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SMTs relationship to the Nasdaq is coincidental yes, but I still believe appreciable. Given the variety of SMT of course it's different, it's always going to be difficult to stick it there.
In my mind the recent disparity between SMT and the Nasdaq actually underlines my perception of SMTs "underperformance" down to human issues rather than realistic issues.
There are either glaring holes in SMT holdings for the future or there aren't. The unlisted argument is done for me and so I'm not sure what that leaves.
Fair enough Fela96, but is this a true reflection of future value or one of perception? I've often posted of my opinion of the sway of the financial media, most here believing in that influence far less than I.
The main wild card I perceive is the increased weight of unlisted companies that amounts to an admittedly riskier strategy than of old. Having said that, I personally accept SMTs reasoning for doing so and feel the POS arguments outweigh the neg.
Like others on here I do agree that Nvidia is looking frothy right now, so appreciate the argument that SMT could do worse than to reduce holdings in that...
Having said that buying well and holding has resulted in net benefits as goes my portfolio, notwithstanding even the heavy losses seen with the inflationary issue and so I personally understand SMT not reacting in a kneejerk fashion which underlines their general strategy.
Was SMT to buy and sell in a kneejerk fashion to the sway of market tides generally I believe it would be a very different type of investment with it's own concerns.
In good times buying and holding seems to have stood it in good stead, and I still cannot see that general strategy going awry in more normal fair winded times.
My viewpoint is still therefore that the "problem" with SMT is in the main human perception (the basic human instincts for instant gratification and fast tracked wealth) & media sway that creates money by encouraging buying and selling reinforcing that.
I admit it's not all of the story by a long shot, but being a far greater student of human psychology than financial analyst I invite this perspective in the absence of other clear indicators.
Just scratching my head re the fact SMT drew red today whilst similar trusts gained appreciably.
I not a new surge in recent neg media activity re Bilde, plus anticipation for a bit of a bun fight at the SMT annual meeting at the end of June (reflecting on the last year's performance).
A rehashing of concerns re unlisted stocks also appears to be rekindled to some degree in recent media (2 to 3 days also)... Same old, in short, which has been discussed here in detail.
Can't see anything else to precipitate a loss today, but wonder if anyone else has any thoughts?
USA seems a good bet to me and for the same reasons as SMT I would lean towards it being as low risk as you can get given the greater immediate future likelihood of inflation easing rather than potentially worsening.
All things are of course possible.
I'd actually happily buy into some but am loathe to pull any of my investments right now as they are all more likely to make steadfast medium term gains than not.
Had I spare cash I'd extend my portfolio & go for USA right now.
despite thinking we have caught the crest of the wave before i'd like to feel optimistic here.
fingers therefore crossed for no new hideous world events, economic pessimism or further media *******s.
smt appears to be rather popular right now comparatively to other similar investment trusts (pct and att both on losses so far today contrasting smt current gain).
the swing in financial media "advice" has to have a great deal to do with this. how wonderfully manipulative the herd really are...
hopefully (finally) recognised as woefully underbought and the landslide of desertion will remediate somewhat over the coming many months (subject to chickens being fully hatched given the false flags and returns to volatility following the rare surges of the past 2 years).
And I work in the NHS in intensive care, and * could rant 9n all day about what the current govt have done to the nhs. No apology required Dontshootme.
I agree it's a digression on both of our parts, but justifiable given the circumstances and how astonishingly insular the given viewpoint (imho of course).
I'd go slightly farther in saying that if indeed the "left wing propaganda machine" got away with lies, please allow us to focus on the far more efficient Conservative propaganda machine, given the glut of media is actually Tory controlled.
As investors our interests are indubitably served better by the Tories, but please let's not allow personal gain to completely trump truth and ethics, no matter what our personal politics of favour..
Totally agreed Dontshootme. "Austerity" was a mild term applied by the Tories for what was in fact a clamp on public spending that went way beyond actual necessity and hurt those most vulnerable above all.
All whilst those who needed less continued to gain.
It is no secret that the rich have always got richer and the poor poorer under them, and Im not just talking about cash but public services, health, education the lot.
Apologies for becoming political on here (we all have our beliefs on that score).
LLL, Apologies. I missed your reply earlier.
Your right of course but I always seek to inject some positivity on here when it is scant, as you have probably noticed :).
I would contest your point as goes small time speculative investors not owning any SMT. I know a lot who held FB, Amazon, Tesla (etc) when they were flying high (it being am obvious gains sector when others were struggling) only to ditch when the nosedive was noted.
Admittedly, I don't know of many of these type of investors who have the good sense to buy a managed multi concern trust such as SMT, although the effect in valuation will amount to the same.
I believe this really has to account for a lot more than you think given the increasing trend in small time dealing and the numbers of Joe public out there.
My point was that as serious investors we on here know the dangers of reacting emotionally, which contrasts starkly to the swathes of investors out there who typically buy into a single entity holding and ditch the minute a serious downturn occurs to shove it elsewhere. Well... I would certainly like to think so, but we are all often guilty of reacting emotionally at the thought of wealth flowing down the drain, which I believe reflects ingrained sense of "money" as a fixed quotient (which of course it isn't as concerns investing).
I've no doubt a lot of more serious investors did the same (either holding a collective trust or otherwise), although I guess it all amounts to the same regardless..
The point I was trying to make was that regardless of what is causing it, I believe the effect to be grossly unfair and simply not reflective of the future value that SMT realistically retains for those who hold on.
SMT is anyway full of global companies...
My point is that all industries and businesses are looking for an edge either to stay in the forefront or exceed that. Technology will therefore remain profitable
Sure there will be swings of popularity, the current one being due to high 8nflation in the main, but it aint ever going to dry up and there will always be a thirst for it.
Paying companies to develop future ideas when 10% of possible future returns are trashed due to the devaluing influence of inflation is a big downer at the moment.
Its not permanent.
Well, all of those companies move forward and use tech in order to do so. They respond to the current if advancement. Tech is an integral part of any business.
Always has been and always will be.
No one wants to stay still and any successful business utilises technological advances.
It underpins everything.
Dontshootme, I think exactly that. Most investors want gratification and they want it now. They seem almost to have made the downside in concerns such as SMT a self fulfilling prophecy.
Things are tight at the mo for all, and whilst those able to may well hold the average punter might be thinking why the hell would I tag onto that sinking ship?
Times will change, but a great deal of investment money is made up of small tone reactionary "flutterers".
You can open a HL app account for nowt and buy what the hell you want for £20 these days.
It amounts to quite a lot of sentiment.
People want money and they want it now (especially now things are so tight).
Its not all of it but it is an element. Vive the long haul SMT argument ...
Haha.. You jammy bugger Nthoftheriver... Only joking. In retrospect I should have seen the extent of the inflationary crush coming and flogged too, but then so many losses in the past from reactionary selling have conditioned me to buy on balance decisions and then stick by it.. Come what may..
I've still done alright by it :)
Swings and roundabouts for me having invested for so many years, but wish I'd flogged Nov 21!
I've said it before and I'll say it again.
Advancement of ideas, technology, systems and strategies generally will always be sought after and pursued by man above everything else. Mankind wants to improve his lot individually, and individuals know that the one way to make a lot of money is to is to find something that improves people's lives generally.
SMT is not dealing in a great many concerns likely to fail under normal circumstances..
Yes there are risks, but then there always have and will be.
This is exactly why SMT suggest a longer term outlook. It isnt just a gimmick, but a conductive factor to the elements the fund invests in.
DorsetLSE. I have to agree that the NAV doesn't seem to have moved much in quite a while. I'm also not convinced by the lack of director purchases (in the same way that I suspect a lack of selling amongst insider shareholders also).
Now doesn't seem a particularly sensible time to sell SMT anyway (unless you are in the position of needing the money right at the moment).
Given the lack of appetite for tech right now and the still mixed portents for world inflationary recovery I'm also not sure I'd expect SMTs directors to be buying up right now, despite the much discussed discount extent.
I put my hands up to the erroneous statement that "we have seen the bottom" with SMT. Although I won't be so rash to repeat that prophecy what I would like to say is that I believe passionately that a day will come within the next few years that SMT becomes worth quite a reasonable amount more than it is worth now.
Also any issued statement might seem a bit foolhardy given the likelihood that future performance hinges so much on so many variables.. World economy, world events and continuing conflicts, not to mention the difficulty in judging likely time frames.
Unhappily, SMT lack a crystal ball as much as we all do.
If you are looking for investment Dontshootme, I wonder if you have looked Allianz Technology Trust or Polar Cap Technology? Both more purely tech based than SMT, have suffered less in the unpopularity stakes than SMT and have recently been less volatile also. Their current NAV discounts are around half that of SMT (don't have the same unlisted approach) and they are both closed ended ITs.
Had I the cash I'd be buying those way above SMT right now (but hasten to add I am happy to hold my SMT stake all the same, as I have though good times and bad over the last 20 odd years).
As for USA, Id be interested in other perspectives on here. Seems they have an equally massive discount to NAV as SMT but have a different team (albeit both being Baillee Gifford concerns).
Is this down also to fear re unlisted holdings? Interesting...
If so could we be talking of an umbrella approach by BG rather than singling out the SMT team?
Dontshootme, I ditched my holdings of PHI around 4 years ago down to China's rather erratic relationship with the West after nearly doubling my money in just one very short year.
If you look at their simple graph performance over the last year, you will see quite a lot of volatility (and recent heavy loss) down to China's general behaviour on the world stage.
I personal view Chinas seizure of Taiwan a future certainty rather than simply a possibility, although even the simple possibility of this happening still puts me off buying into it.
Sure, it isn't all Chinese holdings but SMT themselves reducing their stakes as things have gotten hotter in there (I think) tells you all you need to know.
Having said that lot, you could buy in now and do very well, but I certainly don't like the look of the slide of the last 3 months in the graph which obviously relates to fears that Xi Jinping might be about to do a Putin on Taiwan.
It might seem a silly thing to do given the economic cost the West would then heap on China, but then we are dealing with an entirely different culture with an oft puzzling set of priorities.
I've enough volatility in my current holdings (given simply the constant Chino-West trade bickering), so intend to keep clear of PHI for the immediate future, having said that fair winds would probably make it a no brainer.
Ps The unlisted of course are the wild card everyone is discussing, but I am personally sympathetic to the SMT team argument that they are sizeable concerns and have the infrastructure and organisation to survive.
Were they even not and in the worst case scenario, could I suffer the total loss of even half of these concerns in an apocalyptic scenario? Given that relates to 15% and given the upside that looks likely (who the hell knows when...), you bet I can.
Thankyou dontshootme. Some positivity.
Much discussion recently as goes the selection and retention of SMTs concerns by SMT direction, yet all of which relates poorly to the fact that there are some dynamite companies in there and little reason to forecast doom for the portfolio assembled.
All (even the unlisted) are extremely large and sophisticated concerns who have everything it takes to survive right now.
Once success reigns plus inflation cools I feel sure SMT will regain the market confidence it appears to have lost.