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Apologies. As always on here I either lose a comment completely down to pressing a back button (or similar)or end up posting too early, but I think my last post makes sense.. Wish there was an app for this... Maybe there is???
Anyway. Hope this is generally accessible:
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/fund-spotlight-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust-ii529881#:~:text=Scottish%20Mortgage%20biases%20strongly%20towards,on%20the%20market%20discount%20rate.
cp. agreed. i made the mistake of not selling at least some at smts height nov 21 that dictated that i had to continue working rather than drawer down on losing stocks.
i made the decision based upon the main causation for losses was inflation and that inflation cannot remain at high levels forever.
its a very loose belief, but if i was levered into making a valuation of smt in 3 years time, i wouldn't put £11 out of the window.. i can't quantify that really, but it's a very real possibility for me as inflation tames.
none of this is inevitable of course and **** happens.
smt is as discussed for the long term amd i started holding shares (still unsold) at least 35 years ago. despite the massive fall from grace holding over this length of period i'm never likely to be in a median state of regret... despite the recent losses i'm up above year after year of inflation big time. i guess that speaks volumes about the attitude to investment in smt. buying in in the many months up to nov 21 (or even thereafter) being massively unfortunate, i know. i've bought further at a loss as no one knew when it would stop falling. as i have said a great many times (and thankfully been proven correct on it... a lot of luck i know.. £6.40 has (so far) appeared to be the very bottom based upon abject negativity and hyperinflatiin.
not sure everyone will be able to access it, but here is ii's current thoughts on smt.
Generally agreed with the 50/50 strategy as discussed if CP finds it an absolute no no to hang on given individual perspective and circumstances.
Having said that I firmly believe paradoxically the current point (or even at £8) being absolutely the worst probable time to sell. Of course, no one can say anything with certainty, and if certainty is necessary to ones strategy then certainty it should be..
If we can accept that the current leaps we are seeing (and far more positive opinion of the IT) is a long fully expected & natural consequence of world inflation getting under control, then the accumulating weight of that logic strongly dictates holding in my mind, but then that's my perspective.
I guess if CP has stated the need to cease any kind of shares based investing then that is his/her decision alone and I respect that.
I would however be happier to feel that all members discussing SMT here end up as rosy as possible. The major likelihood in my mind to SMTs future is positivity.
LLL. I agree that further world events will continue to add upsets for sure, especially in an overcrowded world with tensions where they generally are right now.
As ever I remain more optimistic however on the basis that I believe there to be a great many years to go before investing is an unprofitable enterprise.
I remain convinced that their is no better investment than our technological future.
I know that I must sound like a stuck record but believe that the median line will always increase proportionately to man's continuing ambitions and propensity for survival.
The only thing I'd add to that is to only buy into SMT if you have the spare cash in order to profit beyond the 5 year timeline (right now and obviously not 5 years ago).
I can't imagine drier powder in the current SMT investment magazine.
World events will continue to hamper things (I agree), but the COVID years were a frothy aberration prior to one hell of an inflationary bummer that has led us all (unfairly) to question the worth of it all. Ignore them and the median line creeps up and will continue to do so.
Things will go wrong, things will go right, but in the end (and for now at least) sensible and measured technological investment will bring returns..
I'm can't see that I'll be eating my hat, but may do eventually (but not just yet I feel).
The world is on fire but not (as yet) into negative feedback territory when things go backward.
Given the crocked up world, I fear for my children and grandchildren,but equally believe my investments will be worth far more to them in the future than they are now.
I'm absolutely with you Mr Nimrod. Sure it's been out of favour down to the recent obvious factors, but that ain't going to be static. It may take some time, but I firmly believe that the losses bemoaned upon down to the fallout due to the obviously frothy excesses ridden in the COVID years will reverse. Eventually..
It will come around as it always have.
We are not about to stop buying new ideas.
It just isn't the way humankind operates.
Against this, I do also believe in generally hardening conditions . The world has too many people right now, and whilst the accompanying problems we have seen of late will I believe necessitate new technological solutions, there will also be more strife and trauma that lead to a greater chance of continuing economic instability.
Despite all of that I believe in the natural gravity of man's will to overcome and develop, and for that reason I for one am going to leave my money on the table.
And then there is Suella Braverman LLL.. Words fail me as to the disgust I feel for the woman . Incompetent buffoons in general I agree, but this woman takes the absolute biscuit re Palestinian, homelessness and the poor souls risking everything to arrive in our democracy.... Anyone would think she couldn't possibly have a familial history of immigration to the UK herself. I thought Patel was the pits, but little did I realise that such a creature would follow in her steps ..
Words absolutely fail me and the woman makes me feel ashamed to be British...
Sorry...
Back to discussion around SMT I guess...
Agreed Mr Americano (although many disagree).
Before this we need to turn the sentiment corner which involves people seeing the currently economic world situation that delays profits in future ideas to be receding to the point that investment and returns become more near sighted.
Sensible technology investment will always succeed (on average) as it revolves every human aspiration.
After the constant stalling in the tech investment confidence stakes, I barely dare breathe it but do wonder whether we are on the cusp of recovery. I'm definitely sensing a renewed optimism.
Here's hoping another catastrophic and awful world event doesn't scupper it.
Having said that lot, my heart and wishes are with the poor Palestinian people at the moment and it feels wrong to wish for investment recovery whilst things are so awful for them right now.
Despicable act by Hamas, but more cynically (I feel) a fantastic fully Westernised endorsed further land grab opportunity for Israel?
Apologies for the politics above investing, but My Lord, doesn't political foresight and diverge with it?
LLL, yes, I do agree, just disagree with the severity of "very concerning" were all eggs to be placed in SMT. Tambo 210, also agreed, but as I've stated many times, I personally believe that SMT has seen its floor, even with the addition of the awful Israeli /Hamas fracas to the current set of woes working against investments in general.
Admittedly the world is getting an increasingly crowded place, which is stoking more and more of these world economy denting altercations, which I believe will have quite a powerfully detrimental effect on the ability of world economies to prosper quite so well as in the past.
That being said, Tom Slater recently said something (not verbatim here) in defence of SMT which I felt very apt and fair. He said that he admitted that recent outcomes had been bad for SMT, but despite the current unpopularity of the sectors invested in down to high inflation and other factors in the main, all invested companies (including the unlisted) were nonetheless not stood still and were still devising new useful ideas, products and services.
Well... He would, wouldn't he?
I personally believe his assertion is a very reasonable one, and imo my tech portfolio left as is (especially SMT) still provides the most likely chance of maximised returns in the medium to long term.
Had I some uninvested cash and not access to 5.2 % savings, however...
Whilst I rarely disagree with you LLL, and would suggest that 100% investment in SMT does carry risk I personally feel "very concerning" to be a tad over the top given the only evidenced factors that have realistically effected the SP history.
There are 36 differing investments within the portfolio, and a glimpse as goes the bulk of them is at least reasonably reassuring. Sure there is the 30% unlisted arguments, but those companies do appear to be rather robust and also companies seemingly well placed to ultimately come out of the current abject conditions smelling of roses.
Sure, a few may wither, and sure Moderna aren't looking as rosy as expected. A great deal of the low estimation imho is based upon pessimistic speculation.
That lot being said, I do entirely agree that at 100% anyone would be well advised to consider diversification..
I hold 25% SMT currently, which I know could conceivably argued too much, although I am comfortable with that risk wise as goes the corresponding upside. Sure there are possible.. long unevidenced) downturn possibilities as goes individual concerns, but I just feel far more assured of medium to long term gains than losses.
I guess it's all about individual risk perspective. I do agree 100% does carry risk, however, such type of all in investing perhaps meriting a more low risk approach despite the spread of nest eggs within.
Wildtiger, I'm not convinced on that basis you will be buying into SMT again, but it's always possible. Holding right now still strikes me as the most sensible option, but who knows who is right?
I guess as part of a larger portfolio strategy (win some/lose some) you could argue for this approach if you enjoy that kind of thing, have the time and more of a "daytrader" mentality. My strategy has always been to understand potential, buy well, hold, get on with life more than fret over gains and losses and (as discussed endlessly) make an assessment of gains and losses in relation to total time held (accepting that those buying in Nov 21 or thereabouts) were unfortunate.
The tide of current market conditions (exacerbated by inflation and recurringly depressing world events) will eventually turn, despite me being increasingly of the mind that the heady heights of the SP before high inflation/Ukraine etc will take a great many more years to attain.
I think it's still (by far) worthwhile holding, but could be proven wrong. If it all goes up again, when exactly do you buy back in, and at what stage (if it keeps going) do you kick yourself for a strategy that has lead to missed opportunity?
Each to their own, of course.
The way I see it is that there is bound to be resentment from some of us. It's natural, I guess.
The trouble for me with SMT (whether anyone agrees or not) that SMT was always top of the list as goes stellar performance prior to the drop, and became frothier than anything because of it.
I blame that (at least in part) for the drop in SP to date, simply down to the larger numbers joining the bandwagon when it represented easy money (which of course then equated to the reflected loss in value when everyone buggered off.
Despite the comments I have empathy to those who have lost out at a time that they cannot afford to. We all live and learn.
Badprophet, it's called investment risk. The only reason people are feeling sore is that they expected the most stellar collective performer out there to keep going up even when inflation gravity alone pulls it down (because that's all that's at play).
Sure, there's the as yet unfounded risk of the unlisted concerns, but everyone had the choice to either sell or not buy when the strategy went that way.
We've (a lot of us) lost a lot of money here so far, but far better to understand why and own it as our own investment decision. Despite losing over £200k from all of my investment concerns since the frothy peak of Nov 21, I still hold and am philosophical.
AquarianAge. Times move on, people move on, strategies change.
In the current market conditions which are primarily and obviously to blame for the general demise in SMT, I see the blame game as a bit like a pub goer having 12 pints and a pork pie and blaming the pork pie for feeling rough afterwards.
Sure there are those who see Anderson as having the Midas Touch and who will say he left because he knew it was all going to go belly up (rats/sinking ships etc), but people do move on in life and it was his right to do so.
Sure SMT has done a little worse than other similar investment instruments to this point but a lot of this I feel is down to persistent negativity as concerns strategies as yet to be found wanting.
Sure buying into the unlisted has effected sentiment to buy into SMT, much of which probably comes down to individual perception and ability to absorb risk.
I for one am good with it and personally predict once a slide commences back into the black that SMT will likely over perform the current lesser losers .
Shall we just see?
I posted in on Mnks? Do you mean Monks Investment Trust Oogleflugal? If you mean that I can see it here amongst the discussion for SMT?
Im respectful if your distrust for ITs, despite not really understanding why. They are simply a collection of different companies that I would trust investment experts to compile a lot more than myself. I can see no conceivable negativity in them apart from the oft sector bias they contain & the glaring failure of the past three years effecting the best of them is to the greater degree the currently high global inflationary rates that stretches out the payday for them.
A great deal of reason for the current SP you see (in SMT for example) therefore reflects the fact that those riding the pre inflationary (frothy) tidal wave of a consistent low inflationary winner have buggered off as they know it won't make money for them in the shorter term.
I know if I hold on it's more likely than anything else right now to do so given time (having just philosophically "lost" a great deal of money since the peak). I have held SMT since around 1995 and as ever continue to ride it throughout the market conditions (good and bad).
That's why I'm holding, but full respect to your opinion.
Oogleflugal, why?
SMT were the obvious choice for everyone to pile into pre November '21 and that to my mind explains why they have performed worse than other similar less obvious trusts out there. All these kind of investments have suffered, and beyond questioning the practice of acquiring unlisted investments they really haven't done anything questionable that I can think of?
Unlisted acquisitions certainly are slightly riskier for the shareholder, but having said that the "risk" fits in well with SMTs overt strategy of identifying future winners before values become overinflated in order to maximise returns. They only select extremely large and solid unlisted concerns unlikely to fail and I for one accept that risk as worthwhile.
Most investors are looking for more immediate returns which along with all of the above reduces the individual popularity right now of SMT.
I do understand the shock felt by investors who bought at much higher prices than right now, but please understand that had inflation remained at 2% post Nov 2021 you wouldn't be viewing SMT personnel as particularly incompetent right at the moment.
Just got non ISA Santander saver at 5.08 fixed for one year but easy access. Not too shoddy considering inflation looks downward.
May even pay out above inflation after a year if the sun's and moons align..
Tambo210 and Tom78, if it's the worst ever and the managers should be held to account, what should they be held to account for?
Isn't the disparity down to a simple reflection of sentiment versus value? There's been a fair bit of discussion about this on here in the past, and whilst the difference does reflect the perception of risk as goes an increase in the percentile of unlisted companies it actually gives me more confidence that the only way is up.
I base this in the fact that the SP has already been depressed (and over depressed I feel) and so the SP damage has already been done.
The nav may go down eventually or it may remain static.. it will even go up if any of those unlisted companies go pop in the meantime .. i
Not sure exactly, but it certainly appears well over a year at around 20% and I hear no pop (confirmed by a nav that hasn't worsened)...
I don't feel it's a biggie, but do understand the concern.
I meant to finish; We are all here united by the fact that we hold SMT and have made a monetary loss of some level of another since the peak. It's heartbreaking when you buy into something that you rightfully research as a good investment and you see only loss, but this happens to the very best of investors.
At least you were drip feeding CP, which has reduced your losses.
If I were you and feeling bad about it I'd get my calculator out, go through your buying history and work out exactly your losses to today. Given you may well have bought quite a lot at a good price, your losses will probably not be as high as the difference between the £15.28 peak and the current price? On that basis I would be surprised (all things being good and fairly predictable) if you didn't go into profit in quite a bit less than 5 years... Why don't you try doing some illustrations if you are holding?
I have never drip fed and actually "lost" nearly £58,000 in SMT alone since the £15.28 height. I also lost about this much (as I held more but they didn't fall as badly) in both PCT and ATT. In all of my portfolio I "lost" over £200,000.
Despite this I have currently (after all those years of investing) made more than I have "lost" (even accounting for inflation), but that is purely because I bought over 20 years ago and held or added when able come what may.
I understand the resentment you feel (I really do), but feel it would be more useful to consider all of your investments history (as I have done in my personal illustration above) and not just underline the loss you have made here.
It could be that you have only made losses since beginning which does happen to one hell of a lot of investors, but despite this being tough luck it is a face of the dice that we all have to accept before we shake and roll.
You didn't do anything wrong and didn't buy into something worthless, you just completely unknowingly bought at the wrong time. This stuff happens and all there is to do is to pick yourself up, dust yourself off and plough on with positivity.
As I've said before a few times, I absolutely implore you to hold onto your investment in SMT because it would (imho) be a backwards mistake to sell at a point that SMT is at its lowest apparent point whilst also at a point of a fair bit of kinetic energy (my opinion) down to improving inflation and sentiment... Having said that, if it causes you to spend a proportion of your life in distrust of SMT & occasional bitter regret then I implore you sell it and buy something that you feel confident will perform adequately within the confines of the extent of risk you wish to take with it.
In my mind and right at this very moment there is probably about 10% of short term doubt as concerns SMT, 60% short term positivity an 90-100% long term positivity in SMT.
Your losses weren't your fault, they weren't SMTs fault and they weren't anybody else's fault. It's just one of those.
I would as usual advise a hold given the strong likelihood in my mind that you will recuperate your losses before too long, but whatever you do do not impede the quality of your life by hanging onto it if that's what's happening. I say that in full understanding and sympathy with your situation.
We are all here united in monetary loss down to the perf