Member Info for Wigwammer

Xviolet - your last post bemoaned the point that if a deal was imminent then the dilution would have been smaller. Until it was pointed out to you that the dilution WAS small. Now you move on to something else. Of course, if your predisposition is to only go looking for the negatives and risks, that’s probably what you’ll find. ATB

I also suggest you look at note 17 of the half year report - a decent number of the warrants have already been exercised. Lost track of the latest situation, but one way or another it’s a pretty marginal dilution from here on in. GLA DYOR

Lorenzo. When the warrants are exercised - as they almost inevitably will be - the shares outstanding will rise and the eps will fall, as you say. But the point is the market has known about this inevitability for a long time, and so it is likely to be largely priced in. It is why market participants usually prefer to look at fully diluted estimates - which include dilutions such as warrants and options when calculating metrics on a per share basis. I am an amateur punter and I’ve been assuming a fully diluted nosh (share count) of 1.2bn for as far back as I can remember - since the warrants went into the money at 6/7p. Even assuming that dilution, you still get to nigh on 30p a share tangible equity. And every week it is likely that tangible equity number is moving up, because GMS are producing such a lot of cash. GLA. DYOR

With respect Lorenzo, that is not how it works. The market is already well aware of the near inevitability of the warrants being exercised, and will have started to factor this into valuation some time ago. The company has already given EBITDA projections for 2024 and 2025, which leave little room for interpretation. Tangible book value must be nearing 30p at this point, and given earnings, returns and cash conversion I see little reason why the shares cannot hit or surpass this target in 2025. GLA

“ I broadly agree with your calculations and estimates.”… your PBT number was half tourists?! Bit of a red flag on the calculations!

Ah 2024 numbers. Isn’t the market thinking beyond this? I mean, we already know the year end net debt figures for year end. Suggests underlying cash conversion is superb, which suggests the flags are far more green than the suggested red. IMO

“I don’t believe that their earnings are as straightforward as many others seem to believe.” The company is guiding to $100-108m EBITDA for 2025. They probably have a decent grip on the earnings calculation.

“ the share price falls 8% (or so) due to the dilution”… I very much doubt it. The market already knows about the likely dilution

Perhaps TM is fooling everybody, peter, and the shares are valueless. Or perhaps TM has not tried to fool anybody, but things have taken longer than expected, as is often the case in biotech development. Max downside 100%. Max upside 1000%+. It doesn’t take a genius… Perhaps you have been fooled many times in your life peterpharma, and have become a little oversensitive about it. Gla

Hmm. So lollwally has repeatedly suggested he doesn’t trust Tim, and (at least since the shares multiplied) repeatedly claimed he holds the shares. Which doesn’t quite fit with what he has just stated. That’s lollylogic for you :)

It WAS a small raise. 10-15% dilution against fully diluted 550m nosh prior to announcement

Tiger - if you are an investor here, and have a half sensible time horizon, does it matter?

Max downside. 100%. Max upside 1000%+. When one gathers the requisite brain cells to understand this, the path to an intelligent decision becomes clearer. ATB

Good points, guitarmusic. The cynics want to focus on the trial starting - but there are at least half a dozen other avenues of newsflow that could drive the shares powerfully upward. Btw I don’t there is any re regulatory requirement to make such an announcement. ATB

The company has recently signed CDA’s with multiple biopharma groups following the breakthrough RNS. From memory, this has never been reported before. It is not only Tim, but the head of research Sebastien Goudreau who is underlining the importance of the findings and increasing interest : “Our lead asset P140 and its application in autoimmune diseases… is now gaining significant attention within the biopharmaceutical industry." Again from memory, Lupuzor has never appeared on the Avion website. But we know from the Dec 2023 RNS that Art Deas, CEO of Avion believes “We continue to be excited by the potential of P140 and we look forward to working closely with ImmuPharma and Simbec-Orion, to develop this potentially life changing treatment for Lupus patients." We know from the prior phase 3 trial that there can be lengthy periods of radio silence during trial preparation. We also know very sizeable deals in autoimmune have been signed over the last year or so, suggesting that the value of the p140 platform has likely risen since the deal was signed. Most importantly we know the diluted market cap of immupharma is very small and funded for next 18months+. If the market cap was £300m I might have some sympathy for the cynical view, but at this price strikes me as excellent risk/reward. IMO GLA DYOR. Risk only what you can afford to lose. Not advice etc..

No peterpharma, the most profitable thing to do at sub 2p was to ignore the noise. The most profitable thing to do after would have been to sell at the 7p highs. Maths evidently not one of your strong points (one wonders what is). We know from the 2016 Lanstead agreement that when it is followed by positive newsflow the shares can multiply. Obviously, if there is no positive news flow, the shares will fall. Your posts don’t amount to much more than pointing out this obvious truism. Do you know for sure there isn’t going to be positive newsflow, peterpharma? The attached payoffs to each outcome look rather asymmetric to me. GLA :)

I agree spantrout. There was lots of noise at sub 2p as well, and the most profitable thing to do was ignore it. GLA

Goldgeez - it is a binary punt, but as you have suggested - the payoffs are vastly asymmetric. As a shareholder you cannot lose more than 100%. But if the right newsflow arrives then the upside may be many multiples of 100%. That’s why I underline that the £26m valuation is key to understanding the investment case. Really interesting risk/reward imo. Btw re funding remember part of the cash raise was a standard placing for £1m, and they have very low cash burn. GLA DYOR IMO etc

I think we need patience, GG :)… Quick recap. The company has signed CDA’s with multiple biopharma groups following the breakthrough RNS. From memory, this has never been reported before. It is not only Tim, but the head of research Sebastien Goudreau who is underlining the importance of the findings and increasing interest : “Our lead asset P140 and its application in autoimmune diseases… is now gaining significant attention within the biopharmaceutical industry." Again from memory, Lupuzor has never appeared on the Avion website. But we know from the Dec 2023 RNS that Art Deas, CEO of Avion believes “We continue to be excited by the potential of P140 and we look forward to working closely with ImmuPharma and Simbec-Orion, to develop this potentially life changing treatment for Lupus patients." We know from the prior phase 3 trial that there can be lengthy periods of radio silence during trial preparation. We also know very sizeable deals in autoimmune have been signed over the last year or so, suggesting that the value of the p140 platform has likely risen since the deal was signed. Most importantly we know the diluted market cap of immupharma is around £26m and funded for next 18months+. If the market cap was £300m I might have some sympathy for the cynical view, but at £26m this strikes me as excellent risk/reward. IMO GLA DYOR. Risk only what you can afford to lose. Not advice etc..

GG - Pretty sure Lanstead had a sizeable holding in immupharma in March/April 2018, well AFTER the associated 2016 sharing agreement had expired. More importantly, the shares rose from 25p to 180p+ over that period despite Lanstead selling… But this is all by the by. Most here couldn’t give two hoots about TR1’s and silly bets, but they remain highly amused by the entire lack of the “dump” predicted by peterpharma :)