Member Info for Wigwammer

And millennium just gone over 0.5% short

You are quite right, luxs, and apologies. I was stupidly looking at the half year figures. I do think however that the impact of LIKE’s growth is somewhat exaggerated here though. According to stockopedia LIKE are growing sales about £10m pa, whereas Headlam sales fell over £60m last year. I do also reiterate my point about valuation - Headlam is trading at less than half the value of its tangible net assets. An awful lot of pessimism is already priced in

Very large uncrossing trade. Fingers crossed that takes out some of the selling volume

The stock now trades at less than half its tangible book value, or about a £90m discount. The assets are pretty good quality too - property, flooring inventory etc. I accept they are currently dropping about £20m pa, but £90m is quite a cushion. They have around 10x the sales of Likewise, and around 5x the equity, but a market cap less than double. Surely at some point it becomes a corporate target. Certainly not such an easy call at this price. DYOR IMO

Interesting board this, morri. One minute the concern is that avion aren’t interested, the next minute the concern is that avion are going to run off with every potential indication. Sometimes posts tell you more about the poster, than about the subject itself :)

Pebsi - I definitely see a potential downside if things don’t work out and they don’t get the deals that they want. But I think there is a good chance they DO get a decent deal or two, and that the payoff to that scenario could many multiples of where we are now. Ie very good risk/reward… imo dyor not investment advice etc

As an engineer, I hope you spotted rolls royce at the right time. That was another one where going against the crowd paid off. I missed it unfortunately! Let’s hope something similar can happen here. ATB :)

Another interesting point from the interview is TM again emphasised that they used a respected 3rd party lab in the US to generate the data. That was pretty smart, I think, getting external validation like that. Would be interesting to know specifically which lab, but guess we will find out in time. GLA DYOR etc

I guess partly that no one believes them. Fair enough. It’s been a dog share long term, but that also creates opportunity if you can see beyond the emotional reaction.. I think Tim has done a lot of positive things on the ops side. And one of the interesting aspects about the new research is that Sebastian Goudreau has spoken so positively about it, which I can’t recall in the past : “These results are extremely compelling. Not only do they validate our MOA, they also indicate that P140 has the possibility to become a central treatment for a number of autoimmune diseases. Patients can be very hopeful, I certainly am!" That’s quite a statement from a person who has dedicated their career to helping people with autoimmune issues.

Pebsi - there were sellers at 2p and below last year, even though the company had 2 late stage assets and an even lower valuation. I imagine several were mugged by the “Lanstead is selling” story (it was spoken about enough)… Roll on a year and the shares have doubled regardless. ATB

I should add - I’m not giving investment advice in any of my posts. It has to be the decision of the individual. But having some self belief in your analysis and being patient do appear to be characteristics of more successful investors, IMO. I’m not really one for trading, analysing charts and volumes and investing over short periods. GLA DYOR Do not invest more than you can afford to lose etc.. :)

Well it’s simple. A similar number of people are buying and selling, volumes on each side are matched, so the price isn’t moving much. Part of that will be Lanstead, but I suspect most of it is just bored PI’s easily parted with their shares cos they aren’t making a quick buck.

Think about it. The sharing agreement is around 330k shares a day to be sold, or around 7m shares a month. By comparison over 400m shares were traded in January, nearly 7m shares were traded yesterday on the back of an interview. In the event the right newsflow comes along, the sharing agreement volumes will be swept aside in terms of interest… If you have a modicum of patience and you believe the right news is coming along, then just turn off your screen, turn off peterpharma and the other profitless morons, and wait patiently… GLA DYOR etc

All of that is true. But nowhere does it state that the share price consequently drops by the amount of dilution. I’m only going to say it once more because it is a waste of everyone’s time to keep repeating it - but the market ALREADY KNOwS about the almost inevitable warrant dilution. So it is very likely that it is already reflected in the price.

I didn’t double down, nolupus. I expanded my position nearly 100 fold and backed it up with around 150 posts in the 12 months leading up to January. You are aware of this - yet you try to angle it a different way. Your intransigence deserves condescension, because you rarely post anything that is balanced, contrary to what you state. Welll done GG - the market is slowly understanding what you have been emphasising for the last year or so (and what nolupus has been regularly contradicting) … GLA DYOR etc

Nolupus - nobody is talking about going back to 2018 (except you). I don’t even think lollywally owned the shares back then. But since GG and myself have been sharing positive thoughts on the stock - starting 12 to 18months ago - the market has started to wake up and the share price has doubled. We have called it well. Over that period we have heard your concerns about the lack of newsflow, the lack of scientific progress, the incanthera losses, the lack of cash, worries about Lanstead selling, the lack of Tim having skin in the game, lack of news on the trial, worries about avion walking away, concerns about avion running off with the assets etc etc etc… None of it has stopped the shares doubling though :)

Goldgirl - You are right, but bear in mind the shares have already doubled from where we were this time last year. The market is STARTING to understand. Jeez even lollywally who was the biggest cynic of them all has changed his tune, and now (after the event) admits he still owns the shares. Need to stay patient :)

Lorenzo - I have no interest in convincing you one way or another. I am simply stating the realities because you are misleading people. If the warrants are exercised then it does not follow that the shares will drop 8% on the day. That is you being naive. The market is well aware of the warrants and that they are almost inevitably going to be exercised, so the event is almost certainly priced in. If they exercise the warrants and then sell the shares that may create downward pressure on the price, but that is quite a different thing. GLA DYOR

I recall about this time last year, lollywally and pals were claiming that Lanstead were wrecking the asset with all their selling. One year on the shares are double where they were, and lollywally had changed his tune, and others have come in saying the same thing he used to… Key things here : very low valuation + late stage assets = attractive risk/reward. Now the news flow is also heading in right direction and they have funding after a small dilution. DYOR IMO etc

“Current trading in line with our expectations, which assumed a muted start to the year compared with 2024.” Well this may have been their expectations but they evidently forgot to correctly guide analysts, who are now downgrading their price targets. Not good results, not good guidance. Having listened to the call there are reasons for optimism on the nitrile side post consolidation of Chinese players and US tariffs protecting domestic players, they continue to work on three divisional divestments where they hope to see event in Q2, and obviously the valuation is lower than at just about any point in the past. They also suggest that the one offs that figured in 2024 are largely complete, although they have guided poorly in this department historically. I’ve been buying more and have been all the way down from 230p. Hope springs eternal.