Member Info for Walp

Wildtiger, I'm not convinced on that basis you will be buying into SMT again, but it's always possible. Holding right now still strikes me as the most sensible option, but who knows who is right?

I guess as part of a larger portfolio strategy (win some/lose some) you could argue for this approach if you enjoy that kind of thing, have the time and more of a "daytrader" mentality. My strategy has always been to understand potential, buy well, hold, get on with life more than fret over gains and losses and (as discussed endlessly) make an assessment of gains and losses in relation to total time held (accepting that those buying in Nov 21 or thereabouts) were unfortunate.

The tide of current market conditions (exacerbated by inflation and recurringly depressing world events) will eventually turn, despite me being increasingly of the mind that the heady heights of the SP before high inflation/Ukraine etc will take a great many more years to attain.

I think it's still (by far) worthwhile holding, but could be proven wrong. If it all goes up again, when exactly do you buy back in, and at what stage (if it keeps going) do you kick yourself for a strategy that has lead to missed opportunity?

Each to their own, of course.

The way I see it is that there is bound to be resentment from some of us. It's natural, I guess.

The trouble for me with SMT (whether anyone agrees or not) that SMT was always top of the list as goes stellar performance prior to the drop, and became frothier than anything because of it.

I blame that (at least in part) for the drop in SP to date, simply down to the larger numbers joining the bandwagon when it represented easy money (which of course then equated to the reflected loss in value when everyone buggered off.

Despite the comments I have empathy to those who have lost out at a time that they cannot afford to. We all live and learn.

Badprophet, it's called investment risk. The only reason people are feeling sore is that they expected the most stellar collective performer out there to keep going up even when inflation gravity alone pulls it down (because that's all that's at play).

Sure, there's the as yet unfounded risk of the unlisted concerns, but everyone had the choice to either sell or not buy when the strategy went that way.

We've (a lot of us) lost a lot of money here so far, but far better to understand why and own it as our own investment decision. Despite losing over £200k from all of my investment concerns since the frothy peak of Nov 21, I still hold and am philosophical.

AquarianAge. Times move on, people move on, strategies change.

In the current market conditions which are primarily and obviously to blame for the general demise in SMT, I see the blame game as a bit like a pub goer having 12 pints and a pork pie and blaming the pork pie for feeling rough afterwards.

Sure there are those who see Anderson as having the Midas Touch and who will say he left because he knew it was all going to go belly up (rats/sinking ships etc), but people do move on in life and it was his right to do so.

Sure SMT has done a little worse than other similar investment instruments to this point but a lot of this I feel is down to persistent negativity as concerns strategies as yet to be found wanting.

Sure buying into the unlisted has effected sentiment to buy into SMT, much of which probably comes down to individual perception and ability to absorb risk.

I for one am good with it and personally predict once a slide commences back into the black that SMT will likely over perform the current lesser losers .

Shall we just see?

I posted in on Mnks? Do you mean Monks Investment Trust Oogleflugal? If you mean that I can see it here amongst the discussion for SMT?

Im respectful if your distrust for ITs, despite not really understanding why. They are simply a collection of different companies that I would trust investment experts to compile a lot more than myself. I can see no conceivable negativity in them apart from the oft sector bias they contain & the glaring failure of the past three years effecting the best of them is to the greater degree the currently high global inflationary rates that stretches out the payday for them.

A great deal of reason for the current SP you see (in SMT for example) therefore reflects the fact that those riding the pre inflationary (frothy) tidal wave of a consistent low inflationary winner have buggered off as they know it won't make money for them in the shorter term.

I know if I hold on it's more likely than anything else right now to do so given time (having just philosophically "lost" a great deal of money since the peak). I have held SMT since around 1995 and as ever continue to ride it throughout the market conditions (good and bad).

That's why I'm holding, but full respect to your opinion.

Oogleflugal, why?

SMT were the obvious choice for everyone to pile into pre November '21 and that to my mind explains why they have performed worse than other similar less obvious trusts out there. All these kind of investments have suffered, and beyond questioning the practice of acquiring unlisted investments they really haven't done anything questionable that I can think of?

Unlisted acquisitions certainly are slightly riskier for the shareholder, but having said that the "risk" fits in well with SMTs overt strategy of identifying future winners before values become overinflated in order to maximise returns. They only select extremely large and solid unlisted concerns unlikely to fail and I for one accept that risk as worthwhile.

Most investors are looking for more immediate returns which along with all of the above reduces the individual popularity right now of SMT.

I do understand the shock felt by investors who bought at much higher prices than right now, but please understand that had inflation remained at 2% post Nov 2021 you wouldn't be viewing SMT personnel as particularly incompetent right at the moment.

Just got non ISA Santander saver at 5.08 fixed for one year but easy access. Not too shoddy considering inflation looks downward.

May even pay out above inflation after a year if the sun's and moons align..

Tambo210 and Tom78, if it's the worst ever and the managers should be held to account, what should they be held to account for?

Isn't the disparity down to a simple reflection of sentiment versus value? There's been a fair bit of discussion about this on here in the past, and whilst the difference does reflect the perception of risk as goes an increase in the percentile of unlisted companies it actually gives me more confidence that the only way is up.

I base this in the fact that the SP has already been depressed (and over depressed I feel) and so the SP damage has already been done.

The nav may go down eventually or it may remain static.. it will even go up if any of those unlisted companies go pop in the meantime .. i

Not sure exactly, but it certainly appears well over a year at around 20% and I hear no pop (confirmed by a nav that hasn't worsened)...

I don't feel it's a biggie, but do understand the concern.

I meant to finish; We are all here united by the fact that we hold SMT and have made a monetary loss of some level of another since the peak. It's heartbreaking when you buy into something that you rightfully research as a good investment and you see only loss, but this happens to the very best of investors.

At least you were drip feeding CP, which has reduced your losses.

If I were you and feeling bad about it I'd get my calculator out, go through your buying history and work out exactly your losses to today. Given you may well have bought quite a lot at a good price, your losses will probably not be as high as the difference between the £15.28 peak and the current price? On that basis I would be surprised (all things being good and fairly predictable) if you didn't go into profit in quite a bit less than 5 years... Why don't you try doing some illustrations if you are holding?

I have never drip fed and actually "lost" nearly £58,000 in SMT alone since the £15.28 height. I also lost about this much (as I held more but they didn't fall as badly) in both PCT and ATT. In all of my portfolio I "lost" over £200,000.

Despite this I have currently (after all those years of investing) made more than I have "lost" (even accounting for inflation), but that is purely because I bought over 20 years ago and held or added when able come what may.

I understand the resentment you feel (I really do), but feel it would be more useful to consider all of your investments history (as I have done in my personal illustration above) and not just underline the loss you have made here.

It could be that you have only made losses since beginning which does happen to one hell of a lot of investors, but despite this being tough luck it is a face of the dice that we all have to accept before we shake and roll.

You didn't do anything wrong and didn't buy into something worthless, you just completely unknowingly bought at the wrong time. This stuff happens and all there is to do is to pick yourself up, dust yourself off and plough on with positivity.

As I've said before a few times, I absolutely implore you to hold onto your investment in SMT because it would (imho) be a backwards mistake to sell at a point that SMT is at its lowest apparent point whilst also at a point of a fair bit of kinetic energy (my opinion) down to improving inflation and sentiment... Having said that, if it causes you to spend a proportion of your life in distrust of SMT & occasional bitter regret then I implore you sell it and buy something that you feel confident will perform adequately within the confines of the extent of risk you wish to take with it.

In my mind and right at this very moment there is probably about 10% of short term doubt as concerns SMT, 60% short term positivity an 90-100% long term positivity in SMT.

Your losses weren't your fault, they weren't SMTs fault and they weren't anybody else's fault. It's just one of those.

I would as usual advise a hold given the strong likelihood in my mind that you will recuperate your losses before too long, but whatever you do do not impede the quality of your life by hanging onto it if that's what's happening. I say that in full understanding and sympathy with your situation.

We are all here united in monetary loss down to the perf

Agreed LLL.

I know he didn't recommend 9 years, but the length of average holdings it might be inferred that this would be an even more sensible timeframe, especially given the past 2 years of loss and poor performance.

It just struck me that to point this out would subtly underline (and offer inference) of the extraordinariness of the past couple of years and somehow curb the "5 year" expectation of holding and profiting, as I personally believe reaching the £16 2021 height by 2026 to be probably fairly unlikely.

It was simply my interpretation of a subtlety in his commentary.

Another poster here (can't remember who) had posted that this current aberration isn't one of the biggest in the trusts history also.

As ever I feel very happy to have SMT in my portfolio right now.

Thanks for the link LLL.

Can't find anything glaringly out of place there myself and I see no reason to criticise anything other than him appearing to suggest the trust now be held for beyond 5 years (he suggests 9 as an "average" under the current circumstances).

That premise would certainly result in some lively [done to death :) ] exchanges based upon previous discussion here, but it does seem a reasonable (indeed anticipated by self) premise under circumstances that have little to do with SMT.

I don't however believe it will take an inordinate amount of time for SMT as stands to recuperate a great deal of the losses since Nov 21, but that's just my best personal guess..

It seems obvious to me that returns are going to be stretched out by the current loss of sentiment for investments less likely to deliver "jam tomorrow", and so I don't hold this against him.

I guess even if high interest rates continue for quite a few more years (and indeed stay higher that they have in the previous decade) then eventually these type of investments will make money as the resultant innovations and successes become increasingly prevalent?

Maybe a better way to view it is akin to a "hole" or "depression" within these kind of investments caused by the shock of high inflation which productivity and innovation will eventually fill resulting in an inevitable increase (dramatic or otherwise) in fortunes regardless of continual higher than the wished for low target future interest rates?

That's kind of how I view it, although I do think it will be quite a while between we see the prior frothy height of a £15 SP again. Again, who knows??

I cannot quite visualise things not becoming at least quite a bit more comfortable with SMT in the near future, but never say never, I suppose...

And on that note I've said my piece(plus contributed in my wish to settle the dust on clogging up yet another thread that would have been more useful to members had it not been).

Might be worth someone starting a new thread and we can try again?

Ok, ok Fela...

So we are human and sometimes we embellish. We are not machines and "to err is human".

We are mainly intelligent investors on here and so it's a bit rude, inflammatory and largely pointless to underline everything anyone says on this... All you are going to achieve (I promise you) is alienation, a lower likelihood of contributions from members who believe they will be criticised, decrease the flow of free thought and expression and ultimately mute and stupefy a useful medium for the exchange of thoughts and ideas.

We can ourselves infer the nuances of any given offering on here from any particular member without it having to be elevated as a "wrong" and debated to the 'nth degree.

Can you not see that?

We are not machines on here subject to criticism or deep introspection of each uttered sentence, and if we were I wouldn't be joining in.

I value the general jist of all contributions on here whether they amount to verbatim or not, but there is a standard and etiquette in the way things might be challenged in comparing opinion.

I wish to God you understood this as (IMHO) your logic and knowledge does sit far more comfortably here than your oft (shall we say) slightly blunt approach.

I'd say that LLL made money ABOVE inflationary rate erosion since 2016 (most years close to 2% inflation per annum) now we have arrived at Sept 23.

Doubling your money over 6 years amounts to 14.28% appreciation per annum. I'd suggest the average inflationary rate over that period to be no more than (say) 4%?

On reflection is that shoddy?

As to exactly how LLL framed it and for what illustrative or practicable purposes, who cares?

We are all human and having our statements picked to death by others on here encourages our own statements to be picked to death on here..

Go figure...

Ok. So SMT is a long term hold.

Investments can go up, but they can also go down.

Agreed.

Next argument?

Fela,

Just using your argument if the 6 year timeframe lets move that argument back to looking back just 4 years at the point of November 2021, shall we? It would be better had I an all time graph at 6 years, but I don't..

Does 300% profit sound decent performance to you???

It's all relative and you can't just pick this moment in time because it suits a pointless argument and say that "that's the truth of SMT"..

The fact you are holding tells me you know this too..

Keep the challenges coming, sure (as it promotes useful reflection which it's obvious you enjoy engendering), but this argument is deceased I'm afraid.

Ok Fela... Scrolling down now I see you have accepted SMT as worth holding...

I'm pleased..

Failing?

Succeeding?

Who cares..

It's all relative...

Fela, the point is that I don't care about "representation of decent performance" and it's only you who seems to be endlessly focussed on that (bringing it back in despite the fact it's been discussed fruitlessly for months).

Such very simplistic reflections are useful as a standby, but it's blindingly obvious why SMT has slunk in the manner it has and your argument accepts absolutely zilch as concerns the reasons SMT has done so badly.

Those reasons amount to a far more compelling argument as to the loss aberration, so why do you consistently fail to focus on those?

You've admitted you are holding SMT, and so on that basis why the subject pessimism seeing as it appears to suggest you enjoy seeing your money go down the drain?

We know it's done badly.

I know you do this to promote heat (which can be a very good thing) and that is great, but arguments based on the past don't hold up in the case of this type of investment in the current world economic environment.

You know this???

Can we have your thoughts therefore on any possible upside in the future?

What do you personally think will happen with SMT?

Fela, We all know SMT haven't performed well and crash dived more than most since late 2021.

Just because it happened, it doesn't mean that SMT is actually a dud investment.

I know you call this out simply to underline it's fairly rough recent performance, but we all know this and so it isn't necessary.

Once the slide started, most assumed it would stop and so as time went on (and it didn't) people held on rather than play the old (usually fail) game of knife catching.

I held on and did nothing (apart from adding a few) because I personally believe SMT will recuperate a lot of their value and still do fairly well against inflation for the (admittedly) long period I have held them.

I have faith in this trust despite the nav abberation and all the rest of it.

Whilst I am luckier than many because of having bought donkeys ago, should my belief in fairly sustained recovery be proven true then those who have bought at the top of SMTs price history (when it was frothy as Hell) will gain also via not ejecting prior to or even during a period of sustained recovery.

I expected a slide when inflation went up, but never dreamed it would get this low. None of us did in truth.

Crucially I have argued all along that the endless debates re "Anderson taking SMTs performance out of the door with him", " boardroom spats", " dangerous investment tactics" etc, ad infinitum negative media... all in fact amounted in my mind to crushing sentiment beyond similar trusts (IE ATT for example, which also lost, but not as badly).

I therefore believe that SMT refinding trust and losing its critics (which I believe to some extent it already has done so) will increase its value more than those similar trusts as we emerge from these current economic conditions.

I think all LLL said was that he felt optimistic that things would get better, not that SMT had performed amazingly for him from his purchase until today. We have debated that old onion and infinitum.

I'm holding with optimism because I personally believe that things will get a lot better for SMT, but this isn't made up purely by comparison to indices, theory and mathematics (in fact I have to admit only as goes those aspects to an embarrassingly small extent)..

Nope..

My assessment is based upon 35 years of solid investing, knowledge of human beings, their general psychology and keeping my nose to the ground.

As I get older I realise these attributes are more use to me than indices, theory and maths, but that's my perspective..

You can have yours but it doesn't mean that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

None of this means I don't think about what you write on here, which is all to the good (in my mind at least) :)