Member Info for wyndrum

Always remember Player: reward does not come with "opportunity" written all over it, it comes with "Danger, Danger, do not touch!"

Its only in hindsight we see that it was in fact an opportunity.

I don't know what your risk /reward expectations are so its impossible to judge if you are being overly cautious or not.

The fact is no stock is "safe (remember the BP Horizon oil disaster? BP were hours from going bust apparently).

Personally this has the potential to go bust (I guess) and also maybe 10-100 fold increase. Depending on your throw away money, a £1k toe in the water might be ok for you? I don't know. its certainly not advice, But at some stage you have to pull the trigger. Good luck

No. They said they have 24 months money at present. But they are increasing sales dramatically with the January sales update as a potential marker what the tie up with Shurter will do. Since then they have done more distribution tie ups. I think unfeasible that there would be no further cash benefit over the next 9 months at all with these tie-ups on top of the Shurter development.

This is just my logic. I could be wrong. God knows small loss makers know how to spin us PI's along.

Its a risk, so if you think the rewards are worth the risk then buy, but only buy an amount you are comfortable that if you lost the lot it would make no difference to you.

(Imaging putting £10,000 on a 50-1 outsider? How would you feel if it lost? Now, how would you feel if you only put £10 on it?) Never, ever, ever over commit. That way it stays fun and you can sleep at night.

Companies give regular updates, normally twice yearly whereby the finances are highlighted.

Given loss making companies tend to re-finance 12-6 months before they think they need it you can work out for yourself what the ODDS are of further fund raising.

However, this is now generating sales income and a 24 months projection is typically at the top end of giving security to shareholders so I would guess there is at least, at least cash until the end of this year in which time I would hope for sales to improve to a level whereby it is now a cash positive company and further RI's are not necessary,.

But at the end of all that, then if you are not sure, or as sure as you can be, then don't buy. No ones holding a gun to your head and if you can't take that sort of decision due to worry, then you are potentially over committing anyway and stick to safer companies.

"LSE boards seem to attract the undesirable vermin."

Bit harsh Will. Its just a different view. 3 yrs ago the SP was 5p, now its a tiny fraction of that price and diluted to boot.

So as an investment over that time, its been pretty dire. (And I am sure 3 years ago there were plenty of posts saying it was going to go up and to diss anyone who disagreed?)

Anyway, the fact is nothing anyone says on these BB's makes an iota of difference to the SP. So it really doesn't matter.

If you think the stock will go up then just keep an eye on the price and miss out all these BB's completely, because as I say they make bugger all difference one way or the other. :0))

I am not sure what your point is Tim? is it that no one should buy american planes?

MW, you may have better info than me, as I had only read that a number of countries were "considering" moving away from the F35 orders as opposed to having already done so.

There may be capacity constraints for a sudden influx of lost contracts becoming live again. I am only offering an opinion, but I think RR could fairly obviously be a beneficiary of any realignment away from some US orders to a broad european bias.

I think it may need the MSM to break the news (ie "F35 contract cancelled") on their front page to give it a more general wake up to all investors that have yet to take on board the shift that is underway in defence stocks.

Also there has been talk (but I don't know of any action yet) of ethical funds re-writing their terms to allow investment in defence stocks. That would be a lot easier if there was as I say, a headline grabbing title moving away from US arms deals.

We just need 1 country to decide to cancel the US F35 plane for RR (and BA.) to be a major beneficiary of the alternative.

Portugal are considering it, Germany I think has its planes already powered by RR engines. UK has an order but obviously wants to play both sides right now. but should I think play Trump at his own game and just say we want to make the UK great again and produce jobs and growth in the UK.

Canada are probably our best bet.

Somebody break the dam!

So, let me get this straight, companies that due to the geo political uncertainty can't see earnings clearly over the next few months and therefore their SP's (Naturally) are under pressure, ... but AVCt (without any earnings, loss making, potential RI and months away from trial results with all the uncertainty that comes with it),....will be looked on very favourably by the same market?

Its just made up BS... which is fine but there does seem a quite a few here who swallow this in spite of his 100% track record of being wrong.

Just the latest recent examples:

this from the poster (Hurstbot) who said on the 12/03 when the SP was 41p: (9 recs)

" Price and size buyers" t-shirts being handed out before the presentation. One could be tempted to say "could be fire works later". Watch the price before close of business on Friday."

Followed up by 14/03 when the SP was 42p: (17 Recs)

"Remember NY is an hour ahead!

Offer price in size being lifted. Surely we are not surprised post Florida presentation and more conferences to come.

All the market have to do is focus on what AVA6103 trials will be telling us and the market will be getting ready for pre IPO noise .What will cone first a licence deal with a major pharma or IPO announcement or most likely both at the same time.

Watch the bid move up in size."

The SP closed today (after a weekend rampathon here) at 41p....

You explain it, because I can't....

Comes to a thing when a close at 1.07 looks significant.....

Still, tomorrow (its always tomorrow) might solidify and strengthen this most recent upward move

"2 most powerful emotions of fear and logic " Sorry.. Fear and GREED

I try and identify stocks that I think are likely to go up over the coming days/weeks/months and then having found one/some, then look at the chart to time entry (and exit). (I have no facility to short stocks)

I used to (Day) trade Bond futures back in the day simply because they were too big to be manipulated.

Stocks are generally susceptible to big players messing about so I don't day trade them (unless I get get very lucky and its an exceptional one day move on the day of purchase! :0)). As a result any false moves don't last that long and I am ok to wait for the shenanigans to work themselves out)

I find just looking at support and resistance levels as to where the SP is likely to go overlayed with the RSI and within that the RSI has to be (for me) over 80 to sell on an uptrend and under 20 to buy on a down trend.

It might sound too simple but has worked quite effectively for me since I decided to stock pick for a hobby.

But I am very aware that this can be a very divisive topic.

The logic given so many believe its complete and utter rubbish, is that its using crowd psychology (which is remarkably predictable) based on the 2 most powerful emotions of fear and logic to discern what is most likely to occur next.

It is just an odds game so nothing is written in stone, but then, what is?

I don't think so, other than buyers being wary to get in at a level that then promptly fell around 9%

(It gets back to support and resistance levels. All time highs are susceptible to more, or more frequent, retraces as there is no "next target" level to aim for. It has to play out a bit first....)

Looks like the US is waking up....

Yes Stamford, good post I think.

It has all the hallmarks of a shakedown.

Not at all, I explain my reasoning and assumptions. You don't have to agree with it but at least you know where I am coming from.

When the poster said in full:

"Back in the heady days when Avacta could do no wrong I remember we got some quite chunky payments - things were going gangbusters and I think we just took them for granted. There must be more in the pipeline and receiving them would draw attention to that arm of the business and give the share price a shot in the arm."

I questioned why use the word MUST.

I would argue the fact that there were (past tense) quite a few milestone payments and now there have been none for a long period suggest a more likely reason is the research that these companies were paying AVCT tech for, as come to nothing.

That does not mean I am right and I readily accept there could be a payment tomorrow, but simply based on what has happened in the past I don't think that is a contentious assumptive conclusion to make based on the info currently available

Or perhaps realistic?

For many posters here where its all about the science, you really have no care about the unfounded bias you use when discussing it.

" we got some quite chunky payments ..... There must be more in the pipeline..."

Why? I mean why now and not last month last year, whenever?

What if the research has proved to be a dead end for the companies using the tech?

I don't know, but then again, there are lots of things going on with AVCT that none of us know about.

I just don't understand why every bit of unknown info is assumed to be, behind the scenes, positive.

Pan, the chart showed that the stock was considerably over bought at its recent peak and therefore a retrace was always extremely likely.

Basically for those who use chart indicators (TA) perhaps alongside fundamental analysis, decided (correctly) it was a good place to top slice. and then get back in lower down and compound some of the growth already achieved.

Certainly it looks like the recent high will be a target this week to see if it is breached and the rise continues. (imo dyor etc)

So, what you are saying is a private Investor wil RTO an ND company on behalf of AVCT...

What percentage of the new company do you think this PI will take?

And where is this money for a RTO Bella?