Member Info for wyndrum

I dont post that often at weekends

Lets not dance on the head of a pin and deal with reality.

None of us know whats going on. therefore we have to draw dots on whats most likely.

sometimes you lot just want to argue for the sake of it.

What assumption are you making that that scenario would take place?

Avct, Seriously, where is the logic flawed?

My reasoning is that a low SP is not in the shareholders interests (nor the company's as it leads to (unnecessary) increased dilution) and/or may precipitate a low ball offer form another company and may make future cash raises, if needed, more expensive in terms of dilution and even at a further discount than the current SP. All destroying or at best harming shareholder value.

Any of those assumptions particularly flawed?

If we agree with the above then the BoD would not want to allow SP, if it can be avoided to stay effectively, artificially low.

Therefore how could legi they raise the SP?

Release news on the DX sale in terms of when it might happen and with an indicative price. But they have not done that.

Release data on the trial. They have done that but almost without fail it causes a fall in the SP. The best case is that the market does not understand but if that were the case then that could easily be rectified by AVCT clarification. But that has not happened.

The argument that the SP does not matter is a very strange view for shareholders( the owners of the business) to take and certainly sends the completely wrong message to the BoD. The assumption is that this project won't fail, yet we have not even started the efficacy let alone the larger phase 3 trials. If again the assumption is a BP buy out, then whatever the current SP is will ultimately have a large bearing on the offer price. The longer the SP is low/falling allows an increasing number of LTH's to give up and sell out which will be replaced with new buyers at these low prices who would likely be very happy with a 50-100% return within a few months.

Anyway, thats how I see it.

You raise a very good point Trendz.

What if another raise comes while still repaying the last loan?

What price then for the SP to get it away successfully?

This is the problem with a low SP. It restricts room to manouver .

I don't think there has ever been a good enough business focus within the culture at AVCT however they are obviously aware of this potential scenario.

They must either expect or hope that DX will be sold at ahigh enough price to resolve this predicament.

That leads on in my logic to realise that if AVCT could talk up the data to improve the SP, they would.

If this is the best they can do then either its not as good as BP/market need to invest or they are inept at spelling out quite what they have.

Given they have had many opportunities to talk to the market then it only leads me to think, there is a gap or missing piece in the data or the time to market is simply stretching on so far as to be at this stage meaningless.

What a drag...

Trendz. thats tricky. I am not sure many think that it will be more than was paid for it 2 years ago, which in itself is not great.

It would have been bought on the basis that merging the 2 companies and with AVCT tech, the total would be greater than the sum of the parts. 2 years on and as I say that £40m looks to be unlikely.

AVCT have not given any guidance on what they expect which suggests to me it might be a good deal less. I think most here will see somewhere between £15m-25m. Just based on this continually disappointing company, I wont be remotely surprised it was £10m or less, but that is not based on any more or less knowledge than anyone else has.

Given the current mkt cap is £163m the amount of the loan outstanding should not actually be much of a problem but the way it has been set up causes a constant drag on the SP and goes back to what I said earlier: Why would you buy at todays price if you think it will be cheaper next week/month etc?

It sounds sensible to have a RI just to clear the CLN debt so it would be both dilution-neutral and remove the constant drag on the SP. The problem with that is where do you price it, to get it away?

I get the impression that AVCT have slimmed down personnel and overheads to stretch out funds as much as they can.

I do think that the trial length has been an unforeseen event for AVCT and does not show any sign of being reversed.

Ultimately no one will buy in in significant amounts until they feel confident that there is enough cash to get this to market. All the time there is likelyhood of more RI and dilution puts a major question mark for any major investment (imo)

If you look through the RSN's a cash raise seems to take place every 15-18 months.

Perhaps its a bit more straight forward....

Why would you buy something today if you think it will be cheaper later on?

This is important because the single and only reason to buy AVCT shares is because you want to get a return on your money.

There would seem to be a 6-12 month wait now for p1b data and in that time there will be more dilution with a likely cash raise if no other outside funding/revenue arrives. Those 2 likely events do not support the current SP.

There is a reasonable expectation that within that time frame the DV division will be sold. However what price will be paid is not clear at all. The time taken thus far suggest to me the price AVCT are asking is too high for current prospective buyers. if that assumption is correct then it depends on whether the DX division is generating profit or taking resources as to what deal will eventually be done.

I also don't think it helps that no contract win worthy of a RNS has been issued that I am aware of. With AVCT's apparent product diagnostic products to add to both companies portfolios being ground breaking suggests , perhaps surprisingly, that they have made little if any difference to sales.

"basic company research such as reading RNS's " (and lets not go into interviews....)

hmm...

"The first patient has received their first dose of AVA6000 at The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. The Phase I study is being initiated across a small group of leading UK cancer centres with an established reputation for early cancer clinical research in the Phase I setting. The dose escalation phase is anticipated to complete by Q2 2022 followed by completion of the dose expansion phase by Q2 2023."

"The Board anticipates strong near-term news flow relating to the COVID-19 test developments with Cytiva and Adeptrix, as well as commercial and technical progress in the established therapeutic and diagnostics businesses, allowing the Company to concurrently achieve multiple value inflection points that we expect will deliver substantial shareholder returns. I look forward to updating the market on our continued progress."

"The need for rapid antigen tests to diagnose COVID-19 infection that can be mass produced for rapid, professional screening of large populations, and for self-testing by consumers themselves, is crucial to limiting and tracking the spread of this disease. Antigen testing will also be critical to lockdown exit strategies around the world in order to get healthy, non-contagious people back to work to re-boot economies, and there will be an ongoing need for several years for antigen testing as the disease recurs.

"We have made an excellent start to our collaboration with Cytiva and we expect to shortly be able to provide Affimer reagents to Cytiva to implement on their rapid test strip technology."

I very much look forward to updating the market on progress with Cytiva and on other commercial partnerships in relation to coronavirus testing that we are pursuing."

" "I am very pleased with the rapid progress made by our partners at Adeptrix and delighted that the Affimer reagents that we have developed to detect the SARS-COV-2 spike protein are working very well in the BAMS assay. This bodes well for all our COVID-19 antigen test development programmes.

We are now looking forward to testing the prototype BAMS assay with patient samples in the UK very soon, whilst Adeptrix does the same at a site in the US. This will keep us on track for launch of a product for professional use in the summer."

These were all RNS comments. Its immaterial what the subject is, the point is reading the RNS's is not always that instructive. Thats why you have to think for yourself and use judgement.

That judgement is influenced by experience.

How some here can be quite so oblivious to the past on this company is something to behold, particularly when it comes with the smug and insulting, dismissiveness of other views that have turned out to be more accurate over many years,

Cj, I don't know what you mean other than stating the obvious.

If DX does not sell or at say £10m then another cash raise will likely be necessary.

Given we don't have a clue whats going on with the DX "sale" then all scenarios are currently available

Aldebarn, it was a scenario to describe what may occur from anothers posters question.

There is always the possibility of a buyout , of course there is, but you normally get a "better" premium for profitable companies as it is easier to value them.

Personally I don't think the premium would be as high as I suggested because it would come on the back of inconclusive data. (once it is conclusive then thats awhole different ball of wax.

The costs involved of progressing the trial, relative to the likely sale of DX I think, are miniscule.

Any bod (not just avacta ), when they talk about the "future expectations" such as in our case nasdaq listings, timelines, sale dates, new appointments, etc are in my experience not reliable as there is no legal comeback. Mostly always these expectations are not met in the way the rns often implies.

Right now they are trying to do this on a skeleton staff with as low costs as possible. That chimes for me with the slow speed, the lack of the new appointment and the seeming lack of an impeding DX sale.

Personally I think a low buy out/tie up is now the most likely outcome as the pipeline is another 4-6 years away.

The money will have to come from somewhere. Certainly there was no appetite last year to fund AVCT. And remember they could have reached out to US investors to take part couldn't they? So I see Nasdaq as at the very best a ways off and more likely once AVCT is in bigger hands, then maybe the US beckons.

imo etc etc

The flaw in the argument that alow bid could not succedd because it would casue a bidding war is completely undermined with a continuing low /staic/falling SP whilst at the same time new data is released.

Its impossible to know what is going on behind the scenes but the only indicator that we have is the SP.. This suggests that BP are not interested so why would there be a bidding war?

The lower the SP falls the lower the eventual buyout will be if it ever comes. And I completely agree with Thorn that if the Avct Bod are offered board positions from a takeover company and a fat salary many multiples of what they are on now they will be very keen to take it with the job security that will come with it.

Hopefully none of this will occur but it was just a response to another posters question.

Thats why a low SP (as we all know) is very damaging and dangerous on all fronts to the company and its shareholders.

The fact that the Bod don't "seem" to care" is a red flag for me because of the increased jeopardy that may arise for the shareholders.

Remember, there never needs to be any ambiguity on any RNS that a company releases. (and mostly there isn't. the ambiguity tends to be invented by rose tinted "investors"

I outlined this a few times over the years to remind some here that it can "work" and holders here can still lose out.

A bid could come in 70-90p to buy us out. The avct bod recommend it and the "private" company then funds the £100m to take it to market so for somewhere around £400m then get the whole chebang. (or about the equiv. of 110p per share in total.)

Its alright if you have a lower average but not many here will and even those that do its not going to be a great return on 5 years plus of holding.

Thats why i keep banging on that the SP does not lie. There is no advantage4 to a low SP for anyone connected to the company.

But don't worry, this is just fud.

"The fact also is that wyndrum, thornogson/NDN/eggy and toukankahmoon are traders and/or damaged individuals who are ignorant of the processes involved in clinical development as well as the underlying oncology and can, indeed should, be disregarded, filtered or reported when they spout their disinformation to try to influence sentiment (their FUD)."

hmm, so BV you forecasted all this did you? So over the last few years you had an expectation that the SP would continually fall as the delays would obviously affect cash flow meaning the uncertainty of dilution.

Forgive me but I don't remember those posts.

I do remember the "non-fudsters" saying you won't be able to buy below 130p and that the SP could only go up that the market was as thick as mince, the the Bod were fantastic, that every appointment to the bod proved the company was about to take off etc etc etc. That the data was incontrovertible, that nothing can stop it, that it would be £200 ex china.

That the clever "analysists" here all through covid could only see a never ending market for it, and indeed the the then wonderful AS, said he saw at least 5 years of covid related sales.

You couldn't make it up.

You see black as white and keep poking the only posters who have been broadly realistic with their expectations based on all the info available, not just the biased stuff the BoD offer up.

And still after all this time you still believe what they tell you verbatim.. It's true, there is one born every day.

And the reason you hang on every word? is because of your greed. The reason you blame posters here like me? because of your fear.

No wonder half decent traders can make money when so many like you consider themselves superior "investors" without recognising you know nothing about what is going on until its after the event.

QA, my understanding was p1a finished in Q2 and the patent selectin//dosing for P1b starts thereafter.

Now it seems an extra cohort was introduced. (which none of us knew about by the way so great research here...) why? How many cohorts do you need to ascertain safety?

And if they have only just started recruitment I have no real time frame for when they will start dosing. And given every single part of this trial has been surprisingly extended I would expect P1b to follow suit.

So when do we think the data for that will be released? q3/or more like Q4 is my guess. In which case there needs to be more money in the coffers and again fwiw, I don't think the sale price of DX will be sufficient to avoid that. And that means more CLN sale dumps in a void of data updates?

Its not gloom and doom is just this never ending can kicking that is stopping investment getting up a head of steam.

The fact that there have been so many adjustments to the safety profile stage suggest to me something is going on that does not quite fit and they are resolving these issues as they occur, that for me, accounts for the continual delays.

imo dyor etc.

It reads well Blue, I agree, and the SP is in a very tight range which typically means when it breaks out is should be quite a violent move (in whatever direction).

However with the recent communication there looks more chance to a breakout to the upside than down.

(enough for me to add at this price :0))

"They just can't wait to say " I told you so " how have their lives become spiteful and meaningless is beyond me."

you don't think your comment perhaps was "spiteful"?

You don't think if this comes good you won't er posting in block capitals saying "I told you so"?

As for meaningless, so far, from my point of view looking forward as to what's most likely, I have managed to make money out of this stock. So perhaps meaningless for you but profitable (mostly) for me. And as this is an investment BB making money ranks quite high up as to how accurate posters are in their "forecasts".

Still, if making things up about peoples characters, does it for you I suggest you either grow up or get out more.

" lonely old men "

And a merry christmas to you too.

Biggi, I would be more "delighted" if the SP actually went on a sustained rise.

However when you read the lates RNS its just more delays and unexpected stuff going on that no one knew. I thought that P1a had or was expected to finish in Q2. Now here we are at the back end of the year with screening still or just started for P1b so that's 6 months out.

The latest interview sounds good but I thought this BB was all over the moon over what Dr Tapps said a year or so ago, so I am not quite so deliriously happy about this latest thumbs up with the caveat of "if it works" wedged in.

So i still think ultimately it was a "profit warning" as another cash raise looks more likely now sometime in the next 6 months

" Means the right people don't know."

who would they be?

and why don't they know?

BV, what is the current SP.

What is your explanation for the constant fall in it given the trila is ever nearer finishing?

Rather than ignore, why not expain your reasoining?

The cause and effect of a longer trial and a falling SP could reasonablybbe its not going as well as expected.

So, what do you think is going on?