Member Info for wyndrum

"We all know the risks here" clearly you don't, as you constantly refuse to acknowledge them by dismissing every view not as rosy as yours as fud or bs.

The downside, is there is no extra info from what the market already knows but there will a big dilution coming through the following week. I imagine that gets us closer to the 11p cash raise price.....

However, the latest and recent social media remarks are (trying?) to paint a picture of increased sales activity. I also think that given often the new shares issued in a cash raising exercise come to market quite quickly, so given the weeks that have gone by it seems to me a decent possibility that there will be some sort of "good" news to support the SP through the enlarged shares available with the release of the official figures.

Its not about success its about a return on your investment, so yes we do come at this from different angles.

Your assumption is that "success" is inextricably tied to a higher SP.

Its not. A scenario could be that the trial drags on longer with FDA approval held up for more data. Money runs out, (again), SP falls further, and then AVCT bought out at a very low price. BP take this tech and a few years down the line and a couple of hundred million, later reap the benefits.

And that assumes the trial meets the claims so far made.

You are making all sorts of vague assumptions and don't allow for a bandwidth of what "success" may look like along with the timeline. Both are essential to any sort of valuation. So you cannot possibly forecast what the SP appreciation will be or by when. How does that shape up to an investment case?

All you ever talk about is a one sided best case outcome, but even then don't know when and can't even say what the best case SP would be as none of us know what the applications will be by when and what profit margin there is in the product. Then there is IP which is a clock-ticking value that decreases with time.

Still, lets not talk about any of that either.

I am one of the few that at least acknowledges the variables involved and that investment "success" is by no means guaranteed.

Seems to me when certain posters lose the argument the thread or my posts get deleted.

Still its all good for newbies having seen the SP over three years be 115p, 119p, 138p and now currently 46p, but ignore me as its all BS and FUD and nothing to do with a better understanding of basic investment metrics that typically influence a SP.

Apologies Spb, I made an incorrect assumption that you were aligning yourselves that dismiss my posts as constant trolling.

In the event of distancing yourself from what I said, does that mean you agree with my analysis of why we are where we are?

Or do you have a different explanation of why the SP is below the latest cash raise at 50p of 8 months ago with more positive data released during that time?

Spb, perhaps the reason less people contribute to this BB, is in fact the dismal investment case this has turned out to be so far and have moved on?

Your logic that I am a "troll" is misplaced. It is a less emotional view of what has come to pass and therefore colours my view of what is likely to follow. I simply have a different view to you but nonetheless am excited by what the trial appears to be delivering but that is countered by the extending timeline to commercialisation.

My view has always been that to explain a falling SP is was because there was no clear path or timeline to AVCT actually making money. That then leads to how does AVCT keep the lights on ie funding. which again from an investment pov is pretty crucial, don't you think?

So, in this logical and likely correct analysis of why the SP is as low as it is, how does that make me a Troll?

Still, best to blame me and a few others rather than look at a stock that has fallen in value since the trial started over 3 years ago and discuss why that could possibly be?

Largo, it was not me that called him clueless.....

Its been a while since I had £40k in this stock...........and if I had not been able to trade it successfully I would have abandoned it a long time ago.

And when exactly BV did you realise how inept and clueless AS and his team were?

Presumably you bought the stock within his clueless reign? Why did you do that?

Says more about you than him, don't you think?

Stop guessing...

And I was not negative, just explaining my view of why I think we are are deluding ourselves if we think we know whats going on supported by actual factual history of the company.

What Facts?

The facts that said there would be no P3? The facts that said don't worry about financing? The fact that said that it would be very unlikely to go to 7 cohorts?

The FACT we never saw 2wd coming? The FACT we never knew FDA would give ODS?

The FACT we don't know if P1b is dosing patients yet?

(And I don't need any help writing down my thoughts and opinions. And that's a FACT)

as always , always, we don't have a clue as to what's going on currently or what the reasons were for what happened previously.

"bad" business deals are done every day. back then coming out of the pandemic with "it's not a matter of if but when the next pandemic strikes" coming out of every scientists mouth, was it such a bad idea to get into and strengthen avct's diagnostic arm? were there strings to the loan to safeguard the business if the tx trial fails/ed so buy another income stream?

i don't know and neither does anyone else here..

its very unlikely imo that the loan will be paid in cash ever again while funds are so tight and for the life of me i have no idea why one payment was made in cash. (that might look even more odd if/when the next cash raise comes and we would have had another £2-3m in the bank.

all the time remember aim is a market for loss making companies to keep raising money, it is expressly not for pi's to get rich. if any do, its a happy coincidence.

if there is effectively a trial black out for the next 4-6 months and 2-3 re-payments then the sp will be hit i imagine based on what has gone before. i think we will rely on tweets and linkedin messages to feel or understand what progress is being made.

imo if it were not for the loan repayments the sp would simply stagnate for the next 6 months (like most small bi0's, very quiet then an update followed by a flurry of action and then another stagnated 6 month period until some sort of tipping point is made.

again, all the research here is an illusion as to what is actually taking place. its all pure guesswork and for the most part, biased guesswork. and that is not contentious as one only has to read past posts and see where we are now running over years to know that is true.

anyone thinking they have been a shrewd investor in buying avct is both delusional and wrong. its been a gamble from the start and will continue to be so right up until the end game, however that turns out.

the avct bod have zero interest in pi's . ii's have zero interest in avct. it's just us that are all filled with their own **** and importance thinking we know anything going on behind the scenes.

just never bet with more than you can very comfortably afford to lose and then none of the swings and roundabouts matter.

Hard to say gbogh, inasmuch the (next) support is 9.5-10p so there is strong argument to wait and a pro trader would.

The slightly more anxious buyer might get in now as its close(ish) to the support and don't want to miss out if it bounces up and never visits the support line.

The reason why the "pro" or perhaps more experienced trader would wait is because they don't care if, by waiting, they miss out. TA is as much about money management as buying or selling at any given price as its do with risk reward based on expected gains and potential loss by using stops ig it goes wrong etc etc.

If they do miss out there are millions of other fish in the sea to trade won.The emotional univolment in the actual stock is key.

Its quite a different mindset to FA reasoning. (imo dyor etc)

I used a reasonable Malbec for the risotto and served an organic red wine from Sainsburys:

(Terre di Faiano Nero di Troia Organic) which has bit of body to it and I think is very good value for what it is.

Complimented the steak element so did not want anything too light and i like italian reds too, quite under rated imo....anyway, everyone seemed to enjoy it!

Largo, its their job to make an orderly market.

If there is multi million share sale instruction, then they will sell it in "orderly" chunks, rather than dumping 5m shares in one hit, don't you think?

BV, well, thats to be expected as AVCT rushed through P1a......

The explanation you site to me, does not add up. well over 3 years of safety testing playing around with multiple cohorts and dosing and 2WD to boot, and it seems to have not helped it accelerating the next part of the trial.

It does make you wonder... (well, it does me).

Certainly at face value its a very bullish remark. we shall see later this week if it fleshed out in some way and not just hyperbole.....

From Lars:

"Making batteries and cells, the units that store and convert chemical energy into electricity, is a delicate process and doing so at scale is a challenge for any battery maker. At CAP-XX Limited we are one step ahead with full scale production..."

To be fair the govt of the day introduced this formal idea of petitions.

But of course nothing will come of it other than its a cheap way of polling for the govt

Perhaps the difference was a very slim majority, but majority none the less voted for Brexit. whereas in the GE 33.7% voted labour and nearly twice that at 62.5 didn't.

The vagaries of the UK voting system, but I think it gives slight more w eight perhaps to the petition, but it will make no difference as them's the rules and we all suck it up.

Ultimately i would assume if none of this goes to plan for Labour (given growing the economy is what everything is pinned on), then maybe a couple of years down the track it could be more uncomfortable for them then?