Member Info for wyndrum

I dunno, EC but I thought there were quite a few BP's looking at AGL?

We see it differently. You assume you think you know more than the market and I assume they know more than me.

Doesn't stop me buying and selling but I guess it gives me a different perspective than you.

"yet the price is going sideways....."

is it? the last highs were:

10.07. 24 @ 82.5p

28.08.24 @77p

13.09.24 @75p

16.10.24 @ 65p

06.06.2025 @ 57p

So lower highs.

The last lows in the same period:

17.07.24 @ 65p

05.08.24 @ 57p

26.09.24 @ 50p

02.10.24 @ 44p

13.12.24 @ 43p

18.02.24 @ 39p

All lower lows.

its up or down depending on which way you hold the chart but it is not sideways...

(Traditionally people do actually hold it the right way up and therefore most would agree, it is in a downward trend.)

EC, brace your self... the market can see.

Its always the markets fault when a SP does not match the individuals own assessment.

Rarely does the individual consider they be wrong....

I don't know what you mean Chris.

Some people "care" at times on my posts.

I think what you mean is YOU don't care about what I post.

What did you think about the Swazzers post? and Ice's predictions?

I am guessing because they told you you would all be better off you quite liked them?

What has the SP since then?

(Heres a clue, it has fallen further.)

But hey, who cares?

I kind of agree Touk, but I have long felt that investment is an invented word to basically mean less of a gamble then say going to a casino.

Personally I think back in the day it was a word that made gambling look respectable for the well off who had disposable income and did not want to be tarred with the same brush as the hoi polloi.

All stock market companies are inherently risky esp nowadays in such a fast moving world. (BP was only hours away from going bust when the oil rig exploded.) And thats as blue chip as it gets, back then anyway. Dividends can be stopped, stocks can fall in value. We would then say its been a bad investment.

To me a gamble is betting on something without a known outcome. Obviously some returns are more likely to occur than others such as Govt bonds, bank savings accounts etc, but even then we had an almost financial meltdown, so what I can tell you?

They are just words and as I say personally I think "investing" is a dressed up form of gambling but makes the person who uses it feel a bit better about themselves and pretends it confers some sort of respectability when in conversation than referring to themselves as gamblers.

But hey, who cares?

I think definitions of gambling/investing ends up dancing on the head of a pin.

I find it helpful to, if I were going to use the word invest/investing, in a sentence, to use the word spend/spending instead and see if it still makes sense.

Personally I think (in our context) you invest a sum of money in a stock, gambling you will get a higher return at some later date. Various stocks come with different levels of risks and likely outcomes.

How can you be a de-ramper when the SP has been in a down trend for 4 years?

Is it not more accurate to say, the doubts expressed at the time have turned out to be accurate?

Thats fair I think AVCT, but the only point I would make is that P1b has started and dosing can't be far away ergo some data in the next 3-6 months.

I do find it odd that therefore there is a lack of buying pressure which even if it was slow and a bit zig - zag, would not be showing a in increase through perhaps higher highs and higher lows.

To be in the mid 50's would not seem such an ask but that's a 30% climb from where we are currently.

So I accept what you say but the level of disconnect of the SP action/ direction seems very counter -intuitive to me.

Occams razer and all that

"Would it have been helpful to have been more open minded to views you did NOT want to hear or acknowledge."

(Missed out a fairly important word in the original post...sorry)

Last try:

If you knew then, what you know now, would you have bought back then?

Would it have been helpful to have been more open minded to views you did want to hear or acknowledge.

This ship has sailed but there will be other investment opportunities. Everyday a school day and all that.

There you go, no recognition that I was FACTULLY accurate and that this still represents a very high risk to investors capital.

I don't understand that posters can post any assumption they like (with often little facts to back it up) to demonstrate an improving SP but you can't accept a post that says, hold on, none of this makes sense with the backdrop and history of the company to date.

But, thats up to you.

B2H: "Always look for an excessive number of question marks. They highlite a FUD generating post."

I know you read my posts otherwise you would not comment. So here's the thing.

I respond with questions in direct response to posters "assertions".

If somebody is claiming that certain things are happening as facts, such as BP are watching this stock, or BP will move when the time is right, or it is AIM itself that is the reason for the low SP, I then respond asking how they KNOW these things.

The amount oif questions I pose in a post is in direct alignment with spurious assumptions portrayed as facts.

I have no, absolutely no problem with anyone's opinion. but if they justify it with what I see as gaps or breakdown in logic then I ask for clarification through questions.

This is not FUD.

The funny thing is, the questions are rarely if ever answered and most often the response is a bit like yours, ie dismiss it all as a deliberate attempt to be disingenuous rather than recognising the previous post was just assumptive wishful thinking.

The facts are this company has never succeeded yet commercially, has always missed its own timelines, and has a track record of poor communication that has been an attempt to over look bad news. It has coincided with afalling SP and regular cash raises and dubious commercial decisons.

For shareholders to date it has been a dog. Can they turn it around? Maybe. But for me it is very much in the balance because if the data to sate was as good as we are led to believe it is inconcievable that the SP would be falling through every part of the trial updates.

The most obvious conclusion is that there is stuff going behind the scenes that we are not privy to and that maybe the data is more ambiguous then we realise. Thats my conclusion to date.

I don't think any of that is contentious, based on what we "know" and what we see around us in timelines and SP reactions spread over many years.

Ok ice, as its all done and dusted what are the results of P1b?

Why given safety is already proven and there are encouraging signs of efficacy in P1a, has P1b dosing not even started as we start to approach Q2

Why is the SP so low given the whole world knows (according to you) how fantastically good this tech is? are you honestly saying that the lack of TR1's and any substantial buying over the last 4 years indicates that it is everyone elses fault the SP has deteriorated. BP is watching? Are they? How do you actually KNOW that?

It is an assumption that they are. Why haven't they made their move yet then?

How low does the SP have to fall to, before they decide to bid?

Or is it because there is not enough data yet?

Your utterly fatuous argument is that aim (which is just a market place after all),is to blame for the low SP is stupid., because if the SP was 250p on the back of the trial progressing we would say Aim is working fine.

you use lazy illogical, badly thought through reasoning to attempt to support a wildly biased view point.

So you can keep pretending your faulty analysis combined with you never having been right yet, is the only outcome. You are badly deluded.

Hi vanilla, the chart going back a year has bummmled along at around 13-14p with the odd spike and fall around those numbers.

Yesterdays rise was welcome from a TA perspective if you are long, but it is still very much in a range.

If it could settle at 15-16p in the short term that would start to be much more positive and ultimately a break and hold above 18p would then show a lot of evidence that the bottom at 13p was the floor.

From a FAS pov the market needs to be convinced that there will be no more dilution so either we have to wait for the next TU or, a big order comes in.

Patience is still required by the look of things.... (imo, dyor etc)

"I back my views with hard data, industry benchmarks, and logical reasoning."

No you don't. All you have used is industry benchmarks. The "hard data is inconclusive and many more pheases of trials and new trials still need to be undertaken. There is no "logical" reasoning because you are making assumptions on unknown data.

All you have done is provide a very positive for investors, scenario where if a multitude of pieces fall into place, then great returns will result.

It is not remotley a foregone conclusion and is there is a myriad of circumstantial specific evidence to show your conclusion unlikely.

(An industry bench mark might also include the rate of failure too).

And when you then say: "And seriously, the fact that Phase 1b isn’t even on the corporate milestones, is that blinkered thinking or just cold reality?"

P1b, is the single now, most important trial that AVCT have ever undertaken. The whole future of the company rests on the results.

I would say from start to finish P1b is THE milestone for AVCT.

If the results are truely as we all hope they might be, then this stock will be transformed. If there is is ambiguous data then... well, who knows...

Bit early to get excited over the chart imo.

What I do prefer is that the market was prepared for the underwhelming update, hence the slow but steady sell of. This suggests to me that the current SP reflects where the company is today.

I would expect sales to increase over time (the next 6-12 months) from January's first involvement with their new distributor.

All in all , on balance I think there is much better chance of going up than down from here.

Just my opinion dyor etc

"...and the past is completely irrelevant. What’s done is done."

Ok so I borrow £10 off you and promise to pay next week. Next week comes around and you ask for the tenner and I say I'll give to net week, ok, you say.

Next week comes and I say I'll give you the £10 in 2 weeks. Ok you say.

About 12 days in you ask if we are still on for the tenner to be repaid and I say no its going to be a bit longer.

You mention this to a friend and they ask if you think based on never getting your money back over several promises, that the tenner will ever end its way back in your pocket and you say: "... the past is completely irrelevant. What’s done is done."

Now, does that sound naive to you? Because if it doesn't... lends me a tenner would you, I promise I will it pay it back next week....

"I actually enjoy dismantling people like you and Thorn"

Wow, you really do have cards on yourself don't you! You come across to me as genuinely deluded both in your thought process and indeed how you see the world.

Your refusal ever to accept what has gone on previously and never to actually THINK why AVCT say the things they do and then don't deliver is just more evidence of a closed mind that is blocking out all rational thought.

Still if it makes you happy to think you know better than everyone else then ok... I guess....but what you don't display is logical trains of thought.

You only see one outcome and you base that outcome without anywhere near all the info available and then won't even consider any alternative.

And you really think you are that smart? Like I said...Wow....

So as you always dodge a question: Why can't you say when you expected P1b to start?

Is it so hard for you to admit hat you may have got an expectation wrong?

I am not trying to trip you up. based on what AVCT said, which was P1a to finish in Q2 I assumed (incorrectly as it turns out, fine), that it would start dosing in Q3. I may have underestimated the time to enrol patients but I again it would seem incorrectly assumed, that a lot (or some) of that would or could done in the last few weeks of P1A.

In any event end of Q3 sometime in early mid Q4 would seem reasonable? or was I being over optimistic?

I don't remember there being a 9 month delay before. This is still apart of phase 1 after all.

To simply put your hands over your ears so you can't hear anything, really does to me at least, re-enforce your blind optimism to this stock.

Its not dressed up. it is rational analysis.

you have invested here for years.

Did you expect P1B to be dosing in 2024? yes or no, its not a trick question?

So its now 2025 mid Jan, At this stage, due to no information did you assume that P1b had started but you were relaxed because you don't expect a running commentary and having your hand held?

When the a day or so later in Mid Jan and it was "expected imminently" to start were you surprised? and if not did you think those comments meant in the next few days or so?

If over a month later and it still has not started what conclusion do you draw?