Member Info for Walp

Sfh300 I say that with thanks for providing the link. On a positive basis I believe it at least points to the fact that these investments have better days in them just in the same way as they have just experienced bad. I always adhere to my mantra however of buying well and holding. Despite seeing myself lose around £70k down to SMT plunging since Nov 21 alone, I have never regretted holding it throughout and see no reason to continue this stance (especially now).

i think what they mean is "is it time to create cash for the financial services involved in drumming up fees from sell and buy deals".

given the piece (as usual) has basically no conclusion to the question proposed yet acknowledges the fact that the "dog" investments might have done very well indeed before certain economic spectres hit the scene (the reasons for which are obvious to anyone holding a chunk of cash in any of it), i'm pretty sure we are all none the wiser by the piece.

my point is not to be contentious just for all to simply gravitate down to the fact that many such pieces are written purely to generate investment activity (which is highly profitable.

doghouse my **** and i'm holding every cent invested across all my "doghouse" investments.

me? cynical???

noooooo... 😉

Thanks StrictlyZinc. I do think £30 by the end of the decade is excessive, but as you say I certainly won't bet against it for no good reason.

Its not all positivity from me however, but for global reasons rather than as goes an individual IT such as SMT.

I truly believe that the world now has far too many people on it and is facing a slow catastrophic window toward ultimate human extinction. That's a big assumption but the evidence has been mounting for this over decades and the facts are now all plain to see. There will be more and more world economic draining wars and natural catastrophes, and there may be also a greater repetition of world inflationary events such as the mother of a one that we have just been through...

On that basis does that mean that tech (including those ITs that even loosely gravitate around tech) necessarily has/have to be come unprofitable? Tech for me is all about evolution towards current need, and that's simply why tech wil always be profitable long term (volatility excepting) as mans strongest desire is to survive and prosper.. it's a repetitive matra from me that one, but one I am not sure people always fully appreciate.

SMT was highly overpriced at the time it started downhill amongst all similar in Nov 21 and I'll personally be ecstatic to even see £20 by the end of the decade.

Buy on basic facts, don't get swayed by media without obvious cause or conviction, don't follow the herd when things tip on negativity, be convinced, never sell.

Amen.

there is absolutely no reason for negativity as concerns smt. the fact that there is (as in it's a slow rise comparative to the likes of att) shows clearly to me that it's purely a case of smt being the presiding media negativity target. it all started rolling downhill on the announcement that anderson was going and presumption he was leaving a sinking ship. distrust in slater (even evidenced by people on this forum) and the bhide bust-up *******s also set people's minds generally against the trust. the nail in the popularity coffin then was of course the rise in unlisted acquisitions, the apparent drop in sp and sentiment down to that being the ridiculous assumption that all 30% of investment was doomed to total loss..

i've always expounded the underestimated negativity of media influence on here (on occasion being told it is only of minimal consequence), yet my knowledge of human psychology says otherwise.

the 30% unlisted aside (and only because of the irrational fear this engenders in punters despite them all being potential biggies of the future with fabulous financial parachutes) may well be a consideration for smt to taper down as it bars the purchase popularity.. i do however see smt as a great investment even at its current price (steadily up in a non volatile fashion over the last many months). my prediction is that there will become a point at which the upward curve outdoes that of att (for example). for me that is simple logic, which is what we all need to focus on and not human emotion. nice also to see some positivity on these pages (at long last) from many who have despaired in the past.

another point struck me the other day.. less than a year ago there were stories circulating in the financial media that the nasdaq was broken and would never attain or exceed 13,000 (ie tech is dead).. i also accept arguments that "smt doesn't strictly follow the nasdaq", but i've been looking at it every day for the past 2 decades and it does actually relate at least in comparative terms extremely well (just saying)..

all i'm saying really is that we should banish any speculation or thoughts of the media who fund themselves via their sown speculation, largely ignore the accompanying reactions of the herd and just look at the basics facts and likelihoods. it's taken me a great many years to understand this is what it all comes down to and i've been correct so far. it's not all of it, but it is most.

Stuartrmn, I hold an equal amount of PCT as SMT and agree it has done a lot better since the general decline beginning Nov 21.

I personally believe this to have been for a number of over hyped reasons that still engender stubborn resistance (discussed on here over the last couple of years to exhaustion) and feel it likely that SMT will gain popularity and outperform PCT in the not so distant future.

Could I be wrong? Yes... but I do view the likelihood more likely than the reverse scenario.

I still consider SMT a steal at today's SP as nothing has really occurred in that portfolio that actually evidences such abject negativity (excepting the increased risk as concerns the 30% unlisted holdings, that is).

Welcome ThePecker.

I guess we all wish we had sold at £15 and bought back in at £6.40, but no one knew where it would stop, I suppose.

I agree it will again get past £15 in the LT, but think this will be quite a number of years in all honesty.

To be realistic that level was reached at the time down to everyone piling their money into it as it was outperforming everything down to beautifully fitting conditions.

Lovely to see the volatility lost in recent months as we emerge into greener pastures, but at £15 I guess we all knew it was a pretty frothy valuation.

Let's hope that if it's all down to the lack of future confidence the well paid managers have the insight to see the future likelihood and adjust accordingly.

I'm thinking tech developments in AI and other advances might however play a reasonable part in this.

Whichever, I'm guessing it will effect come concerns more than others in whichever direction.

The pressure is also (rightfully) mounting re regulation for concerns such as meta and others, going from US critique and challenge (in the main) to a more Westernised lowered tolerance re regulation.

I have to say that I totally agree with Brianna Ghey's poor mother in restricting FB (and other med) down for children, which of course is going to dent the profitability of these type of concerns..

Will it happen? In the past it's been difficult down to the base fact that these companies are "doing nothing different or illegal in their current operations, yet I believe the snowball is getting bigger and there will be one a point.

Interesting thinking both as goes the investment in these companies and (ultimately as shareholders) our consciences.

It's only a 6% up on 6 months ago today, make that 5.5 months and it's nearer 20%, but whatever.. Volatility, volatility (hopefully less of that now)..

I guess no one knows anything beyond the certainty of death, but heading towards greener inflationary fields I would agree that investing in SMT for the long term from here on in would appear a fairly rational strategy however it subsequently ends up (to my mind at least).

That from someone privileged enough to have suffered the good over many years, then the very bad post Nov 21 (bust still being very happy with the net return over my long investment period). A massive shock to those buying more recently, which I am empathetic to.

It's certainly a long term hold or nothing I would suggest, and there is certainly always the possibility of further volatility and shock.

Nice article, LLL. Thankyou.

It summed a lot up for me... Volatility and risk aversion being major keywords in the article that to my mind have played a big part in recent underperformance whilst not being particularly logically derived when looking at the big picture (imho).

Admittedly it's been rocky, but I believe those disciplined enough to sit on their hands will likely see fruit before too long.

Tambo 210. Ok, I accept it's a bit convoluted, but I get what he is saying. He is basically saying that it is more important to procure the future success stories than those that don't blossom.

It makes sense to me and I believe it to be an honest statement that reflects the attitude of SMT.

How do others read it?

Apologies mistake start of my last post.. interesting that it's ok for Israel to behave this way and not Russia... Different circumstances, sure, but mass population slaughter and invading/subjugating any country doesn't seem to have much excuse in my mind :(

Interesting how it's ok for Israel to do this kind of thing but not Israel. Sure, Israel were heavily provoked, but the Gazan body count is nonetheless staggering and it's now clear (as most of us thought in the beginning) that Israel's aim is to annihilate the innocents as an easy consequence to eradicating Hamas.

Whichever way you look at it, it does seem to me to amount to little less than genocide and I do wonder how this can sit with consciences given the events of nearly 80 years ago.

At least Putin is taking at least slightly more care of human lives, although I am personally convinced of the big Israeli benefit of land to spread into once the job is done. It's just got to be a factor in their thinking given their infringement on Gazan territory over a great many years.

It seems if a country has economic worth and is an ally to the West then they get supported despite their acts. Given the "anti semetic" ace card that somehow seems to be played despite religion and race being completely irrelevant, I guess they have become a difficult country to criticise

I have to admit I'm a bit angry and cynical as goes it all there right now, and if I see the injustice in it God alone knows the level of resentment this might be likely to release in countries like Iran, for example.

Getting off the politics and ethics (apologies), as I've stated a few times on here over the last year or so, the world just has too many people in it now, and I feel this to be the biggest threat to the investment world right now. No room to for countries to breathe or flourish as in the past and conflicts becoming more likely..

We couldould be that the golden days are in fact over

LLL, I just came on here to reply exactly the same thing. I feel sympathy for the plight of Gazans as Israel would obviously love to "cleanse" the strip of them on both a confrontational, security and economic front (and of course it seems if we are all honest that this is what is happening).

I would have preferred rather than strike back at Houthi targets if the West had brought sanctions against Israel as concerns their wholesale.

The consequences of this I worry is that the understandable sympathies for Gaza in the middle east may help the fans flame. Fingers crossed for both the Gazan people and economic fortunes that this doesn't go awry.

interesting re amar bhide, but i'm surprised an investment amounting to 40k or so chiseled down by obvious & endemic factors would get someone sour enough to kick off in the fashion he did given his likely level of renumeration within the trust.

i think we will never know, although i guess it might have added to his attitude i suppose.

either way, it didn't help the share price much given the way the media immediately pounced on it and publicised it so negatively (no doubt fueled by the resentful bhide himself).

fairly unprofessional i might suggest. hopefully the door smacked him on the **** in his way out :)

LLL. As you say it's impossible to assess someone's worth by their presentation. An actor may appear a likeable person, only to be a less pleasant personality in real life (or vice versa). We are not privvy to his working ability or qualities beyond those we perceive from his public presentation.

Autistic people (for example, we are all autistic to at least a very small degree), come across as often withdrawn, shy, unintelligent, lacking vibrancy... I could go on).. Think Albert Einstein for one of hundreds of examples. I could go on.

Its just not straightforward or scientific in any way to infer it worthy of assessment.

Points fair enough Tambo12, but how was Slater supposed to create stellar results in the market conditions he inherited. Sure the trust did worse than other similar one, but haven't we discussed those here over the years to exhaustion?

300 was touted by a few on here during the worst periods of fall, but I always ignored that possibility on the basis of my own assessment.

Was I correct? Well, I have been up to date and was I to believe that was possible anytime soon Id be selling.

I'm not because SMT is actually enjoying better popularity than any of my other holdings today (plus has risen more on average since around a month ago).

As stated, each to their own.

If you feel it's a buggered investment with the propensity to belly flop at any time I'm interested why you are not cutting your losses and selling now rather than waiting for £8.10?

What gives you the faith you think it will get to £8.10 rather than £9 (for example)? Over the last 40 years I have always sold at a point of lack of faith and got the cash into something I consider a better short term bet. It has always been the correct decision so I'm interested as to your reasoning.

Quid pro quo re the questions...

Apologies Tambo12. I didn't answer all your questions. As stated before I viewed (and it's a personal view) £6.50 as the absolute pits SP for SMT. I'm judging that only on it being the absolute lowest reached point over the last 2 years. You then look at the discount to nav at circa 20% for both those periods.

As stated, I believe the "extra risk" associated with unlisted acquisitions (which have created a lot of the fear surrounding SMT) to be offset against at least one of two potentially going big before anyone else gets wise and the SP rockets. This is actually SMTs mo and I'm sticking with that. Sure it's made it riskier than it once was at 30%, but no pain no gain & it's relative.

Definitely worthwhile in my mind to invest money you could potentially lose, although I personally believe the "risk" label over applied.

Even the 30% unlisted are all companies carefully chosen for their durability and potential, all with big collateral & financial parachutes...

Given that I did buy more at around £6.60, but not as much as I would have liked. At the current SP I'll sit and wait, although had I a bunch of extra cash I'd consider right now even at £7.50.

I do feel a little perplexed as goes the differing opinions of it on this forum as all I see are the obvious factors that are depressing it right now.

If it rains it's because of the weather, but there seems to be a lot of nit picking around SMT the minute it takes a plunge... PCT, for example, is an eminently respected and managed fund that has performed worse since the new year (as have many others for the same geo political and inflationary fear reasons), but somehow bad times for SMT always boil down to mismanagement? I'm not buying that but each to their own.

Hi Tambo12. I actually like the degree of unlisted risk that seems to worry so many. As goes where I see it in 2025, I would simply say that on the balance of probability and given more settled conditions (stable interest rates for a starter) I would like to think of a steady incline in value (where exactly I'm not sure).

The investments within the portfolio are certainly not fud ones and investment in technology eventually turns out saleable ideas and goods. Any threat of high interest obviously scares off the short termers invested in it as a great proportion of investors want returns stat.

We aren't about to stop coming up with ideas both as new ones or solutions to problems.

I agree times are no longer premium for these kinds of investments, but do believe they will continue to make money.

Nothing has changed in my mind to suggest otherwise but I always boil stuff down to simplistic presiding factors.

I wouldn't have money in SMT I couldn't afford to lose, but then that's been my lifelong investment mantra.

Of course I can never say I won't press the eject button, but nothing that has happened in the last 30 years has encouraged me to do so with SMT. Sure, I wish I'd pulled at least half around Nov 21, but didn't have the crystal ball so stuck to my guns. I'd be disappointed if staying invested still didn't leave me miles above my initial investments even at the low point of 6.50.

It became so unrealistically frothy before Nov 21 (the SP) that in all consideration my losses were not realistically as great anyway.

That's my take and I'm sticking.

Just noted the expected upturn. Let's hope fears settle more. They always do. At some point.

As above, meant to say (re spooky) that SMT isn't a short term gain type of investment. We all know this (and I do understand that loads of people have lost buckets getting in fairly recently), but it does take some bravado and a certain slant towards the attitude of sitting on hands.

If it's not for you then it's not for you.

Mr Americano. It's not about the NASDAQ but the NASDAQ is an indisputable marker of confidence.

Have a little peak at the performance of other well reputed trusts such as pct and att over the last month. Can you discern any great difference?

You're correct about the world situation as goes geo politics and these ever increasing events will lead to a dampness in investment. If this is a worry then I'd suggest not investing in concerns likely to be effected greatly by this. I would also strongly advise anyone investing in SMT for a short period only to withdraw when things get spooky (easy as it is for me to say that given how SMT has rewarded me over the years).. Don't get me wrong, I've lost in the past but never bemoaned it as that's the way the cookie crumbles.

We still have some way to go down before a return to the low of 6.5.

I'd say come back and comment in a couple of years.

SMT has suffered volatility over the past 2 years odd now, but to single them out after 1 week of activity (especially given they have performed no worse than well respected other funds skirting similar territory) seems slightly harsh.

Funny how opinions swing in so little time here.

It's investing. There is no crystal ball and what seems catastrophic one week can turn completely the next.

Ps. I have no overlying concerns as to the management of SMT. Others may well do so. If so buy out..