Member Info for Walp

Totally agree Meconopsis.

That is an interesting perspective, Beachouse. SMT could go up in the next year, it could go down, or it could keep in nudging up and down.

I believe however we have seen enough of the nudging up and down behaviour triggers to satisfy myself that the core of the issue is all essentially down to high inflationary fears versus inflationary recovery hopes...

I'm satisfied enough on this to hold on despite the

nav discount worries and the speculation that SMT management went rotten the second Anderson stepped out over the threshold.

With that in mind, I might well have been one of the people buying from Captain Picard had I the spare funds and hadn't simply remained invested in SMT for a great many years.

Having said that even if I had more to invest I don't think I'd buy more as it stands, but if I had no SMT I'd defo opt for a punt...

It doesn't mean my perspective is right though...

I'm with Fela on this also Captain Picard, as it's all a game of personal perspectives and following one's own assessment.

If you think that this trust will never prosper then you should really sell up and put it into something that you believe will do better.

I'm with you that there's no point flogging a dead donkey, but if you do believe this IT to be a lost cause and that it will struggle to proceed in the UP direction then it make more sense to sell now and put it in something that you consider having a better chance at giving you returns in the future.

Never hold onto a lame duck in the hope of getting your money back.

The question is however; is SMT actually a lame duck, or (despite its unpopularity at the mo) does it have the propensity to make money as the market conditions depressing it's individual components improve?

I personally have as much faith in this as you have doubt, but as stated... We all have our individual perspectives and limits and should absolutely act on them.

I wish you luck whichever way you go :)

Slightly less hawkish stance from the fed yesterday suggesting that the US is nearly in control (but not quite with the possibility of a further small hike or two) suggesting slightly greater positivity than expected.

A possible light rebound from Monday, perhaps???

Fed determination to arrive back at 2% inflation certainly reassures me more than the BoE success.. I think a large part of the problem in bringing world inflation down could be the likely depression in spending and consequent increase in accumulated wealth during COVID restrictions?

In my mind all can only come together in time as rates reach the correct level & people's wealth and credit availability subsequently diminishes.

It's a waiting game for sure, but I view eventual positivity as natural and inevitable a force as gravity.

We still have some time to go in the tunnel.

Yesterday's slump was largely down to decreased in large tech fund values dropping (eg Amazon). Observing also a subtle shift in the US news, I'm thinking it is quite likely the fed will lift interest rates at 3pm today rather than the previous positivity they would freeze. That's going to be way after the lse shuts but if that's felt likely today then we are likely to slide a bit more towards the end of today and certainly tomorrow.

More negativity ahead for a couple of days in all likelihood if that happens I suppose...

A note to purists..

I use the Nasdaq as a general marker to all of my (even loosely) tech orientated investments as I find it gives me a generalistic yet simple and reliable pointer as to sentiment.

Each to their own, of course :)

Just a guess but given the Fed speech tomorrow marking what was deemed likely a freezing of interest rates, I'd make a wild guess that there's some insider info out there that now suggests another rate hike to gain a firmer yet grip on the US economy. There's nothing else going on I can ascertain immediately.

Given that we aren't in the privileged position to day trade, I guess it's the same old reaction that will in all positively lead to a rebound once the dust settles and reason returns.

I guess at least we are moving further towards the end even though we could still be in the middle.

I'm not panicking and am still as far down on the chart as possible in terms of selling.

Just trying to find out. Nasdaq as a whole has tanked so probably same old volatility of sentiment.

Fed news still dictates positivity..

I guess we will have a better idea later, but as is often the case SMT is faring worse than similar trusts...

I would agree there's a huge bubble risk with AI. Dot com comes slightly to mind, although I personally feel that it's on a micro scale to that.

The potential is still there to boost wave of positivity and expectant investment that later gets withdrawn.

I also agree that fragments of SMT doing well is great, but that the problem at the moment reflects more the peculiarities surrounding SMT that have created the apparent drag in sentiment we have witnessed over the last year and beyond.

Have I missed something?

SMT appears to have ended it's lse run today close to it's daily high point and I'd expect general tech positivity shown in the US up to nyse close a short while ago to drive them further tomorrow (excepting any new negativity arising inbetween as is often the case)?

I will accept that they haven't performed quite as well as my other similar tech based trusts, but still believe previously discussed issues around SMT are unfairly levelling undue caution (which I think is reflected in the continuingly high discount to nav).

Much has been discussed around this however, and opinions of the significance of it are if course a little split..

I still think SMT will have its day.

I would also repeat my mantra as to the essence of man and his wish to improve his lot and continue to seek answers to technological issues...

As you have always correctly stated LLL, SMT is not pure tech (eg Amazon). Pretty much everything in it does relate however in how it follows and capitalises on the latest tech (funding and pushing for innovation and creation) in order to capitalise and expand.

Man will always want better and the world will remain tech adhered in attaining this, even when we go "backwards" in terms of finding solutions to issues such as global warming and answers to dwindling resources.

Organisations and companies wish not to go bankrupt and on that basis actively look for new answers in staying alive. People of course pay well for these solutions, which offer (imho) an inexhaustible "success" drive behind those kind of enterprise's.

This may seem a simplistic and obvious observation, but it has served me well over the years and despite the gloom of the last couple of years I have happily stayed invested and still remain satisfyingly profitted with a long term withdrawal aim.

I feel for those having invested shortly before Nov '21 and of course it will appear a shocking loss to those people which is why I feel impelled to at least share this positivity as concerns what I personally believe is the likely floor level price for this trust at just North of 600p.

There are no guarantees, of course.

Agreed LLL, but previous (pre '21) highs we're massively frothy. The media said so and we knew it. It was seen as a safe stash.

On that basis I'm afraid I also don't see it attaining those kind of heights for even beyond the 5 year argument.

I do however have increasing personal confidence in SMT making money within that timeframe from hereonin than anything else I think I think I've ever held.

On that basis I am more loathe to sell and would happily buy at the current price.

That is of course my somewhat repetitive opinion and I don't expect it to be shared by anyone else...

Given the constant return to just over 600p during the least optimistic of times over the last couple of years, right now I see SMT as an enterprise bridled to the lowest floor of its existence.

My old dad always said if investment (a lifelong investor who always bought well and held) that despite spending his entire life worrying about his investments, he need not have worried about anything at all.

SMT will come far, far better when the market conditions every economy in the world is pushing for come about.

The individual companies within SMT and similar collections are currently double restrained. Market conditions make them unpopular and because of that their advances & individual achievements will result in a muted immediate investment.

Far from being an unsafe and worrying acquisition I conversely view SMT as possibly the best possible current investment for anyone who can simply accept the essential reasoning for their current malaise.

Fela.. I am with that wisdom also...

Dystopian. Your thoughts reflect exactly mine.

The lowsx are naturally discussed on here 5 tinescas much as the highs, but would ask investors here to ask themselves this..

At points at which recovery has looked closer over the last year, how many times we have witnessed an upwards surge in the SP? The last period beyond 5 days ago was the most sustained yet and of course (beyond any reasonable doubt) reflected positivity re inflation and futures. Totally understood that the dips have come along when the positivity (again) turns bitter, but what more evidence is needed as to the causative issues?

We will possibly hit £6, but then we have been saying this for nearly 2 years now.

The general outlook is the absolute pits again right now, but on the basis that this will also amount to "the pits" in sentiment and appetite for SMT then I just question any sense whatsoever in ditching right now unless absolutely necessary for individual investors...

Sure, I've ditched stuff in the past, but never when such an obvious causative effect that has such a greater upside future appearance than downside, only when I've seen the opportunity for greater potential returns elsewhere, and only when an investment consistently underperforms despite no apparent reason.

It's obviously natural to feel the fear when the stakes are high, but then given that investing is a game that isn't based on certainties I'd certainly urge caution on offloading just now.

Purely my opinion and hopefully at least containing partial food for thought, whilst hopefully not putting the last nail in the walp "overpositivity" coffin :)

Beaub, I gave 3 examples of similar collective trusts. I accept your point, but was trying to underline a generality that doesn't simply hinge on SMT being singled outright now?

LLL, ok. I accept that much, but also as a health professional who experienced the blunt end of COVID and the present point, in which even few elderly comorbidity patients succumb to the virus, I would still assess the positivity to be somewhat overegged.

Of course there will always be a market for these antivirals, although in terms of protection again critical illness outcome we are finding earlier vaccines are still protectorate.

I just feel it likely that this particular boat has left now that COVID is in permanent general circulation and that any company can tweak an existing vaccine to cover recent variants...

A few months down the line it may also need tweaking again.

For me it's certainly not a massive deal and it's only a tweak on their existing technology...

Plus I would say to Shortwhacker that the Moderna efficacy with the new variant seems unlikely to me worthy of a 7.2% uplift in their share value but more of a kneejerk.

COVID vaccines are not a fantastically profitable enterprise (as AZN found, and indeed knew prior to their development if the first). I do believe Moderna will in all hopefulness eventually hit significant positivity, but believe this will occur in other new mRNA technology related health technology.

I have a feeling my incessant positivity rankles with a few on here so haven't posted recently, but can I just point out that all tech in general is suffering the same malaise given the renewed recent pessimism concerning China and world economics in general.

I would be lying if I said that the incessant uplifts then following drops aren't discouraging, but can see no good reason to offload anything soon.

I hold also att and PCT in the (loosely) tech sectors, and to be fair all have dropped on the 5 day charts to the same effect.

I also think aggressive day trading on charts, indices and theory isn't all it's cracked up to be (even if all the stars and moons support buying or selling on any singular action). This is because of the variable involved in geo political and world events.

In my experience things can change very quickly.

I maintain the best approach is to buy into something like SMT and allow the managers to do the sweating.

It's worked for me, and I remain unconvinced that an individual could have done tremendously better over the years I've held stuff generally..

Of course many surely have, but it really isn't a risk free enterprise (and I'll bet a great many have lost plenty also).

Not for me as life is for living (not sweating in a room over a computer)...