Member Info for wyndrum

Self employed restaurateur, trampoline instructor, Bond trader, pro musician, banker (easy now,) Communication sales, bits and bobs, the normal stuff

Ah, so thats your latest put down.. That I am older than you... (You must laugh at old WB.)

To be fair most posters judging by your posting style suggests they are older than you.

But Yes, we have to go back deep in the mists of time to realise that the BoD have implied one thing with something quite different to expectation following....

"Judge us in 6 months...."

I am not sure it is "screaming something not right" .

The market cap reflects Rukwa potential. so the US, MC -wise, is a bit of a side show, imo.

The granting of the license was priced in but the market expected (I think) at last, the expected value of the discovery which is still under wraps.

Given the market hates uncertainty, is that because the cost of extraction means the value is not as great as hoped for?

Or, it could be that the TG have, with this info already, done a deal with HE1 on how to exploit the discovery and again that might be more onerous than hoped for? (Certainly it gave, to use an expression through the granting of the ML, the TG "all the cards".)

So the in my experience when there is uncertainty the market will always assume a negative outcome until told differently and that is what is likely going on here.

It is disappointing for shareholders because bit by bit we keep clearing the various hurdles (ie discovery, flow rates, ML etc etc) and yet the SP does not react as we expect. However, we always have the same 2 options as the whole market does. atb

I didn't say you did Largo, but Ice did, so given the bounce I simply wanted to ascertain if every rise is "genuine" and every fall "manipulated."

(Also I mentioned it was oversold at close yesterday.)

And please don't concern yourself over my timing when i buy and sell.

I take it Largo after yesterdays manufactured, artificial fall, that the rise today is genuine and not manipulated?

"The SP is being artificially suppressed to exploit the silent period, plain and simple."

And how do you know that?

Who benefits from "The SP is being artificially suppressed..." Not the Market makers as they make on the spread and why can't they manipulate the stock higher rather than always, always, ever only downwards?

This is yet another example of you spouting a baseless opinion as fact without acknowledging you could in fact and almost certainly are, wrong. You are just making up and accusing some people of illegal activity without a shred of evidence. Think about that for a second, would you? You are not an MP who has immunity to this sort of rubbish.

And consider the more likely alternative, its just people selling the stock and buyers not wanting to buy at the levels offered, so push for lower prices.

Is there a raise coming? None of us know except at some stage in the next 12 months something has to happen. and further this company with its slower than expected progress makes ordinary investors NATURALLY wary.

The CLN loan was done when the SP was 120p if memory serves, The dilution now at 30 odd p, is 4 times as great.

If AVCT does have to come back to the market to get this over the line then at what price and what further dilution?

No on knows. These unknowns for rational investors, change the conditions of the premise from their original purchase.

Its hardly surprising, right or wrong, that some may decide to call it a day. Goodness knows their patience has been stretched to beyond breaking point. And remember through all this, is that AVCT have no interest whatsoecer in the Pi's.

They are on AIM only to get free money for as long as they can to get their product to market (if they can). Its not about the PI.

We just parasitically try and time the buying and selling of this stock to make a profit. If we do its a happy conicidence.

What its not, is an "investment" as the returns for LTH's so clearly demonstrate over the last 10 years.

"back in my day… avacta were making the lft, and it failed. remember, it failed! it could happen again, you know!”

ice, its not that it failed, it was how avct reported to us that it was the best test in the world and that it did not use antibodies. that a new version would come out, that deals were done already and being inked.

the subject of all this (the lft) is immaterial, its the experience of what the company says and what takes place that has always been my point.

so when you say: "the trial is ongoing, nothing has changed" how do you know that? you believe the silence is a good thing although historically from this company the reverse has been true. you don't ever see a delay yet this trial has been goin over 4 years and its only phase 1.

you simply wish to believe that there can only be one outcome, when in fact there are several.

so by all means carry on taking the ****, but always remember, i am not as stupid as you look.

"Anyone who thinks AIM reflects a company’s true value is absolutely delusional! 💯🤣"

so why do you buy Aim stocks?

You think (presumably) you know better than the majority. and you know when a SP is pretty much at its most disconnected/ lowest price.

What was the price you paid for the your first tranche of AVCT, and your second and your third?

I just want to get a handle on how or why you buy stocks that are you believe are valued whimsically by everyone else.

The implication also seems to be, you have never bought a stock that has gone wrong either, as you can see through Aim (and presumably other markets) constant and never ending mis pricing.

JFK, well the RSI has fallen to 23.78 so yes now its in oversold territory.

Is it time to buy? Personally as it has been falling 8 of the last 9 trading sessions, and it shows no sign yet of bottoming out I would not rush in. dyor etc

Mich, i bought at 130p in august/sept when the LFT looked like happening, and then by around november maybe, cant remember, it dawned on me that this was tradeable and it bounced around 100p and I bought at 103 and carried buying on the way up and started selling after it peaked and started to fall at around 258p with the vast majority gone at 199p.

Since then I have been in and out and made a few bucks more in amongst the bad calls but it has been much harder as it has been in a downtrend.

Nothing i post about my trades is believed anyway, so why do you, or anyone care?

Yeah and I offloaded when it was clear that I had made a mistake.

Thats what traders do.

We recognise we don't know whats going on. Take our cue from the SP as thats real, and try and play the odds.

If the SP falls rather than rises then guess what... a wrong decision has been made and you sell, take the loss and start again.

I understand LTH's but a lot of you seem to struggle with the concept of TA and shorter timescales. you win some, you lose some, the trick is to win more than you lose.

Its less emotional than many here seem to be about AVCT.

To me its just a ticket that I will cash in for a profit or a loss.

Oh... I don't know... forever?

I know we are all grown up here but be careful.

None of us know whats going on so any move could be a dead cat bounce before further falls.

Its one thing to gamble and try and trade but the spread works against the risk reward. This is a sharp move down following on from a slow decline around the 40p support that has slowly been eroded until there were no buyers left , hence the drop.

Surely just wait to see how this plays out?

It is looking like something is happening, but then you have to buy into the SP meaning something, which not everyone agrees with.

I think there are 2 reasons (if the SP is foretelling something), one, there is a cash raise imminent, which even though time-wise may not be necessary right now, you don't leave it until the last minute either and typically its often 12-9 months prior to actually needing it, that you try and get it away so there is time for plan B...Whatever that would be...

Or there is a delay/problem with P1b Dosing.

Take your pick, I am sure there could be others and certainly one of them that this is blind selling on the basis that "somebody knows something, so I had better get out" syndrome.

See, for all the research, we never have a clue as to what's actually going on.

Personally the one thing I wanted was to know why AS left. (Because it is never a positive for the SP when the CEO leaves unexpectedly)

I think/guess it can only be for "bad" reasons. ie better to take a hit on the SP and get him out.

I am not sure it was the last raise at 50p, maybe it was the straw and and the camel, but there seemed too much time gone by and once it was done, well it was done and the cash was raised and on we go.

The DX division, well, again that is meant to be cash neutral now and even more time had elapsed so I can't see that being the reason, (Ie what does avct get out of it for the disruption of the ceo leaving), except for maybe they said it had to be sold and he said it would show him in such a very light he felt he had to resign? Its possible.

The last reason I can think of is that the bigger shareholders lost confidence in his ability to take the trial forward. That, to me, is the worst case scenario, because it meant they stoped trusting what he said. and therefore maybe the trial results have been over hyped or manipulated to show a biased result. They have never been peer reviewed and the SP has never reacted positively to an update, so there is for me anyway, some circumstantial evidence that might support that guess.

Look, I don't know if P1b dosing has started or not, I don't think anyone here knows, but in any event its March 2025 and there are a lot of guesses going on because we have very little definitive knowledge.

As I have said before, it does not have to be ambiguous, it is a clear decision the BoD make when they word RNS's. So when its open to interpretation then that's a red flag, (or should be) for investors.

Yes AIM is not the Pi's friend, thats very true, but it is difficult imo to lay the SP decline over the last 4 years at the door of MM's, bed wetters, shorters and the like.

The SP in hindsight usually tells the story, just like a who-dun-it, sometimes you don't have to wait to the final reel to see who did, in fact do it...

JFK, the spread stops this being a day trading stock. As a result although the RSI will be accurate within that timescale that you are quoting, the buy/sell price will prohibit any likely chance of profit.

You use the timeframe on the charts for the likely time you expect to hold the stock. (Personally I typically work on holding stock from a few days to a few months and therefore use the close of day RSI to inform my judgement as to what will likely happen next. That's why I was not overwhelmed with the recent "Swazzers" interpretation of the chart as no reversal had been clearly shown so the downward trend was still in place and therefore more likely than not to continue.)

Look, its not that something out of the blue can't happen and transform the SP, of course it could and by the nature of what AVCT is trying to do the odds of that happening are higher than other stocks.

However the norm, the average, the odds, are that a continually falling SP is happening because of the fundamentals of the company and that something is most likely ary.

It could just be something as normal as a RI and there is some more dilution coming while they carry on getting this over the line.

To most investors, and I know you all count yourselves in that bracket, capital preservation is the no. 1 rule.

JFK the RSI is generally accepted in TA books as anything over 70 is over bought and anything below 30 is over sold, however, it has further explanation that on an up trend the range for the two extremes is 80/40, so on a retrace you would top up at 40 or below on the RSI.

On a downtrend the range move to 60/20, so if the RSI was 20 or below you would say it was over sold and buy for a likely bounce.

In my experience just using 80/20 works pretty well almost all the time, irrespective of the trend, either up or down.

in any event an RSI of 37 is not oversold let alone way oversold.

Tim, something is unravelling or do you think this is all going to plan?

Just for once stop being so boringly sarchastic. 4 odd years in to the first phase £200m spent and a 35p SP

Because here's the thing. If you knew now what you knew then when you bought, you would not have.

JFK, why do you think 37 on the RSI is "way oversold"?