Member Info for wyndrum

Yes, every bit of circumstantial evidence is dismissed as FUD.

Thats fine , that's all your prerogative to take that view.

However you clearly all have short memories when there were numerous red flags regarding at that time, the LFT progress. That was fud too, by the way.

The case is why has the SP continued to fall for years ever since the trial started in spite of exceptional data ?

Why are there not any TR1's?

What directors have large bought share holdings?

Have there been any unexpected/unforeseen timeline extensions?

Have there been any licensing deals?

Has any offer been submitted?

Has DX been sold?

Has P1b dosing started?

Is everything still going ok with FDA approval? If so when do you expect an update on that?

Will there be further dilution in the next 6 months?

Why did AS leave?

And the SP is still pretty much rock bottom.

But as I say, you can all have erections like the Eiffel Tower while dreaming that it is going to plan and that the only people in the whole world who are aware, are the few on here.

I will continue to wait but the bells are wringing in my ears at least

Its funny but when I cite other bio techs that have failed or had a crushed SP then the response is , its irrelevant because they are not the same as AVCT, but successful buy-outs of other companies not doing what AVCT are, is a bench mark for potential value.

straight yes or no. Do you think P1b dosing has started yet?

Did you expect say this time last year, that it would be dosing in the 2H of 2024?

You won't answer of course. It seems that even when you come to the wrong conclusions in the past it never shakes your belief that you will be right this time in your predictions.

An arrogant gambler... be careful.....

"The biotech market isn’t like other sectors—it’s driven by strategic value, not daily trading sentiment."

the value of the company has been falling for years. Nothing to do with daily trading sentiment.

(By the way i googled this: "Once the application is submitted, the FDA has 6 to 10 months to review the information and decide whether to approve the drug or not. (27 Aug 2024)"

"BP operates on timelines and milestones. They don’t bid preemptively unless there’s competitive pressure. AVA6000 just completed P1a, and AVA6103 is still preclinical—deals at this stage are rare but not unheard of. "

Right, now we are getting to it.... So no competitive pressure and the milestones thus far don't indicate a need to put in an offer.

So everything hangs on p1b and clearly the idea that just making Dox more tolerable is not worth a cent?

So all this valuation twaddle is not guess work then?

Are we all back to this being a high risk bio-tech that needs to confirm efficacy before any chance of SP appreciation?

(Don't be so thick about the 10 days thing at the end of december. Many posters here said it meant that DX had been sold. And I was replying to D not you.)

" AIM’s 45p share price has zero bearing on the fundamental value of AVA6000, AVA6103, or the entire Precision platform"

Aim is not an entity that conveys value to a stock. Aim is just a market place, a vehicle for stock to change hands between interested parties.

Given the SP has fallen ever since the trial started, all investors, including BP have valued AVCT less and less as more and more data has been released. This has culminated to date of a an almost all time low.

Therefore it is clear that to date none of the data has been sufficiently compelling for an offer to be forthcoming.

And as you seem to be obsessed with BP = value, then what if BP put in an offer 3 times the current market cap? would that in your view represent "value"? I guess it would have to because BP said so. God forbid they offered less than the current MC

Still, clever ole BP: "BP isn’t sitting around reading AIM forums for investment advice, they’re waiting for the right data points before making their move" Which your implying the right data points have not yet been reached, which in turn suggests P1a is not enough.

Why is P1a not enough for BP? Even if it just makes it more tolerable which we knew after Cohort 2 and certainly by the end of Cohort 4? What are they waiting for?

Why hasn't the FDA already approved the tech.? Normally its 6-10 months. Its been way, way longer than that.

What do you think reaction would be if FDA approval was not granted? Is that an option? or in your world do you always dismiss any event that contradicts your one and only view?

You kill me...

"The entire biotech industry values assets preclinically and at every stage of development. If you think valuation only happens after full trials, you don’t understand how BP operates."

then why as it is clearly in your view an absolute 100% nailed on, no need to do any thing else, certainty that it is successful and that P1b dosing is already happening, that the SP is still 45p and indeed edging down?

Is it because BP are unaware of the trial? If not and they are aware of the trial and results then why is the SP 45p

Its a far more interesting conversation to have to explain a reality than a several years out forecast based on rolling 6 x 6's in a row.

D, I'm not sure why the FDA have not already approved it. Why submit it in the first place on P1a data if it was always going to be dependent on P1b results?

It might just be me (it normally is here), but I seem to be the only one that expected when P1a completed in Q2 2024, that P1b dosing would start soon after (end of Q3 at the latest) and that we would be getting the results by the end of Q1 2025.

I don't know why it seems not to have started. was everybody else expecting a 9 month hiatus?

My best guess is there were, right from the very beginning, some unexpected results from patient to patient causing the extra cohorts and 2wd regime to try and better understand the vagaries of the results.

The safety part does seem to be have been completed successfully and has been often highlighted, just making dox more tolerable should be enough, and yet it seems that is not the case. Which then to me, infers, dox does not universally behave in the same way as expected when delivered straight to the tumour. It may be in some cases it is less effective?

So i think everything, absolutely everything, hinges on P1b now and as a result there is still ongoing deliberation on what to dose and to who. AVCT obviously, want to make this next part of the trial as successful as possible and I imagine are cherry picking as much as they can, the most ideal candidates to ensure that the results will be as uniform and as good as possible.

To me all this underlines the premature exercise of trying to value AVCT.

Something is not going quite to plan and in fact never has done (or at least it has never gone to the plan we were told from the BoD as shareholders)

It also strikes me that the DX companies may have been bought at a big premium, as vehicles to quickly get that AVCT DX tech to market, but if the AVCT tech is also not performing to expectation, it might be a reason as to why the amount paid by AVCT was too much and why maybe, it seems to be hard to sell the companies on at a price that won't further harm the SP? (I am making a lot of guesses there clearly, but again I am just trying to figure out why nothing AVCT does seems to benefit shareholders.)

If my guess is near the truth it might be why BP is waiting for proof of efficacy in the trial before any sort of commitment, given the failure thus far of any commercial success in any other area.

Interesteing D, thanks.

The bit that caught my eye:

"and has not fulfilled the expectations from the results in animal models efficacy-wise. This discrepancy may be due to the large dose gap between mice and humans and the apparent variability of the EPR effect in human cancer."

It might explain why everyone is waiting on ACTUAL results and not speculative years forward-looking assumptions.

Oh, and is the 10 days up yet? And has P1b dosing even started?

Tr1 out.

Let me know when we have one and i'll join you!

Ok, I thought that 2 but wasn't sure if there was amore accurate consensus.

I'm just trying to get a handle on when dosing starts how long is it likely to be? 6 weeks? 3 months?

How long from the first dosing does it take to get released info?

Aw shucks, thanks liam.... :0))

"ALL shorts closed, what does that tell you ;)"

That all the shorts are closed?

Me too (£124.16p)

Well, fwiw, I have the largest holding I have ever had (in money) in this stock presently so I'm all for us holding hands and singing Kumbya if it helps the SP go up.....:0))

"The DX sale is taking longer, sure, but that’s negotiation, not incompetence it’s still progressing."

there is absolutely no evidence that that is so.

Never a bad thing to take profit, ever.

The trick as I have said before is to try and buy loss making companies when they have finished their need to raise any more cash as that ourts a floor under the SP. It looks that way to me on this stock now.

If (always if), they can turn a £3-5m profit then the stock easily 10 bags, the risk reward look excellent for returns greater than that over the next 18 months. Personally as a rule i prefer to average up than down, so am prepared to add as the good news forecasted, arrives.

PS: (Are you in HE1?)

Yes its very high D and as you know I believe that to be the most reliable indicator but 2 things happened.

When you alerted me to the news it went into oversold territory and then just to always remind me its an odds game and not written in stone, went up another 10% (into the 90's!) then fell a tiny amount but had quite an effect on the RSI to low 80's (still very high/overbought).

Anyway, it demonstrated that the pull back would not have to be that large to make it "buyable" again.

So this morning as it has resolutely refused to be sold off over the last few days I went through the interview and decided now was potentially ok to buy.

I have held some back so that if it does fall I will top up lower down but clearly one order or one more piece in the jigsaw, coming through, that the company expects and this will rise, I think based on the market cap, quite dramatically and so right now I am putting the RSI to one side until the dust settles.

I am not one to break rules that have served me well, so I do feel a tinge of emotional greed getting the better of me but I have tried (like all gamblers do), to rationalise and justify why this makes sense... :0))

Its an odds game, some times the unlikely bet pays off. Long as I don't make a habit of it ...

Its silly, but there is something rewarding about buying a stock and almost immediately being in profit... (I know it doesn't matter when, like I have, I will give this 12 months), but still......