Member Info for wyndrum

Noobs, I have not been in EVE for some time.

Applied it to ADV, (although thats a bit more complicated as I was also adding at various stages) and HE1 just recently.

I had not formulated the plan for AVCT at the time but did ok on the big rise from 100p to 275p and selling on the way down.
It was actually AVCT that made me think this through and crystalise the plan, as it was the first time I have been involved in a sure fire, can't miss, multi, multi bagger stock (according to the well researched posters on the BB....)

I had a slightly different but similar plan on bigger cap stocks that I expected to move less in % terms, but wanted to see if I could get better returns holding longer on greater potential rising stocks.

I do work from a shorter timescale than LTB&H and indeed so far my experience of it has been poor. So I am quite happy to unwind my positions on these much more speculative stocks as the price dictates and move back to the ftse 250 and look for the 5-10% gains over a day or few.

As its just a hobby now and as I don't over commit, its not really that big an issue, but I find it good practise to use the above "rules".

This is a system I use for high risk stocks particularly. Its a personal one so may not suit anybody else:

I use it when there is a chance of substantial gains:

Say I invest £1000 (for simple calcs) in a company at 10p per share (10,000 shares.)

When it gets to 30% profit I sell 30% (3000 shares at 13p) realising £390.
When it gets to 50% profit I sell another 30% (of the original stake) 3000 shares at 15p releasing a further £450.

I now have banked £840 of my original stake but still have 4000 shares (or 40% ) of my original purchase
Result: I have a 40% stake for a 16% risk (£1000 -£840 = £160

If I like, I can let it run or depending what happens thereafter, reduce or remove the remaining stake but it minimises risk and helps preserve capital.

I think the problem is that so many are chasing the pot of gold called a multi-bagger. They exist of course but many fail:
So this is how I look at risk on a high risk stock:

If a stock is 10P and the general expectation is for it to very quickly be re-rated to 50p say, then it seems a no brainer, or at least a very good risk reward.

However if that's the case why isn't it already 50p or close to it? Clearly the market (cool unemotional sage heads that they are) see it DRAMATICALLY differently. So if you think its worth 50p with one final push and its currently 10p that's 5 times the current price.

By my new metric. that means its 5-1 against it happening or 80% chance of not making it. (doesn't mean it will go bust but at least it puts into perspective the odds the market is putting on success.)

At the very least it should work as a brake on over enthusiasm and possible over commitment.

Make of the above what you will (DYOR etc etc)

GLA

NDN, you are too concerned imo with what an unknown and unknowable bunch of posters here may or may not do.

You seem concerned to the point of obsessed on their investing welfare. Yet these people may not (and probably don't even) exist.

For every buyer there is a seller and vive versa. We can't know what any of their motivations for their decisions are and its pointless (imo) to make groundless assumptions that you do.

Its also pretty patronising to think these adults can't assume risk and make judgments on reading these types of BB's.

For instance I think anybody who puts much store if any, on a CEO interview needs their head examined, but its not up to me to tell everybody not to talk about what the CEO enthusiastically might have said.

Each to his own. DYOR etc etc

NDN, its not us that creates the volatility, All us traders do is try to profit off others emotions (sentiment).

Sometimes we win, sometimes we don't. They say its often better to travel than arrive but not for us......

Its all about the destination, but it has to be at the right time. No point in getting to the station just after the train has left if you know what I mean.....

ND, this is what traders enjoy, trying to divine the workings of the puzzle!

This is absolutely the point.

Most traders are not in for the long term, so its all about timing. And if you buy in just before a big move, well, as Trek so accurately says "“ You gotta enjoy these moments else what’s the point!”

Hi Trek,

I think you are right in the de-risk analysis but I think, due to the "any day now" RNS dropping , is that has been underway over the last 10 days or so amd amybe as more or less run its course.

I can't put my finger on it, but this small move today seems more significant... but its just as likely to be wishful thinking on my part..... :0)

It looks ready to pop. Probably confirmational bias, but ... I don't know... I thinks its very soon.....

just my opinion. although I have backed it with an increased holding... but each to his own and never over-commit.

BlackCat, how many times exactly do I have to say I don't predict anything?

How many times exactly, do I have to say that TA is an odds based approach? It tries to identify what's most likely to happen next, not what will.

TA will not predict unexpected dramatic news, But neither will FA, so I don't quite see the fixation on everyone saying TA did not see the drop as though somehow there was an alternative.

But if you really want to get picky then an investor using TA looking AVCT would look at the chart and see the trading range it was in for many months and the multiple times the support was under pressure and could have concluded quite reasonably, that they would wait until there was a break out of the TR on the upside before committing funds. This would get them in higher but also remove the risk of the fall.

TA aims to help preserve capital by being risk adverse and putting in various "rules" to facilitate that goal.

So it will forego bigger % gains for potentially less risk, compensated by more, smaller, profitable trades

Right now it seems on the back of the support at 73p its worth a punt as I think it more likely to go up than down, But if AVCA6000 should fail then its all over, so my stake in AVCT represents the worse case outcome and it will not affect me much financially if that outcome is realised.

Obviously I don't think it will be or I would not bother at all with AVCT. If all goes well there will be ample opportunity to divert yet more funds to it and ride the up turn.

Its telling to me that PL keeps harping on about 2 stocks that he thinks personally hurt me financially but bypasses the fact that on this BB, I have done ok. (and fwiw ADV was a terrible outcome for all over there and is an example of how people can get carried away by doing "research" just like this BB, but still have a disastrous outcome. )

Further, as HE1 is mentioned I picked up on it and got in at 8.8p a couple of weeks ago so I have been fortunate to recoup much of the ADV losses already. That should be on no interest to anyone here but its not me that keeps bringing it up.

I am not recommending anybody does anything, just offering my opinion on the likely moves of the SP using TA.

Ok Hunkey we fundamentally disagree on what charts do (see what i did there)

TA has a set of "rules" to ride sentiment so when it spikes up you profit and sell before it drops back. It uses a rational approach to profit from the emotional response of most investors.

It therefore looks to the short term whereas Fundamental research will try to unearth under valued stocks and patiently wait for the value to be realised over typically a longer period of time.

Both systems have their limitations. and neither are fool proof

DGU, I think you are starting to sound a bit desperate?

EVE are just a Mattress company with various add -ons to try and bolster sales of the main product. This was done because of the lack of profit from the main product as was the invention of the "Sleep Wellness" concept. (which is imo, BS by the way. Good idea to try and differentiate the Brand, so i am not knocking the marketing concept, but really what does it mean compared to any other mattress maker? They don't want you to sleep well?)

We have been sleeping every night since forever. Its not that complicated and is pretty well researched for any reason why someone suffers from sleep deprivation.

I have mentioned this before but I don't see the USP. I don't see significant Barriers To Entry.

They are aiming at the premium end of the market but need to sell to the masses. Thats a difficult trick to pull off. Premium product/volume market. Apart from Apple I don't know who else really succeeds at it.

Eve periodically discount there products in sales throughout the year. I think the cost of that kills them.

They are pinning everything on the "Brand" but i don't think people care enough about a brand when it comes to a
dull product like a mattress that nobody can see and marvel over and there are already well established premium brands out there doing the same thing.

Its tough as we have seen and continue to see.

The business model was based on taking a large share of a fragmented market. Its still tantalisingly just out of reach.

Monkey, so your research told you the SP was going to go down 70%?

(TA represents sentiment actually)

Each to his own

Fish,

Who knows, its still a speculative binary stock. The key is not to over commit and then it really starts to not matter what the result is. Once the individual is in that happy place then its far easier to be objective and make better decisions.

Greed & Fear normally does it every time though....

Good luck

Fish,

Given none of iu know its only going to be conjecture but fwiw (and its not much), I think it was down to money.

You don't know exactly what the conditions will be several thousand meter's down so in an effort to save money on an over sized rig, they went for what they thought would just about do it, allowing more money for more drills in other areas.

So i would think it was a joint decision between DM and the Rig people that almost by the looks of things paid off, but then failed at the very last hurdle.

Shame....

Strangy,

I was not talking down to you , it was not my attention. I was aiming for a sarcastic tone.

I intimated your tone to be dismissive given the brevity of your post and the inaccuracy of using the word "predicted" at me.

I offer up my view on SP movement based on TA. You will note that I put it in the title and also for people who don't follow or agree with TA, to ignore it.

I actually assume or predict nothing. I wait to see how the SP action unfolds and change tack accordingly.

When I look at AVCT's prospects from a fundamental stand point, my views changes as the info available changes.

You however in your post have assumed (your word) my reaction before I have even replied.

As for me being " relentless in not stopping and trying to prove that you are vindicating your opinion and assumptions on a regular basis." That is only because I am relentlessly miss-quoted (as you have done) in your post, to being attributed to views and opinions that I don't hold. or never said.

I will say this for the millionth time.

I thought AVCT was missing the boat on mass testing due to the delay in getting a test out. As the delay continued I thought there was a problem most likely with the test or in production. Thats it.

Because, as it turned out, I was correct before it was obvious to all here, the personal abuse started in an effort to shut me up.

Remember Myles wanted me banned (where is the SP now?)

So given the SP has been in decline for 9 months then that is a negative result so therefore my posts reflecting on the decline are in step with that. It would be a fairer thing to say that I was constantly negative if the SP kept rising. But that has not been the case.

You might do well to remember that when I thought SP rises were likely prior to the ATH, I posted that then too. (So not so negative then, eh?)

I use TA, others use different methods. Thats fine, we all can choose what to do and when. I have no beef with that. Why would I?

But as I am constantly attacked I am therefore forced to constantly defend myself, which I do, which is tedious for all. But its not me that starts or ever continues the abuse. Remember that would you.

And the other thing to remember for all the dot joining and people advertising jobs and links to related companies and road shows and every bit of data that most here joy collating, none of it predicted a 70% fall in the SP did it?

So far, most others have not been correct so forgive me for not giving their views too much weight.

Hi SD,

The SP action has periods during the day of fast activity in around a 1 or 2 p range so has little chart impact but sometimes you see a relevance.

Are you seeing any patterns presently?

Cheers

Strangy, no and if you bothered to read that BB you would have read that I don't "predict" anything.

Either you have a poor memory or don't read what I post and just blindly follow others comments, or have no understanding of what TA is ,but its an odds game.

I have stated that here many, many times.....

Its quite something that some here are so desperate to show how fallible I am as though that somehow has any bearing on the poor SP performance of AVCT over the last 18 months or so. The fact I have done ok out of AVCT seems to particularly gall some as well.

bitl,

It is not trolling simply to say that this is a high risk stock. This is exactly what Myles has stated.

The SP has collapsed by over 70% over the last 9 months or so.

You stated you had no idea about ADV, so to comment "Surely you can believe what you’ve just written" when you have no reference to the comparison I made seems silly.

I simply said this morning that from a chart perspective this looked promising for further gains.

How, how is that Trolling or being negative?

From there, even though I specifically asked for people who are not interested in TA not to comment, the only ones that have are not interested in TA and simply want to have ago at me. Now that's what I call Trolling.

But I don't suppose you see that, in your honest and direct way with me.

Why I am still here? I am share holder. I bought more yesterday based on the chart. What difference does it make to you?

ll, energy, clearly as you don't care what I think why did you bother starting the conversation? There was a clue in the title of thread too.

As for your "research", where exactly has that got you with this stock?

Don't tell me.... it has a lot of irons in the fire, lots of shots on goal, lots of promising technologies....LFT, Bams, Saliva test, elisa......still, all that research... never fails does it?

Your desire to be rude and spiteful towards is me is not only childish but pointless.

bitl: The fundamentals were all supa-positive on ADV so I don't quite understand your point.

except energy , if you bothered to read my posts on it then you would realise 2 things: 1 its not "my" chart and secondly I said technically it was in no mans land. (Yes, I expected it to go up but I was hardly a lone voice.)

You might also while happily dismissing TA, realise that from a fundamental analysis POV it was an absolute shocker. From the CEO who had the "champagne on ice" to all the various partners in the business, to various research papers/ brokers/pod casts etc etc.

And quite why you are rejoicing so much while at the same time having had the same experience on this stock that has also been a huge disappointment based on what blogs/brokers/ CEO 's have said over the last 18 months seems somewhat strange.

If you are just trying to be happy at my financial loss, then unfortunately, I never bet more than I can afford to lose, and had taken some profits when I was 30% up.

So yes, disappointing for sure and its a very upsetting for those who did over commit, but for me personally its part and parcel. You don't win them all. and i don't expect to either.

73p turned out to be a low that has been tested 3 times an has held under a lot of pressure so as the most recent assault on it failed again it has given a signal for some to buy at these levels. if/when the SP closes above 83.5p it will signal a likely rise to 104-106p, which from here should it take place is a healthy return.