Member Info for wyndrum

All of your relies are complete guesswork. There is not shred of evidence to your "logic" that what has happened to other companies WILL apply to avct.

So, according to you, no efficacy proven on P1a then? fingers crossed P1b is better. What if it isn't !!!! shock horror....

(should be ok though but.... its almost like there is a reason why BP are sitting on their hands......)

"It’s inconceivable BP are not interested right now, as Windy would have everyone believe. This is not fantasy land, it’s backed up by logic and evidence."

In which case as its all done and wrapped up, where is the bid?

If P1a is so definitive, What are they waiting for? Surely not more evidence. Blimey they are as thick as me!

But looking at the pipe line drugs: same applies:

If its all so logical and evidentially proven to work, where is the bid?

Or are you going to say that they have not even started a trial yet and therefore its too early in which case the "evidence" is still to be proven.

I am happy to realise you could be correct but not through logic and evidence but simply through guessing and layering assumption upon assumption. And your track record of forecasting anything here has been inaccurate. One day you might get lucky, but thats what it will be, so please don't think you research is unearthing anything that the whole market is not already very familiar with.

I am not sure how these comments take us forward.

If the P1b is good/great the shares rocket. well yeah... Duh

I have bought a lottery ticket and if the numbers come up I will be a millionaire....so?

The more pressing imo debate is this:

The expectation is P1b will be great based on all the data available to date.

Then why is the SP where it is? Why hasn't the SP appreciated on a trial that has already indicated stunning results?

I can only surmise either the results are in fact not as good as we are assuming or the trial has been so small as to be almost irrelevant, or the market wants access to all the data themselves before believing wants being put in front of them.

(For instance as an example back in covid days SNG did a big trial showing how they could combat the effects of Covid. when the lengthy trial eventually completed it turned out they were using patients ion other medication so it invalidated their trial. Yet at no time during the trial was this info made public to shareholders and the rest.

Another closer to home example was Avct when continually stated their covid test did not use antibodies and that was its unique selling point. Right up to when AS said it did use antibodies.

The market is clearly not convinced yet as to what AVCT may have. The question is why.

Love, when do you think we will see the first P1b results?

"The usual Spam Bots Touch Thorg Wyn for whatever reason they have can only be shorts or spite."

I am a spam bot now? wow, and I have been programmed with emotional spite. That is a breakthrough.

Its funny the 3 you mention don't happen to share your view.

Is it possible on your own logic that other Spam bots exist here and post, that there may be many more that echo your view to get people like you to buy more and force the SP up?

You may be the only person here the rest of us are just algo's. Wow thats some rabbit hole you have just fallen into.

Why don't you just accept that after 4 years of trials with exceptional data combined with a falling SP that maybe, just maybe there is a bit more to it than we realise. Rather than just insulting posters which to be fair are just stating the bleedin obvious, would it not be more thoughtful to try to address this absolute divergence of facts. ie fantastic data against a falling SP.

The SP is correct. The data we have is partial. We don't know exactly whats going behind the scenes.

4 years of better and better data is a long time for the market to misalign the value of the company.

Do you remember AS saying that to raise finance he was told that the market thought the company was overvalued?

Since then its more than halved, so perhaps right now the valuation of the company, for the data available and the still perceived risk, is actually correct?

How about that as an explanation rather than your one that I am a spiteful spam bot?

"I don’t care whether I am right or wrong,"

well, that explains a lot.....(how often have you been right so far?)

"The facts speak for themselves. AIM traders might be blind to it, I certainly ain’t."

so every single investor in AVCT is blind to it (not just us traders, you know the only ones who have actually made money from this stock. Makes us look pretty good actually, what with being blind yet still comfortably in profit don't you think?)

Has P1b dosing started yet? It is February 2025 after all. Didn't we think it would be in Q3 2024? what has caused the delay? Also, are the 10 days up yet. You remember when it was a formality that the DX division had been sold and I should stop being such a muppet and to shut up in asking where the link was for such an assumption?

I can't remember if that was you or watching. What I do know is that no one will answer my question as to whether or not the 10 days has expired yet.

But yes I am sure you are correct the FACTS do indeed speak for themselves.

"I do believe the science is blockbuster as for why nobody has pounced yet or why exactly we haven't had major II investment then I only guess at the reasons for that. "

That is the Billion Dollar question for sure.

As you say, we should find out this year.

Alderbaron, I agree with alot of what you think.

I guess I deviate at little is I don't think investors are that confused about the DX division. I think they are smart enough to ask the right questions if they need/ed clarification. My agreement in part might be would be if the DX division was losing money. Then it might skew valuations, but again I would not have though materially.

The other bit I disagree with is your comment that BP want absolute certainty. I think that's unlikely as there are numerous examples of companies being boughtout in trial stages. What that says to me, is that it is perhaps more uncertain than we think and that's the gap in our expectation against currently what's occurring.

I too hope that at some stage within P1B that it becomes (relatively) unequivocal as to its potential, but given clearly that is not the broad, market view yet, I have a sneaking suspicion that we are basing the expected results of P1B on the potentially false premise of how good P1a has been in the round.

As always , (as we always misguidely think), "not long to go now!"

Aldebaran, do you really think £30m of debt (some of which will be resolved in a sale at some price), is holding back a company worth apparently several billion?

Gem, I am happy to take on board what you say, but respectfully, what low offer?

What offer are you aware of that has been made that is so low as not to be worth telling the shareholders about?

What do the BoD constitute the value to be? Say we were offered £5b but the BoD think it is worth at least £30B and therefore have not told us?

Or, perhaps it was say, £100m but why would an offer be so ridiculously low if they (the potential buyers) believed it was going to be worth billions?

You say all the answers flow from this, but flow from what exactly? Do you see why this is a bit of a conundrum?

neither of us know so how can we judge or make any sort of informed opinion?

I making mine on the "facts" ie nothing happening over many months and no detailed at all info.. You are making it on no information but an almost baseless assumption without any supporting circumstantial or otherwise evidence.

Thanks Gem,

Point 1: why? If the data is as it seems to indicate. This is not the normal incremental improvement on what's gone before, this is (apparently) Game Changing. There are examples of much smaller improvements being bought out by BP so why not AVCT?

Point 2: There was a reference that there were enquiries from others. but it was very vague and with no detail attached. And it was months ago. Assuming that this was the case, why has it not progressed to something more substantial? (I accept that there might be ongoing conversations but the BoD have a duty to keep shareholders informed in a timely manner. (it is our company, not the BoD's)

Point 3: this could well be true, but what do you mean by investors? Do you mean people who will buy the stock currently and become a meaningful shareholder or people who want to fund AVCT at source and put money directly in to the company? (in either case given the potential of the tech what do you think is stopping them?)

Well done Ice! at last! "What exactly are they waiting for? If they haven’t run the numbers yet, they’re already behind. This needs updated ASAP."

Do you realy, honestly think they don't know?

How can they not with all the contacts and linked in etc etc etc that AVCT have?

So, given THEY KNOW, now whats the answer to your question?

I'm with you Love, except for the reality of the SP. If we know all this so does the market.

If we figured this out a and a few days later so did the market and the SP{ rose significantly, we could genuinely point to "good" research giving us the edge to get in first.

Every cash raise means the data has been touted around all the lenders to convince them to lend. and last year as we neared the very end of P1a, ie lots of brilliant data, it was a lowly 50p a share. Honestly, that tells you all you need to know.

I don't even know if DX is cash neutral? do you? it might be depleting reserves? (hopefully not but its hard to see a profitable company not being able to be sold in a very lucrative market. DX is worth hundreds of Billions a year. Yet Launch and Coris seem not tbe wanted..... You have to ask why, surely?)

BV, through your patronising and rude remarks you completely and very deliberately ignore the points I am making about AVCT on the AVCT BB.

ICE The SP is not irrellevant. It defines the mk cap of the company to allow investors to take a view on value.

Your deliberate attempt to play the "red dot" card has run for years now. and yet it still does not appear even though more and more and more data is released? Why is that do you think?

Does all that good data intuitively coincide with a stagnnt/low SP?

Why do you need to be on the nasdaq to get new investment? Really, I mean it, given you can buy shares in AVCT right now at apparently rock bottom prices, why do you need to go to the USA.

You think US investors are stupid? How patronising are you?

A road show in the US explaining what AVCT have got to either allow them to buy astake in the company or simply to buy shares now.

If you want a Nasdaq listing to raise a fresh £150m then that is dilution. It really doesnt matter on which continant a new listing is acheived.

The fact is AVCT, I don't think, can even raise the money to clear the out standing debt even if they wanted to. It sure looks like its not worth offloading DX at any price otherwise I think they would have done so.

This is hand to mouth stuff every 12-18 months. Any solution to break this cycle would have already been put in place. (AS talked about Nasdaq listings and how long ago was that?)

BV scoffed at H&W yet this is the same type of operation. Lots of talk, lots of smoke and mirrors, but zero fresh investment. Just be careful.

Love, all you say is fair enough as a view i think, except, this is not breaking news.

The trial is 4 years old on the back of even earlier, very promising at the time animal trials. To think as Rah (who as never been right in a single prediction ever), does that the market is not aware of whats occurring is ridiculous.

Why is the FDA taking so long? It is an "old" drug. They have the data. Apparently the data was so good they did not believe it? (yeah right), and since then when they were given assurances it was correct? So what is the FDA waiting for?

Within the first 4 cohorts safety was consistently proved all through the extended doses. Why was that not enough,(given the trial was built around 4 dosing regimes)?

Another 3 cohorts and 18 months later and we are still not doesing the efficacy part, and even then we have to move to phase 2 and then there will now be a phase 3 apparently.

If AVCT want to take this alone, then they need to raise a huge ammount of cash. If its so certain they have something now, already, BP would be buying them out now, even at 1000p per share.

Something is not quite right yet and my best guess is that the trial has thrown up unexpected unforseens which have needeed to be addressed, hence the "new" pipeline and constant time extensions.

BP and the FDA I think are waiting to see if these "unforseems" can be overcome.

To me that explains where we are better than any other view I have read thus far.

I am happy to hear a different view that explains away A: the markets indifference (they are not as thick as mince), and B: BP's apparent lack of interest.

What IP? The milestone payments have long dried up. What do you think that means?

They are trying to sell the DX, they sold the animal division. This is all they have left. Sell that IP and then what?

I think they will be able to get at least one more raise if they have to but they need to deliver within the next 12 months.

That should be possible, but the caveat is the interminable extended deadlines to every part of the trial thus far.

"This entire FUD narrative is hilarious 😆, Avacta is in control, not the auditors. 👍"

No loss making company is in control of its own destiny.

Given my failings are usually the subject of some amusment...

How aboiut Harl with its near £1b actual order that was being fufilled? (They had such a low mk cap they could not go to the market for any more money.)

For goodness sake, I imagine if a raise is needed it will happen as they normally get the chance to flip before share holders get a look in but the point that you think Avacta are in control is yet another aspect of your lack of understanding as to how crucial money is for this type of company.

Why on earth do you think the last raise was at 50p? You think AVCT was in control and AS did that on purpose?

I get you don't understand, but 12 recs....Unbelievable....

"Big Pharma already knows exactly what Avacta has. The current SP is completely disconnected from the true value of the assets, especially AVA6103 (even pre clinical value).

Truth is, the SP doesn’t even matter anymore. It has zero impact on what the full Precision platform is actually worth. Big Pharma will set that price, not AIM."

Which is it?

BP knows the value of avct (48p), ot its worth loads more in which case they don't?

The best case is that BP is monitoring closely the trial but needs more definitive data before coming to any sort of valuation decision offer etc.

Closed at 16.2p so behaving in a very stable predictable manner (That is the official kiss of death...Sorry)

This one (big) day up followed by small fall the next, has allowed the RSI to remain toppy (now 73.35) without being super overbought. 18.5p next target.

If it really wants to show off it will go through 18.5p straight to 23.25p...

Time will reveal all as it always does. :0))