Member Info for Walp

Tambo12, I'd say that's the kind of belief behind every fund manager. Funny how on here the critique only comes when the dog is down.

It's called investing.

My oerspective is my own.

I've invested in this trust for the last 30 years or so and have done extremely well.. that's through the 2000 crash and other failures in fortune also.

I know (stuck record returns) that the latest falls have again been effected by interest rate renewed fears, colder feet re Gaza, Ukraine and other issues that (of course) have a downward effect on generalized sentiment towards a great many tech connected concerns.. Looking right now (today) pct are down 1.65% whilst SMT are 1.51%. The Nasdaq has dropped massively over it's gains since the new year because of these fears which tells us what?

It tells us the swathe of tech investment industry and loosely related same is in disfavour.

Singling out SMT is silly.

It's endemic.

Seems everyone is fixated on SMT and not everything else going on and other similar concerns. Look at ATT, PCT and a bunch of others. Same if not worse.

Again (and I repeat) it's a sentiment reflection based on current fears and worries based upon where we are now.

I'm not sure SMT is for a great many investors contributing here, tbh :(

I just see it as a natural occurrence. Inflation taming. Profitability window closer. Both short and long term speculators seeing a return to favourable conditions. A sustained cessation of volatility. Sentiment returning to that of a profitable window. This was always by far most likely to happen as every strain of world economy and every government wants a low inflation society. Add that to the fact that man will never stop wanting (and paying well for) new ideas and solutions.

Of course we could go back with a new world issue or catastrophe (economic or political, and we live in a crowded world now where the odds of this are increasing all the time), but we will in time again move forward.

Simplistic, but as ever this stuck record stands by it.

LLL . Absolute agreement to your final point. Think and buy well. Hold.

Buying and selling has costs attached to it and most often (in my experience) ends up with me kicking my own butt. It is after all knife catching and can be a bit disappointing when the purchased element underperforms the sold out one.

Imho (based upon my assessment of a most likely future), this will be Mr Americano's sum experience over the next 12 months and beyond as goes his decision, but as stated life is not about making money but being happy.

If holding SMT causes anyone sleepless nights I'd have no hesitation advising them to sell up asap.

I'm very much an each to their own type of person and do feel that Mr Americano's 30% might seem too much for a great deal of people. Having said that we're 10% "practically guaranteed" in the game of investment then I feel leant towards saying that interest paying savings accounts would likely become a dinosaur of the past. Who would bother with them given such a gold plated return?

If Mr Americano's decision allows him better sleep at night then so be it. If it were me I would have perhaps balanced the decision at maybe a retain half approach. I currently hold 25% of my portfolio in SMT and would be loathe at this point to sell any. I did buy into Fundsmith by selling some PCT which I felt too entrenched solely in companies constantly targeted as having unfair monopolies plus too exposed to China (possible overeaction on my part), but am glad I did so as I feel it has leant a greater safety to my portfolio by doing so.

As inflation is dropping I'm just heading into the black as goes that investment (thanks for the advice from all here on that one).

As for SMT, my somewhat conservative belief is that it will likely go some way beyond 10% from today to 30th November 2024 (predicted therefore at around £8 minimum), but who knows to what extent the next big world event will scupper anyone's predictions?

I guess we will see, but everyone is going to have their individual strategies and perception of risk and so each to their own.

Certainly trust no newspaper, or any of the investment media in my mind. I'd say the most obvious markers are written big on the wall, but sentiment is still muted. I'd just look at what we know to be going on with this type of investment at the moment and the likelihood of travel direction. You then have to add in your assessment of risk. I'd never thought of SMT as a particularly risky investment despite it's volatility (which makes it a long termer unless you feel convinced it's at its low). Plenty of burned fingers for those who thought this, so caution is required.

I'd buy more if I had the cash spare, but that's me and if I then lost money in the immediate term I'd look back on my 30 years of investing, shrug my shoulders and wait for the upside.

That's how I've always done things but beyond thinking hard as to my purchases initially & spreading risk I've never actually developed a strategy beyond a few basics you could scribble on the back of an envelope :)

I am also massively cynical as to the investments media. There's a lot of money made for financial institutions in encouraging buy/sell mentality simply on the basis of trading costs.

Bearing that in mind is helpful as my experience has been that it is rarely panic stations just because the headlines state so.

There is usually a rebound as the threshold of "looks cheap" is crossed and the sharks move in. As stated... Research well. Buy well. Hold.

I've mentioned luck, but don't wish to mislead.

Buying well is the key, but then "luck" dictates the ride.

The example of PCT outperforming SMT is an example here.

Despite "luck" (as in crystal balls) being a factor, buying intelligently and well (plus matching your investments to timeframes in which they might seem more likely to provide decent returns) shapes your chances of ultimately succeeding.

That's how it's turned out for me anyway.

I don't necessarily disagree with selling if a stock or interest is underperforming, Andy, but I always try to quantify the reasons.

I sold no SMT during the fall from Nov 21 because I could see no reason to do so. I knew the economic reasons why it was falling out of favour and considered it unbelievably cheap as it was shunned and shunned.

Had I had the old crystal ball I'd have sold the lot at £16 and held cash until it hit £6.40, then reinvested the lot.

Instead I kept to my old and trusted tactic of doing nothing as there is absolutely no way you can know What is going to happen.

I find it incredible that SMT fell so far, but believe that it will reciprocate with a similarly impressive recovery.

9 times out of 10 when I have sold something that I believe to be inherently good I have regretted it. Catching knives can lose you fingers.

When the flock rushes for the door the best thing to do is sit on your hands.

Andy, it's all luck... Do you know I flogged loads of PCT to buy more SMT because it was performing so well pre Nov 21? There was no great thought behind it but I don't regret it as a bad decision, because it just wasn't. I had no idea PCT would outperform SMT, but I really do believe that SMT could well start to outperform PCT now.

I consider them both future winners, however.

You take your losses and you take your gains, but as long as you are up beyond the decay of cumulative inflation over the years you've done well.

I view it as a long old game in which you buy well and ignore the panic.

It's done well for me cummulatively despite some hideous nose dives (which I have philosophically tried to ignore).

Apologies. As always on here I either lose a comment completely down to pressing a back button (or similar)or end up posting too early, but I think my last post makes sense.. Wish there was an app for this... Maybe there is???

Anyway. Hope this is generally accessible:

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/fund-spotlight-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust-ii529881#:~:text=Scottish%20Mortgage%20biases%20strongly%20towards,on%20the%20market%20discount%20rate.

cp. agreed. i made the mistake of not selling at least some at smts height nov 21 that dictated that i had to continue working rather than drawer down on losing stocks.

i made the decision based upon the main causation for losses was inflation and that inflation cannot remain at high levels forever.

its a very loose belief, but if i was levered into making a valuation of smt in 3 years time, i wouldn't put £11 out of the window.. i can't quantify that really, but it's a very real possibility for me as inflation tames.

none of this is inevitable of course and **** happens.

smt is as discussed for the long term amd i started holding shares (still unsold) at least 35 years ago. despite the massive fall from grace holding over this length of period i'm never likely to be in a median state of regret... despite the recent losses i'm up above year after year of inflation big time. i guess that speaks volumes about the attitude to investment in smt. buying in in the many months up to nov 21 (or even thereafter) being massively unfortunate, i know. i've bought further at a loss as no one knew when it would stop falling. as i have said a great many times (and thankfully been proven correct on it... a lot of luck i know.. £6.40 has (so far) appeared to be the very bottom based upon abject negativity and hyperinflatiin.

not sure everyone will be able to access it, but here is ii's current thoughts on smt.

Generally agreed with the 50/50 strategy as discussed if CP finds it an absolute no no to hang on given individual perspective and circumstances.

Having said that I firmly believe paradoxically the current point (or even at £8) being absolutely the worst probable time to sell. Of course, no one can say anything with certainty, and if certainty is necessary to ones strategy then certainty it should be..

If we can accept that the current leaps we are seeing (and far more positive opinion of the IT) is a long fully expected & natural consequence of world inflation getting under control, then the accumulating weight of that logic strongly dictates holding in my mind, but then that's my perspective.

I guess if CP has stated the need to cease any kind of shares based investing then that is his/her decision alone and I respect that.

I would however be happier to feel that all members discussing SMT here end up as rosy as possible. The major likelihood in my mind to SMTs future is positivity.

LLL. I agree that further world events will continue to add upsets for sure, especially in an overcrowded world with tensions where they generally are right now.

As ever I remain more optimistic however on the basis that I believe there to be a great many years to go before investing is an unprofitable enterprise.

I remain convinced that their is no better investment than our technological future.

I know that I must sound like a stuck record but believe that the median line will always increase proportionately to man's continuing ambitions and propensity for survival.

The only thing I'd add to that is to only buy into SMT if you have the spare cash in order to profit beyond the 5 year timeline (right now and obviously not 5 years ago).

I can't imagine drier powder in the current SMT investment magazine.

World events will continue to hamper things (I agree), but the COVID years were a frothy aberration prior to one hell of an inflationary bummer that has led us all (unfairly) to question the worth of it all. Ignore them and the median line creeps up and will continue to do so.

Things will go wrong, things will go right, but in the end (and for now at least) sensible and measured technological investment will bring returns..

I'm can't see that I'll be eating my hat, but may do eventually (but not just yet I feel).

The world is on fire but not (as yet) into negative feedback territory when things go backward.

Given the crocked up world, I fear for my children and grandchildren,but equally believe my investments will be worth far more to them in the future than they are now.

I'm absolutely with you Mr Nimrod. Sure it's been out of favour down to the recent obvious factors, but that ain't going to be static. It may take some time, but I firmly believe that the losses bemoaned upon down to the fallout due to the obviously frothy excesses ridden in the COVID years will reverse. Eventually..

It will come around as it always have.

We are not about to stop buying new ideas.

It just isn't the way humankind operates.

Against this, I do also believe in generally hardening conditions . The world has too many people right now, and whilst the accompanying problems we have seen of late will I believe necessitate new technological solutions, there will also be more strife and trauma that lead to a greater chance of continuing economic instability.

Despite all of that I believe in the natural gravity of man's will to overcome and develop, and for that reason I for one am going to leave my money on the table.

And then there is Suella Braverman LLL.. Words fail me as to the disgust I feel for the woman . Incompetent buffoons in general I agree, but this woman takes the absolute biscuit re Palestinian, homelessness and the poor souls risking everything to arrive in our democracy.... Anyone would think she couldn't possibly have a familial history of immigration to the UK herself. I thought Patel was the pits, but little did I realise that such a creature would follow in her steps ..

Words absolutely fail me and the woman makes me feel ashamed to be British...

Sorry...

Back to discussion around SMT I guess...

Agreed Mr Americano (although many disagree).

Before this we need to turn the sentiment corner which involves people seeing the currently economic world situation that delays profits in future ideas to be receding to the point that investment and returns become more near sighted.

Sensible technology investment will always succeed (on average) as it revolves every human aspiration.

After the constant stalling in the tech investment confidence stakes, I barely dare breathe it but do wonder whether we are on the cusp of recovery. I'm definitely sensing a renewed optimism.

Here's hoping another catastrophic and awful world event doesn't scupper it.

Having said that lot, my heart and wishes are with the poor Palestinian people at the moment and it feels wrong to wish for investment recovery whilst things are so awful for them right now.

Despicable act by Hamas, but more cynically (I feel) a fantastic fully Westernised endorsed further land grab opportunity for Israel?

Apologies for the politics above investing, but My Lord, doesn't political foresight and diverge with it?

LLL, yes, I do agree, just disagree with the severity of "very concerning" were all eggs to be placed in SMT. Tambo 210, also agreed, but as I've stated many times, I personally believe that SMT has seen its floor, even with the addition of the awful Israeli /Hamas fracas to the current set of woes working against investments in general.

Admittedly the world is getting an increasingly crowded place, which is stoking more and more of these world economy denting altercations, which I believe will have quite a powerfully detrimental effect on the ability of world economies to prosper quite so well as in the past.

That being said, Tom Slater recently said something (not verbatim here) in defence of SMT which I felt very apt and fair. He said that he admitted that recent outcomes had been bad for SMT, but despite the current unpopularity of the sectors invested in down to high inflation and other factors in the main, all invested companies (including the unlisted) were nonetheless not stood still and were still devising new useful ideas, products and services.

Well... He would, wouldn't he?

I personally believe his assertion is a very reasonable one, and imo my tech portfolio left as is (especially SMT) still provides the most likely chance of maximised returns in the medium to long term.

Had I some uninvested cash and not access to 5.2 % savings, however...

Whilst I rarely disagree with you LLL, and would suggest that 100% investment in SMT does carry risk I personally feel "very concerning" to be a tad over the top given the only evidenced factors that have realistically effected the SP history.

There are 36 differing investments within the portfolio, and a glimpse as goes the bulk of them is at least reasonably reassuring. Sure there is the 30% unlisted arguments, but those companies do appear to be rather robust and also companies seemingly well placed to ultimately come out of the current abject conditions smelling of roses.

Sure, a few may wither, and sure Moderna aren't looking as rosy as expected. A great deal of the low estimation imho is based upon pessimistic speculation.

That lot being said, I do entirely agree that at 100% anyone would be well advised to consider diversification..

I hold 25% SMT currently, which I know could conceivably argued too much, although I am comfortable with that risk wise as goes the corresponding upside. Sure there are possible.. long unevidenced) downturn possibilities as goes individual concerns, but I just feel far more assured of medium to long term gains than losses.

I guess it's all about individual risk perspective. I do agree 100% does carry risk, however, such type of all in investing perhaps meriting a more low risk approach despite the spread of nest eggs within.