Member Info for wyndrum

Zoom, "Explains the muted reaction to HUA, the brief initial RNS relating to omicron. When you know, you know."

Well, I didn't "know" this was the specific problem, but as I tried to explain my thinking recently, it seemed pretty obvious to me that something was not right.

This BB however, has long ceased to be where any sort of discussions of all types of scenario's can be discussed.

So, it all rests on AVA6000 and that at least looks better (using the FDA request as the only indicator that so far, so good).

That update now becomes critical.

In the meantime AS has been overtaken by events but unfortunately it follows on by so many missed deadlines as to out AVCT on the back burner now.

The next headwind will likely be cash flow. I think all eyes will be on when the shorts close.

My best guess is that in the short term (4-8 weeks)there will be an AVA6k update followed by a cash call. What the SP will be then will be entirely dependent on what the trial update exposes.

Fingers crossed chips!!

OneKnows, And treat as a hypothetical:

(demand is there but AVCT LFT isn't, yet it is available and has been for professional use of over 6 months)

Company has the best test in the world and has HUA and BUA for the whole of the EU
Many months previously it had a tie up to supply low income and poor countries with tests in a pandemic.

This company along with others in its field is accused by other scientists that it should do better and work harder and yet has never said a word in its defense.

to date there has been no update on sales from the company other to say when B/U was denied in the UK, it would make no material difference to its income.

The history of the company is that it broke off TT with one company after many months with no explanation to shareholders. It then went with another company and missed repeated deadlines to get the test mass produced.

The same company has consistently said that it would be getting validation and extra manufacturing for other parts of the world and has missed these deadlines too.

And I am the only one in this hypothetical who thinks it points to there may be problems with mass production of the test?

(you realise if there is a problem with production it explains what has "baffled" just about everybody else here on every front, from the lack of communication in PR and rebuttal to scientists criticisims to sales info and orders and more capacity being created. and the delays encountered over the last 15 months

But who knows, perhaps this was always the plan and its bang on course but it seems an odd way to go about it based on what was said previously by BoD and RNS's

well, its a good job I go from close of day prices...

The HL chart says yesterdays low was 3.65p so did not quite test the 3.6-3.62p support, but as we know intraday today it sure did! (However it did allow those who wished to trade on that support to pick up some more if they wanted to.)

The uptick today does suggest that we are now on a reversal upward trend (using the RSI pattern as confirmation).

Some might say..... ABOUT BLOODY TIME......

chips 2 things strike me here, given your strength of feeling.

If you already knew, or thought, thats how AIM works, then why put you money in an aim stock or at the very least be surprised if you think your beliefs have been realised?

Or 2, if you are in it for the long term don't look at the SP each day.

yes SI, I think events overtook us there.

I generally don't look at gaps too much as its just too inconsistent for me. There is a big difference between day trading and short term trading and the financial product being traded.

My experience was day trading bond futures and various indicators were helpful there that are not (imo) so relevant for my methodolgy on stocks now.

I have mentioned before that I am not a fan of trading stocks of any size due to the ease of MM should it happen. As a result I look to use charts now to time entry and exit.

I took some more this morning at 3.63p so was a bit miffed that it fell further but it felt to me like a tree shake. And thats the bit that I can't explain. My experience, (fwiw) suggested to me that this was not market driven, but who knows, could have been a lucky guess based on what I "want" to happen.

Your analysis of gaps is correct though, its just hard (I find) to know when to wait for a gap to be filled or decide it won't be and its a sign of strength as you said.

Its a game. isn't it? ! :0))

its turned into a bit of a round robin if you ask me....

Punty:" I don't believe we will ever see another opportunity in our lifetime that comes anywhere close to the potential of this share."

Damn... I have got at least 3 other stocks apart from this one and their BB's all say that as welll... :0))

Fruits: "it literally blows our minds." It literally doesn't.

(sorry just the pedant coming out in me).... :0))

I guessed you were Skippy to be fair,

its just that I think a lot of people have no earthly plan at all when spending colossal sums of money on stocks and it seems so basic and to be so obvious as not even worth mentioning, but I think it is.

Skippy, "I do have a plan but I probably lack the discipline to stick to it."

It never ceases to amaze me that people will pile in multiple £1000's into a stock with no idea of when or what price they are going to sell.

If you (any individual) does not have that worked out BEFORE they make the purchase then how can any risk reward be calculated?

Ultimately its a blind bet. Its like going into a bookie's, and betting on a horse in a race on a course, blindfolded.

You would not do that with a tenner, quite why anybody does that with thousands is beyond me.

fwiw I have bought on the 3.62p support

Doc, there is a world of difference between a short term trade and day trading. Plus you are assuming, with your daily movements eg, that you could buy at the bottom and get out at the top

I was referring to risk as it pertains to day traders in individual stocks not all financial instruments.

(Glad you did well with Saatchi )

Anyway, it was just an observation while we were waiting for results to come out but i guess we have all been blindsided by the RNS just out now!

Onwards and upwards!

Its not that Doc, but people who don't day trade know precious little about it. "I think it represents a relatively risk free short term bet for a day trader"

What's your idea of "risk"? To complete the day trade there is a spread that can vary from about 1% to 5%. Work that both ways and there has to be at least a 2% gain to break even, perhaps a 5% two way spread is fairer.

So a 10p move to BE. plus the SP has lost about 10% of its value over the last few days.

There is not a decent day trader in the world that would take this bet at those odds and risks. (imo)

and FWIW, anybody day trading stocks like this is going to lose money. (too big a spread, not enough volatility and too small a cap)

Cheers

Doc, Good day traders are risk-adverse. You admit "I’m likely wrong!" about a TR1 being announced, so i don't quite follow your logic that it therefore follows they will be buying today.

As its going to be a while yet......

From a TA perspective using daily close prices, ADV is in a trading range of 3.7-4.4p. If 3.7p goes then 3.62 is next.

However there have been 6 attempts to break 4.4p (a couple fairly half hearted but nevertheless), it is now a formidable resistance number.

The good news is that if that is broken it should bode well for that becoming in turn, a strong base and support for further rises.

Right now fluctuations in the SP between the TR parameters will be regarded as "noise" by TA traders and most likely won't attract much interest one way or the other.

We now rely on new greedy PI's to want to take a risk and buy in at these levels, to propel the SP forward.

However, imo its most likely news will be the catalyst now rather than speculation. DYOR etc etc.

Dan, its a bit convoluted, but Boo directors set up Medusa19 with exclusive world rights to sell Avacta (AVCT) covid LFT's and there is now a rumour with some dot-joining to suggest that Medusa will RTO Location Sciences Group (LSAI) so as to have a PLC listing so as to exploit the recently approved home use of the AVCT LFT.

This may be a temporary distraction for the directors away from Boo? (Currently LSAI are .55p per share).

FWIW, imo this looks a good place to buy in/top up. (Plenty of support around the 117p-119p mark) dyor etc

"You are being missed on avct :)"

ha ha..... very funny!! :0))

Hi Ci, HNY.

Well, I guess you don't really need me to tell you its in a downtrend...

it spiked down to 2.50p with an RSI on 20 and then spiked up to 3.15p before settling at 2.75p. The spike up coinciding with the previous low RSI might indicate a bottom but I am wary.

Currently 2.75p has turned out to be a support but it is important for it to stay intact otherwise 2.5p looms again.

A break and hold above 2.9p would suggest that 2.5p is the historic low and further moves would be upward.

The problem with this stock is that due to the large spread it makes buying and selling at the mid price very difficult and potentially very expensive.

So the risk (that is inherent with all stocks), is exaggerated when they come with such a large spread. I have got burnt on 2 occasions where gains looked to be coming but the selling price was so far away from the mid price It was not worth selling forcing me to wait for further gains which did not come and when it did start to fall back I could not get out due to HL (my trading platform) not giving accurate prices giving me a false picture and a greater loss.

So I find this far too risky to trade (given i am risk averse) so if you feel confident I guess stick with it but I would find it hard to give more weight to the upside than the down, so to me " on the one hand and then on the other" argument is pretty 50/50 and that is far, far too much of a long shot for me. (Those odds are roulette table stuff...)

Doesn't mean it won't pay off of course, but it really does feel finely balanced and I think, which ever way it goes on the update, there will be arguments to the tune of..." well, all the clues were there.." type of thing.