Member Info for wyndrum

Ah the fun of TA, there are always 2 possibilities, its just what the individual thinks is most likely (an odds thing) thats all.

I would say in defence of TA as it helps time exit and entry, how has buying using FA worked out over the last couple of years?

OMG, MM's job is to make an orderly market... !

why is it always the MM's keeping the price down illegally but never, ever pushing the price up illegally?

On small stocks where stock has to be matched in the main, (as in AIM) as MM's don't hold it themselves, its a trickier business to get buys and sells completed if they are relatively big orders.

If any shenanigans does take place its very temporary and doesn't run for days weeks months and years, and yet all the time I have been here, the one constant theme (apart from £200 ex china), is how the low SP is a MM conspiracy working for a big buyer keeping the SP artificially low. Forget there have been no TR1's ever reported in that time, its an absurd argument from start to finish. (imo dyor etc)

Red wine rissotto, with a horse raddish/parmisan rib-eye steak

Well, thank you LDA, you too, and as I am cooking for 8 tonight, I best get a wiggle on.

forgive me largo if you are just taking the ****, given previous comments you have aimed at me, but i will take the question at face value given other people here interested in ta might also be looking at that.

the "absolute" recent low was indeed in mid june at 39.75 and then it went on a pretty decent run topping out at 83p im mid july. however on the start of this move up it retraced briefly to 43p that initself is/was not important, but as with all ta its an ever-evolving story that works on much shorter timescales in this case, days and weeks. so when it reached that level again this week but bounced off it it gave the figure more value. given the 40p figure is now more distant in time it starts to lose its potential importance.

(sentiment is saying that people are not sure if it will fall to 40p so want to get in and not miss out and figured (as it tunred out so far), that 10% above that at 44p was ok for a risk reward bet.)

it closed at 49p today which is a bugger because niether its one of the other. it keeps the upward rally going but not in any sort of idecisive ta level. (52p would have been much nicer....).

so was this a bit quick ina nd out before it does in fact go to 40p, or more movement up on monday.?

when the chart is this finely balanced traders won't trade on it. they have either already taken a position or will wait for more evidence of the likely coming trend.

once a position is taken then a stop/loss will be in place (even if its just in the traders head) and the patient trader lets the trade play out rather than take profit too earlty or try to get out too early in an effort to minimise a potential loss.

so, if it does fall back and goes to 40p then yes, mid junes low will be important .

anyway, i think on balance in the short term there is more likely chance of it to go up rather than down. but hey, if it doesnt. i will wait until my stop is triggered take a small loss and wait until i see another potential opportunity.

(believe me when i say alot here seem more emotionally involved in my trades than i ever am.)

imo dyor etc

You2 really are very determined to disrupt this boad at any or indeed not evan, an opportunity.

Its even more fun when you do it for real....

48.4 on the trading account . but what do you care? You don't believe anything I say so why ask?

Its early days but with the latest recent low of 44.25 matcing the last low of 44.2p suggests (somwhat tentively), that a double bottom may have formed. (At the very least a support of 44p is now in place and as the SP in both instances was under a lot of pressure there is a reasonable argument that that is a strong support.)

If, and it realy is quite a big if at this stage, the DT is going to play out then a move to 85-95p should happen. The first thing is break over 64p to put the DT properly in play and indeed at a much more fundamental level simply a close at 51p would confirm that the recent downtrend has been broken. (the first indication to that "reversal" has been a 2-stage close, first above 46p and then 47p.

(imo dyor etc etc)

So if it looks to me the trial updates are going to carry on as we go but through tweets and other less formal ways than an RNS.

Its not ideal, as that becomes more interpretive, a nod and wink type thing, however the initial review of the trial not taking place for at least another 5-6 months was never likely as tyhe SP would not stand it.

So it will be the above and brokers notes, who will get private meetings so as to be able to release their "independent" assessment will be the way of the updates.

Good.

Well then why post in the first place?

You few are a bit odd. anyway i'm off now

See Largo, it just hurts too much to think I will profit from this stock if it shoots up so you say completely unjustifiable stuff even though for years I have said I have always kept a core holding.

Watching, you do realise the selling price is 46.81p don't you? (It with a buying price of 45p last night)

Its just that reading a lot of the posts today you would think we have had a material jump in the SP.

"Just stating fact’s"

how many shares do I currently hold for you to know that "fact"?

As usual you simply invent and lie away, thinking somehow making stuff up is I don't know? clever, superior? makes you feel better about yourself? or it just amuses you to be mischevous? Either way, none of those character traits impress me.

"You won’t do as well as me Windy!"

what do I care?

Jess:" don’t think it reflects very well on you when your posts turn so obviously negative when you switch from in to out."

(Accept I am never out, ever.)

I may reduce my trading holding or increase it but I don't bother telling any on here when I do any more. (no ones believes it anyway, but given the amount I post and the lack of movement in the SP I would be trading 10 times a week as opposed to a bit (sometimes) a month.)

The thought process you are using is based on no evidence but I am guessing, you think if I post "negatively" then it is to manipulate the SP so as to benefit from it." Therefore you have to assume I think my posting here affects the SP?

I was excited when the pipeline RNS was released. That caused no reaction in the SP other than a fall.

I know I make no difference to the SP, why anyone here thinks that anything I or anyone posts here affects it, is beyond me.

Most of my posts are in reaction to what others post if I disagree with their logic at aeriving at their conclusion or at least try to understand what their reasoning is.

I have said it before but when the facts change so will my post content. I find it pointless to be "positive" when the SP has been in long term decline unless I can see some justification to be more upbeat.

The guesswork of my trades/ holdings/ulterior motives have so far been very wide of the mark.

However none of this will ever change anyone's mind at this stage, even though I have been consistent in my core holding for over 4 years while having a separate trading account for this stock. Posters here believe what they WANT to believe rather than keeping an open mind. Ultimately it doesn't matter to me, or indeed to them or anyone else.

The only thing is I will have a wry smile that if this does come good as i will do as well as most on here so all their anger and pleasure at me "missing out" won't actually happen. (It's somewhat small minded of me, but still.....)

Jess, I don't like the terms positive and negative as it tends to evoke emotional reactions to an event.

I attempt to see what is actually happening and what has taken place in the recent past to determine why it has happened.

If I identify reasons that make sense to me then I run the tape forward to try and estimate what is most likely to happen next. Its no more complicated than that.

The major difference I think, that some here get so irritated with me, is that I put great store on the SP, because my experience has shown that it is a pretty reliable guide to what is happening and indeed whats likely to happen in the near future.

I completely accept that an RNS could arrive that transforms this stock but with afalling SP over many months and years, I think the market has no expectation of that surprise coming. A bit like buying a lottery ticket. Just because you have bought it for this Saturday does not mean you put an offer on a mansion and deposit on a new car in the expectation it will come up trumps.

So currently with a falling SP which has been running alongside good data releases ,suggests we here, en masse are missing something. Its this sort of disconnect that makes me look for potential reasons why this is the case.

If my analysis proves correct it gives me confidence to take money out of in this case, AVCT, and try and get it in somewhere else to make a turn before if I think there is now a better chance iof AVCT rising, putting it back in.

To me, this is obvious, straightforward and not remotely contentious, which given the responses I get only highlights to me the emotional state of many who respond to my posts. And the one thing I have learned is that emotion can and does cloud rational judgement and in this area that normally equates to either not maximising profit or more likely, unnecessary losses.

" Hopefully some people will get caught by being out when 'big news' happens."

Hopefully some people might buy in at a low point and exploit any deal that does come along more fully.

The envy and spite is a joy to behold.....

Fwiw it became oversold in a technical sense at 12.5 with the RSI showing 81.74 (which for me anything above 80 is a clear sell or at the very least not a place to buy in).

So it is naturally unwinding, and at currently 11.5p it is at a minor support level but still leaves the RSI relatively high.

So the 2 options are close around this price and go up tomorrow (very bullish) or fall to the next level at around 9.75/10p.

There is a reasonably strong bull case for this minor retrace to be enough to tempt in buyers because it has risen strongly from 8p with a short pause before going up quite a bit more to 12.5p

However there is also a fair chance for further unwinding so its at an interesting level and those who know this stock and follow it, will probably react quite quickly to any move.

Given its been solid around this level and the pull back has been restrained over 2 days suggests to me, on balance that this is a good place to get in, but it really is quite finely balanced so perhaps half in now and the rest if it does fall to around 10p. Certainly a rise again above 12.5p opens up 15.5-16p as a target which is 25% rise from there and just shy of a potential 40% gain from here. (imo dyor etc etc)

Interesting my accurate summation of the situation has been deleted.

I wonder if Apre is involved in this as he sees any non- ramped view as disruptive, but then he has never been open to different scenarios.

an accurate stat is that the SP has fallen over 30% in the last 20 trading days. This with the news that has been released....

chart wise 40p is the 3 year low which has been visited twice. if that goes then its 25p but that was pre covid days so I don't think its relevant, so it will be a case of seeing what price action occurs. But there needs to be a reason to buy and right now the market if it thinks it has more chance of falling than going up, will wait.

(If you take into account dilution its already below 40p)

This post will obviously be deleted.