Member Info for wyndrum

Apparently Knotty, there is no point in arguing against anybody here that does not share the £20b valuation that the whole world knows is already in the bag.

Quite why cautious optimism on a stock like this with its history is so denigrated shows the level of emotional dependence on this coming good for some.

Too many have been here too long and have fantasized about what they would do with the all their winnings at various imagined SP levels. This has gone on for so long with this new world and lifesyle of wealth in their imagination, that they simply can't accept a reality where this might not occur after all this time.

It started with the LFT potential (£200) and even though that was a joke, it was only half joking such was the fevered speculation of what global dominance in the covid testing would mean.

That cruel collapse (emotionally) was then quickly replaced with the trial. The various and several RI's, and slumping SP has simply pushed many here to the edge of their dreams not ultimately being fulfilled. So they are doubling down and ignoring any and all scenario's that might contradict and therefore destroy their dream that they have invested so much time and emotional energy in.

So everybody knows about AVCT and with all the new data being dropped and interviews and RN's etc etc....and the SP is still 47p

Why pick a figure at a billion to start the bidding, why not £200m as a slight premium, or get this.... maybe at market cap of £150m? because BP might wait until a cash raise is inevitable and tell the market how much more money will be needed to complete the trial, and how long it will likely take, (years) (they also might mention the risk of it not succeeding), and this price (say 40p) is well above what the dilution would be and therefore good value?

What then for nervous shareholders?

BP are in fact not stupid when it comes to business. And even assuming a bidding war takes place, that starts around where we are now might not even get to £500m. We simply don't know, but the market clearly does not share some here's enthusiasm for these fantasy prices based on nothing but what they would wish for.

Lots of scenario's and none of us know which one will eventually be the reality.

Didn't see the LFT failing, didn't see Launch and Coris being bought, didn't see a cash raise at 50p, didn't see AS getting sacked.

Yeah, great research, never fails.......

Ok you win.

You have simply no idea about returns and risk management and time timelines on investments.

You have no interest in the effects of dilution and the carry through that has on an eventual valuation assuming a bid ever comes.

This is a gamble still, and always has been. In most portfolios this would take up a very small percentage of the whole (less than 5% (1% would be typical)

If no external funding materialises then its another RI. but at what price? don't know, do you? will they raise £20m or £100m? will the market stand for it or will the discount have to be huge?

Or will it be buy out but if AVCT are under financial pressure do you think they will be able to maximise value?

Anyway, I am back to ignoring you.

"Why has BP paid billions for weaker preclinical assets, but AVA6103 is somehow worth pennies?"

Because its not that relevant. (And I did not say it was worth pennies either but don't let misrepresenting me get in the way of justifying your guess work.)

I don't know the inns and outs of why BP pay the sums they do for different companies. They (the companies) are offering different things, they may not be loss making, they may have greater assets, less liabilities, less expense to market, quicker returns, increased profit margins, better fit with the BP's existing structures/experience, less risk, perceived greater longevity in the market, further down the track with peer reviewed data. Completed trials, market conditions, etc etc etc

Thats what I meant when I said no 2 companies are the same.

Why do similar houses sell for different sums? Some need more money spending on them than others, sometimes its location, sometimes its future planning risks. You get my drift.

(Honestly I thought that was blindingly obvious)

You simply cannot justify any of your guesswork at all.

A nasdaq listing may well boost interest, but that is after the event. How much money do you think AVCT will raise if they go down the nasdaq route? Will it be before or after P1b results? The amount is CRITICAL to overall dilution. Are you for real or are you truly this dumb when it comes to investment returns?

And when you say ".... Avacta’s CEO has stated they can do deals anytime but only on their terms. That’s all the evidence you need that discussions have happened." WHAT!!!!! that is simply made up!!!!!!!!

If the new trial in the future is the big one then what is AVA6k worth? Is it just the very first part of the trial or is to be commercialised on its own?

There are so many unknowns that all then fork off into other potential paths that it is impossible to value AVCT currently.

The fact you can't see that and believe so much in your "research" is very dangerous imo, from a capital protection pov.

D: Well it has been a rollercoaster and a few years late! ha ha. but yes this is looks much better now, (The RSI is in the 90's so I will wait for a pull back). Looks like its worth a punt now.

Well done D on the Washing Machine!

Well, suit yourselves, but you seem "happy" to hear with no grounds or evidence that BP will buy out AVCt for billions, even though to date they have not, even with all the data available.

It seems the 2 options are: In the short term AVCT either get bought out or they get a dual listing via Nasdaq to raise more cash (based on what AVCT have stated).

The 2 look to be mutually exclusive.

Anybody want to argue that?

If they are pushing the US route does that not suggest that there is not a BP offer on the table?

Will AVCT license out the tech? Any evidence that that is under discussion?

If there is a cash raise do we have a view on how much will be raised?

All these questions that none of us can answer demonstrates the ACTUAL lack of knowledge we have. And I think should put Ice's optimism in a better context of pure guesswork.

I am happy for you all to share his view, but wishing does not necessarially make it so.

Ah... so you are going to duck the question.... I thought so.

If there is a nasdaq listing then there is no buyout coming. That means dilution.

If there is a buyout coming and currently we have no evidence AT ALL that there is, then why persist with the costs of joint brokers and telling the market AVCT do want to list?

Its not bashing, its an attempt to explain how a game changing company can still 4 years into a trial be close to all time lows.

How has this investment worked out for you so far?

If you had spare cash now. would you buy AVCT or wait to see what the next dilution/cash raise round would be?

I ask because this is an investment BB, not a place where we just hold hands, sing kumbaya and hope everything turns out well.

This BB is dominated by ICE and his very optimistic guesswork masquerading as factual research. It garners many recs which I presume mean many here think that is therefore helpful

Its not wrong to question the assumptions he is basing this very rosy picture on.

I can't gauge what AVCT tech because I don't know when its coming to market, I don't know what cancers its going to address, I don't know what AVCt will charge and I don't know what the profit margin will be. (I don't know either what alternatives might be available then are not now.)

All Ice's calculations are based on what other companies have bought for other products.

At some stage in any business valuation the metrics I listed above determine "value"

What Ice id doing is guessing what BP might pay in front of all this info that will be needed for them to decide what to pay AVCT for their tech.

Lets assume there is a nasdaq listing this year:

What sort of dilution are you expecting ice? Currently the Mkt Cap is £177m. Or if its easier how much do you think they will want to raise?

Don't duck this please as it fundamentally will affect the SP and therefore the value of LTH's stock.

You see, if there is to be a Nasdaq listing that pretty much means there is no BP buy out coming in the short term. (You don't need to raise money if you have or are just about to sell the company.)

So whats it to be with your great guesswork (sorry reseach)?

Well the close took AGL out of the technical oversold territory (RSI 66.36).

Hopefully we have a good day tomorrow.

Every answer to your own questions are based on the as yet unproven assumption that the technology is worth billions even though the efficacy trial has not started and the pipeline trials are years away.

The single biggest (and constant) flaw in your assessment given you believe its what BP will pay, is why they have not already bought it given you believe the data already available makes this an already proven technology: You say:

"📌 2️⃣ “Big Pharma Hasn’t Moved Yet, So They Must Not Be Interested”

🔹 Counter: That’s not how BP works. They wait for optimal timing, especially when they know they’ll have to pay more if they wait."

By your logic therefore, you/they must be expecting the SP to fall as there is no evidence that BP has placed a bid for the company. Why would that be?

This is still a high risk, loss making bio tech with an experimental new tech that constantly needs funding. The market is littered with slam dunks failing. (There are several precedents for this as you like to cite other companies bought out by BP)

The company's history commercially is poor and one of failure and there has been partial and misleading release of past info on previous tests and trials.

You are making an assumption that there is no hiccup in any of the data, and that you are aware of the full picture and have all the information available that AVCT have.

The constant extension in timelines, added dosages, change of dosing intervals and the sudden unexpected change of Cancer type identified to trial next suggest otherwise and that AVCT with new data emerging, is having to adapt on the hoof. (Which I think is perfectly normal, but at the same demonstrates this is not a paper exercise with the outcome already known, which you feverently believe, but very much a work in progress.)

There has been no stake building for years, the CEO left under a cloud for reasons we are unaware of. And further currently a Short is in play apparently on the company which to date is in the money, a few examples that should cause pause for thought.

Personally I think cautious optimism may be a better way of reviewing AVCT at this stage.

This is interesting because there are 2opposing forces at play (I think)

The first one is that it is in technical over bought territory which suggest a fall is more likely than a rise.

However it has been like that more or less for week and clearly the majority are reluctant to sell so the SP has remained stable with in fact slight increases.

Now we are 24 hours away from what could reasonably be, very good news in enhancing and further validating the AGL tech leading to a material increase in sales.

This should increase buyers putting this even further into oversold territory.

So here's the rub:

Assuming the news is good/very good tomorrow then the SP could jump 20-30% or maybe more?. Then there would almost certainly be a pull back but it might only "fall" to say 20p, making a buy today at around 17p very attractive?

Its impossible to say which way this will go but unless the news/presentation disappoints it would seem further gains are likely.

Likely to pretty volatile over the next few days. (fwiw I added some more imo dyor etc)

Watching, are the 10 days up yet?

(Buying shares in the stock is negative is it... hmm...)

Well, to be fair its a culmination but, I don't think BP are talking behind the scenes just yet as I think that would have leaked by now and CLN would not have been paid in shares.

I thoughts Groots observation made sense which if his conclusion is correct would indicate we are time-wise close to

SP-moving news, and also looking back at Reapers post, also I thought showed good insight and that this joint broker move, given the cost, would not have been done lightly, all adding to a perhaps sooner than I expected, rerate

So Nasdaq may be closer than I had originally thought, and where I think Ice is right to focus on that if/when BP do make a move it will be relatively out of the blue.

And likewise the pipeline drugs are (as I said at the time of the RNS) looking to be a genuine game changer.

Anyway, its all a bit of a game...who knows, but on balance I think the risk reward outcomes (for me) has shifted of less risk and greater reward. (imo dyor etc)

I have decided that some of Ice's arguments are more compelling than my counter(s) so loaded up further this morning.

(The irony is not lost on me that he won't read this. Life's funny like that....)

Best post of the day

Ok:

1:No evidence BP is interested” → No public evidence doesn’t mean no interest. BP never telegraphs negotiations—deals happen behind closed doors until they’re announced.

So your assumption on no public evidence that BP is in fact talking to AVCT. How do you know this?

“Flat SP = No BP Interest” → Wrong. AIM has never correctly priced biotech. BP sets the price when they move, not AIM traders.

I don't even know what you mean: The sp is a reflection of supply and demand. If BP out of the blue offer 200p per share then that's the new value. Likewise if at 100p per share a CR is done at 50p then thats the new price. When results are released the market digests them and then overall a settled price comes about based on the knowledge available.

“Why not pay off CLN in cash?” → Because cash is being preserved for strategic moves—DX sale, potential BP deal, trial funding.

So what happened to BP negotiating in private that only you know about?

Why look at Nasdaq?” → Because U.S. biotech valuations are multiples of AIM. If AIM won’t value the assets properly, Nasdaq investors will.

Surely thats immaterial with your insider knowledge of BP buying out AVCT for billions.

Its a straw man argument on precedent. No 2 companies are the same.

And you think I'm embarrassed. You remind me of the advert.... "What are you...7!"

I haven't said BP isn't interested simply there is no evidence that they are.

You are assuming that a year long, flat to falling SP while at the same time spewing more positive data, means BP are negotiating to buy out AVCT for £billions.

Why aren't AVCT paying off CLN in cash then rather than shares?

Why are AVCT bothering to look at the Nasdaq route?

Because the game is being played... oh for god sake..... grow up.

You don't know (like the rest of us), the first idea whats going on behind the scenes. Its just a fantasy