Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Agreed LLL.
I know he didn't recommend 9 years, but the length of average holdings it might be inferred that this would be an even more sensible timeframe, especially given the past 2 years of loss and poor performance.
It just struck me that to point this out would subtly underline (and offer inference) of the extraordinariness of the past couple of years and somehow curb the "5 year" expectation of holding and profiting, as I personally believe reaching the £16 2021 height by 2026 to be probably fairly unlikely.
It was simply my interpretation of a subtlety in his commentary.
Another poster here (can't remember who) had posted that this current aberration isn't one of the biggest in the trusts history also.
As ever I feel very happy to have SMT in my portfolio right now.
Thanks for the link LLL.
Can't find anything glaringly out of place there myself and I see no reason to criticise anything other than him appearing to suggest the trust now be held for beyond 5 years (he suggests 9 as an "average" under the current circumstances).
That premise would certainly result in some lively [done to death :) ] exchanges based upon previous discussion here, but it does seem a reasonable (indeed anticipated by self) premise under circumstances that have little to do with SMT.
I don't however believe it will take an inordinate amount of time for SMT as stands to recuperate a great deal of the losses since Nov 21, but that's just my best personal guess..
It seems obvious to me that returns are going to be stretched out by the current loss of sentiment for investments less likely to deliver "jam tomorrow", and so I don't hold this against him.
I guess even if high interest rates continue for quite a few more years (and indeed stay higher that they have in the previous decade) then eventually these type of investments will make money as the resultant innovations and successes become increasingly prevalent?
Maybe a better way to view it is akin to a "hole" or "depression" within these kind of investments caused by the shock of high inflation which productivity and innovation will eventually fill resulting in an inevitable increase (dramatic or otherwise) in fortunes regardless of continual higher than the wished for low target future interest rates?
That's kind of how I view it, although I do think it will be quite a while between we see the prior frothy height of a £15 SP again. Again, who knows??
I cannot quite visualise things not becoming at least quite a bit more comfortable with SMT in the near future, but never say never, I suppose...
And on that note I've said my piece(plus contributed in my wish to settle the dust on clogging up yet another thread that would have been more useful to members had it not been).
Might be worth someone starting a new thread and we can try again?
Ok, ok Fela...
So we are human and sometimes we embellish. We are not machines and "to err is human".
We are mainly intelligent investors on here and so it's a bit rude, inflammatory and largely pointless to underline everything anyone says on this... All you are going to achieve (I promise you) is alienation, a lower likelihood of contributions from members who believe they will be criticised, decrease the flow of free thought and expression and ultimately mute and stupefy a useful medium for the exchange of thoughts and ideas.
We can ourselves infer the nuances of any given offering on here from any particular member without it having to be elevated as a "wrong" and debated to the 'nth degree.
Can you not see that?
We are not machines on here subject to criticism or deep introspection of each uttered sentence, and if we were I wouldn't be joining in.
I value the general jist of all contributions on here whether they amount to verbatim or not, but there is a standard and etiquette in the way things might be challenged in comparing opinion.
I wish to God you understood this as (IMHO) your logic and knowledge does sit far more comfortably here than your oft (shall we say) slightly blunt approach.
I'd say that LLL made money ABOVE inflationary rate erosion since 2016 (most years close to 2% inflation per annum) now we have arrived at Sept 23.
Doubling your money over 6 years amounts to 14.28% appreciation per annum. I'd suggest the average inflationary rate over that period to be no more than (say) 4%?
On reflection is that shoddy?
As to exactly how LLL framed it and for what illustrative or practicable purposes, who cares?
We are all human and having our statements picked to death by others on here encourages our own statements to be picked to death on here..
Go figure...
Fela,
Just using your argument if the 6 year timeframe lets move that argument back to looking back just 4 years at the point of November 2021, shall we? It would be better had I an all time graph at 6 years, but I don't..
Does 300% profit sound decent performance to you???
It's all relative and you can't just pick this moment in time because it suits a pointless argument and say that "that's the truth of SMT"..
The fact you are holding tells me you know this too..
Keep the challenges coming, sure (as it promotes useful reflection which it's obvious you enjoy engendering), but this argument is deceased I'm afraid.
Fela, the point is that I don't care about "representation of decent performance" and it's only you who seems to be endlessly focussed on that (bringing it back in despite the fact it's been discussed fruitlessly for months).
Such very simplistic reflections are useful as a standby, but it's blindingly obvious why SMT has slunk in the manner it has and your argument accepts absolutely zilch as concerns the reasons SMT has done so badly.
Those reasons amount to a far more compelling argument as to the loss aberration, so why do you consistently fail to focus on those?
You've admitted you are holding SMT, and so on that basis why the subject pessimism seeing as it appears to suggest you enjoy seeing your money go down the drain?
We know it's done badly.
I know you do this to promote heat (which can be a very good thing) and that is great, but arguments based on the past don't hold up in the case of this type of investment in the current world economic environment.
You know this???
Can we have your thoughts therefore on any possible upside in the future?
What do you personally think will happen with SMT?
Fela, We all know SMT haven't performed well and crash dived more than most since late 2021.
Just because it happened, it doesn't mean that SMT is actually a dud investment.
I know you call this out simply to underline it's fairly rough recent performance, but we all know this and so it isn't necessary.
Once the slide started, most assumed it would stop and so as time went on (and it didn't) people held on rather than play the old (usually fail) game of knife catching.
I held on and did nothing (apart from adding a few) because I personally believe SMT will recuperate a lot of their value and still do fairly well against inflation for the (admittedly) long period I have held them.
I have faith in this trust despite the nav abberation and all the rest of it.
Whilst I am luckier than many because of having bought donkeys ago, should my belief in fairly sustained recovery be proven true then those who have bought at the top of SMTs price history (when it was frothy as Hell) will gain also via not ejecting prior to or even during a period of sustained recovery.
I expected a slide when inflation went up, but never dreamed it would get this low. None of us did in truth.
Crucially I have argued all along that the endless debates re "Anderson taking SMTs performance out of the door with him", " boardroom spats", " dangerous investment tactics" etc, ad infinitum negative media... all in fact amounted in my mind to crushing sentiment beyond similar trusts (IE ATT for example, which also lost, but not as badly).
I therefore believe that SMT refinding trust and losing its critics (which I believe to some extent it already has done so) will increase its value more than those similar trusts as we emerge from these current economic conditions.
I think all LLL said was that he felt optimistic that things would get better, not that SMT had performed amazingly for him from his purchase until today. We have debated that old onion and infinitum.
I'm holding with optimism because I personally believe that things will get a lot better for SMT, but this isn't made up purely by comparison to indices, theory and mathematics (in fact I have to admit only as goes those aspects to an embarrassingly small extent)..
Nope..
My assessment is based upon 35 years of solid investing, knowledge of human beings, their general psychology and keeping my nose to the ground.
As I get older I realise these attributes are more use to me than indices, theory and maths, but that's my perspective..
You can have yours but it doesn't mean that you are right and everyone else is wrong.
None of this means I don't think about what you write on here, which is all to the good (in my mind at least) :)
LLL, I agree. SMT is certainly less volatile recently.
I guess that's going to be a logical parallel to more positive sentiment which will improve unless inflation is to remain fixed at highs (which they won't because this will inevitably lead to world economic collapse).
Sure, something else could come along to rock the boat again, but I definitely agree that things seem more measured now.
Another indicator is that comparative to my other "tech" closed ended investment trust holdings ATT and PCT, SMT are (and have for some time) either roughly matched or exceeding those other daily performances.
I guess this does indicate possibly more trust sentiment for the SMT management team in addition to rising confidence in the future returns of this type of investment.
It all feels a bit better than it did 6 months ago in my mind...
I hold both, but at the moment would recommend ATT, Frogster. Slightly less of the big stuff in there. They have actually (I believe) performed slightly better than pct since Nov 21.
Nothing wrong with PCT either, so why not divide your investment across both?
I actually seem to remember it was finally sorted out via AJ Bell, DorsetLSE...
It's a long shot, but maybe contact them. I see no reason that the fund is still not in existence somewhere, and I'll bet they did the underwriting.
Barclays never mentioned that AJ Bell basically did everything under their Barclays label, and so it may be worth discussing it with them?
As looking after investments is their domain you will find them much more professional and helpful (I would hope).
Just a thought...
I'm guessing you tried to contact the Banking Ombudsman (or solar) should anything even exist, DorsetLSE?
My personal experience with them also makes me well understand why you would feel it better just to give up, but I'm thinking there just has to be a way to hold them to account for this.
It is absolutely disgusting.
I believe Barclays Wealth was under the same division as Barclays Stockbrokers, DorsetLSE.
I had similar problems when leaving them, I think down to the same relative issues.
Once Barclays dumped the old format (which I think was before 2011), I had loads of "connect" issues which involved AJ Bell (as essentially Barclays then used AJ Bell under the Barclays label, meaning Barclays had little to actually do with the Stockbroking side at all).
When I had my problems trying to transfer out after the change they "lost" holdings and screwed up the link for certain dividends to follow me to my transfer destination. My transfer organisation (Interactive Advisor) sorted it out eventually constantly contacting Barclays and coming against the same brick walls, although it was not their responsibility...
As Barclays had restructured everything, no one seemed to know anything or care in the slightest.
I would agree with you re Barclays now, although at one time they where a decent provider.
Words fail me as to the ineptitude if Barclays tbh, and I urge all to steer well clear. They are really expensive now anyway (under the "SmartInvestor" label), and seemed to be chasing an ultra simplistic quick and expensive trading platform that has poor backup and customer service.
I gave up after 5 years of being on the new platform, as my costs had spiralled, yet all of the intelligence (the old interface was in depth with loads of tools and info) and support had disappeared. Knowledgeable staff you could once ring became faceless morons who knew nothing.
They still hadn't got an app after 5 years of being with them, and although they advertised that you could see your accounts by joining internet banking and in that app, this was not even possible unless you also had a Barclays bank account (which they admitted when you actually spoke to them).
Absolutely hideous outfit ..
Meconopsis, absolutely agree re II (Interactive Investor).
It's just increased in cost to £10.99 per month / per account from £9.99 which they have held at this for many years. And that's it... You are given free trades every month also (should you ever need them).
I have an ISA and SIPP with them and it adds up to £264 per year, which is peanuts considering the amounts invested.
Swapped to them from Barclays when Barclays shifted down from a top end quality provider at reasonable cost down to "Smart Investor", which is basically a dumbed down and glitchy version of HL.
Trouble was swapping from them to II.. Barclays "lost" my ISA and "lost" dividend payments that happened during the transition.
II were amazing at sorting this and Barclays absolutely woeful. After about a year I got some compensation out of them.
II usually have a joining offer in which fees are waived for 6 months...
LLL, Thanks for your lengthy and very useful explanation re Fundsmith for me today.. I have gone with the I class Acc (as you hold), but only after reading through all the bumph as to the differences.
Income strikes me as similar to dividends, which I always feel would be better reinvested for quite a few reasons.
I do actually agree with you on the lesser likelihood of legislation causing particularly big problems to the big hitters, but in my personal case I realised I just held too much in those big hitting companies across different ITs and just wanted to dilute risk a little more.
Fundsmith holds a lot less in terms of that lot and plenty of unique concerns comparative to my others, and that's fairly attractive to me in 3 ways; spreading risk, reducing the outright amount ultimately invested in a relatively small handful of mega big companies (those being currently targeted as discussed), and last (but not least) buying into other tech to hold long term that won't be hammered directly every time China and the West get tough on each other.
Thanks to you for initially bringing the investment to my attention, and every one else on here who has commented on my questions :)
Fab Frogster!! Yes.. Unfortunately Interactive Investor offer around 8 Fundsmith accounts, 6 that follow the same funds with the fluctuation in ocf and (a letter off Terry for those marked T).. that made me laugh a bit!
I have purchased the I fund, and despite no one knowing think it a sensible diversification for me from PCT which appears even more highly exposed to China and US regulation than ATT..
I'll prob do more to diversify, but this seems sensible to start.
Sure, Fundsmith has wallowed a bit in recent years, but has however seemed far less volatile than SMT for example.
This to me suggests that it is a trusted and rated investment (seems Morningstar still rate it 5 stars) that only appears to me depressed for the obvious factors effecting future returns (is the dreaded high inflation).
I really think it will rise as SMT once things become more assured which will attract investment.
Thankyou to all on here bringing it to my attention and for the other advice in buying in.
The constant legal challenges on monopoly supercompanies does worry me a little I have to admit .
Also quite where China is going, Gawd only knows... I do however fear that current conditions may induce quite a tip dependent on (specifically) China's reaction to them.
I have always considered China an incongruous investment choice from a Western perspective despite seeing too much opportunity there in the past to dissuade me from investing...
Maybe times are changing a bit...