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I note HL have a buy and sell price (always higher) which at first glance looks a rip too?
Am I wrong on this?
Was with Barclays prior to them joining costs and destroying what was a great service prior to "Smartinvestor" (which struck me more of a "BetFred" type of service by comparison designed to make money from small time investors) ...
Just my perspective at the time, and swapping over was a nightmare that they effect up every inch of the way...
I couldn't have put it better myself, Fela.
I guess beyond that thought it boils down to individual perspective as to the need to have optimal guarantees or to work hard at maximising outcomes or not.
For me it will be about just skimming sums off for this and that, meaning I will need to identify advantageous selling points (hence my regret now not cashing a bit in when the froth was at its peak).
You live and learn...
Ok.
Well mine is a different less cautious view because as stated before I view tech as having a built in edge. I currently hold around 22% SMT, 30% pct, 35% att and a small punt in various companies I currently view as robust Inc Astrazenaca. Collectively this amounts to a great many individual companies and a number of management teams all trying to engender success.
I'm thinking many will marvel at the lack of diversification although I personally believe in buying well and simply holding. I've currently lost over a quarter of my holdings value from its peak in Nov 22, but take it all back just 4 years and I'm very well placed.
I saw the froth but simply held (I do now regret not reducing as soon as the slide started but it quickly felt too late and I try to be think logically and less emotionally these days).
I'm a pretty immaterial type of person (the best things in life really are cheap or even free) and will survive well enough on my modest pensions. Hopefully there will be a chunk of this left to pass on..
Ast stated before man is not going to just give up on bettering his lot or seeking answers to increasing world problems.
Tech (in my mind) will never lose the propensity to prosper despite temporary aberrations that put it out of sentiment.
That's my take on it and I don't think it's a bad one.
I already have a nursing pension thay will support me from next year and sleep well at night.
2 years, 3 years, 5 years. Whichever suits me fine, but as stated I'd rather cut a foot off than sell any now.
Many people may not have the luxury of waiting for that kind of maturity which of course can be a factor in choosing to ditch and invest in something that is considered more profitable in shorter term.
I do however consider 600p to be the floor as far as SMT goes and can see zero froth in that valuation.
On that basis I find it hard to think of much anything else at the mo that could match the potential, and the time frame (whatever) seems to me well worth holding out for.
That's my personal view but it could be wrong and time will tell..
Totally missed Felas earlier comment as was on the hop (apologies);
""Equally though, I won't be selling, as I suspect there'll be better opportunities to reduce/exit within the next 4 to 5 years." (LLL)
This is hardly a ringing endorsement of the trust. If I had that view I'd sell immediately. (Fela)"
Ok. I see ..
It is what it is Fela, and SMT have suffered badly resultant from the aspects discussed ad infinitum...
Remove those aspects and it seems logical to me that smt is very likely to ascend given time despite recent poor performance.
No ringing endorsement needed to hold on tight in my assessment. It's a fluid situation and today's dog meat can be tomorrow's fine dining.
But if someone wants out, I'm with your earlier comment that they should sell for fairer horizons rather than holding on grimly in order to recuperate current losses.
Frogster, I'm 100% with LLL.. Fela has also admitted he sees a similar scenario..
I'm not being contentious and am only backing up an important and useful premise, which is to sell and reinvest immediately when you become convinced there's nothing to gain..
Waiting in the hope you'll get your money back makes no sense when investments elsewhere (in your opinion) offer a greater return.
We have to respect autonomy.
I'll put it another way.
Had CP sold a month or so ago (when I recall there being a little peak before the last dip we have passed through, be would have hopefully reinvested in something then observing the money he saved from SMT hitting a dip.. of course it is all relative and dependant on his timeframe and strategy..
We can't know this fully, only he can and he has bedn negative about its future for ages now
Had he sold in that dip he could conceivably made more money.
It's all down to personal opinion, strategy & beliefs and a horse can be led to water but he may not fancy drinking it (and who the hell knows... He may well be right)!
Frogster, yes.. I totally agree with holding onto it for any time period and I personally believe the upwards climb will begin before even this time (LLL) thinks longer, but who knows?
We have all discussed this aspect (that of SMT making money in a few years time rather than now) on countless occasions in the company of both Fela and CP.
CP knows all of these opinions implicitly but still downgrades his ability to even make his money back in any time period (indeed plans to eject as soon as he gets his money back which I'm not sure will be too long).
This is exactly why Fela has made his comment.
It makes no sense and for sleepless nights to go against your obvious convictions despite having heard varied and wide opinion to the contrary.
Reinvest immediately somewhere where your convictions truly lie ..
It's often hard to do but we are all masters of our own ships and have to follow our convictions.
Just to reiterate my intention is the same as most on here .. hold for the next few years and possibly forever, but we are all grown up independent investors here.
Couple that with the folly of holding onto a lame duck when there other profitable investments your money can better work in (in your opinion), then you should do so as you are otherwise investing against your own convictions.
We have all urged CP to hang on in there but he clearly doesn't accept that reasoning, and why should he?
We aren't here to invest against our own convictions just because a bunch of strangers tell us that would be the wrong thing.
I have to defend Fela here. He is simply stating the obvious fact that if you engage in investing you do so based upon your own research and considerations. If you personally conclude that something you hold is a flop and doubt it's recovery, then the sensible thing is to run with the courage of your convictions and sell.
Captain Picard is an autonomous investor and had clearly stated repeatedly his disappointment in SMT and his doubts that it will even return to the value at the point that he invested.
On that basis of conviction why hold something you think a lame duck when there are in all likelihood investments he will consider better.
Just because most of us commenting here believe SMT will make money over any period of time at all doesn't mean we are right..
I would personally rather cut off my foot than sell right now, but investing is an autonomous activity and keeping lame ducks makes no sense at all.
Much as it hurts, if convinced anything is going down the pan it is illogical to hold onto it in the hope (that CP clearly doubts) that it will be some miracle confound his personal beliefs and go beyond his expectations.
I have found in the past that doing so is complete folly when you can be making money (in your own opinion) elsewhere.
Hope that makes sense.
That is an interesting perspective, Beachouse. SMT could go up in the next year, it could go down, or it could keep in nudging up and down.
I believe however we have seen enough of the nudging up and down behaviour triggers to satisfy myself that the core of the issue is all essentially down to high inflationary fears versus inflationary recovery hopes...
I'm satisfied enough on this to hold on despite the
nav discount worries and the speculation that SMT management went rotten the second Anderson stepped out over the threshold.
With that in mind, I might well have been one of the people buying from Captain Picard had I the spare funds and hadn't simply remained invested in SMT for a great many years.
Having said that even if I had more to invest I don't think I'd buy more as it stands, but if I had no SMT I'd defo opt for a punt...
It doesn't mean my perspective is right though...
I'm with Fela on this also Captain Picard, as it's all a game of personal perspectives and following one's own assessment.
If you think that this trust will never prosper then you should really sell up and put it into something that you believe will do better.
I'm with you that there's no point flogging a dead donkey, but if you do believe this IT to be a lost cause and that it will struggle to proceed in the UP direction then it make more sense to sell now and put it in something that you consider having a better chance at giving you returns in the future.
Never hold onto a lame duck in the hope of getting your money back.
The question is however; is SMT actually a lame duck, or (despite its unpopularity at the mo) does it have the propensity to make money as the market conditions depressing it's individual components improve?
I personally have as much faith in this as you have doubt, but as stated... We all have our individual perspectives and limits and should absolutely act on them.
I wish you luck whichever way you go :)
Slightly less hawkish stance from the fed yesterday suggesting that the US is nearly in control (but not quite with the possibility of a further small hike or two) suggesting slightly greater positivity than expected.
A possible light rebound from Monday, perhaps???
Fed determination to arrive back at 2% inflation certainly reassures me more than the BoE success.. I think a large part of the problem in bringing world inflation down could be the likely depression in spending and consequent increase in accumulated wealth during COVID restrictions?
In my mind all can only come together in time as rates reach the correct level & people's wealth and credit availability subsequently diminishes.
It's a waiting game for sure, but I view eventual positivity as natural and inevitable a force as gravity.
We still have some time to go in the tunnel.
Yesterday's slump was largely down to decreased in large tech fund values dropping (eg Amazon). Observing also a subtle shift in the US news, I'm thinking it is quite likely the fed will lift interest rates at 3pm today rather than the previous positivity they would freeze. That's going to be way after the lse shuts but if that's felt likely today then we are likely to slide a bit more towards the end of today and certainly tomorrow.
More negativity ahead for a couple of days in all likelihood if that happens I suppose...
A note to purists..
I use the Nasdaq as a general marker to all of my (even loosely) tech orientated investments as I find it gives me a generalistic yet simple and reliable pointer as to sentiment.
Each to their own, of course :)
Just a guess but given the Fed speech tomorrow marking what was deemed likely a freezing of interest rates, I'd make a wild guess that there's some insider info out there that now suggests another rate hike to gain a firmer yet grip on the US economy. There's nothing else going on I can ascertain immediately.
Given that we aren't in the privileged position to day trade, I guess it's the same old reaction that will in all positively lead to a rebound once the dust settles and reason returns.
I guess at least we are moving further towards the end even though we could still be in the middle.
I'm not panicking and am still as far down on the chart as possible in terms of selling.
Just trying to find out. Nasdaq as a whole has tanked so probably same old volatility of sentiment.
Fed news still dictates positivity..
I guess we will have a better idea later, but as is often the case SMT is faring worse than similar trusts...
I would agree there's a huge bubble risk with AI. Dot com comes slightly to mind, although I personally feel that it's on a micro scale to that.
The potential is still there to boost wave of positivity and expectant investment that later gets withdrawn.
I also agree that fragments of SMT doing well is great, but that the problem at the moment reflects more the peculiarities surrounding SMT that have created the apparent drag in sentiment we have witnessed over the last year and beyond.
Have I missed something?
SMT appears to have ended it's lse run today close to it's daily high point and I'd expect general tech positivity shown in the US up to nyse close a short while ago to drive them further tomorrow (excepting any new negativity arising inbetween as is often the case)?
I will accept that they haven't performed quite as well as my other similar tech based trusts, but still believe previously discussed issues around SMT are unfairly levelling undue caution (which I think is reflected in the continuingly high discount to nav).
Much has been discussed around this however, and opinions of the significance of it are if course a little split..
I still think SMT will have its day.