Member Info for wyndrum

DB, do you think anything (postive or not) posted on this BB, affects the SP?

I am not sure on that.

"Cooley must have been talking to institutions by now - assuming this SMT is going on behind the scenes you'd imagine the institutions would start buying in ahead of the curve,...."

Yes I see the possibility of talking to bigger investors but he can't tell them anything not public otherwise they all go to jail, (well, that would be the day, but insider trading is illegal and the fines and reputational damage would be high).

Plus big players don't work off rumour and nudge nudge, they need to see the facts and figures. not the "we are almost there, any day now"... etc etc

We are gamblers, the professionals are quite happy to miss out on the fist big rise and then get in when the risk has gone. Thats how they are all very rich and we waste our time on these BB's guessing away to our hearts content. (Too greedy by half)

Bluebay,

I am not sure I am assuming anything other than I think, that the TG govt might be pushing a very hard deal in exchange for the offer of a ML.

The SP has fallen 25% in the last 12 months. Given the string of positive updates that seems counter intuitive to me so I try to see what conditions might cause the opposite of what one might expect.

I like the diversification too but at a current Market cap of £60m it suggests its all about Rukwa and if it was just our other stake there would have to be a serious re-rating on the stock. (Which is why imo the good results in the US are having no impact on the SP.)

Time will tell, as it always does.

Its just my musings.

"A JV with TZ would be fantastic IMHO as it would work very much in favour of HE1, TZ and shareholders."

Well, that's a bit of assumption there Crypt. We don't know yet the terms of the deal (if indeed there is one.)

To me it makes sense that the extra time taken to offer the ML was because the TG wants to have a bigger stake than the 16% they get automatically. The fact it was offered rather than granted also suggests to me, that there is bit more going on here.

The fact that HE1 surprised us all buying into a (relatively) small US company, when money is/was so tight, may be an ultimate fall back for HE1 should for any reason Rukwa not work.

The fact that we have had hot stacked a drill for over 6 months never used and never hired out, strikes me that plans have changed. Why I don't know. Why has the SP been so flat? I don't know. We all expected the financial viability report to be released months ago, yet now we can't release it. So we and the rest of the world is now guessing? Why would we do that? when/f it was released, we might get other companies wanting to JV with HE1?

Its the unknowns that make a market of course, but there have been, for me, a lack of info that I thought we would, based on what LB has said in the past, be privy to by now.

As it is am very relaxed about my current holding but the lack of clarity is disappointing

Perhaps punter, you could realise that the TG govt takes 16% but what about the split if the TZ is the JV partner?

They have "offered" a ML which took 6 months to come through which was a darn sight longer than LB told us to expect. Why was that do you think? There is now a period whereby the terms have to be very carefully looked at so that presumably HE1 don't sign something that has financial long term harmful impact?

Maybe thats why after all this time and one "good piece of news" after the other, the SP has not moved?

I don't know whats going on and neither do you but the TG is sitting on a huge amount of potential income. You think they are not going to try and get the best deal they can for themselves?

We just to have wait until we see the results of all this. We don't know even know the commercial viability of the discovery yet do we. Whys that?

I am not deramping, I am simply stating there are a number of unknowns out there that could derail the scale of the financial returns.

Good chat, thanks

Sorry Van, yes Chairman, (you say potatoe... ha ha)

Perhaps punter, you could realise that the TG govt takes 16% but what about the split if the TZ is the JV partner?

They have "offered" a ML which took 6 months to come through which was a darn sight longer than LB told us to expect. Why was that do you think? There is now a period whereby the terms have to be very carefully looked at so that presumably HE1 don't sign something that has financial long term harmful impact?

Maybe thats why after all this time and one "good piece of news" after the other, the SP has not moved?

I don't know whats going on and neither do you but the TG is sitting on a huge amount of potential income. You think they are not going to try and get the best deal they can for themselves?

We just to have wait until we see the results of all this. We don't know even know the commercial viability of the discovery yet do we. Whys that?

I am not deramping, I am simply stating there are a number of unknowns out there that could derail the scale of the financial returns.

I think that id a raise was coming then they would at the same time then confirm the change of CEO. The fact it has come on the back of the latest distribution coup suggests to me that we might be over thinking this.

The pieces are being put in place but it looks like there is a reason of big(ger) sales soon to arrive, rather than a more hopeful "now the bits are in place, fingers crossed we get the sales"

imo dyor etc

Hmmm... that maybe so Daffy, but it all depends now on what the TG cut is going to be.

It looks to me as though they will be the "partner" and can pretty much call the tune as to who gets what....

Thats how it works Charlie.

The whole point of a share buy back (which personally I am not a fan of), is the company buys the shares back and then cancels them.

A company has 1m shares issued worth 100p each valuing the company at £1m. The company has a share buy back of 100k of shares. There are now only 900k worth of shares available but the company is still worth £1m meaning the remaining shares are now re-valued at £1.11 each (or an 11% gain. for remaining shareholders)

However in reality I have never been on the receiving end of that type of re-evaluation (it never seems quite to work out...). I would prefer, in my example, a special 10% dividend, that way you the shareholder get it in one hit. Clean and transparent.

(I do too Van, but I try to err on the side of caution when extrapolating numbers thru.)

Sorry, I should have said £10m of profits not sales

Hi Van,

Given the current market cap of £8m, a 10 fold increase equates to £80m. Now, if they have around £8m annual sales than on a PE of 10 which is low for a growth company in the high tech sector then its not a linear relationship but, its not a stretch to see that sort of valuation. (well, for me anyway.)

Beyond that then it comes down to some sort of block buster deal such as in mobile phones for instance, I would not remotely "expect" that but nevertheless there are some potentially big mass market opportunities that CPX could be involved in, which would then change everything.

So to me the downside is pretty small given the last 6 months of company developments with a very good expected upside with a much less likely, but-you-never-know, potential "OMG" upside. :0))

(imo dyor etc)

Always remember Player: reward does not come with "opportunity" written all over it, it comes with "Danger, Danger, do not touch!"

Its only in hindsight we see that it was in fact an opportunity.

I don't know what your risk /reward expectations are so its impossible to judge if you are being overly cautious or not.

The fact is no stock is "safe (remember the BP Horizon oil disaster? BP were hours from going bust apparently).

Personally this has the potential to go bust (I guess) and also maybe 10-100 fold increase. Depending on your throw away money, a £1k toe in the water might be ok for you? I don't know. its certainly not advice, But at some stage you have to pull the trigger. Good luck

No. They said they have 24 months money at present. But they are increasing sales dramatically with the January sales update as a potential marker what the tie up with Shurter will do. Since then they have done more distribution tie ups. I think unfeasible that there would be no further cash benefit over the next 9 months at all with these tie-ups on top of the Shurter development.

This is just my logic. I could be wrong. God knows small loss makers know how to spin us PI's along.

Its a risk, so if you think the rewards are worth the risk then buy, but only buy an amount you are comfortable that if you lost the lot it would make no difference to you.

(Imaging putting £10,000 on a 50-1 outsider? How would you feel if it lost? Now, how would you feel if you only put £10 on it?) Never, ever, ever over commit. That way it stays fun and you can sleep at night.

Companies give regular updates, normally twice yearly whereby the finances are highlighted.

Given loss making companies tend to re-finance 12-6 months before they think they need it you can work out for yourself what the ODDS are of further fund raising.

However, this is now generating sales income and a 24 months projection is typically at the top end of giving security to shareholders so I would guess there is at least, at least cash until the end of this year in which time I would hope for sales to improve to a level whereby it is now a cash positive company and further RI's are not necessary,.

But at the end of all that, then if you are not sure, or as sure as you can be, then don't buy. No ones holding a gun to your head and if you can't take that sort of decision due to worry, then you are potentially over committing anyway and stick to safer companies.

"LSE boards seem to attract the undesirable vermin."

Bit harsh Will. Its just a different view. 3 yrs ago the SP was 5p, now its a tiny fraction of that price and diluted to boot.

So as an investment over that time, its been pretty dire. (And I am sure 3 years ago there were plenty of posts saying it was going to go up and to diss anyone who disagreed?)

Anyway, the fact is nothing anyone says on these BB's makes an iota of difference to the SP. So it really doesn't matter.

If you think the stock will go up then just keep an eye on the price and miss out all these BB's completely, because as I say they make bugger all difference one way or the other. :0))

I am not sure what your point is Tim? is it that no one should buy american planes?

MW, you may have better info than me, as I had only read that a number of countries were "considering" moving away from the F35 orders as opposed to having already done so.

There may be capacity constraints for a sudden influx of lost contracts becoming live again. I am only offering an opinion, but I think RR could fairly obviously be a beneficiary of any realignment away from some US orders to a broad european bias.

I think it may need the MSM to break the news (ie "F35 contract cancelled") on their front page to give it a more general wake up to all investors that have yet to take on board the shift that is underway in defence stocks.

Also there has been talk (but I don't know of any action yet) of ethical funds re-writing their terms to allow investment in defence stocks. That would be a lot easier if there was as I say, a headline grabbing title moving away from US arms deals.

We just need 1 country to decide to cancel the US F35 plane for RR (and BA.) to be a major beneficiary of the alternative.

Portugal are considering it, Germany I think has its planes already powered by RR engines. UK has an order but obviously wants to play both sides right now. but should I think play Trump at his own game and just say we want to make the UK great again and produce jobs and growth in the UK.

Canada are probably our best bet.

Somebody break the dam!