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Apologies mistake start of my last post.. interesting that it's ok for Israel to behave this way and not Russia... Different circumstances, sure, but mass population slaughter and invading/subjugating any country doesn't seem to have much excuse in my mind :(
Interesting how it's ok for Israel to do this kind of thing but not Israel. Sure, Israel were heavily provoked, but the Gazan body count is nonetheless staggering and it's now clear (as most of us thought in the beginning) that Israel's aim is to annihilate the innocents as an easy consequence to eradicating Hamas.
Whichever way you look at it, it does seem to me to amount to little less than genocide and I do wonder how this can sit with consciences given the events of nearly 80 years ago.
At least Putin is taking at least slightly more care of human lives, although I am personally convinced of the big Israeli benefit of land to spread into once the job is done. It's just got to be a factor in their thinking given their infringement on Gazan territory over a great many years.
It seems if a country has economic worth and is an ally to the West then they get supported despite their acts. Given the "anti semetic" ace card that somehow seems to be played despite religion and race being completely irrelevant, I guess they have become a difficult country to criticise
I have to admit I'm a bit angry and cynical as goes it all there right now, and if I see the injustice in it God alone knows the level of resentment this might be likely to release in countries like Iran, for example.
Getting off the politics and ethics (apologies), as I've stated a few times on here over the last year or so, the world just has too many people in it now, and I feel this to be the biggest threat to the investment world right now. No room to for countries to breathe or flourish as in the past and conflicts becoming more likely..
We couldould be that the golden days are in fact over
LLL, I just came on here to reply exactly the same thing. I feel sympathy for the plight of Gazans as Israel would obviously love to "cleanse" the strip of them on both a confrontational, security and economic front (and of course it seems if we are all honest that this is what is happening).
I would have preferred rather than strike back at Houthi targets if the West had brought sanctions against Israel as concerns their wholesale.
The consequences of this I worry is that the understandable sympathies for Gaza in the middle east may help the fans flame. Fingers crossed for both the Gazan people and economic fortunes that this doesn't go awry.
interesting re amar bhide, but i'm surprised an investment amounting to 40k or so chiseled down by obvious & endemic factors would get someone sour enough to kick off in the fashion he did given his likely level of renumeration within the trust.
i think we will never know, although i guess it might have added to his attitude i suppose.
either way, it didn't help the share price much given the way the media immediately pounced on it and publicised it so negatively (no doubt fueled by the resentful bhide himself).
fairly unprofessional i might suggest. hopefully the door smacked him on the **** in his way out :)
LLL. As you say it's impossible to assess someone's worth by their presentation. An actor may appear a likeable person, only to be a less pleasant personality in real life (or vice versa). We are not privvy to his working ability or qualities beyond those we perceive from his public presentation.
Autistic people (for example, we are all autistic to at least a very small degree), come across as often withdrawn, shy, unintelligent, lacking vibrancy... I could go on).. Think Albert Einstein for one of hundreds of examples. I could go on.
Its just not straightforward or scientific in any way to infer it worthy of assessment.
Points fair enough Tambo12, but how was Slater supposed to create stellar results in the market conditions he inherited. Sure the trust did worse than other similar one, but haven't we discussed those here over the years to exhaustion?
300 was touted by a few on here during the worst periods of fall, but I always ignored that possibility on the basis of my own assessment.
Was I correct? Well, I have been up to date and was I to believe that was possible anytime soon Id be selling.
I'm not because SMT is actually enjoying better popularity than any of my other holdings today (plus has risen more on average since around a month ago).
As stated, each to their own.
If you feel it's a buggered investment with the propensity to belly flop at any time I'm interested why you are not cutting your losses and selling now rather than waiting for £8.10?
What gives you the faith you think it will get to £8.10 rather than £9 (for example)? Over the last 40 years I have always sold at a point of lack of faith and got the cash into something I consider a better short term bet. It has always been the correct decision so I'm interested as to your reasoning.
Quid pro quo re the questions...
Apologies Tambo12. I didn't answer all your questions. As stated before I viewed (and it's a personal view) £6.50 as the absolute pits SP for SMT. I'm judging that only on it being the absolute lowest reached point over the last 2 years. You then look at the discount to nav at circa 20% for both those periods.
As stated, I believe the "extra risk" associated with unlisted acquisitions (which have created a lot of the fear surrounding SMT) to be offset against at least one of two potentially going big before anyone else gets wise and the SP rockets. This is actually SMTs mo and I'm sticking with that. Sure it's made it riskier than it once was at 30%, but no pain no gain & it's relative.
Definitely worthwhile in my mind to invest money you could potentially lose, although I personally believe the "risk" label over applied.
Even the 30% unlisted are all companies carefully chosen for their durability and potential, all with big collateral & financial parachutes...
Given that I did buy more at around £6.60, but not as much as I would have liked. At the current SP I'll sit and wait, although had I a bunch of extra cash I'd consider right now even at £7.50.
I do feel a little perplexed as goes the differing opinions of it on this forum as all I see are the obvious factors that are depressing it right now.
If it rains it's because of the weather, but there seems to be a lot of nit picking around SMT the minute it takes a plunge... PCT, for example, is an eminently respected and managed fund that has performed worse since the new year (as have many others for the same geo political and inflationary fear reasons), but somehow bad times for SMT always boil down to mismanagement? I'm not buying that but each to their own.
Hi Tambo12. I actually like the degree of unlisted risk that seems to worry so many. As goes where I see it in 2025, I would simply say that on the balance of probability and given more settled conditions (stable interest rates for a starter) I would like to think of a steady incline in value (where exactly I'm not sure).
The investments within the portfolio are certainly not fud ones and investment in technology eventually turns out saleable ideas and goods. Any threat of high interest obviously scares off the short termers invested in it as a great proportion of investors want returns stat.
We aren't about to stop coming up with ideas both as new ones or solutions to problems.
I agree times are no longer premium for these kinds of investments, but do believe they will continue to make money.
Nothing has changed in my mind to suggest otherwise but I always boil stuff down to simplistic presiding factors.
I wouldn't have money in SMT I couldn't afford to lose, but then that's been my lifelong investment mantra.
Of course I can never say I won't press the eject button, but nothing that has happened in the last 30 years has encouraged me to do so with SMT. Sure, I wish I'd pulled at least half around Nov 21, but didn't have the crystal ball so stuck to my guns. I'd be disappointed if staying invested still didn't leave me miles above my initial investments even at the low point of 6.50.
It became so unrealistically frothy before Nov 21 (the SP) that in all consideration my losses were not realistically as great anyway.
That's my take and I'm sticking.
Just noted the expected upturn. Let's hope fears settle more. They always do. At some point.
As above, meant to say (re spooky) that SMT isn't a short term gain type of investment. We all know this (and I do understand that loads of people have lost buckets getting in fairly recently), but it does take some bravado and a certain slant towards the attitude of sitting on hands.
If it's not for you then it's not for you.
Mr Americano. It's not about the NASDAQ but the NASDAQ is an indisputable marker of confidence.
Have a little peak at the performance of other well reputed trusts such as pct and att over the last month. Can you discern any great difference?
You're correct about the world situation as goes geo politics and these ever increasing events will lead to a dampness in investment. If this is a worry then I'd suggest not investing in concerns likely to be effected greatly by this. I would also strongly advise anyone investing in SMT for a short period only to withdraw when things get spooky (easy as it is for me to say that given how SMT has rewarded me over the years).. Don't get me wrong, I've lost in the past but never bemoaned it as that's the way the cookie crumbles.
We still have some way to go down before a return to the low of 6.5.
I'd say come back and comment in a couple of years.
SMT has suffered volatility over the past 2 years odd now, but to single them out after 1 week of activity (especially given they have performed no worse than well respected other funds skirting similar territory) seems slightly harsh.
Funny how opinions swing in so little time here.
It's investing. There is no crystal ball and what seems catastrophic one week can turn completely the next.
Ps. I have no overlying concerns as to the management of SMT. Others may well do so. If so buy out..
Tambo12, I'd say that's the kind of belief behind every fund manager. Funny how on here the critique only comes when the dog is down.
It's called investing.
My oerspective is my own.
I've invested in this trust for the last 30 years or so and have done extremely well.. that's through the 2000 crash and other failures in fortune also.
I know (stuck record returns) that the latest falls have again been effected by interest rate renewed fears, colder feet re Gaza, Ukraine and other issues that (of course) have a downward effect on generalized sentiment towards a great many tech connected concerns.. Looking right now (today) pct are down 1.65% whilst SMT are 1.51%. The Nasdaq has dropped massively over it's gains since the new year because of these fears which tells us what?
It tells us the swathe of tech investment industry and loosely related same is in disfavour.
Singling out SMT is silly.
It's endemic.
Seems everyone is fixated on SMT and not everything else going on and other similar concerns. Look at ATT, PCT and a bunch of others. Same if not worse.
Again (and I repeat) it's a sentiment reflection based on current fears and worries based upon where we are now.
I'm not sure SMT is for a great many investors contributing here, tbh :(
I just see it as a natural occurrence. Inflation taming. Profitability window closer. Both short and long term speculators seeing a return to favourable conditions. A sustained cessation of volatility. Sentiment returning to that of a profitable window. This was always by far most likely to happen as every strain of world economy and every government wants a low inflation society. Add that to the fact that man will never stop wanting (and paying well for) new ideas and solutions.
Of course we could go back with a new world issue or catastrophe (economic or political, and we live in a crowded world now where the odds of this are increasing all the time), but we will in time again move forward.
Simplistic, but as ever this stuck record stands by it.
LLL . Absolute agreement to your final point. Think and buy well. Hold.
Buying and selling has costs attached to it and most often (in my experience) ends up with me kicking my own butt. It is after all knife catching and can be a bit disappointing when the purchased element underperforms the sold out one.
Imho (based upon my assessment of a most likely future), this will be Mr Americano's sum experience over the next 12 months and beyond as goes his decision, but as stated life is not about making money but being happy.
If holding SMT causes anyone sleepless nights I'd have no hesitation advising them to sell up asap.
I'm very much an each to their own type of person and do feel that Mr Americano's 30% might seem too much for a great deal of people. Having said that we're 10% "practically guaranteed" in the game of investment then I feel leant towards saying that interest paying savings accounts would likely become a dinosaur of the past. Who would bother with them given such a gold plated return?
If Mr Americano's decision allows him better sleep at night then so be it. If it were me I would have perhaps balanced the decision at maybe a retain half approach. I currently hold 25% of my portfolio in SMT and would be loathe at this point to sell any. I did buy into Fundsmith by selling some PCT which I felt too entrenched solely in companies constantly targeted as having unfair monopolies plus too exposed to China (possible overeaction on my part), but am glad I did so as I feel it has leant a greater safety to my portfolio by doing so.
As inflation is dropping I'm just heading into the black as goes that investment (thanks for the advice from all here on that one).
As for SMT, my somewhat conservative belief is that it will likely go some way beyond 10% from today to 30th November 2024 (predicted therefore at around £8 minimum), but who knows to what extent the next big world event will scupper anyone's predictions?
I guess we will see, but everyone is going to have their individual strategies and perception of risk and so each to their own.
Certainly trust no newspaper, or any of the investment media in my mind. I'd say the most obvious markers are written big on the wall, but sentiment is still muted. I'd just look at what we know to be going on with this type of investment at the moment and the likelihood of travel direction. You then have to add in your assessment of risk. I'd never thought of SMT as a particularly risky investment despite it's volatility (which makes it a long termer unless you feel convinced it's at its low). Plenty of burned fingers for those who thought this, so caution is required.
I'd buy more if I had the cash spare, but that's me and if I then lost money in the immediate term I'd look back on my 30 years of investing, shrug my shoulders and wait for the upside.
That's how I've always done things but beyond thinking hard as to my purchases initially & spreading risk I've never actually developed a strategy beyond a few basics you could scribble on the back of an envelope :)
I am also massively cynical as to the investments media. There's a lot of money made for financial institutions in encouraging buy/sell mentality simply on the basis of trading costs.
Bearing that in mind is helpful as my experience has been that it is rarely panic stations just because the headlines state so.
There is usually a rebound as the threshold of "looks cheap" is crossed and the sharks move in. As stated... Research well. Buy well. Hold.
I've mentioned luck, but don't wish to mislead.
Buying well is the key, but then "luck" dictates the ride.
The example of PCT outperforming SMT is an example here.
Despite "luck" (as in crystal balls) being a factor, buying intelligently and well (plus matching your investments to timeframes in which they might seem more likely to provide decent returns) shapes your chances of ultimately succeeding.
That's how it's turned out for me anyway.
I don't necessarily disagree with selling if a stock or interest is underperforming, Andy, but I always try to quantify the reasons.
I sold no SMT during the fall from Nov 21 because I could see no reason to do so. I knew the economic reasons why it was falling out of favour and considered it unbelievably cheap as it was shunned and shunned.
Had I had the old crystal ball I'd have sold the lot at £16 and held cash until it hit £6.40, then reinvested the lot.
Instead I kept to my old and trusted tactic of doing nothing as there is absolutely no way you can know What is going to happen.
I find it incredible that SMT fell so far, but believe that it will reciprocate with a similarly impressive recovery.
9 times out of 10 when I have sold something that I believe to be inherently good I have regretted it. Catching knives can lose you fingers.
When the flock rushes for the door the best thing to do is sit on your hands.
Andy, it's all luck... Do you know I flogged loads of PCT to buy more SMT because it was performing so well pre Nov 21? There was no great thought behind it but I don't regret it as a bad decision, because it just wasn't. I had no idea PCT would outperform SMT, but I really do believe that SMT could well start to outperform PCT now.
I consider them both future winners, however.
You take your losses and you take your gains, but as long as you are up beyond the decay of cumulative inflation over the years you've done well.
I view it as a long old game in which you buy well and ignore the panic.
It's done well for me cummulatively despite some hideous nose dives (which I have philosophically tried to ignore).