Member Info for wyndrum

If we overlay the news with the chart than the latest sell off seems to have had less of a depressing weight on the SP with a

short lived dip to 46.5. The RSI pattern when the SP fell to 43p showed a reversal indicating it had bottomed out. It then went on a good run up before giving up a lot of the gain.

So the narrowest chart time line is a trading range of 43p-57p. (The longer one is still showing a down trend but I am less concerned about that presently.)

Not the worst point to top up. depends how tight you want to make the stop of course but It still hasn't stopped me out from my last trade which I continue to hold (and coincidently might add to having looked again in detail this morning.)

Anyway only my opinion dyor etc etc.

Sigh, ok Ben, if you really think that, fine.....

"and the first patients to be treated in these expansions are expected imminently in the US."

but tell me based on what the RNS said, when do you think P1b will start or do you think it has already?

This is not a trick question and I am not trying to trick or trip you up.

It is a genuine question as to see what your interpretation is of what AVCT given you are I think, less sceptical than I am.

(The RNS was issues on the 16th of Jan)

Well, it will be interesting to see where it closes today and the from my pov, where the RSI ends up.

LDA, those 2 items were mooted (i think) to try to reassure the market that plans were afoot to turn around the finances of the company.

My view is that there was no real substance to them.

I can only reiterate that as soon as any CEO etc, start projecting expectations into the future then basically ignore them as it is wishful thinking, rather than factual.

And if any think that is harsh on AVCT regarding LDA's observations, then both "statements" could have been hugely more detailed if either was imminent or indeed even in the works to coming to fruition.

Its what they don't say is the key.

Thats why dosing on P1b is "expected to be imminent" means to me there is more chance of an "unexpected" delay rather than a quick commencement.

Largo, i don't actually bash AVCt. (or at least i don't think so.)

I do comment on what i think are biased assumptive unbalanced posts.

It normally goes on long the lines of "all going to plan, can't fail, data unimpeachable, going to be worth billions, DX already sold" etc etc .

Then I point out it is in fact high risk and nothing factually supports those unambiguous statements. These then gets a "we all know its high risk!" somewhat contradicting the original statements written as fact rather than one-sided speculation.

I have stayed in long term but am, as I am sure everyone else here is too, getting more sceptical as to what is actually going on.

Many here won't admit through a post but a Part 1 & 2trial initially had a 2 year time line. this will now likely be between 5-6 years now, with commercialisation 3-5 years away. That assumes that AVA6000 goes the distance. Will the pipeline supercede AVA6000? whats going on with DX, why was AS sacked? why has P1B not started dosing yet?

None of these questions which are relatively current are out of place on a market that refuses to give AVCT the benefit of the doubt on any press release.

It also suggests (at least to me) that this is much less "done" than many here assume. So I am more cautious and expect the worse (stats back me up on this) but hope for the best.

Avct "Note Wyn remains un-impressed . Fixated SP trader . Prefers to rake over old coals , desperate it seems to be proved right . Also self -deluded profit taker , remember it only counts when you actually exit share dealing & bank your profit . Only thing important to me is my AVCT book £ cost (currently in defecit ) Transaction SP paid is academic as is number of shares held . Fully expect to get a very handsome return when i exit target June 2026.."

You brought up the 5 year time line. not me. I am not "desperate" to be proved right, simply responding when posts like your criticise me for basically being right. So its just a reminder to put the "put downs" in some sort of context.

I am not sure what is deluded about taking profits.... (I mean that, read it again out loud). What do you think you will be doing in June 2026?

The most dangerous philosophy when protecting capital (which is the first and single, golden rule of investing) is to site "its not a loss until you sell"

Transaction SP paid is hardly academic as it is half the equation of what profit (or loss) you will have when you finally exit at whatever price that is. (I may have misunderstood what you meant though to be fair).

All I know is that if AVCT fail to deliver, I will still have made money from them.

Avct, ah bless, been here 5 years. thats convenient, I presume you bought in the very lowest point around 20p or was it a couple of months later when it was 200p?

All i know my trading has given me a free ride om my current holding and then some.

I was trying to think if I was being too harsh on my "upside" remark, and I think when they paid in cash last year that was a surprise except now it probably means that the next cash raise will have to be that bit more.

Still genuine...(oh please grow up), holders must be delighted they have never traded this stock as most will be sitting on losses.

By the way it was only on the radio today by a fund manager that investors don't buy stocks with uncertain outcomes.....

So all you terribly clever analysts out there are somewhat of the Mavericks.

(To me it looks as though the £200m spent to date will result in this trial not being seen through to conclusion and once there is enough evidence of efficacy it will go over to target the new pipeline and we start again. Still, it will be RNS'ed and the new extended timelines will be the new de-facto, unarguable proof how everything is going to plan.

(Is the 10 days up yet?)

One of the most reliable indicators I have found is the RSI. The received wisdom is that when it rises to a value of 70 (and above) it is overbought and therefore a retrace/fall is more likely than not.

Yesterday it closed at 68.5 with the SP at 13.75p. Therefore it is starting to get into overbought territory.

(My personal experience suggests that at 70 it can still rise and therefore use 80 or thereabouts on the RSI for more reliable moves.)

it looks to me it might want to test 14.25-14.75p and I think assuming there is no material pull back, that the RSI will be close to the 80 mark.

This is where it gets interesting (for me), a bit of a double bluff...

As a convenient example:

Assuming it does go to 14.5p and the RSI is 80 then it is likely it would be sold off, but where too?

it looks to be around 12.5-13p based on current highs and lows. Given you can buy just over 13p right now, it might not be the worst place in the world to buy as if you are waiting to top up/buy after a retrace it could well be around this price now.

So on the one hand, it is approaching over bought territory (RSI 68.5) but yet there is still an argument to get in now. (hence the double bluff.)

Anyway I think the "risk" to add/buy now (from a chart perspective) is compelling enough (for me) to add further. (Dyor etc etc)

I think you are a 100% correct Chris.

The knack/trick, call it what you will, is to buy loss making companies when you are "convinced" there will be no further need of dilution.

Then it should be a one way journey.

Given the turnover ABDX has, this is a sizeable order. And as I say, "should" increase their exposure to other interested companies.

Given the range now that ABDX are offering from design through to approvals through to manufacture and what seems to be competent management, it looks to be getting to that stage (to me, dyor etc etc)

The other encouraging spin off (imo) is the global recognition and credibility ABDX get from this fairly bright light that has been shone on it by choosing it to be a manufacturer from all the choice that is already out there.

Wasnt me who said there was cash until Q2 25. I just said that was 2 months away.

I was also the muppet that asked for a link confirming that DX was sold on the 30th Dec here when the Non-RNS was released saying the company profile was being changed and some, with loads of recs said it was "done" and "a formality" and I should shut up.

Any time in the future it could be different but not once, not once has AVCt ever surprised to the upside.

" This is what was expected - a cash runway into at least 2Q25."

2 months away....

(is the 10 days up yet?)

Vert, honestly I think most of today’s social interactions are more about hyperbole than anything else. As a result we hang on every independent person’s remark and believe it to be absolutely genuine whereas they may just be being polite.

(My pet peeve is everything seems , “incredible “ when what they really mean is “very “)

I know it sounds pretty cynical but for us oldies it’s a strange world out there these days….

Largo, the easiest route out that I can see is to have very clear data in P1b and to inform the market asap and at every stage. This should allow a rerate of the Sp. In turn that allows a better chance for further cash raising.

What concerns me is that this is a pretty obvious path so why hasn’t Avct already gone down this route before with all the data already available?

Why can’t they seem to offload DX? Why is the coms and PR abysmal given the apparent ground breaking results.

I don’t know what is going on behind the scenes but assuming they are halfway competent then the longer this situation goes on the harder it gets to get ahead.

The 2 options if they are not careful, will end up being either it works and they get bought out for a cheap price or it doesn’t and it won’t matter

Largo,

Let’s go through this.

Sell diagnostics: they have been and are still trying. The most likely reason for the hiatus is because the price likely to be achieved is too low to be helpful

Move to Nasdaq: how much would that cost? Do Avct meet the criteria to do this? If so why haven’t they done this already?

Can’t do another fund raise!? Well if the first 2 issues you raise can’t be achieved then what?get taken private for a pittance?

It’s almost like you understand it’s about the money and not the science

Can you explain what your reasoning is for 4 years into a trial and the SP being almost at its lowest level?

I’m afraid it would be a lot more than 30%.

The Sp would be less than it’s currently and then you factor in the discount to get it away.

That’s why imo it has not been attempted. It’s actually the worst of the 2 options.

It looks to me that the data is simply not reliable enough to make an offer from a reputable company.

It’s just going to have try and slog through it

Liam, why would you add if it goes down? Don’t you think it’s good value at this price?

And how low will it have to be before you think it is worth buying?

Who cares watching whether or not D and me are the same poster?

Why not think A bit more about how idiotic your own post are?

He Does his level best to be up front and honest and where he can, helpful with his posts.

Look at your atrocious history before commenting, why don’t you?

Is the 10 days up yet?

I will continue to ask as the super smug posters that said it was proof positive that DX was sold don’t seem to want to talk about it anymore . But it’s me that spreads Fud apparently