Member Info for wyndrum

Because not every poster here is represented by the few who clearly get off by being so abusive and enjoy the bully mentality it fosters and deserve to be shown up with their imbecilic logic and hypocrisy

And why shouldn't I stand up and defend the constant character attacks on me for simply having a different view to them?

Morning Liam,

Could be interesting day to day. fingers crossed we get a definitive break out.

Ah... that would explain the semi... Thanks Jan

Thanks Jan....I don't think I have ever ramped as strongly as that before... (I'm a bit of a novice in that aspect....) :0)

P.S., sorry if this turns out to be the kiss of death......

Hi Van,

well, the bad case scenario is that sales don't really materialise, however the fact they already sell Millions of $ each year suggests somebody wants their product and the immediate bump in sales in January suggest maybe more want them too and the hold back was more of a logistics/marketing problem.

Plus Shurter would not have got involved with a dud product.

So while sales (or lack of) could be a problem going forward, to me the circumstantials make that unlikely.

Its a personal thing and it does not mean my anlaysis will turn out to be right, but I try and game out (as I am sure many here do too), various scenarios but concentrate on the "bad" ones.

It seems to me there are lots of shares with huge potential to gain when you go hunting for them, but not so many with such a small mkt cap which in turn allows for massive appreciation without having to go into the realms of fantasy.

If I can reduce/eliminate (eliminate is a bit strong!), the downside, then the risk/reward becomes overwhelming. and thats when I tend to put in much larger stake.

This looks pretty good to me on the info available. (imo dyor etc etc)

"Nah no deal, misses the point of what the 50/50 was trying to argue (equal chance good vs bad)."

those were the 2 options and in the silence we cannot know which one it is. So you can assume what you like, and you can justify why you think your preferred guess is more likely but that was not what I was saying.

I just wanted to highlight that in the absence of any info, the default explanation goes to "I bet there is a deal going on in the background", or there is an "NDA in operation" etc etc

I further pointed out that silence has only ever resulted in unexpectedly disappointing news. Whether that will be the case here I have no idea.

Why you lot are always so keen to invent positive scenario's on the back of no information given the history to date, is always a bit of a mystery to me.

I am never sure if you think this psychic approach to silence makes you think how well "researched" you are as opposed to maybe just guessing.

WNW, I am not sure I agree with your logic.

They already have a large holding in the CPX so a rise in the SP simply gives them a paper profit.

If they had wanted to buy out CPX, given the tiny Mk cap, then they could have done that at any time over the last few months.

if they do want to buy out CPX then whatever the SP is then, its going to go up a lot as the market will see the value to Shurter, so its difficult I would have thought for Shurter to try and foresee what price they would have to do a deal and under what conditions.

CPX could refute it and look elsewhere, or go it alone. To me there are too many variables and unknowns in your scenario for any sort of guaranteed success to get CPX on the cheap.

Plus I don't think Schurter have form for this way of operating either.

I see a buy out at relatively low levels if sales are slower than expected and CPX need to do a RI. That to me might be the catylist but it would be a white knight move from Shurther.

The other buy out scenario that I think more likely than yours, would be a breakthrough deal (say mobile phones) and Schurter may pay a big premium immediately but look very astute a year or 2 later. This is my personal most likely turn of events assuming CPX tech is as good as it promises to be. (and even that could turn out to be a bidding war)

In any event I think downside risk from here at.11p has been reduced by a large amount and if a share is not going down then it narrows the options for any other move other than up.

I expect a re-rate over the coming days and weeks now. (imo dyor etc)

"Can’t deny it certainly seems odd that Avacta have dropped all things STS recently."

I would only make the observation that when the above happens it has not resulted in anything positive.

Either there is something going on behind the scenes or its been dropped.

We have no way of knowing which so its at best 50/50 but history is not on the positive outcome, side

It read to me that financing is no longer an issue. CPX is tiny, a few million would only be raised through a RI. So I would think if money does start to get tight then either Schurter will fund any shortfall or they will take the opportunity to buy our CPX altogether.

To me this limits the downside as, although a RI could still happen I think those 2 alternatives would also be available and more beneficial to Schurter given their stake already, (and that assumes that a RI would be needed which may well be avoided in any event.)

(imo dyor etc)

"Windy, the desperation is real."

and there you go again, inventing and imagining how I feel and being completely wrong. But it suits you to believe that because if I am desperate then I must be saying desperate things and that might change your view on my posts.

There is such an obvious theme to your wishful thinking is that you just ignore what you want not to hear and then imagine as though its real, what you do.

What I actually think you are at very best is a naive investor who does not understand almost anything about investing and identifying value. I put this down to your lack of experience.

At worse you just think its funny to try to wind people up and behave like an idiot, either way I am pretty you are not very old.

Last go then,

clearly you are brilliant in your analysis using AI to uncover the misalignment of the value to the SP.

Given you have had hundreds of people read it and presumably spoken to others about the potential to maybe 100 bag their money, why do you think since then the SP has fallen?

(Since then too we have sold Launch and just had a presentation.)

Yet no one believes your analysis, and they will be smarter than me because as you always point out I have no argument or rebuttle to your incisive thinking.

Have you sent your thoughts to all the big players yet? Presumably they have missed all the presentations and RNs's.

Don't waste your time on me, argue the toss with investment houses. See what they say.

What you fail to grasp is that prior to the bids you referred to there were no bids, therefore the market could not value them on something that had not happened. You do understand that don't you? That's not a market fault of mispricing.

No one knew the bids were coming.

Your precedent argument is like saying that outsiders at 20-1 win horse races, and yes they do, but not all 20-1 rated horses win every race.

It is becoming increasingly clear that AVCT don't have a suitor in the wings based on how CC avoided the most obvious question today.

How and when the company will continue to fund itself are now the most pressing questions for INVESTORS to juggle with and to play around with various amounts and timelines to try and judge as best they can what the range of dilution might be and how it will affect their current holdings.

I have told you before a scenario could easily occur where the SP falls back to 30p by the time cash is an issue and then a cash raise is offered at 20p and BP generously offers 25p a share to save all the grief of dilution and time and risk for current shareholders to buy it out now. The fact that it will take another 5-7 years for all the really good stuff to come through won't be the long suffering AVCT shareholders worry any more.

Could that happen? Who knows, but how could the SP be in the low 30's only a few days ago and what would you have said if we had this conversation a year or 2 ago?

There are too many unknowns and unpredictable events for any sort of analysis to hold up. Thats the bit you fail to even consider.

You do realise you have completely changed your argument?

Yours was a valuation based on now. That it works and that BP will wake up and the valuation and SP will align. That was your whole point.

Now you say, it all depends on IF it works.

As the market is not convinced yet because of the multiple unknowns which I and others have constantly flagged, so the SP reflects the uncertainty.

So it turns out the market aint so thick after all.

And yes when NEW news comes out the market will adjust accordingly as it always does.

Oh right its just me that has just got IF it works its worth billions.... Jeeze you really are piece of work

""What I need is for you to engage with the actual valuation evidence (my case study) instead of rehashing the same AIM trader talking points for the 1000th time. Do better 🤷‍♂️. Or just shut up. 🤫"

except I do and you ignore it.

You make up questions and figures to get the answer you want.

Do you know how much time it took for the referendum people to get the right form of words, so as to not imply any bias for the brexit vote? (And that was a straight yes no answer)

Again another presentation and a resulting albeit small, lower SP. But yeah, no one has a clue except you.

If all it comes down to is, if it works its worth billions, well duh, yeah we all knew that.

This is where you drive me to drink: "Any partnership deal will snap the market back to attention, and until that red dot appears, nobody will see it coming."

Exactly. All the time there is not a deal then there is not enough money to sustain the company. Therefore money will have to be raised, When will that happen and how much will be required is unknown. Until then, it is a difficult company to put any sort of value on.

Lets assume the company with the tech proven is valued at at £5b and you are the only shareholder with 1 share. You are about to get £5b. How does that feel?

However due to the time taken to get it over the line there have been cash raises and dilution, but the company is still worth £5b, but now there are 5B shares with 5 billion new shareholders all with a £1 value per share.

Now do you get it?

The SP DOES matter and so does TIME.

"Once the data speaks for itself, the commercial side will follow."

Are you saying therefore, that you don't at this stage, think that the data does speaks for itself?

What difference will it make?

I'm watching the SP