Member Info for wyndrum

Must be something afoot, its gone up 1p

Blimey Skilly, 25% increase! How many shares are the F&F expecting to buy!!! :0))

Sorry, "....790 is the first SUPPORT".

Crude,

It depends on your time frame as to where support and resistance levels lie.

If you are taking a longer term view than the daily chart would be where you look and 790 is the first resistance.

Because of that you wait to see where it closes tonight. If that went maybe 781p would be next.

Its had a good run very recently so there is always going to be a period of consolidation where profits are taken and new buyers have to be found.

Personally I added a few more this morning and got in a couple of p below 790p, but I am looking reasonably long term and just thought this was a half decent place to add at.

My thinking is an "unexpected" order or two might/will materialise from this turbulence which might be the impetus for another lurch up, but its all guess work.

OPti, " I mean, it either works or it doesn't. It either renders the chemo inert until it reaches the tumour or it doesn't. I don't understand the ultra cautious timeline when peoples lives could be being saved. Is it possible to get the pre|CISION PDC approved as a 'transporter' of a drug or does each individual drug need to go through these sorts of timelines each and every time another cancer killing drug is attached to it? Seems unnecessary to me."

I could not agree more. Its what many if not all say here and have said for years. Its not a new drug, its just a vehicle to get to the tumour. Many here have said it speeds the whole "trial" process up.

So 2 things for me come from your observation. Either the "well-researched" here don't actually understand trials at all, and are perhaps not as well-researched as they keep telling me.

Or, its not "worked" as uniformally well as expected and therefore more time and tweaking has been necessary to figure our dosings and cancer targets and the other myriad of complex issues that not only do none of us remotely understand, but don't have all the data from AVCT to make a rounded opinion on in the first place.

LDA, thats exactly what I am talking about.

I am seeking buyers for my house, it does not mean I have found any. But I am not lying, but look at your interpretation, not only are they looking which is to you positive, but they would not even bother unless the data was so good.

You might be right , or they might be trying to infer something thats not in the spirit of what they say.

(I am inking deals, finance is not a problem etc etc. I am sure both statements were true when AS said them, but the inked deal was probably for so few as to be meaningless and indeed he financed a RI at 50p. but in both remarks we took it as apositive when it wasn't).

Who knows? its your money (and mine) so we do what we like with it. There is no right or wrong to any of it, its just a crap shoot, always is, always will be when you try to forecast the future and the longer down the track you look the less chance you have of being right.

We really are all gamblers here.

Chris,

Please realise I start from the premise of not knowing anything. I make assumptions based on my experience.

My experience in all aim stocks is that CEO's are not fulsome in their communications and it is often what they don't say as to be the most revealing. (I am dancing on the head of a pin not to say they deliberately mislead).

Through the whole LFT saga it gave a clear MO of how AVCT communicated and that was replicated in the AVA6k trial. Therefore it was not only not a surprise when they missed self-imposed deadlines but I expected it. (and so it proved to be.)

From there it is easy to see if it runs over time that could cause funding problems. To me this was as clear as the nose on your face. The fact that so many here could not see it and still don't, does not affect my thinking.

CC has come in, ok: Is their a change in comms? Why did AS leave?

P1b may well finish as scheduled but there is no historical precedent that says it will be, so I will assume it will run late.

And not for nothing, when did YOU expect P1b dosing to start? I would bet it was not as late as March 2025.

(I don't know, but I was surprised that it took 6-9 months to find patients to enter P1b trial so as to start dosing given the extra safety profile of the P1a stage.)

My thinking is, there was and still remains some ambiguity in the P1a results which is why they changed the cancers they wanted to test P1b on. In turn this changed or maybe accelerated the new pipeline. (The fact that it will be a year after P1a finished before we get an update to me is another red flag. I think they hope early P1b data will be so much better in efficacy that it will make P1a results moot. But its just another guess).

I have to say none of this "bothers" me. AVCT it seems to me, are learning as they go. Its just that I don't like having to try to piece it all together through my own guesswork that may sometimes be correct but sometimes not, because AVCT are so continually opaque and ambiguous with their partial updates.

And always realise, that is deliberate. So then it follows... why be like that if you don't have to? Why not shout from the rooftops to every scientific and MSM outlet whats happening, get it peer reviewed, crack on., if its exceeding expectations?

To me it would suggest there is a "problem/hiccup, call it what you like, because all these delays cause the SP to fall with placings and dilution and undermines market confidence and that is not a position any PLC wants to be in, for any reason if it can be avoided.

Anyway, Like I said up top,what do I know, only to say my guesswork so far has been better than most here.

Jes, MTD was never expected as AS said at the time, and the extra 3 cohorts still did not get to MTD. so what was that all about?

I know I am cynical, but AS 's "surprise" at the demand for extra dosing was I think more likely caused by ambiguous results along the way.

Now thats just me guessing. So I realise I could be quite wrong, but again, why would a SP keep falling when you are getting continued confirmation of the greatest breakthrough in cancer treatment for decades?

We are constantly misled by this company. Whether that is because you need to because if you were upfront then raising money would be nigh on impossible, or its not going as expected from the lab.

The problem with delays are not so much based around the time itself but more about the funding. How much more dilution will be necessary to pay for these extra time extensions?

You have to divorce the science from the business as they are not the same thing.

Also time eats into patents and also the chance of being overtaken by alternative therapies.

I am not as relaxed as you are about time extensions for those reasons.

Wow, you all seem to take a very long view now as though you knew all along.

Wish someone had posted 4 years ago that P1a would have just finished.

(And it is odd because every time I flagged the likely hood of a missed deadline I was constantly howled down.)

JFK, because I thought there would be near term stock appreciation with the LFT which to be fair, after a few months, when I realised the stock was tradeable and I did not have to "fear" of being out while the bombshell RNS dropped, turned out to be very lucrative for me.

I was (as I am sure along with everyone else), disappointed that it turned out to be nothing. But by then the trial was just about underway and it had a 2 year time line with a general expectancy of a buyout within 12 months when it would be obvious it worked.

So I hung on (and on and on) and still managed to trade it overall, profitably, but being on a such a long term down trend that has become increasingly difficult.

Now P1b is here and we are, guess what....just a few months from realising how patience will be rewarded.

So I still have a core holding (which I have reduced a couple of times now over the last 12 months) and am pretty much on the same page as Thorn. When it really is proved to work I can top up then with little of no risk. And if it goes ballistic then the core holding will profit from it.

(But even if went up 3 fold its only just going to be over 100p so its hardly the worse place to get in.)

But the longer this takes the more it looks like the ABDX, AGL, SNG, ODX INTEGUMEN, and every other failed or disappointing small biotech type company. Constantly asking for more money while promising potential deals etc etc etc. Its the nature of Aim and thats ok.

I have a reasonably broad portfolio outside the Aim gambles, which I adjusted and went overweight into defence stocks which again, has proved very profitable. I never over commit to any stock and weight my holdings to my perceived risk of them succeeding or failing.

I Hope you are right chris.

The point is we are expecting a data rich period, but be fair, how often have AVCT said that and it not materialise?

How often have dosing timelines been missed (i would say 100%)?

What we do know as a historical fact that the CLN loan date causes a fall in the SP which over time has forced the SP lower and lower.

Therefore if there is to be a RI in the next few months then where will the SP be?

You say hindsight will prove this is the right place to buy. (How often has that been said in the past?) Maybe, but maybe not.

How often has Sujood been right or Hurst or RAH, or ophidian, or MM, or TTB? (or any poster that kept banging on that this was about to explode)

These posters have garnered a huge amount of recs over the years and anybody swayed by their arguments will be sitting on large capital losses.

I get the optimism, and thats fine, but history has to date showed that to be completely misplaced with this stock.

For instance I don't know what AVA6k is about now. Originally I thought that was the be all and end all, and now its been supplanted by the new best thing which guess what, is years away. It looks like it was just a vehicle to prove it "worked" so that a whloe new trial could be undertaken.

This has been I think fair to say, a mirage of a stock. Its always so close, just another few months. We approach mid 2025, with no deal, no license, no milestone payment for years, no commercial product. We have sold the pet division and the DX division. Why? Because they commercially failed. Those facts could not be hidden, even though those markets are huge and lucrative.

So AVCT hang their hat on a future that never seems to arrive for shareholders.

So it might be "negative" but it is also true.

This stock has literally promised investors huge returns through its history and has only ever failed.

You think that will end and while I genuinely hope you are correct, I am less optimistic.

Desperate about what?

Nothings changed, the SP is still in the 30's for all the sale of LD, the posters, the new dosing regime.

All that has happened is that another couple of months has ticked by.

I fear you transfer your emotional state over to me.

I could care less about AVCT as an investment. It will either pay off or it won't.

Sorry, " If it does NOT result..."

Chris, this is where it gets tricky i think for the investor.

Lets assume there is a data rich period that supports the SP. If it does result in a deal of some sort then a RI will still occur but hopefully the SP will be higher causing less dilution.

I am sure yet what AVCT's plans are: Do thery want to go it alone or will they take a deal. I think there has been conflicting signals from avct about this.

Will they got to ND? They say they want to but what does that mean, and even if they are genuinely working to that outcome, by when?

Posters can carp on about my questions but the whole point of them is to highlight the uncertainty that big investors face when thinking of putting their money in AVCT. The questions I raise are only what every investor would want answers to.

And if it is possible, pretend you knew nothing about AVCT until today and you started doing your research, what questions would you be asking?

Watching, what has the SP done for years?

Why are you so determined to ignore the reality of this company?

Its a loss making small bio tech company that has disappointed the market in terms of time lines and commercial products since its inception. Its par for the course for this type of company on Aim, and until something changes the serious investors will look elsewhere.

I don't know why thats even contentious.

The SP is 39p Every cash raise to date is at a lower level than the last one and a new lower trading rage ensues.

You might have forgotten but the idea here is to buy a stock that goes up.

Time and money is running out. P1b data is now critical. it had better not be delayed.

Yeboa, I said "If" because its projected. Its not a fact. Things happen to business. I imagine the energy costs and wage increase and business rates were not expected at the rate they have arrived so that may put extra pressure on finances. Who knows what else might arise in the next 6 months.

Its that reality that makes it obviously prudent to raise money sooner rather than later.

Yeboa,

Are byou really as financially illiterate as your post suggests?

Cash into Q1 so what end of jan, end of Feb? 10-11 months away.

When do you think they will want to raise more cash?

Look at previous cash runways and then look at when the RI's were announced.

Its not a trick question.

Watching, if there is no deal or material outside income, within 6 months there will have to be a RI.

Do you disagree?

If there is enough projected cash to Q1 26 then there is already less than 12 months.

A cash raise could happen any time now and the next 6 months.

You are not going to let the cash run out before you raise more.

Its all about the money. Always has been

Careful D, Ice said he thought the money from the DX sale would clear the CLN loan. (But he won't discuss how his analysis was so wide of the mark)

Again, he bases his argument around all or nothing.

You don't have to sell every AVCT share. Taking or adding money to the table is a prudent exercise in either limiting losses or maximising gains.