Member Info for wyndrum

ohhhh..... your using the Judeo Christian Calender.....fair enough.

Just a bit of devils advocate here guys, but I don't see why there would be any FOMO. This has been delayed a couple of times now and its on the cards thats its going to be delayed again.

(Words like "expected" means it not defo, why isn't it a definate date?

Within "2 weeks" is 7-14 days and at best it might go on day 13 or even 14? that's cutting in fine...

I actually will be surprised if it goes at the weekend (happy, sure but surprised, nonetheless.

Internally every red flag is frantically waving at me that there is a problem with the rig and they don't when its going to get
fixed.

I have no idea if my speculation is correct but what you can do... you either have voices in your head or you don't, and if you do, do you listen to them or not?

So many decisions....

(I was one of those sellers actually when the expected 2 weeks thing was announced. not of all of it but I took some off the table.)

Its not as relentless as you think BitL.

The relentlessness comes from repetitive posts claiming (for brevity) your view.

When I question some of the foundations of why people hold that view, then its never or rarely answered. So when yet another post comes up with the same points and I say, for instance who's going to pay for all this testing you say the public, ok. But you then follow that with i don't want to talk about it anymore.

However in April there are going to be council tax rises, NI rises, energy cost rises on top of already increased costs, on top of a huge rise in fuel at the petrol stations.

So when I say how does a family of 4 pay another £20 per week on top of all that to 1 test per week for all of them it is worthy of some thought or discussion.is it not?

But apparently not.

Mrs W love ski-ing but she says she does not want the faff of 3 or 4 tests to go away for a week and putting about £150 on the the bill (each). So right no we will defer for another year.

So that's 6 tests not being bought.

The thing is if some people test and some don't then it doesn't really slow down infection much does it, and so that family spending £20 a week testing is still open to catching it. Or perhaps it should be twice or 3 times a week or even daily to be effective?

Now who has the money for that?

Its going to do come down to cost. If testing is mandatory it will be strips of paper at a £1 a go. good luck with the profit margin on that. These are the sorts of conversations we might be having to see if for the sake of argument this prohibitive cost argument wins or not, based rational thought and experience.

Its clear vaccines are seen as the way out. Testing does not do anything other than slow down the spread and only if everybody is testing regularly and then isolating if positive. If we don't all do it, then it becomes a waste of money for the individual to do it. (Testing is still going on because its free, I want to see the price of our test and its profit margin to see what guess we can make about sales, when people have to pay and what the competition is.)

If we go global then all will be fantastic, if we are one of a hundred alternatives and more expensive than most, then sales might be very disappointing?

Who knows?

somebody call?

I've told you BitL, I only have ever had reservations about the scale of testing and now the test itself but we can only discuss the need for testing and how great our test results were/are and how fantastic it will be when we get (imminently) HUA, and project all the fantastic future options available.

What this BB can't do, apparently is use the historical evidence of why it might have been a damp squib (in your words), to examine if those positive expectations have a realistic chance of being fulfilled or not.

If you believe that HUA will transform sales (and fair enough if you do), then why do you think business sales have been so slow? why will the public buy it if business doesn't?

Do we think the SP reflects the LFT income is a wright off |(I don't by the way)?

Why do we think shorters won't close their positions?

Why did AS ramp the LFT (again your words)?

Does that mean you don't trust other things he says., or maybe you do, but why if he has a history of misleading statements?

The bear case always has to be examined just as much as the bull case but for some reason this BB refuses to do so in a rational way.

Just because it looks like I am the only one who brings the topic up, thats all i care about but its not true. We all know the bull case.

If we can work out the realistic downside SP-wise, then you can get a much better sense of, should you wish to increase your holding, when to do so.

don't be silly donkee and don't make out that this has gone like a typical Bio start up. (plus its an 11 year old start up that SP wise is not much further down the line than when it was when it started (and anyway i have already done financially OK out of the stock so far, not as good as I wanted and over a longer period , but ok).

Read the RNS's over the last 18 months and tell me this is what you expected.

To deflect on to me the shortcomings of the company statements suggests you are in denial.

Thats interesting Bella, have we got a test for sale then?

D, I don't know whats going on with EVE (obviously), but it's a tough time out there with the parts/logistics thing. It does sound to me a bit of penny pinching going on over at HQ so maybe sales have dipped a little and it has just slowed the recovery down a bit, however that looks priced in to me.

Good luck on "trading" EVE, the problem I had with HL on EVE that it would not let me get out as they were not updating the buy/sell prices and I had to call them to do it manually but that also meant that I was not getting getting accurate prices in the first place, and when you have such a big spread it can be a bit fraught.....

Still G4M is up so well done there! (I like Boo at this price and think it could be 250p on the back of a good jan update as the catalyst)

Still who knows! thats what it makes it so much fun!

Its not remotely Simple is it phantom?

Thats the ethos of the NHS, free at the point of delivery. and as AB, says, are you going to refund all their NI payments?

Smoking and drinking if done on a long term basis can cause illness, but these are not illegal activities.

Its not even restricted to illegal activity. in other words people who take drug overdoses are still treated.

Its not against the law not to have the vaccine.

There are arguments as why you would not want to have something that has been rushed through in a matter of a few months that previously took many many years before authorisation was granted because of the long term risks to health that need to be assessed.

Because JS, its not about infection, its about outcomes.

I would not want to sit on an airplane with someone who has a cold, but colds are very common and although tiresome for a while, we don't all take tests before we do anything.

The facts are that it is people who are nearing the expected end of their life with co-morbidities that are unfortunately most susceptible to this virus.

Again it has to be a sense of proportion which has been entirely lost now.

(look at omicron: the fact there is no evidence that it is more harmful, it is ignored thus far because it is in SA and they are younger than the the UK, therefore no conclusion can be drawn.

I get that, but at the same it just confirms that for most people this is not a death sentence.

The cost of this over reaction, had it been small, maybe could be justified, but the consequences could end up killing or shortening the lives of more people than the virus.

what about measles or mumps or any other child illness that they are vaccinated for?

I don't believe in mandatory vaccines either, but there are 2 issues here.

One is the philosophical argument about mandatory vaccines (and there are arguments on both sides)

And there is a separate issue on corrupt govts and vaccine manufacturers falsifying evidence for monetary or some other gain.

Well D, 2 reasons why I think the market does know more than we do:

I use to work for a PLC and they had several shops. Every one had to phone in their sales every single day to HO who then in turn let the house broker know, every single day.

Therefore the Broker could let its big clients know what was going on as soon as it deemed necessary. So no surprises to people in the know.

The other bit is the cynic/realist in me:

Once money is involved there are always going to be people out there trying to get an edge by fair means or foul.

Ultimately that gets translated into the SP so the average PI is the last to know and be able to be ahead of the game.

(Thats why I genuinely think its a crap shoot). If EVE turns out to surprise the market and the shares go up a lot, i honestly think all here will have got lucky rather than being smart investors (I include myself in all this by the way).

Its the main reason I left FA behind. The principle of FA could not be more obvious and clear cut, but I think its too easy. and all to easily manipulated. Anyone can do that. I think money talks and therefore I follow the SP. But thats just a personal view

You do realise vaccines work, right Agent B?

And these particular ones are more effective when compares to others such as flu etc.

The death rate has slumped since they were introduced, or does thaty not matter?

Always remember, testing does not protect you from catching the virus, nor does it limit the effect should you catch it.

"all" it does is give you the knowledge to see if you have it or not.

When there is no alternative, testing is everything, when you are at this stage with effective vaccines and soon to appear anti-virals, the need for testing dissipates.

Presently Omicron is being hyped almost as a new virus. This seems to be quite over the top, to me based on the little evidence available.

well Curator, you will enjoy my posts even more once we move that bloody drag weight of a useless pile of rusting metal masquerading as rig.......

(too much?)

JK, I think i am with the market and will believe it when I see it.

Clearly the "significant " order, is not enough to stop a cash raise being needed by ABDX, and how ambiguous is the word "significant" anyway? If you have only produced a few thousand tests in total and you get one for 5000 that would be significant.

The time its taken to do the TT surely raises some questions with you doesn't it? Again the last thing ABDX would have wanted was to go back to the market for more money so soon after an IPO (that in itself is a bit of a scandal), so you would have thought they would have moved heaven and earth to get TT done quickly and start producing these orders and earning some money.

For me, it is hard to be positive on the test when you look at what has happened in contrast to what has been said.

I use to do that Curator... this is just a hobby now...

I like the puzzle...

Quite ND, I may have mentioned previously I thought something was wrong.......

the weird bit for me is the lack of PR. The PR company they changed to is a financial PR company. (lets not go down the cash raise path...)
So they do not seem to think its worth pushing their own product that they have invested millions in developing.

The best case scenario, is that they have orders for millions of tests and they just have to wait for the paperwork to be signed off so as to get things moving and therefore there is no need to do anything else. This is perfectly possible except I think the SP would be reflecting that by now. (you can't keep a secret like that for too long imo)

Again in this current situation Medusa and AVCT surely have been constantly talking to the decision makers about the test and to get it approved.

No tweets, no nothing, no even, "we are currently conducting tests to see if our LFT detects omicron"and (even) "we are cautiously optimistic it will " etc etc. I thought the point of the Twitter account was for AVCT to be more communicative on events that don't warrant an RNS,

The silence is very strange but given the delays it is hard to assume the positive scenario is the actual cause.

Like I say I would no longer be surprised if they launch a whole new test that govts could fast track, because clearly this current one they don't seem able to.

or you end up going down the conspiracy rabbit hole where govts don't actually want this situation to be resolved and have decided the Chinese model of Capitalist Authoritarianism is the best way forward and not the up-to-now-democratic model.

All speculation of course, but what else is there, in this increasingly odd silence?

If the SP tells the story then my best guess would be that EVE is currently treading water. Its not improving. I think the cash balance is probably where it was at the start of the year and sales are probably the same.

I would be surprised if EVE have avoided the parts shortage that every other compay seems to be impacted from and even if there are improved sales it might be wiped out by higher costs.

So i would expect a neutral (and therefore disappointing) TU. I also think that the SP reflects that.

There does from what info you all unearth give an impression to me that EVE are in absolute money saving mode to the detriment of customer relations, which re-inforces my feeling about the trading position.

My conclusion would be at best, there has been a slight improvement in sales and therefore maybe cash balance or the sales increase has been wiped out by higher costs.

At worst, just flat trading similar to last year and therefore no real improvement, with another year of waiting for the turnaround to be confirmed.

Obviously just my opinion. But that is my guess based on the SP and where it is.

The thing that is so frustrating is that I have shares in another Stock that is waiting for FDA approval on a cancer therapy (not competition to AVCT) and this has dragged on because according to the FDA, their focus is on Covid tests and related products waiting for their approval and have told the company it will take longer than usual (much longer). As you can imagine its a potential life saver.

I am assuming the FDA is typical of other govt health agencies around the world.

So AVCT are apparently as a covid related test and producer being fast tracked and yet the delays are seemingly interminable, and yet other stocks are affected by the inaction on these covid stocks.

Its really odd.

Its like they have laid off all the regulatory bods in the world and said, "no rush, come in when you can, nothing much going on... only peoples lives at stake...."

You do start to wonder if there is something else going on.....

The only other thing I meant to say about this topic is that if we take reported spreads and price as indicative rather than gospel, then the only 2 prices that matter is firstly what you actually pay when you pay and what the selling price you are offered when you want to sell.

The rest ..... well, who cares really.?

(when I take a snapshot of my PF worth, I work it out on the sale price, not the mid price on what SP might be, because that is not the price I am going to get when I sell).