Member Info for wyndrum

Morning D:, yes I agree with you when you say "Looks like both parties would like eve to succeed rather than go-under."

It just depends how that manifests itself in any practical way that aids EVE.

Another answer could be because EVE have lowered the price to DFS?

The discount on their premium hybrid mattress is 50% plus. That sounds like they need cashflow to me.

Its all or nothing. if they get a bid the SP rockets (relatively) from here.
If they don't.......

I think the bull case is the funds are there now for a while which gives sufficient time for development of contracts and a clear path to profitability. (And hopefully a scale of how profitable the company may or is likely to become.)

My take on the fall below the 80p price is that the market thinks nothing much will happen for a while and therefore will put the money to work elsewhere.

I had sold out (fortunately as it turned out), previously but bought back in today (from a chart perspective) and will give this about 6 months or so to see how it progresses. Certainly the potential is there, but at some stage it has to be realised.

Chart wise its still on for a more sustained rise. quickly added this morning as its come back to 810p (got inn at 812p. GLA

RAH? What?

You answer the question why you think its languishing with absolutely no more knowledge than your opinion that the market does not "trust" AS which suggests they think he is a liar, with no corroberation whatsoevr. But thats ok.

I, using 2 examples of British Biotec companies in trials that if successful would transform their SP's show that even when successful, the SP fell.

I am not suggesting this is AVCT but simply trying to give ACTUAL examples where the SP seems divorced from the expectation of people on those BB's.

Jeez.....

RAH, it is routine here to use companies with no closer tie to AVCT then SNG for buy-out valuations to be transferred across and no one bats an eyelid.

The point of the post was that the company was in a trial with, if successful, would transform it to a multi billion company.

In that sense it is similar to try and figure out why the SP is pretty much rooted to where it is.

But by all means, assume its the markets reaction to AS, which I personally believe them to be a bit more mercenary and hard headed then that.

The only way AS is a contributing factor is if they think he is unreliable and a liar. Which maybe they do, according to you, in which case....why are we right and they are wrong?

How do we know more about him then they do?

You want to have it both ways?

I think the market is just a lot more wary then many here are.

Although no 2 companies are the same its worth noting that Synagin had very good expectations of their covid treatment and according to RNS/s interviews, incl. increased holding of fund managers, and of course the SGN BB, it was nailed on. The SP was about 180-210p with expectation of £5-15 per share until the actual results came through and out of the blue to all, the trial had been compromised by the addition of other treatments along side what SNG were doing. Now the SP is around 30p waiting for more trials.

Angle (ANG) is even more telling. It fluctuated between 75p and 140p waiting for FDA approval on a very valuable addition to cancer treatment. The approval was delayed by about 12 months but eventually was granted just 2 months ago. the SP spiked to 150p on the day and is now almost half that value at 78p. Why? because in their case, the market figured a cash raise would likely have to come before the tech was revenue generating in sufficient amounts to be self supportive. And hey presto, last week a £20m raise came at 80p.

So, not directly comparable but close enough to maybe explain the reticence of the market to apply caution at this stage.

(And before some go a bit ballistic, plenty of examples of other bio-tech buy outs are used here as examples of what might be an indicator for AVCT's value to a larger company.)

DGU, I would caution against much optimism on sales.

EVE's salvation will come from extra direct investment or a TO. It is the reduction in sales and the extra costs that has buggered up the business model.

It is unlikely that they will see profitability under their own steam.

No 2 companies are the same but look at Fevertree as an example of how increased costs are hurting them. (I use them because they are a well run low cost business with scale)

I think you underplay the intense financial pressure many companies are under.

D, in this specific case I thought the would have more frequently and sooner, ie, wild swings on no reported news.

We have seen huge spikes on little news (Cannabis oil spike.) so we know EVE has form of attracting money that moves the SP.

I think in this case I agree with your analysis when you say "...t's just that people are very nervous of missing out on huge gains or taking huge losses that's causing the swings.." as the most likely explanation.

Thats the problem with small stocks like this: is it rumour, just random swings, news that is about to be released?

I sold this morning due to the slow moves yesterday and in the AM. Took a bit of loss but it just ate into my profits so no real harm done, but it was foolish of me to chase this stock having done so well previously.

The silly part is, had I stuck religiously to my rules (and there is a reason why i have them!), I would be sitting on a larger profit.

Even if it bounces back up and ploughs on, from my pov it would just be luck, like on a roulette table.

because the news could be bad?

Thats how it usually goes Neut, You look at all the big, big multi baggers, (Apple, Amazon, Berk Hath, Coco Cola etc), it bags once or twice or even 10 times, the vast majority get out feeling very pleased with themselves and so they should, because its only with hindsight we can see if they should have held on or not.

Making the decision at the time is harder, a lot harder.

"Ignore the herd."

Yet it is the herd that determines the SP.

This thread where posters are revealing their likely emotional pulls on various scenarios explains exactly why often examining SP action and reaction can be so helpful.

The fact that we can all identify with Neuts potential dilemma shows just how strong the "emotional" pull is. And thats important because most of the threads and posts here try to deal and examine the "facts" of the tech as we know them, in other words all very rational, but when it comes down to the end game ie cashing out, (in which case the SP becomes very important!), then it becomes much harder to stick to any sort of plan.

Recognising that as early in the game as possible hopefully allows for the individual for a realistic plan to be put in place prior to events unfolding.

All I did Tim, was post a 2 line Chart indication. Look to Ripley for always, always being the stirrer with rude aggressive personal insults.

If he didn't post, I would not respond would I?

DGU, None at all. from a chart perspective its retraced/retreated to a support line at 1.05p. Who knows where it will go from there.

My wish is that it goes up....

DGU, I only put in the amount I gained on the previous trade so this is a free ride.

DGU, nothing said here makes any difference to the SP

DGU, Nothing has changed today, it is no more positive than yesterday which was no more positive than the day before regarding the company.

All that has happened is that we had a sharp move up followed by a sharp move down in the SP.

Buyers and sellers are looking (some nervously no doubt), as indication of the next move.

Right now this not supported by any "real" info from EVE.

D, I use the time settings relevant to the time I expect to hold the stock. If I expect to hold the stock days or weeks (which I tend to) then there is no point in looking at 1 week/1 day charts, they are too short term (if I was day trading then I would look to them, but there is not enough volume typically on aim stocks to justify or expect any reliable forecast of future moves.)

But when you look at a whole day of movement, say the 3 month or 1 year chart, then there has been a lot more of combined volume to look at the price movements to see trends and support/resistance levels.

My exception will be on a very fast moving day like yesterday where I would look at the 1m day chart to get a feel of the buy/sell action, showing very short term volatility and volume.

The RSI also has patterns and when they correspond and combine with to certain price actions it tends to be a pretty reliable indicator of future moves.

The simple 20/80 over sold/overbought criteria is pretty helpful when knowing when to buy and sell as a stand alone indicator.

Thanks for the explanation DD. One thing I would mention fwiw, is not to "predict" or "forecast" what might happen:

"So we have catalysts due" Do we? maybe, but when and will the news be good or bad?

in my experience its easy to see what you want to see. (I am not saying that is the case here but just in case you are thinking along those lines its worth mentioning..

There is always a desire to get in early to get the biggest gains, but it becomes a much higher risk trade and therefore has far more chance of failing.

The rule is trade less but take larger stakes with more "certainty" (DYOR etc etc)

Good luck and I am glad you are finding it interesting.

DGU, normally the SP moves in front of any RNS. EVE has been riven in the past on big moves over nothing.

The chart to me, indicates more chance of going up then down.