Member Info for wyndrum

".no matter how much it might be twisting your guts not knowing what's really going on behind the scenes."

perhaps take your own advice then Bella, because you never give a balanced view which given you don't know whats going on behind the scenes either, is instructive.

The FACTS are, we replaced the CEO (I presume sacked). but what for? His only "crime" I can think of is that he over-egged the trial results. That would fall in line of his previous MO when LFT was being trialled and prepared for market.

Certainly its been about a year and the SP is back to where he did the last raise, so the latest data in that time has not moved the dial at all. Why is that? (Well, we don't know as we all agree) but given the time passed and data release why would the assumption be, its only because of good news behind the scenes?

What benefit is there to keeping better news than we and the general market are aware of, secret? (Unless of course there is nothing material we all are not aware of.)

The news that was released suggested that after all the cohorts and dosing regimes, AVCT are only now starting to see what efficacy might look like in specific tumours and figuringpout how long it stays effective in the body etc etc, pretty much what Thorn suggested a long, long time ago.

Still, none of us know whats going on and the expected improved coms have not materialised but that could be because the news is not as good as we all hoped or that it is going to take a good while longer yet to become a commercial product.

Or there will be an RNS tomorrow contradicting all the (pretty) obvious points I have raised. Who knows?

I don't think so B2, simply because its not that big a deal. Its what £30m? Dx will at some time get sold even for £10m?

£20-30m debt is not ultimately the reason. Sure its a drag on the SP but only because apart from a few, (too few) PI's, no one wants to buy the stock based on the data available to date. Thats why I think the SP can't hang on to any rise

There is no commercial reason that I can see to keep the SP artificially low. I would have thought conclusive data would be released if it was available.

imo dyor etc.

The elephant-in-the-room question is why, to date right now, all this time in and with all the data released, is the SP at 50p , the same, "crazy-low" last cash raise price and no company after all this time and all this data, has bothered to put an offer in?

The obvious conclusion is the data is simply at this stage not remotely compelling to not only not make an offer, but not even build up a stake.

Thats not thin air, thats fact.

The lead on from that is that we, by and large, all think the P1b data will transform the SP (and maybe it will), but if as we assume its the icing on the cake , in the sense this is what all the data has pointed too for years, ie P1B is just going to confirm what we all know, then why hasn't a stake or offer come in yet?

Therefore my conclusion is the data available is more ambiguous than we want to believe or assume.

(Still no release of the end of P1a data which finished what, 4-6 months ago? why would that be withheld? Has dosing started on P1b? if not why not?

My assumption is that P1a has shown either very mixed outcomes, or it needs to target certain cancers very specifically to get results that merit a new take on cancer treatment and is not at this stage, anywhere near a broad replacement to side-affected chemo.

It was not "thin air" but I tried to assess what gain would likely make PI's cash in.

So it is a guess, but no different to all and every comment here discussing future developments being based on guesses as opposed to any fact.

(Is the 10 days up yet and have we sold DX as was wildly expressed on the 30th Dec here?)

Flip, fair point, but they have not come in yet, so why would they suddenly be spurred into action just because someone does put an offer in?

As I tried to point out, the refusal for some here to accept this "low" offer is predicated on stunning news. but if it follows to form and its all more Jam tomorrow with dilution continuing then if not now why would they fight it out?

(Not every buy out is successful as BP is awash with buying companies before results are confirmed and for the trial to ultimately fail, so imo, it doesn't follow that an offer would necessarially trigger a bidding war.)

I am not sure why you think the post is disingenuous?

How many big shareholders are there? (II's) That leaves PI's. How many are "traders"?

Given the chequered history of AVCT with broken or misleading promises, coupled with vague missed timelines of the trial (4 years on for a 12 month original guess) several LTH's are likely to have decided that this poor;y run company was not worth sticking with. That leaves new shareholders coming in anywhere between 50p-100p and therefore if there was an opportune bid at 150p then who knows?

The assumption that this could not happen is predicated on stunning results materialising. Bur when?

Thats not being flippant. This company has only disappointed in every update. Long term they talk a fantastic story but its always years away.

So, another cash raise? a depressed sp with the return still years away? And you can't see that possibility?

Many would snap your arm off for 150p per share in those circumstances.

Touk, I think you must always remember the AVCT BoD work for the shareholders. If what they want and what shareholders want don't align, then there is a problem, and usually the shareholders win out.

If an offer came in for 150p per share it's entirely possible for the amount of long termers to have left, having cut their losses. to be replaced by new buyers from 100p and below, for that offer to be accepted.

Is the 10 days up yet?

I ask because it was the 30th of December that it was stated that we would see the changes to the company.

Maybe its all at companies house and doesn't warrant any further discussion from AVCT as its just a technical adjustment for legal reasons?

However there were a few here that insisted this was proof of DX having been sold.

Any further thoughts?

Haha,

He seems ok.

My guess is that the delay was caused by the first choice(s) not agreeing to join.

Hopefully this is a case of "not the first, but the best.."

The SP moving stuff is going to be trial data. If P1b has not started yet then its starts to push back dates and then we are in forever back to funding blah blah. The DX sale is going to be I think, double edged.

Good that it has gone, bad that the price was below what it was bought at. How the market will react is hard to say, but as its been so long I would have thought it is largely priced in, unless its outside the "group think" on sale price.

The "mirage-like" status of this trial does try one's patience.....

Thanks Largo, every day a scholl day.....(see what I did there?)

Knotagain, how could a buy out have taken place/shaken hands on, without share holder approval?

(Is the 10 days up yet? )

Hi D, no I sold ages ago. I look in occasionally but it seems a bit like AVCT its always just around the corner, ie within a few months all will be great., but somehow it never arrives and all of a sudden years have gone by.

Its not about me.

Its you lot that constantly make it about me.

some (consistently) accuse me of a variety of things and then I naturally respond and defend myself if I feel it is warranted.

So tell me Spbhoy, whose comments over the years have proved to be closer to how events have unfolded?

Thats the problem right there. rather than accept this stock to date has been both disappointing and frustrating and for most, wealth depleting, and why might that be? And are their lessons here which can be applied perhaps more generally to other investments, you reply the way you did.

The "problem" BU, is these BB's are in the main not used for actually discussing investments. Its just another social media platform where some posters think they can say pretty much what you want. (Although to be fair its got alot better over the last year or two.)

On this particular one,those that are the most vocal now seem to be the youngest or most immature.

The "genuine LTH's have had to move their posistion to posting less and saying time is not important etc etc.

The fact they don't want any other view which given the history of this stock is initself remarkable, shows how particularly worthless the vast majority of comments here are. (imo dyor etc etc)

Well, they have mentioned "ambitious plans" to break even. which either means BE is a ways off and another cash raise is coming or... they have an order/funds coming in to propel them there....

throw the dice and all that... (its always a crap shoot)

Hows that worked out so far?

Interesting close at 12p (from a chart perspective).

Confirms the upward trend which will put 12.5p very much in play tomorrow.

It just depends on how contrived the closing price is.

Still, lets not overthink it. puts 16p very firmly a target now as 12.5p is so close to where we are currently.

(imo dyor etc)

This is where I think "research" can not be completely relied on and should only be part of the decision making process.

If you can't (and you can't) always trust the veracity of the BoD statements and even RNS's as well as "researched analysis" papers from popular figures.

It highlights to me, how much of a gamble it is to buy any small loss making stock with great potential. It really is a dip into the unknown and should be treated with the utmost caution and certainly should not take up very much of the overall portfolio.

imo dyor etc.

Ah, traders.... careful.....