Member Info for wyndrum

I think it reasonable to remember that neither being "positive" or "negative" has any effect whatsoever on the SP or the HE1's prospects. Wishing does not make it so.

There is both a bull case for the stock, (license, discovery, vast potential resource etc etc) and a bear case, whereby there could well be more dilution and/or a failure of commercialisation of the projects.

Shutting down either view is counter productive as none of us can or will, learn anything new.

For those posts that offer nothing , whatever view they take, then just ignore. It is not difficult (in theory), but if any do struggle with the overwhelming need to respond to those types of posts, then perhaps, respectfully, perhaps examine if you are over-emotionally committed to this stock.

my experience, (fwiw), has shown me that emotional attachment to a stock is the biggest hinderance to maximising profit or cutting losses.

just my 2 cents

Actually he hasn't as the selling price has dropped back... it will take something very special for the curse of Hurstbot to be removed

I spoke too soon, ha ha.

This really could be a turning point if Hurstbot does not put the hex on AVCT SP.

There goes the rise.....

Ha ha Digit, that was very funny! happy Christmas!

Have a wonderful time D and no doubt we will all do it all again next year!

(pocket money for me too)

Very true but its only me that trades, you a lot don't believe in gambling but which ever way you cut it it was a "bad" trade.

But Not only can't you win them all but you don't expect to.

Money management is as key to trading as picking the stocks to gamble on.

"He lost his trading pot ,"

er... no. but you believe what you like. (by the way AVCT was 100p then). When a share does not react the way I expected based on the SP, then it tells me loud and clear that I was wrong, so i act accordingly. In the case of Harl I reduced my stake considerably and left an amount commensurate with the risk, the same as I have here.

(I didn't lose "so much" actually).

My logic was that the govt would step in and reschedule the loan and not let them go bust because of the political fallout to that outcome and that they would be allowed to trade themselves out of their debt. This (to me) was supported by the MOD order given to Harl.

So it was based on that, not the obvious financial risk. The market had priced in failure, which is why I have learnt to "trust" the market, much more than a biased BoD via their official outpourings.

The difference with AVCT that it is either criminally undervalued, or has just about no value at all.

The market is not convinced at all as can be seen by the lack of TR1's. And the market has had years and many RI's to build a stake very cheaply if it wanted to, but to date has declined.

The people keeping this afloat right now are the least experienced, most easily swayed of them all. PI's.

"Fingers crossed" is not my favourite strategy but who knows, it will have to do for now.

Chris, harl (as the comparative example I used) had an order book in all divisions, had assets, had USP's, had funding, had 5 strands to their business offering diversity, all in markets that are in vogue, they had a bullish CEO who was in hindsight was very economical with the truth via RNS's.. But debt overwhelmed them.

The only debt AVCT is the current one that can be paid in shares. However, the longer the debt continues so the SP falls, increasing dilution which could lead it to overwhelming the company if left too long unresolved. (I don't think that will be the case by the way but I am not impressed how seemingly relaxed the BoD are with a falling SP).

My point about the LFT is the RN's and BoD talk that accompanied it. Thats the point. As share holders how could we have thought it would fail? (except for the delays and lack of a buyout/tie up that this BB went on and on about.

If you can't see the similarity then fine, but I am sure many others still here can.

Chris, what you mean like AVCT's covid LFT?

This is kind of the problem here (and other BB's), we always think "our" stock is different. it won't fail, everything points to success right up until it doesn't.

When I got in, in 2020, one of the oft cited ideas here were that AVCT had so many shots on goal, so many arrows to fire that they could not all miss. Now we are down to one., with an 84% share reduction, a loan that to date has supressed the SP and since then I think 3 or 4 RI's with probably another one some time in the next 9 months.

If this succeeds (just like all the other companies I cited), then money is not a problem, however the constant delays and tweaking of the trial parameters does not for most, inspire any confidence that there won't be more of the same. It does not wreak to me of a "plan" other than in the loosest sense.

Sacking your CEO, not getting a replacement to the CEO, CONSTANTLY missing out on timelines, none of this smacks of a well run company with everything going to plan with exceptional science.

If it does to you then ... wow.. I guess is all I can say.

"Genuinely howling at this the nervous breakdown here."

(well one, you are not howling) and its hardly a nervous breakdown to call out your complacent baseless attitude to this stock.

The adjectives invented to discredit a different pov is always instructive here.

Chris, I hope you are right.

But the distinction you draw between one being consumed by Debt and one that is debt free is disingenuous.

The point is neither ran or are running at a profit. How that negative cash flow is financed is less important.

Currently we (the share holders) are paying the "debt" via constant dilution (as were Harl Shareholders, right up until no more money could be raised that way).

The way this works is that all BoD's have a "plan/map to profitability, (otherwise no one would buy/fund the company) right up until they don't.

I am not saying this will be the case with AVCT, but as always and I have been castigated for years about this, but time is a critical element, not only for what competition might advance but simply at some stage the money could run out as it does for so many non-profit making Aim companies.

(SYN, AGL,ABDX, Antegumin, ODX, either no longer trading of the shares down around 90% or more from their peak.

As it is AVCT is down about 84% from its peak a few years ago, which as that falls coincides with the start and ongoing trial is not a great endorsement for what the market thinks about it.

So as I can't chill, relax or assume the inevitable, I will always make sure I am particularly not over invested in this one.

I hold/held both Chris, but as a good example, Harl went into administration with a close to, £1b order from the MOD via a Spanish company called Navantia, so what could go wrong?

Well the upshot is Harl could not run at a profit and guess what, now the debts have been written off Navantia have stepped in, "reopened" all the shipyards that harl owned and basically it is as you were,(which is good for those employed), but the shareholders got stuffed. Effectively its exactly the same company.

This is the type of scenario that AVCT could face.

Cash flow/finance is not just key but ABSOLUTELY, FUNDAMENTALLY key.

And there is no CFO.

The view that so any many here with words like "chill, relax, inevitable", seem to hold is , what, smug? condescending? niave? complacent?

Take your pick, but this is imo still, extremely high risk, (much more so than Harl ever was).

"But partners there will have to be, with our finances insufficient to meet the needs of R&D development and trials finances."

Exactly, and there are many ways this can be done, and not all to the benefit of current shareholders. Time is critical. Will it be sooner or later? what will the "terms" be?

We don't know yet what the efficacy is yet.

Without knowing timelines or any details its a meaningless and pointless view. On a par with if this all works out it will be £50 per share

The reason I ask questions B2, is to highlight our lack of knowledge of what is going on and the uncertainty that surrounds AVCT at this stage in their development.

You criticise me for highlighting these things yet you make this type of statement: "FWIW my money is on a new CFO from an unannounced as yet partner."

I get its your view and thats fine, but there is no indication whatsoever that there is a partner waiting in the wings. Nothing at all.

Is your fantasy guesswork more or less helpful to potential new posters here or to some who may want to top up , or in this instance mine where perhaps its more beneficial financially, to keep our collective feet on the ground by showing how knife edge this all is.

"We need one but the need is not as important as everything else."

well, given the financial pressure AVCT is under I am not so sure that is correct.

Lets not argue, but AVCT traditionally miss every forecast on trial timings. So its probable that it will be 9 months (at least) not 6, that P1b finishes. Where will the bank balance be then?

Was is it a good idea to spend £3m to pay in cash earlier this year?

Will DX be sold by then? what will AVCT get for it?

Is a Nasdaq listing really on the cards sooner rather than later?

I would suggest right now a particularly able CFO was an essential given the list above.

At last some positive news but Thorn is right too, we are getting enthused about P1B getting a head of steam up albeit what, 3 months plus later than expected and it is simply the next step, so what were we expecting? (And I think the deviation into Breast cancer sufferers was not part of the trial as he also flagged, until very late in the day, which does suggest the "data" is very fluid and not to me , as predictable as 3 odd years of results on cohorts to date suggested.)

Still, the numbers look better. Not mad yet about "assuming " the FDA is all over this, and no RNS this morning suggests this is just progressing as planned.

A bit extra in the SP into the close, so lets see if thats carried through today. I hope so.

I dont post that often at weekends