Member Info for wyndrum

WG: Certainly they were chronically over sold (16 RSI I think). It does look like they will accept what ever Sidara offer so there looks to be more upside, unless a deal can't be struck....

The thing that this highlights is that once a company gets into financial difficulty they are at the mercy of the market and it is difficult to be in charge of their own destiny.

a few months ago they were over 200p then a sharp fall to 130p then another sharp fall to 67p.

I imagine a deal, given the low was 24p will be around 50-70p. So great if you bought at the lows but not so good for LTH's It reminds me of the potential peril of another company we have followed for years but the majority can never see that outcome ever happening when in fact, in the right circumstance, which really are not that rare, it could easily fall to half what it is now and be bought out at a price that would still stuff LTH's while the Patents live on, but under a new name.

Still not bothered with SEE and in truth its still pretty easy money in defence stocks (look at the way BA. RR. and BAB have done.....

You still there Vert? So you are sure dosing has started.... for a fact...?

Its just I don't want to waste the Doctors time.

I think it would be great Van.

I have long believed that the trick on loss making companies is to wait until the last cash raise has taken place and then buy. Of course you can never know for sure and all these type of companies are advised into what they can and can't say to string along the gullible/greedy investor.

In this particular instance I think there is a good chance CPX is there. I thought for a fist month % increase in sales looked promising and I am hoping that that will increase each month.

(I am intrigued by the "more news in 2 weeks" remark, but this is also a typical remark out of the "string-em-along with vague tittle-tattle" playbook, so I will wait until next week to see what, if anything is revealed.)

Joking aside, obviously to have a recognised Swiss partner now on board looks to have removed a fair amount of risk as its not in their interest to see their current shareholding diluted. It would be better for them to loan CPX any money necessary to get to profitability if it were needed (and cheaper).

Then you have the relatively low market cap which allows for significant re-rate should profits hove into view.

Finally I like using charts to try and help time entry and exit and around this price looks good to me. (fwiw I added at 13.4p recently)

So as always, its just an odds game, but I do like the odds presently on this one. (imo dyor etc etc)

Vertz so you know for a fact then that dosing has started based on the 16/01 RNS "Avacta has initiated three Phase 1b expansion cohorts in triple negative breast cancer, soft tissue sarcoma and salivary gland cancer in the first and second line setting. Patients are screening and the first patients to be treated in these expansions are expected imminently in the US."

I agree Vert if your point is once accepted/screened successfully onto the trial then dosing would happen quickly thereafter, which suggests (maybe?) that screening had only just started in mid Jan?

if that is so then maybe the last 6 months has been only about fixing the parameters of P1b?

As always I just don't understand any positive reason for ambiguity or any opaqueness in this type of statement.

Hi D, did you stay away from SEE or did you succumb?

Sam: 16th Jan RNS " Avacta has initiated three Phase 1b expansion cohorts in triple negative breast cancer, soft tissue sarcoma and salivary gland cancer in the first and second line setting. Patients are screening and the first patients to be treated in these expansions are expected imminently in the US."

My recollection prior to that statement was that was some confusion (here) as to whether or not dosing had already started.

I know tyou wern't Ben but when you said/accused Thorn of "...you do this for fun rather than financial gain." The irony made me laugh.

Sorry, funniest thing I have heard here for along time. All you po-faced bio pharma tech experts stuck in a company that has only ever disappointed for years, yet always defended with, "ah.. but this time it is different...." Or , equally amusing, its "Fud is running on fumes" (And that's before we get to "I'm an investor, not a Trader" .

Anyway, very funny, so thanks for that

Vanilla: "..anything is possible on AIM as it has no correlation to fundamentals. "

Aim is just a market place where people can exchange share holdings. More of an insight is to who use Aim ie who does it attract?

For a start it attracts companies who are likely to need free money to get their product to a state of profitability. To make this happen regulations need to be less here than other markets so as to make RI's easier to market with less legal recourse when it all goes tits up.

That in turn does not immediately attract "serious" or large investors.

Fundamentals don't really apply to loss making companies. All you have is potential based on a number of assumptions coming to pass, none of which are guaranteed.

People complain AIM is a casino, well, yes it is and look who turns up to play? (Us, the small PI's) That very fact should be instructive to our real nature.

"..you do this for fun rather than financial gain."

How has the SP reacted over the length of the trial?

This lazy and mis-representative way of dealing with every potential fly in ACT's ointment as FUD is not really very helpful.

Has the trial gone on much longer than originally forecast: Yes

Have there been more cash raises and dilution than expected: Yes

Have AVCT ever been profitable: No

Has any of AVCT's tech to date been commercially viable: No

Have they a track record of being at best, partial with the truth: Yes

Is their PR dept any good: No

Are their comms generally now or in the past, been good: No

Has the SP increased on the back of "good/positive data during the Trial: No

And the only reason given to ignore the above is, its all fud, and AIM is the wrong market (although its not, as this is where loss making companies go to, so as to be able to raise money when needed.) Oh, and the market is as thick as mince.

Its still a punt

Sammy, I just see a glass and decide if its worth drinking. When you use analogies of half full/half empty, i get it, but in this field (investing), I try very hard not to let emotion dictate what i see before me. There should be no room for being positive or negative. For me its about what I know and then, on what is most likely to result from it.

I do have a lot of experience in this game and being "positive" for the sake of it, tends to be a bloody expensive attitude to take.

I don't know if the telegram group have spoken to CC. I am not part of the group and therefore have only the word of strangers, some of whom may have ulterior motives.

What we do know was that as there was an RNS stating that dosing had not started then I think it is entirely logical to expect one when it has. (My guess is that the market needed an update on whether dosing has started or not as a fair amount of time has/had passed since P1a completed mid last year. I base that on the fact that the RNS referred to it at all, as it seems a bit odd to RNS something that has not happened. The best reason I can think of in that situation is because, due to the lack of info, an assumption was being made that the dosing had in fact started and as I said earlier, it is very important to know if dosing is taking place as it has a direct timeline to when to expect a market update on the first indication of efficacy.

Sammy, I have no idea if the Telegram group really spoke to CC or not.

Can you imagine the reaction here if some other (or even the same) group claimed to have spoken to CC and reported back, bad news?

The BoD has a duty to do the best for (all) its shareholders. This stock as an investment has failed dismally over the years due in most part I think to the constant push back i trial times/results. The market would look favourably to any significant news such as the start of dosing in the next phase of the trial.

And that is because you can then project when the first results/ Data is likely to be forthcoming.

It is to me, inconceivable that you RNS that dosing hasn't started, but is expected imminently, and then not RNS it when it has.

Looks like its unwinding now. (It was always most likely to happen.)

Sammy, imo, P1b is now the single most important trial in AVCT's history. There is no indication dosing has started and the ambiguous statements from CC inferred that it would be RNS'd and that has not happened yet. If it has not started, then, obviously, it puts back the first data results.

We can argue/take a view on how instructive or not the current SP is, but over the years, the longer the trial has run so has the SP fallen. That suggests to me either the results are in fact disappointing or the time being taken to achieve results sufficient to make the market appreciate what AVCT has got, is running significantly behind schedule, which then has knock on effects in other areas mainly the financial stability of the company.

As the results look very encouraging I assume its the latter.

If I am correct, its been about 6 weeks since dosing was imminently expected to start. that looks to me, like an unforeseen delay.

All these delays add up quickly to potentially having a material effect on the finances of the company.

It is quite possible that there is much good news going on behind the scenes with some sort of deal or structure of future finance.

However, I think the market is wary because the dilution needed to carry this beyond P1b might be considerable if no non-dilutive finance is realised and therefore need some reassurance that an investment now won't be worth materially less in 6 months.

Until AVCT are profitable, then its all and only about the money. BP are notoriously ruthless and sometimes criminal in realising their own self interest. Never forget that.

"stirring things up with third party assumptions and speculation. .... i will stick with rns’s.

So your analysis is based on the assumptions of trials that have not even started yet. It includes a focus on a relatively rare form of cancer? Could that be because the results are not as broad based as we may have been led to believe? (I don't know but is it a possibility?)

As for sticking to RNS's, well, which ones? Just the latest? in which case your strategy can only be reactive, but that not true because as I say , you are making assumptions based on the results of a trial that has not even started yet.

It won't be 40p by year end.....

Well it can't be anything important or it would be insider trading info.

I'm sorry but it does beg the question, if the tech is so good and AVCT have all the cards then why hasn't BP got its check book out? Why won't they do a better deal?

They don't see the value that AVCT does. But AVCT is not going to get its Non-dilutive funding without a deal. so what now? Who wins and who loses from this supposed impasse.

And that just assumes that the negotiations were as sharp as we would HOPE they have been. For all we know, they put in a (low) offer, it was rejected and they have never come back? Its what I keep coming back to.

We have no idea whats going on and our own bias (mine included), leads us to make assumptions based on really, very little.

The only assumptions I am basing my views on, is the down trend in the SP over the whole course of the trial (and thats negative no matter how you dress it up), the unexpected length of the trial, which can, I concede, be seen for and against, but again historically delays don't often presage good news. And historically this company when in radio silence does not augur well. It does not mean it will be in this case but I am only going on what this co. has said and acted on, in the past.

Did they not say news in the next 2 weeks, a week ago?

"I'll say again....how much would Novartis or anyone from Big Pharma pay if the IP and patents were offered, straight over the table?????"

How would I know? Have they offered anything? if not why not? Are we all agreed that P1b hasn't started dosing yet?

If that succeeds great, if it fails... then what?