Member Info for wyndrum

Looks like it opti, still thats what happens when you believe the CEO and the RNS's.

Still well done you for expecting the SP to fall as more and more detailed positive data was released.

(How did you do it? Is this the way small companies operate, lower and lower SP all the time better and better results are posted?)

" Now it’s just a case of sitting back, waiting, and watching the results roll in. Simple as that."

Given I have been watching for at least 3 years the results "roll in", why has the SP continued to fall?

Trouble is, personally speaking I have little involvement with th small cap nas stock.

Therefore it is instructive to hear DG's experience.

Again it just feels to me that AIM isn't the problem. It looks like we are shooting the messenger.

I can see (potentially) an ND listing going ahead but it will be primarily for funding not for shareholders gain per se. Which might I concede happily coincide.

imo, If AVCT crack it then wherever it is listed becomes irrelevant. ND only becomes an issue if they don't get a deal and are forced to go it alone, then a new market listing rears its head. But if that is the case then the terms might not be as good as we hope for.

(And here's a forecast for you... if AVCT do ND list I bet all the BoD will have new much higher pay deals commensurate with this US-Based company, for doing exactly the same job they are doing here.

Us PI's are not the movers or shakers in any of this. We have no voice or power, we just keep our fingers crossed we get swept up in any obvious success.

Lets hope

What happened to the TR1 buying and big move up monday etc etc?

(fwiw, 39p is now a resistance level that the SP is currently struggling to break through. I mention it only because Friday seemed to bring out a lot of posters who are thinking SP action is indicative of future moves.)

"It's a networking conference rather than a scientific conference so they'll be going over old data with a view to impress and network with the various business development professionals there."

Great... after 4 years they still need to convince somebody...anybody....that they are on to something.

Tends to lessen the credence that they are already in negotiations for a "deal" don't you think?

Or are you all going to spin it that this is just yet more good news while the SP still languishes?

"Avacta has been very confident about their finances since CC was brought in."

OMG...!!!!! like AS wasn't.... smirk, wink, wink?

Talk about postive bias... there are times when I really have to blink and read a post twice...

All any salesman ever has to do is tell the prosepective customer want they want to hear. And thats it. Thats a million books on how to sell wrapped up in a few words.

Hi Troaj,

yes It took me a little while to simplify it out for the small stocks but just using supprt and resistance with the RSI works pretty reliably (in fact) or more acurately, at least for me on the stocks I have played around with.

Avct have annoyingly shown that they have bottomed about a dozen times so far....(but if you go for a 10-15% margin then it is still relatively straight forward to nick profit here and there. Personally I find it gratyfying to constantly pick the markets pocket (as I can only go long) on a stock in a long term down trend.!)

But then again big stocks can surprise, RR obviously.

Still XSG, if they become a defacto part of washing machines could too be a huge winner.....

As I say its all great fun

But that stock.. if it does do it what it says on the tin, then you do have to wonder what the upside could be...

Ha! no, I come more from the "sticks and stones" generation. but that BB is a great variety of " investor types" (me incl. obviously!)

I still don't understand, after all this time that any of us think we know anything (or at least enough), to ever get it right other than luck, on small stocks that frequent AIM in particular.

Its great fun, but investing it aint!

Its funny isn't it, If I intepret the SP action and come to a conclusion there is amore likely chance of it going down than up I am a FUDster and negative and basically the devil incrante, but when you see big buys which might/should result in a higher SP then all of a sudden yoy all think it means something.

My observation would be there is an unhealthy amount of positive bias at play which ultimately and invariably always leads to poor decesion making.

Anyway, lets see what monday brings

Lets hope so

Ben, the trial is 4 years in... who said anything about overnight....

I simply don't understand that when there is doubt or ambiguity as you refer to in your belief "I think they are deliberately not telling us quite when it started as we can’t then question them with ‘are we nearly there yet?’ Or set short positions knowing it’ll take x amount of time." that you assume its positive?

There is simply never any need to be in any doubt when you have good news to relate. As soon as it can be read at least in 2 ways, assume its not that good. I guarantee, you won't go far wrong.

I just don't think you can have it both ways Chris.

This can't be potentially the greatest cancer busting development for decades and all the time the data continues to be released the SP falls. There are stocks that can counter a bear market and shouldn't this be one of them?

My take is over the piece, the data is not compelling enough yet to warrant BP's financial interest. The trial has taken longer than expected to reveal the data and that in turn casts doubt on to how the company will be funded going forward.

Todays RNS's were actually not good, but they did at least clear up some confusion. It was a low amount for Launch (Although I thought the value was likely to be between £10-£15m and not surprised if sub £10m) I got quite a lot of stick for that guess. And p1b dosing has in fact now started. again, I think there was an expectation it already had and also, again, it was important for the market to know when it started as it has a material impact on when the results will come through and we re now told late this year. Something again I highlighted to some posters fury.

Anyway, my guess is that without the unequivocal data the dilution/funding question remains open and therefore stops investors buying.

A positive resolution to either one should by my guesswork cause a re-evaluation to the SP.

What, you mean just because I am paranoid doesn't mean they are not out to get me...

Chris, when you say, "so yes it's an IF but most would agree the odds are well with us."

Based on what?

The SP (which is just a graphical representation of the demand to buy and sell the stock) has been in a 4 year down trend, which suggests the opposite to what you say or surmise.

Today with 2 "great" RNS's, the SP has effectively not moved. Why would that be?

I'm not "scared" of anything in this context.

Its you that has said that your analysis shows that BP WILL buy this for billions. (there has been no caveat on the quality of the data to date. In fact you keep going on about how it already works and the the company is already worth billions.)

My counter has been then why haven't they, and could that be the data is not compelling enough yet?

You then lecture me that BP are just biding their time for the right moment and the SP is irrelevant.

At no time have you agreed that its about "if" the current or forthcoming data is sufficient.

IF i guess right the 6 numbers in the lottery I will win a fortune. That is not the same thing as saying I have the right 6 numbers and the lottery people are already on their way the cheque.

It might seem a small point to you but the word IF is pretty important in this context, don't you think?

"If they deliver 70%-100% response rates across Phase 1, it’ll send shockwaves through the biotech world. "

Ah... at last the magic word.... IF

Well yeah, Duh....

So not a done deal after all... (and that's all anyone that you term as a "Fudster" has ever said, you do know that don't you?)

Sorry thats a question and you are not mad about those....

But here's another one, (sorry I can't help it....)

Do you think BP are aware of AVCT and what they have achieved so far?

"Launch is all but disposed of at the £13m cap which I really don't understand..."

My read would be they had more than one offer but they were all sufficiently low that they risked an auction to get the very best price they could.

The fact they can't off load Coris (which is loss making still?) suggests to me its likely sub £3m value?

(I don't see Coris if still on the AVCT books, deterring a multi-billion $ bid.....)

Well done Largo, let hope this time we really are at the all-time low

I am really glad to hear it D!

I know, whats its like, we all do, you think you have found a real gem amongst the dirt, so you think you MUST get in now before everyone else cottons on.

Thats why a plan has to be in place. Entry and exit define the profit or loss you ultimately end up with.

When buying you have to examine the reasons why now, right now, you are pushing the button. Why won't it go lower? What evidence do you have? Are the odds clearly in your favour that this is the low point? What new info has suddenly arrived to change your previous view in not buying?

And of course once committed you must not care about the result. Once you are emotionally attached to your trade it becomes very hard to act rationally.

Your experience in FP suggests that you are very dispassionate about it. Its SP is simply a number on a screen and depending on what it is you either buy or sell. What it actually does for a living is immaterial. The more, I think, that mindset can prevail so the odds increase in our favour of getting more right than wrong.

Anyway the very best to you as always, and I do hope one day we meet up