Member Info for wyndrum

I honestly dispair at the naivety of many on this board that simply cannot comprehend how important finance is to the outcome of this stock. The assumption that DX is already sold is based on absolutely nothing.one day the penny will drop.

You don’t think that highlighting flaws in arguments is worthwhile?

Perhaps when you realise it’s all and only about the money in these types of stocks that you will appreciate research isn’t the first thing to look at if the goal is to make money.

You have to ask what difference the P1b data will make. We already know lt works so does everyone. If P1b is to be the breakthrough that implies the data to date isn’t conclusive.

It can’t be just me that sees that obvious logic?

That’s why the sp is 50p.

Its not as cut and dried as some people think.

It’s been so long that I’ve forgotten what phase 2 in the trial is for?

It wasnt hypothetical. It was based on your statements displayed as facts.

I simply highlighted where you have consistently been wrong for years based on your research. You constantly invest more as the SP falls.

Most investors do not adopt the "falling knife" strategy and certainly not on an experimental tech within a loss making company that has already made many misteps to date culminating in the removal of The CEO.

I am not obsessed with the risks, simply recognising them in a company that has so far failed to deliver any single commercial product from all the attaempts its tech was meant to provide.

Its is to combat your one-eyed view that this stock can only result in many many multiples of where the SP is now and indeed has been at its peak. (However its peak was based oin another part of its tech portfolio that failed.).

You can argue that CC is better than AS (and maybe she is and will be), but you never recognised AS at the time to be misleading investors although afew here did , to a lot ridicule and scorn.

Still, I am sure you have a broad based portfolio and this stock represents a small fraction of it, as that is what an actual invester would have as opposed to a gambler, for instance.

Have a nice week

I don't know how you can keep misunderstanding me... its takes my breath away:

"Truthfully me and Windy are wanting different things. He’s obsessed with the SP and short term gratification."

What I am posting is that the refusal of the SP to appreciate suggests to me that there is something holding it back.

Its not about anything to do with a short term bounce. I am as keen as everyone here to see a huge multi bagger. What puzzles me is the reluctance of BP or II's to build a stake or buy the company out over such a long time period.

And if its to wait for P1b data, then what does that tell you about the validity of P1a data in their eyes?

There is nothing, nothing whatsoever in the "inevitability" of the SP to catch up to the science. (AGL waited a long time to get FDA approval, and when they did the SP went from 156p to 10p. Sure its a different company but it is an example that FDA approval is not necessarially the be all and end all.)

And the SP will never reflect the science, it simply reflects at any given time what people will buy and sell the stock for. Sometimes it looks under valued, sometime stocks can look overvalued. its arbitary. It is also why the SP should not be ignored as though it doesn't matter. To share holders its all that matters.

And I have said before If a delay comes and another cash raise is needed an opportune bid could feasibly arrive well short of the ultimate value for current AVCT shareholders.

My "beef " with you is that you come across as not understanding or remotely interested in the mechanics and drivers of investment represented by the SP and hang everything on, in this case the science, while ignoring anything that could scupper the science, such as better science coming out negating AVCT's tech, like opportune bids, like a mis-managed company (it happened here already why can't it happen again?), like the tech failing (as so many novel therapy's do as trials develop into later phases), that the FDA might not approve it, that even the science isn't quite as effective as was indicated, that it is delayed and is put back years further into the 2030's.

To be aware of the myriad of pitfalls all small loss making high risk bio-pharma's have to negotiate is not Fud, is not to do with being a "Trader " or being a Troll, or trying to manipulate anyone.

If it comes good the profits and higher SP takes care of them selves. Its simply to always and constantly focus on the risks to help preserve capital and should something not go well then it was a scenario that was accounted for and the share holder was not over exposed.

"CC isn’t here to hold our hands and explain every detail to us. " She works for the shareholders. Share holder returns have been abysmal.

" DX has been quietly scrubbed from the RNS and website, so it’s only a matter of time before it’s sold off, extending the cash runway even further."

The key points are when and for how much as both will impact the cash runway.

"The decision makers in big pharma already know exactly what’s going on"

I am sure they do, so how does that reflect on no buy out, no II's stake building and a non-moving SP?

Its just for balance.

As no one seems to appreciate me asking questions because... Well, I don't know why, actually....

I think any US listing is aways off and will only happen when AVCT have sufficient funds to do it which I think is over 12 months away and dependent on P1b data and the reaction here may make it unnecessary.

I think the Aim market reads RNS's based on some stocks bag on RNS's.

There was a very muted reaction to the latest data results.

I think CC and other directors, are talking all the time to colleagues within the industry and therefore know all about AVCT. As the SP has not broken away from the last cash raise, which we thought was a mismanaged offer at too low a price, I think the Data to date is not compelling to the industry. I think this is supported by the lack of any stake building by II's

The CC quote: "... in the Phase 1b expansion ..... the first patients to be treated in these expansions are expected imminently in the US." The phrase "expected imminently in the US." is a red flag for me as that gives a double amount of wiggle room: Any delay could be "unexpected" and "imminently" reminds me of "shortly" from AS, what does it actually mean when she could have said for instance, " within the next 2-4 weeks". That suggests it is still open ended and allows an element on timing uncertainty to arise.

With the lack of information on the DX sale I surmise it is not expected imminently which then suggests there will be share dilution coming rather than a cash payment. No milestone payments for a very long time now also adds to the uncertainty of any extra income to support the company while P1b eventually starts.

My conclusion is to explain the lack of SP movement that the industry is not moved by the P1a data. (it could be just too small a sample, but for whatever reason its not compelling) I think it more likely that a bigger sample of P1B may get their attention but at the same time I think that will be delayed towards the end of the year now.

The lack of a DX sale and info on it clearly is not helping and further cash raises may be on the mind of II's

So, no change, all Jam tomorrow while the Trial seems to progress at a snails pace which is in direct conflict to such

apparently, ground breaking trial data.

Chris, have you been impressed with the timelines that CC has given to date?

Did you think we would have sold DX by now? or that Pib would in fact be releasing the first data on dosing but has not even started yet? Did you expect a CFO to have been installed earlier than just last week?

I thought there was to no trial data releases until P1b but here we are today. I think CC has tried to stabilise the SP with some news today and as we can see it has had little effect.

Its not that I don't think AVCT will succeed, what I am increasingly wary of is when and what size the market will eventually be depending on the success of the tech at that time, and what the SP may have fallen to before it ultimately bottoms out.

These are all unknowable so all I can use to judge the odds is how the company has performed over the last few years. Yes there is largely a new board but so far it looks broadly the same to me.

". I back my positions with research and a clear strategy, not the emotional guesswork you’re projecting. Dismissing this as a “punt” is laughable, it shows your lack of insight into growth investments"

Your "research" is laughable. you have no idea whats going on other than what you are partially told by a discredited BoD. There is no research other than what you are drip fed that you can use to base your view on. Yet look at the history of the company. Every timeline missed. Even now P1a did not officially finish until Dec 2024, yet it was meant to be in the summer. That made us think P1b would be dosing by the autumn but nearly 6 months later we have not started, (but it is "expected to be imminent", if you can't see the red flag of likely delay in that statement then there really is no hope for you.

A stock, as an "investment" is one that produces dividends and is likely to continue to do so well into the future. That way there is still a return on the capital invested while the SP may fluctuate but over time typically will appreciate.

Betting on high risk, loss making companies with new untried and unproven technology is NOT an investment. This is where AVCT lie. Many on this BB have been caught by SNG, ABDX, AGL, ODX, Intergumen and indeed AVCT, to name just a few.

Yet if you read any and all of those BB's the enthusiasts were all convinced that their stock was by far and away, without exception, the best one on the market. and yet.....

Its not "negative" to express caution when a stock has fallen over 80% off its high in just over 3 years.

Even with this RNS the SP has not moved... Why? because it has been delayed with dosing still to begin. The clock continues to tick and the cash continues to burn. And what is going on with DX? (is the 10 days up yet?)

Its you that said you did not understand how people get sucked in and then make statement of certainty that even if you bought in at 295p you will be quids in, which is just a guess at some undefinable date in the future and not based on anything else.

You talk about risk and reward without the first clue of understanding what that means.

You talk of "potential" rewards without a timeframe.

You have always admitted you don't care when this will deliver. Your assumption is that it can't fail as demonstrated by your repeated posts of continually buying all the way down so that now even at 50p you apparently are in profit. (Although I have my doubts). Yet you have no idea when or even if you will get a return let alone what that return will be.

This stock is NOT an investment ,it is a punt, a gamble, your belief in the technology which only comes via RNS's is myopic. This company has a track record of misleading RNS's. Yet you refuse to counternance any other view.

And worse, insult others who do advise caution.

"I’m struggling to see how folks got sucked in "

by posts such as yours......."Even if you bought in at 295 you will still be quids in"

And how do you know that? what if it does not get FDA approval? what if an offer comes in first based on the RNS today to save any further dilution and misery to share holders BP puts in an offer to bankroll and speed the trial up and assumes the risk of failure at 75p share?

Who knows what the future will bring.

Doc, I have said a few times over the years that I think these BB's do more harm than good (esp) for new investors.

And it doesn't matter how many times you advise people not to bet more than they can afford to comfortably lose, they go right ahead anyway. (This stock of course is different, this is THE one.)

"You’ve built your entire argument around negativity and hypotheticals, ignoring the actual evidence in front of us."

What has the SP done over the last 3 years? as a fact, how as the SP reacted to the continual stream of good news?

"The disconnect between the share price and the results data! That’s hardly a revelation, everyone knows AIM stocks don’t always reflect value in the short term."

So 3 years is short term? 3 years of more and more data being released coinciding with a falling SP.

"Your so-called strategy is nothing but trading noise" My strategy as I have told you before, is to keep a long term holding that I am prepared to lose but it is in my portfolio, very small. My trading when I apply it to this stock, has resulted in sufficient profit for my long term holding to be effectively risk free. As a result I keep up to date with AVCt as it has been a good source of profit over the years. You may call it "so-called" in your dismissive manner but it is an actual strategy that so far has paid off handsomely.

I understand I have not got a clue whats going on at AVCT but you think you do, so who is the arrogant one here? My forecatst of what was likely have proven to be accurate enough for mew to profit from. Reminding you and others who insult me is not a sign of arrogance, but that insult suits you to cover your failure to profit from this company.(Doubling down on every fall is typically referred to as a "mugs game" and simply magnifies the risk on an already high risk stock.)

I don't need to justify anything .Its just the constant, never ending, misrepresentation you spout that I feel the need to correct you on.

This is a BB. A share holder is a shareholder, there is no "genuine" or "fake" Shareholder. Just because I am prepared to take a long view and at the same time, believe I can profit occasionally on a shorter time frame is hardly a unique strategy. Its just one that for reasons that pass me by, irritate you to distraction.

Ok, I will break my rule and engage.

if anyone is influenced by my views, then that is up to them. Presumably they see the logic of my reasoning if they agree with them.

When you are looking at this stock there is a disconnect between the SP (and its history) and the results data. That should prompt discussion as to why that might be.

Given how low the SP is and has been for a long time now while new data is routinely released, suggests something somewhere is holding it back. The low SP suggests it is hindering SP appreciation. It is not "FUD" as you continually hide behind, to think about this.

Your "strategy" is simply a head in the sand approach with seemingly no care at all about risk reward. You have no idea when this will if ever, succeed, you seem happy to hang on for years and years on the hope you will be rewarded and ignoring any other possible and potential outcomes. You ignore every setback as being meaningless, which is fine but it does not make your view right.

If anyone here buys or sells on my remarks as I said up top, that is up to them. I don't believe they do by the way.

As for my trading anyone and everyone knows I use charts to time entry and exit, nothing said here influences the SP, I know that, you know that, so at what prices I hold buy or sell are irrelevant.

your lack of thought in the assumptions you make about my trading, the amount I trade, the prices I buy and sell at, the length of time I hold the stock, simply highlights your narrow, fixed view and your inability to be objective.

Your assumption you are right and everyone else who disagrees with your view is wrong ,is testament to that. But not only wrong, but actually you think their views are lies to deceive other posters. Thats how misguided and arrogant you in fact are.

I have continually said I (and none of us) have a clue whats going on behind the scenes and as a result have to be very careful as to how much of our portfolio should be invested in such a high risk stock.

What you mean Ben, is you don't agree with my views on the stock.

If you think its carping to be critical of a this stock with all its history over the last 4 years (since I bought), then that is of course your right.

Ben, SP movement is usually a daily recurrence.

Thanks B2, if you are on HL you are blind to what is happening.

Yep

Bella, "If it's a dud and eventually we get told so and Big Pharma realises this and is shunning all attentps to get a deal then surely DX becomes the go to side of the business."

Even assuming the above and DX was held on to, if we value it at £45m then the sp would be 12p. if it were worth 10m then the SP would be about 5p.

I don't think its that bleak, I just think we are a long way away (several years) and the opportunity may not be as large as we were led to believe.

And (at the moment) it makes cash the real issue as it is not remotely clear how this will be funded going forward. Nasdaq? Ok, but how? when?

The SP struggles just to clear 3m a quarter.....

These are the nuts and bolts of it, and the BoD have not or cannot release the answers for these questions. I am equally sure if they could they would.