EVE alone, then the long slog that seemed likely 2 years ago looks to being fulfilled now.

Face mask make little or no difference, a great level of reported Covid deaths have been with covid rather than from it.

All society will live with it and while testing will be the biggest casualty from this move to endemic status anti-virals then become the naturally first line of defence for people who are hospitalised with it.

Fair enough Skippy, but if they don't know the date the news is to be released it could have been last week and they would not have had time to sell this latest tranche.

So, if no news next week, more selling? It just seems arbitary as to what they are doing about their holding except its not of course. I just don't understand it.

So what' s Polar's objective now its reached 200p, (again), just keep selling until they hold no stock at all?

If they don't hurry they are going to get burned terribly when the good news comes out and the SP rockets!

Its all very odd....