In4themoney, you are correct on those figures and I agree my comments were far too generalistic. I think a lot of the more recent losses for SMT above others can be explained by their trust popularity prior to high inflation above all others. Looking at the five year performances against the others mentioned this certainly seems a factor. They climbed higher during the bubble (I recall reviewing the 5 year performance and this much is true) and so it seems to me given the sudden big loss on popularity for all of it, had further to fall...
The loss of James Anderson, I recall precipitated a slide in the trust's popularity which I deemed a little unfair at the time, and since then there seems to have been a constant media stream barrage that has always been based upon conjecture and assumption.
Many of the holdings amongst the three trusts mentioned are in fact the same, and excepting the general distrust in China (all being exposed to that) see no strong argument in the general assessment of SMTs worth being diminished to the point it exists ridiculously below NAV.
On that basis, my loose assessment is simply that SMT are out of favour beyond the others down to a variety of factors that have no proven background.
There is nothing that quite gets the sheep herd running when everyone is crying wolf.
To my mind one man's "boardroom spat" is another man's heated discussion leading to hopefully better outcomes. No prizes for guessing how the media would choose to view it .. Sure it was heated and (sure) it has led to staff disagreeing with general policy to throw their hats in. You might even describe it as healthy and natural.
Let's all be honest with each other and ask ourselves whether this kind of thing happens to no ones interest or general detriment behind doors in boardrooms all across the country? That's why board meetings exist, to identify the correct way within an individual concern.
Why did this leak to the press in a damaging manner by a disgruntled member subsequently leaving the board? That's anyone's guess but I can certainly see a myriad of reasons, the worst of which the kind of media designed to stir up the market to generate trading costs and fees... Perhaps also to feather individual nest futures?
Whatever the reasons such tensions and brewing perspectival differences might appear fairly natural and healthy given the pressure SMT has been under over the last 16 months or so.
Had high interest not have reared its head I would have predicted a likely bubble pop, but certainly not the losses evident across ALL of these type of collective tech concerns (and I include PCT and ATT, both of which have suffered a near mirror collapse over the same period).
SMT appears firmly in the financial media eye right now, and you may well expect it to do so given its meteorological rise (now fall)... It's the perfect synopsis for collective tech and a concern of this kind most likely to be recognised by those reading the financial press.
I believe this "spat" will join all the rest of the fear speculation brigade tosh given time and be proven largely inconsequential, not that the consequences of anything at all can be fairly appraised in retrospect given all of the varying market factors and pressures.
Ever the current Ticktock/ bytedance *******s feels to me likely to blow over in time. It's more about the US flexing it's muscles with China as is often the case. Difficult to see a Ticktock ban given the economic benefit it gives and livelihoods it supports (despite me not being the greatest of fans on a quite a few ethical grounds).
I'm firmly with LLL and would implore people to never forget that the single most factor effecting things is global high interest rates.
Agreed it's not a given things will improve when high interest curtails (which we of course know it will), but it's certainly high odds.
Odds that good are rare within the investment world and so it's a no brainer in my mind (at least) to chill, hold and await the hopeful upside.
SMT's relation to the Nasdaq is always baffling. Whereas admittedly it isnt all pure tech, you might expect it to follow.
I could never have imagined a NAV so negative, but this also applies to other tech AICs such as ATT and PCT. The drops have effected all similarly, so to identify SMT as peculiarly negatively effected isn't accurate.
Everybody is out there for any profit now, and so why would new investors pitch into a line of investment that seems entrenched in choppiness?
Many of us remain invested and the patient and more long sighted amongst us wouldn't be unwise (imo) to invest right now.once inflation cures there will be a rush to get back into these kind of investments and better to be in before that inevitably happens.
That's my opinion on it all.
Dontshootme, I wontshootyou. I think on balance it's a wise decision. Clearly you have longer term vision than the bulk of the collective market participants desperately looking for short term returns.
I have a feeling those not wildly selling and buying upon the uncertainty will end up in the best place right now, and before all that long.
Disappointed in the drops again (generated by further pessimism re the fed and degraded Chino West relations down to injured pride), but am as resolute that China don't particularly wish to lose out on long term world economic opportunities and that high inflation is temporary as ever.
Volatility, volatility..
Expect volatility. Be patient.
The nav is massively disparate to the actual value and so will continue until people stop speculating to fulfil their need for immediate returns.
This is what dictates the prices now for the likes of us buying into a in investment trust l.
Of course once inflation corrects (it has to as the world economy is controlled by people who want low inflation), the volatile will curtail somewhat as people increasingly buy in.
We have seen this in calmer times.
Buy big if brave, buy in drip feed or just hold...
But don't sell.. just don't..
We have seen the bottom.
In short to my last post. For me life has always been about living. My main hobby is walking the hills and enjoying the outdoors not sat over a computer reading the financial press.
There are some fab financial brains on here, but I'm going to break convention on here by saying it's not all rocket science and sometimes sticking with basic yet sound investment ideas and belligerently sticking with them (even through calamitous periods) are enough to give you a fantastic mean return given time without having to catch knives in your sleep .
Yes, I've been lucky, plus call me lazy, but AICs suit me and SMT has done more for me than any other..
Just a perspective.
To my mind it's a swings and roundabouts of attitudes, but I'm happy with the security of dozens of tech companies selected by a team of experienced buyers.
The argument will go on as concerns "are they still up to it"? I personally believe little will change as goes SMT, and that losses will simply reflect the political and economic tides of history (as recent the recent losses reflect).
Tech will always generally make money (given the caveat of time) as it represents the outcome of the necessity for humanity to adjust and move forward. Humanity will never seek to move backward (a simplistic argument but I stand by it).
Investing the time and effort in researching, discovering & investing in an individual company just hitting the hi-ball curve of success is always going to garner my admiration.
Spread that out amongst 50 such companies in a single portfolio and having your research and facts correct, then you are essentially mimicking an aic.
It's not for me (I wouldn't sleep well, which is why 90% of my investments have always been AICs which have returned probably around 1000% in the last 30 years... which includes the losses in tech since Nov 21 ), but good luck and total respect to those who do.
SMT is for the long run (and I should know as I've held onto them for the last 25 years at least).
Exactly. And the fears that drive them are either (in reality) paper tigers or they are running too late or too early.
Despite SNT not exactly following the Nasdaq, those who do follow may have noticed a month plus long general (less volatile) shallow time vs rise in its value that hasn't been seen since November 21. Given the prospect of greener pastures for tech once inflation curbs (and that particular prospect becoming slightly palpable now, despite the future being hardly generalistically utopia), it may or may not be a sign that investment is worthy right now and an early sign that the long term investors are slowly buying back in...
I provide this simply as a possibility that I am increasingly leaning towards, although Im sure people out there will have their own opinion...
I did note the suggestion in the Investec discussion that it might be an idea to sell and buy back in increments on the basis of the price going down again, but then it didn't..
SMT is a long term investment and now (more than ever) I would suggest resisting the sheep instinct and standing firm against paper tigers...
So if I've read it right Investec says "unworthy/sell" and another broker (Numis) says (or at least the piece suggests) "worthy/hold"...
Strikes me as a great story to induce thousands of deals given the large popularity of SMT, which is a common and lucrative media based money making practice.
Fairly obvious way to produce buckets of money in commissions etc for the financial industry, I would say.
There's nothing quite as lucrative for these people than putting a tiger amongst the herd...
There's another nuance and my opinion on it, but I guess the coming year will likely tell...
So in short..
I am massively cynical and not in the slightest inclined to sell, but each to their own...
So if I've read it right Investec says "unworthy/sell" and another broker (Numis) says (or at least the piece suggests) "worthy/hold"...
Strikes me as a great story to induce thousands of deals given the large popularity of SMT, which is a common and lucrative media based money making practice.
Fairly obvious way to produce buckets of money in commissions etc for the financial industry, I would say.
There's nothing quite as lucrative for these people than putting a tiger amongst the herd...
There's another nuance and my opinion on it, but I guess the coming year will likely tell...
Agreed with all of that LLL. Agreed generally on the fund manager front also, but I have noted a slight upward gear shift in confidence and although as cynical as yourself, do believe that such investment is worthy. I also still (rather simplistically) have faith that tech will recover and always (generally) ascend.
Agreed totally re the height of Nov 21. We knew there would be a downside then, but not quite such a collection of circumstances so as to reduce it to where it now sits.
It was overinflated as seen as a safe haven for predictable profits, and so it fell very badly when the returns window was shot into the far distance.
I didn't sell anything, and although I'm disappointed that I didn't have the proverbial crystal ball before the price became free fall, I am nevertheless philosophical.
I've invested in tech for 30 years and done very well indeed and so cannot complain. I agree it will be years before the high of the past is re attained, but do have the confidence to hold out and that technology will likely be worth at least more than it is today before all that long.
I find holding and retaining the faith in the spread if AICs more comforting than reacting and diversifying, because (as you so rightly say) things have a way of evolving, and my experiences of selling along with the herd have cost me probably more often and more deeply than simply holding.
I agree with this, possibly.
There are also boom times for all things. In terms of SMT the single most factor reflecting it's overall considered current worth (which is as we have seen a shifting entity) is the high inflationary status the world finds itself in.
Of course this is effected somewhat by the Ukraine situation, but there are a great many factors.
Considering the futures of at least the greater part of SMT's investments, they all look unlikely to me to change in that inovation will continue to be necessary and sought after be it hard times or good.
The shocking aggression shown by Russia has galvanised the world and shifted values & comfort zones to the extent that tech will likely find new profitable avenues in addition to the necessity of developing the old.
In short world volatility (at least to my mind) produces zero negativity as goes the intrinsic value of technology.
I am no rocket scientist and certainly not up to some of the whizzkids on here who make investing a science, but have invested in technology for long enough to understand the security it gives to the long term investor. Sure, if you bought in before Nov 21 you would have gotten your **** bitten (my sympathies there), but I do think (very generally) we have popped down as far as is likely given the oft visited low that that's been reached many times over the last year.
There is positivity ahead, and that will inevitably mean an improvement in values.
As I wrote this I see all tech AICs are displaying a NAV at around 12% discount, which to me is pretty unprecedented. The market behaviour also strikes me as shark like buying up by long term thinkers (those who just know these will be worth a lot more before all that long).
There are increasing upward swings of this type following what I consider surprising low points..
I also note in the financial press more and more tech fund managers defending their stances to buy into innovative concerns in their conviction that things will turn.
If they are prepared to pop their heads over the trench edge right now given their livelihood and survivability depends on it, then I'm happy to sit in their pocket.
Purely a generalistic opinion from me as always, but always eager to learn and listen to nuances or even opposing views :)
Interesting concerning the continuing unbridled volatility still as concerns SMT and other tech investments. Given positive UK and US inflationary outlooks and the general opinion that technology will rebound on the back of halved inflation forecasts for the coming year (albeit not return to prior popularity), I'm interested to other members thoughts around this.
Light is indeed at the end of the tunnel I feel, but it is perhaps too far away still given the various factors (plus a significant proportion aof all investors always playing last minute for what they perceive that quick buck)?
As those who have read anything I've put on here in the past, I tend to hold SMT come what may and rely on little market savvy other than my conviction that a sustained rally will occur.
The Ukraine war is of course a variable.
It will be interesting to hear now when minds far greater than my own believe this might be.
I think the best advice as usual with SMT is whether you wish to invest for a profit long term or short term?
The driver of these poor times for SMT is basically high inflation (meaning future profits are considered to be likely diminished by the time the tech ideas being developed with the fund appear on anyone's table).
Fair enough.. Everyone rode the tech bandwagon when it was in favour pre Nov 21, and although it won't reach the level of value before that time in a hurry, I do predict a time (as people begin to even get a hint that world inflation is being cured.. as it will be) that it will make money (and probably fairly quickly as everyone jumps back onto the bandwagon)... Catching a rising knife is as difficult as one falling...
I personally have never sold any of these since purchasing a great many years ago (or any of my tech concerns). Sure, I took a big hit since Nov 21, but then still work out my holdings in all of it to be worth around £30k more than they were pre pandemic..
You have to be logical as what goes up also comes down...
Having said that I do (as ever) sympathise with those having bought just before the big drop, although my advice to them would also be to hold on...
The world is now in no doubt as to the ruck it is in and on that basis the negativity we see in the markets is entirely understandable. I view this phase as being in the dark part of the tunnel, but when the light appears (or when investors begin to even sense light at the end of the tunnel) I see no other eventuality than a significant buy in.
Its definitely a simplistic outlook, but I think it's fairly logical..
I'm sure others on here will add some nuances...
In short.
The OP can hopefully listen to all advice on here or discard it. My personal belief is that all written here is perfectly valid and worthy of consideration. The thread has acknowledged the fact of life that is individual investment styles and strategies.
Please don't think I consider your advice not great advice, Robleo. It is very good advice.
It is maybe not even inconceivable that the OP may decide to actually combine our advice (which is sort of what I was trying to get at)..
Either use the cash from the 60% sold assets to buy into the concerns you cite and allow 40% remainder SMT to remain invested, or if she has already earmarked the 60%, then maybe to wait for some recovery then sell the remainder then invest that sum as you advise?
Of course it is all about individual strategy, but do people come on here to listen to individual ideas and strategies in developing their own?
Well, yes...
They actually do!
Hi Robleo.
As you will see I agreed with your advice in the first line of my last post. My other comments there were trying to simply underline considerations that the OP may or may not have wished to take on board (much the same as anyone's advice including yours)?
It is always important to balance risk according to individual ability to absorb it.
I guess this forum exists because people wish to read differing approaches and (above all) to absorb the benefits of advice, of which yours is included.
My last post was offered in what I believe personally was in the best interest of the OP, which is not to sell the remainder of her holdings just yet. Not when the reason for its recent fall is one that has nothing to do with the quality of the assets in the AIC, not whilst the nav is sitting at such a big discount, and not whilst it is generally (now) holding generally pretty well despite the full horror of the inflationary period dawning upon the world.
My point (and it is my point and no one's other) is that I believe the only way generally for SMT at this point it is up. I could be wrong, but the OP needs to hear my opinion as she hears yours.
We either keep our opinion, knowledge and ideas quiet on this forum (ie no forum) or we add in our individual ideas and have clarified that everyone has their own strategy.
Perhaps by allowing and listening to all points of view and not attempting to strangle individual ones is the way up :)
Balanced post Robleo (always right to balance risk soundly), but I would say a couple of things in addition. I can't remember the number of individual "nests" within SMT off the top of my head, but seem to recall 53 differing concerns.. That's a lot of separate nest eggs.
The other point I have is that regardless of their acumen and ability, the concerns within SMT have been hit as squarely as anything else tech related, but not for their individual quality as concerns, but universally due to their short term profitability being shot down by the spectre of high inflation. Tech just ain't popular right now...
Given that SMT is a loosely tech based aic, then the management decisions may still be excellent despite losses. The management decisions of this team in the past have always been sound, and I personally believe will continue to be.
The security a collective concern fund managed by people whose jobs and future lie on performance to focus their minds has always appealed to me.
Think the number of concerns within SMT as the belt, and the management as the braces.
SMT would have lost as soundly as a other tech related concerns down to inflation had they even had the allseeing Lord almighty in the management team :)
I also have to agree with a previous post that the discount to nav at present does make SMT a good purchase option at the moment. The fact that this discount exists at such a high level really also underlines the unpopularity of tech right now, which is all of course down to inflation (but inflation WILL improve).
That all may sound too simple to be the truth, but I believe it enough to leave my life investments riding on it (even if it takes as long as a decade for them to sustain an creditable upturn). I have a very modest NHS pension to help me towards this in 2 years time.. I am lucky in that.
As a recent purchase Soulsister you have been unfortunate, and sometimes in life you just have to play safe or stay within the parameters of your individual circumstances, and on that basis I am completely with you :)
Understood Soulsister. As stated, all situations differ..
I do hope you hold the rest as the crux of recovery is simply the control of inflation which just has to arrive given time.
I see the world in a right mess right now, but exactly because of that see the accompanying requirement of change, invention, technology and solutions as being absolutely paramount and more important than ever.
It may take some time for them to recover, but I totally believe they will.
I bought tech many years ago on the basis that mankind never goes backwards but always forward in terms of technological development, and apart from the dot com bubble can still identify no point in the Nasdaq that belies this.
Things did get a bit silly during COVID as everyone piled money into tech seeing it as a safe haven. I could have sold the lot when prices started to drop, but was unable (like many others) to work out when the rout would end.
Every time in the past that I have sold on the flow of the herd I have regretted it, and so have a "buy for life and drawdown from it only what I need to live on" mentality . I of course know that this isn't everyone's approach or even possible for many. Watching prices tumble (and potentially your livelihood isn't easy).
As I have stated for months on here, that inflationary light will be visible in the middle of the tunnel at some time in the future, and then we will hopefully enjoy an upwards trend that mimics in reverse that which we have all just suffered. I do believe that we will do so taking all factors into account, and I hope that you do too.
I hope that you have an enjoyable retirement :)