Member Info for wyndrum

Don't put words in my mouth BitL.

Price point maybe (and is likely to be) substantially higher than alternatives. (we will only know for sure when HUA is granted and the price announced

I have never said zero sales but yes little sales so far . (anyone disagree with that?)

I said missed the "Mass testing" opportunity back in march (moonshot etc)

never said mass testing was not economic, said mass testing at £5 per test would likely be too expensive for the masses to continually pay.

I Also said that if the AVCT was the main travel test then that would be fantastic.

I have also said that if the AVCT is a globally popular test then those global sales however relatively small per country, would still be a fantastic money spinner.

we can dance on the head of a pin as much as you like but here are some things we can agree on:

price will be important for mass sales.

There is competition of other test availability on a scale we never expected at the beginning.

There has been a substantial delay in uptake of sales but we don't know why.

I don't now why some here get so precious about this?

Its going to be (and already is) a mass market product to buy and sell. therefore companies will not pay more than they have to, so they can maximise profit when they sell it.

I have assumed the lack of business sales was because of the abundance of free tests still being thrown at them. (if this is the case it supports the "why pay more argument" i have made).

If private health care don't want a more accurate test now then no one will.

Why hasn't APAC come on stream yet? Where are all the distributors? No other country apart from the EU has authorised our test for sale. Why not?

You may all think its going to plan, I don't, on the evidence thus far. You are expecting a 180 degree turn around which would be great but based on what? (apart from hope.)

If omicron, turns out to be as harmful as Delta then AVCT should get a second bite of the cherry as testing will be back as high priority if vaccines are proven to be much less effective, (which they seem to be)

However if it turns out it is mild then testing will lose its appeal again.

Who knows, and really now, who cares.

Donkey,
Have you ever bought a £6 bottle Prosecco instead of Champagne?

(I have heard some do)

we will see donkey, but i think you are putting a lot of faith in people paying more for a similar product (Alsi, liddl, Primark, T-max Poundshop... sales offers etc etc etc etc etc.

Mass market tends to drive price down and quality becomes less important just so long as it does the job.

I hope you are right though.

Donkey,

I imagine the test the German state/region bought was sufficient, otherwise they would not have bought it?

Anyway, its academic, as AVCT don't have a HU test for sale.

I wish it were true Marik, but Delta was the original big thing, was it not? Then AVCT said their test detected Delta. Result..... tumbleweed blew through the office...

Its difficult to see a different outcome presently but thats the UK for you.

As for the EU, whats the excuse for that?

I think now its becoming clear that the price point if my calcs were correct, that the EU can get hold of test at less than 1.5 Euros is likely to price AVCT out of the market all together.

(I asked others to check about this cost per test but no one responded. I get i am filtered but I am surprised no one else has commented on the OP.?)

gemstar, the problem (which is actually of MM's own making)is two fold, imo.

He has, certainly in the early days, been very forthcoming with his analysis for all to read, however that has to be seen in the light of bolstering his already then large position, so the more people who read and agreed with his view may have bought the stock forcing the price up and therefore helping his position further. But there is a strong argument that although it was potentially good for him financially nevertheless, it highlighted a good opportunity for others as well.

However in light of events his forecasts in terms of the SP has been very poor, in fact doing the opposite of what he expected. I personally don't think that his now more repetitive and increasingly frequent case-making here and on Twitter are doing anything other than hoping to shore up the SP while events unfold purely for his own benefit.

I have to say I was originally very appreciative of MM's input, but it all changed for me when he asked number of posters to be filtered and effectively cancelled, only because they took a different view. As I happened to be one of them I paid more attention to it.

I am aware that my LFT view is in the minority here but I do try & put forward coherent reasons and logic as to my position.

Boring though I may be to some (or most) I do not agree with trying to incite others to deny free speech.

As a result I am extremely skeptical of MM's motives now, given the above points I have made. Buts as I said up top. This is all of MM's own making.

Cautious & Vegas you make reasonable points, and I accept my original reply reads negatively in a way that I did not mean.

I am as frustrated as any here on the lack of LFT progress thus far. and of the most fantastic opportunity we had last year, that has been missed.

My frustration was just piqued by another post showing a large order going to another company for almost certainly a test that is not as accurate as ours and it boiled over in my response.

So yes it is encouraging that they are buying up to 2 year plus in advance

(And not to diminish my churlishness of the reply for which I am apologising, I have since worked out the cost per test and (correct me if I have got this wrong and put the decimal point in the wrong place ) but, I thin k its 1.64euro's?)

Does anyone agree with that or as I say have i got my sums wrong?

All I am saying Vegas, that continually highlighting orders for tests when we either do not have the capacity to manufacture, either on scale, price or granted approval says what?

There is demand out there? (Ok that's a fair point), however what price was paid per test and what profit margin?

We can work out the price per test. What do you get?

well, no not really pedro,
"One thing I have fast realised when researching is that those who put forth opinions on when news is due know nothing more than the rest of us. There is a huge amount of speculation around Avacta and very little, if any, has been accurate"

(so she is having a little dig at MM & ophidia, who were and I think to a degree, still are, highly respected .)

I haven't pushed dates of when news is available, so that doesn't apply, and as for the imminancy of the LFT test well, I think my " speculation" has thus proved to be more accurate than most here.

But if you think think differently then thats fine with me. it makes no odds to Sarah either i imagine. (I think Sarah said that if AVCT were not on any govt list that would be hard to push sales forward, and that it was going to be dictated by cost, which I think i mentioned ooh, I don't know, 6 months previously.

By the way, I take no joy from being so far correct regards the LFT, but it has helped me profit form the stock by selling earlier than many here and banking the profit, but thats a dirty theme here on this BB. (And you can't accuse me of not saying it earlier, thats for sure.)
as long as AVA6000 comes good it will all work out ok.

so what you are saying ES is that we have missed 2.5 years of orders?

Thanks, you picked me right up.

evening Sarah, have you looked at the other strings to the AVCT bow yet, or are you still concentrating on the LFT income only?

Since you last posted, AVCT is on no extra LFT list yet, does that affect your original analysis?

without trying to get in the middle of this, I find it generally better never to get personal. Just as you have demonstrated t4g, no one know's your history or background experience, just as you don't know ftse12.

So to accuse him of the things you do without knowing any of it (and vice versa ftse12), gets no one anywhere except cause bad feeling and wasted time and posts trying to correct misinformation that the other is likely ever to accept.

just sayin..

Amin, well I would have to be, because if i was expecting it I wouldn't be a surprise..... (back on the whisky after a fizz ****tail chaser...)

GLA (and yes, patience is the key to everything....)

NE, I only think its a rig problem because everything else is forecastable and for it to be this late (and i know its not THAT late) suggests there is a problem of some sort and given the parts shortage around the world it makes some sort of sense to me, that deadlines keep being missed and its never definitive so something is not quite tickety boo, imo)

And just to be a real party pooper when you are born you have about 4,000 weekends to look forward to, all being well, so when you lose 6 of them, then its not nothing....

Oh,,... Merry Christmas everyone.... (I didn't get an invite to last year's no. 10 party, by the way)

The cynic in me Monks, is that he is now about £4m less well off than when it was at its high....

"a big holding" purely subjective

That's exactly what I say to Mrs Wyn each night......

SGF, I though it was meant to be end of oct rig move, then mid nov, then late nov, now next week?

(I am sure I read here we were expecting drill results before Xmas and that it was a months drill first?)

apologies if i have got my dates and info wrong.

I am waiting to see if another delay is forthcoming because then there might be an opportunity for a bit of re-arrangement of the PF) otherwise there should be a spike to above 4.6p once its on the move.

exactly Kisser, but I would expect a fall in the SP if this deadline is also missed in which case there might be an opportunity to pick some up cheaper.

(How would you feel if it was delayed until late Jan? ie another 6 week delay)

I'm not saying it will be at all, but I always think a good hypothetical can help concentrate the mind.

And before we get all mentalist, did anyone think or consider the possibility that 6 weeks ago we would still be waiting for the rig to move?

Pedro, you really are all in or all our arn't you!

When out you said the shorters are not fools they know what they are doing.

Now apparently now you are in, they are playing with fire, which seems a foolish thing to do?

I think everybody has to accept that picking shares and at what price to pay is a crap shoot.

I think based on what has happened before this a good risk reward for an entry. However it could just fall further as Mck thinks it might.

If' Im wrong i'll get out and take a few % loss on the chin and carry on. If it turns out history repeats itself I'll make some dosh.

And thats it really.

Oh calm down OT, just because I thought time up was Monday (two weeks from Tuesday expires on a Monday?) doesn't mean I' not a chartist. (I can be ac rap chartist but still a chartis). Plus (I can be wrong doing more than thing at a time.

Apparently a boat is turning up sunday. I presume with the latest, new Black & Decker drill bits because they had time to load up with supplies before now so I can't see what supplies would be necessary now. (Yep, we could have left Friday but forgot we had not packed the vegimite.....)

Anyway, it will be what it will be.