Member Info for wyndrum

"That’s complete misinformation. The Phase 1b results were never expected in the first half of 2025, anyone claiming otherwise clearly hasn’t read the corporate milestone slide properly."

I apologise, I thought I had previously read that there would be initial P1b data release in the 2h 2025 I was wrong.

Doesn't sound either, as though the next few months will be data rich?

Presumably the quarterly up-date will be it?

This may still all come good but surely even the most ardent fanatic must realises its not really looking like a holy grail of cancer treatment for at best, years away.

But maybe it explains why BP is not getting involved at this stage. There really is plenty after all. Maybe it is not quite so dumb of BP going over the tried and tested tharapies presently.

Still what do they know, what does Aim know, what do the shorts know, all of them to a person as thick as mince.

" It's a boring long term investment as it should be."

Not the £200 ex china this year then then, used to be posted 5 years ago?

You do realise this was a profit warning don't you?

Still recruiting patients for p1b let alone dosing.

Now some time 2025, not first half, for p1b results.

so another delay

Opti, I find this argument really contradictory.

The comapny has a market cap of £150-160m but investors and BP are not in a hurry because in a few months the company will be worth billions haveing watched exceptional results is the trial so far.

If we , the market, other Pi's and II's can see that in 3-6 months AVCT will (not perhaps/maybe/possibly) but will simply confirm what we all know to be a fact then why is every single person or institution soooo relaxed about not being in.

Its not rational. is it. I mean it simply isn't.

If the data to date is clearly not exceptional, then that rationally explains the lack of or rumour of deals and the long term low/falling SP all through the years of trial.

Why this view is so ridiculled here is beyond me.

Everything you say Ice can be seen from my view just as reasonably.

Untill there is a deal,there isn't one, Its an assumption that you believe one will come along even though as you admit we both don't know whats going on behind the scenes.

The FACTS are one hasn't. The FACT is this has proved safety and to a degree, efficacy, already stretching over YEARS. And yet the FACT that no deal has yet been signed off remains.

You beieve its inevitable, I think if it was inevitable based on EXCEPTIONAL exceeded expectations then I wonder why it hasn't happened yet.

I wonder too if it was just a matter of time and a deal is close by why the SP is rooted close to all time lows.

I base my views on facts you, base them on silence meaning activity. You base a low and falling SP has only iindicative of a market being really as thick as mince even though they have the same info as you and AI too.

Each to his own

"The science so far is exceptional you can’t lie about that"

Is it? Its one thing to be promising or even very promising, but exceptional is in another league, and yet BP and the wider market seem disinterested.

It would be a reasonable argument if this was on the 2nd dose opf P1a but 3 years in, and maybe it was earlt days.

That argument does not hold now. Still (as can be seen by the posts here), that every RNS raises various questions or different views as to what it might mean. This ambiguity perhaps shows that your assumption may not be correct.

Who said it was exceptional anyway? was it AS, who you keep telling me hthat his pronouncements doesn't count anymore?

Bella, 4/5 years ago avct was 270p, (39p) AGL 140p, (10p), SNG 250p (.08p) , ABDX 110p (7p) ODX bust, Intugumen Bust.

There are others but these are the ones I remember. So how are you to know which ones will make it and which wont?

ICe, when you were then invested around the LFT, did you (reasonably I think) believe what AVCt told you about all the tie ups, the various research with Tropical medicines/Porton Down labs etc. etc, the appointments, the best test in the world statement and all the rest of the remarkable S&S profile? On here there was no end of talk about buy outs and domination in this field. There was no end of posters researching LFT's and proclaiming that tomorrow it would be £200 ex China. This went on for what, 18 months but was meant to be 6? And at the end of it failed commercially.

I raise this because you are basing everything here on the science and not the SP/business finance aspects of AVCT.

But you can only judge the science based on what AVCT tell you and release into the public domain.

All i am saying is that we were all duped, not by being stupid or under researched, but by ultimately not having the full picture given to us.

As it was the SP hinted that all was not well when it started to fall.

So experience should have taught us all, to be wary of the "science" as we have been down this road before, and to at least look at the long term SP as at least an indicator that perhaps, just perhaps all is not quite what it seems? (And there have been unexpected time extensions that you (as well as the rest of us did not see coming).

I know this won't change your mind but whereas you are happy to ignore anything that might cause pause for thought or seems like a red flag, others here are not quite so sure.

It does not imo make us all clowns or living in the 1970's to see history repeating itself. Whether it will change the ending this time round, remains to be seen.

Ice will you truthfully answer this:

were you invested in AVCT from the early days of the LFT program

This will do no good because you are in fact, an idiot however: "how can a 300% jump in the share price on a deal mean the market had Avacta priced correctly before?"

because before there had been no deal. (I mean, this is so basic as to be... I haven't the words..

Its like buying a lottery ticket confident you will win and saying you should have the winnings before the result is released. Of course once you have won you will get the prize. How can you get it earlier without the proof?

"In your world, the potential for a deal should already be priced in, because, hey, biotech companies do deals, right? So it shouldn’t be a surprise. But a 300% move isn’t “orderly” it’s a market getting caught completely off guard."

What would be priced in is on a trial going to plan that will revolutionise cancer treatment with an increased likely hood of a buy out. The fact that the opposite is taking place over such a long period of time negates the market materially mispricing this stock.

As I have said before all you go on about is that if it works it will be worth billions and apparently spent 5000 words "proving" that. As I said previously, well, yeah, Duh....We all know that. Thats why we are here.

Weather it will or not is how we pass the time til we find out

SB, I comment on peoples views based on their logic at arriving to their conclusions when it is assumptive beyond (my) reason. Confirmational bias is a real thing and is displayed here continually. This does not make them idiots, as we all have a different view of what an idiot is.

As for balance... I am not sure what you mean. I buy stocks at what I think within reason is at their lowest point expecting them to appreciate. When they don't, I look again at my assumptions.

AVCT have potentially a multi bag opportunity for investors. They had that at 180p as the trial looked to be concluding18 odd months ago. They still do now at 38p. If I had bought at 180p I personally would not sit on my hands and watch my capital be destroyed. Has anything changed? well, the data looks stronger than ever but the SP has collapsed. So which is the right course? Just holding and ignoring the SP or preserving capital and keep an eye on the stock as per Thorn's strategy and potentially buy back in much lower down.

As I try remind people, its not about the science, its about the money because this is an investment and that's how we judge success or failure.

What would you rather, have a Buy out at 120p being vindicated that it "works" but losing 30% of your 180p purchase. Or say selling at 160p when you realised it was not going to plan and buying back in a 120p with no risk with a bigger holding than you had at 180p?

Anyway, thats what goes through my head. Quite why its such a terrible place to be only you can opine on, me personally I am fine with it.

I think thats a very good point VR

Opti: "You have to be close to the detail here to understand it and the market isn't paying attention to the detail, that is why there is still a short on this. "

How do you know this? What if they are paying attention to the detail but have come to a different conclusion?

Ice, particularly but I think it may be a generally shared view here, that the SP will go up when BP put in an offer and therefore its just matter of time.

My counter view is that BP already know all about this trial and AVCT. Its not a secret. So why are they not buying it out now if its all done and dusted? Therefore it follows its not all done and dusted . We know through past experience that BP have bought out company trials at an early stage for them still to fail. BP are prepared to take a certain amount of risk. But not with AVCT yet it would seem. And that can't be easily dismissed as what AVCT are trying to do is the holy grail of cancer treatment. For the falling SP to be laid at the door of a poorly educated market is I suppose a possibility, but really, is it the most likely explanation?

"Are you suggesting they're lying?" How would I know? I do know that AVCT said there were no antibodies in the LFT test but it turned out there were. I do know SNG did a trial but omitted to say patients in the trial were receiving other medication which when revealed, invalidated years of results. So, it does happen.

Look at this: "We have been developing an engine that goes from 0-100mph in 5 seconds. We are pleased to report we have exceeded expectations and got there in 4.6 seconds. We are in talks with partners to commercialise this breakthrough" However problem is, on deceleration the engine blows up. No one lied, nothing but the truth reported, The "partners" said when you crack that deceleration problem come back to us. But it was not the full picture.

All loss-making companies are desperately and always making sure to where the next bit of funding is going to come from. They have to paint the very best picture to keep investors on board, which normally means being partial with the info available and potentially stretching the truth right up to the legal boundaries. Gloss over or ignore completely setbacks, over-promote the encouraging bits.

Time will tell with AVCt but to date they have performed like the majority of other small bio-techs with good/great ideas. As a result until there is conclusive data the market will sit on their hands and wait. Us here, are less patient.

"The data and the science are facts. We already know partnership discussions are happening behind the scenes. When a deal lands and the share price rockets 300–400%, are you going to come back and apologise to the board?"

If and when a deal lands that will be new news and the SP will react accordingly. Until then it just hot air. The market is behaving perfectly rationally.

The data and science is only what AVCT tell us. We do not have access to all of it. AVCT have a history of being partial with their data. The market therefore is wary. This is logical and understandable.

The market is not impressed with the business acumen of AVCT which again keeps away serious investment until it is substantially de-risked.

I have no idea what partnerships have been discussed and with what companies, and what deal(s) have been offered. Do you?

That ambiguous, no detail, statement is standard CEO talk when there is nothing to report.

Your paper was based on partial information. You do not have anywhere near all the facts at your disposal but you pretend as though the input and output is beyond reproach.

You seem to think the market cannot price AVCT properly. However they have the same info as you, so why would they come to a different conclusion presently? When new information arrives the market will react to that. Will that reaction also be wrong? The market is less emotional and much more rational than you are. They understand risk much better than you clearly do.

A deal might be "We have been Offered £250m which will allow us to continue our research and further trials. Without this money we cannot proceed with all the inherent instability of constantly going back to the market for piecemeal funding. We believe this is the best deal for current shareholders to avoid constant delay and dilution"

That is a possible outcome. But presumably you never asked your AI friend if that could happen?

You have to look constantly at the downsides to make sure you do not get carried away with the upside. New information should be treated with an open mind. That's what the market does. So far I would suggest given everything , they have done a pretty good job with AVCT.

No I am not paid to post and never have been. (In fact the reason I post as much as I do is because of posts like this, where it is aimed directly at me, so I almost always reply. Check back over the last couple of days and see how often 1 post of mine is questioned, yeboa and Derby as the latest example.)

I don't know why you assume I don't hold shares in AVCT when I have posted for years consistently that I do. Again, I have a core holding and fyi (but really who cares), I have reduced it twice over the last 12 months. Separately I buy and sell when I think there is an opportunity to profit.

I don't know who would be more stupid, you thinking I can alter the SP with my posts or me thinking it? I can help you with the fact that I believe nothing here posted by anyone alters the SP. So for crystal clear clarity I do not post in an attempt to move the SP.

And yes actually it is in your words " plain altruism" . I post my thoughts and ideas to hopefully show how particularly we are emotionally driven in our decision making. We think or like to think its all careful research and rational thought and yet very little of it is.

This stock particularly is a high risk one which means this glib title is telling us that the chances of success are slim and there is a good to high chance we will lose our money. Every bit of AVCT's history confirms that.

Every bit of AVCT's history confirms we do not have a clear or transparent picture of what is ACTUALLY going on.

So why would you buy this stock? Because of the potential reward. Its greed plain and simple, and thats not rational.

Every experienced investor form PI to II will tell you not to invest more than you can afford to lose. I tweak that to say COMFORTABLY afford to lose because that is a big difference. You put £10 on a100-1 horse to win and it doesn't, who cares. You put £10k on it and yes, you can "afford" it but boy would it hurt!

But you all know this, no one here is remotely inconvenienced by the capital loss they are sitting on. Most here still although all the evidence is to the contrary, believe everything AVCT say.

The excuses often rolled out here, to me are illuminating, so i comment on them. Lots of people ignore me and good for them, its a free country.

For a start derby, I have never said I was a no 1 trader. Just that I win more than I lose.

You simply are pretty bitter with your own shareholding and delight in laughing at others financial misfortune.

If that makes you happy or content its a pretty sad shape of things.

If it all it takes for you to be happy is to persistently go on about a trade 2 years ago by a stranger who you perceive to have had some financial misfortune than you crack on.

Well DT, As I work from a desk it s a bit tricky to just up stumps and walk about in the sunshine.

I am glad that you are in a position to come and go as you please.

But for the love of god, please stop worrying about my life, or deciding what would be the best way of living it. I am doing fine and have done fine, ok?

Jeeze, I do sometimes wonder who you all think you are....

Well a few weeks ago you could have bought around 33p and sold out at 41p ish a couple weeks later and made 25%?

I realise 25% return in 2 weeks is small beer to you lot and presumably not worth getting out of bed for, but I'd take it.

Ginge, its the sellers that dictate the price, not the buyers