Member Info for Walp

To me it's nothing more than outright conjecture written with a sensationalist slant. A typical piece designed to float the financial markets by forcing selling (later buying) activity. There is nothing in the piece that undermines the fact that there are a great many companies more likely than not to make future profits within its portfolio.
We must not also forget the fact of the steady increase in value over the last few months suggesting investors now have a tactile grasp on the likelihood of eventual recovery, plus the knowledge that smt's holdings will consequently be viewed as far more worthy and profitable investments in the future than they are now. There is a faint glimmer at the end of the tunnel now, and even the BOEs view (which the media seem to be viewing as heavily pessimistic... which it isn't) of a return to 2% UK inflation within 2 to 3 years time gives me some confidence.
I note the Nasdaq up today, similar trusts like ATT up today, but smt wallowing at near 2% loss, most probably down to this article..
That'll make a few quid in buying and selling activities for the financial institutions that deal in them for sure. Nice move :)

IE, as LLL suggests, don't expect this updated vaccine to drive up Moderna's profits.

Unfortunately vaccines make little money generally for pharmaceutical companies down to the unbelievable costs associated. They are just not profitable enterprises. I hold shares in AZN (Astrazenaca), and although they pledged to proceed to production profit free, you might have supposed subsequent sales might have floated them well, but the development had little or even negative effect on their profits (although AZN have actually outperformed the Nasdaq and are currently at more or less their all time peak currently (but for other positive developments & company decisions).
Despite this I consider Moderna a worthy larger future component for SMT.

Up again as sharks move in this morning and I think we all have to analyse what this means. It happens every time following an appreciable drop.
So who is buying in despite the Nasdaq showing a heavy flatline loss even at 10pm last night following the full and final (hopefully) global understanding that tech represents only long distance profits right at the moment?
Surely there will reach a point when those unable to stay the course or unable to resist brighter immediate opportunities have all ditched and the writing is on the wall?
The new buyers this morning are of course the savvy veterans who know a steal when they see one.
I've said it before and I will say it again, no one knows where the fall will end. Tech has been unfortunate but prices currently reflect the human condition (fear, greed and impetuosity amongst them 100%), and reality 0%.
The sun will rise and fall again tomorrow and inflation will be temporary. New tech will continue to be devised and profited upon as always (with more plentiful & immediate profits as inflationary fears peak and wane).
Nice to see positivity amongst us despite all :)

Isn't it a strange and alternative investment world we all live in? The moments at which we should logically least likely jump overboard are the ones at which we most wish to.
Losses in this game cone, but then they go.
My father (far better at this than me) always says that "you buy shares and buy for life".
Reflecting on where I am now having stuck with my tech holdings through and through and profited to date by over 500% (despite having lost around 35% in the last 7 months).
Yes we are down, but the point us that no one on this planet knows at what point things will level out or improve.
I see despite the Nasdaq being down around 1% that healthy SMT purchasing has been made today in the UK. Sure.. we have seen this many times before then dropped another increment within a day or so... but ask yourself.. Who are these investors?
The answer is that they are hardened and clever investors who know there is a potential bargain to be had (with future healthy profits) who are happy to shove their money there as they consider the likely return higher than the loss.
Is any more proof needed to convince those to stay who are able.
I stopped retirement and went back to work.
Sure, it's easy for me in the current medical environment, but it is always possible.
Time will pass and things will look very different indeed given just a year or three..
Whatever.
My father has invested his entire life and often states the following: "in investment 99.9% of the stuff I have worried about I need not have bothered.
The media that promotes fear is funded by the institutions most likely to make money off us by buying and selling activity.
The answer to this question imho?
Hold.
I hope my perspective makes sense and is of some help.

To sum it all up given lack of crystal ball, the only thing now to do is hold what we all hold. The consensus is that this will be higher one day within the next 5 years, the further consensus and logic much higher...
Technology will trundle on being created with the current conditions driving mega pessimism as investors default to early profits rather than later.
Yes. It may drop to £6 (spesh on today's news that US intelligence suggests Putin is planning on fighting in Ukraine for a long time). But selling on this premise given this pot will be worth a lot more at some indiscernible future I would consider very foolish given the drops already sustained.
Hold (and top up if able at assessed lows as practised by LLL clearly RIGHT, sell in a mass panic clearly WRONG.
Too easy to sell and dump in assessed greener immediate pasture and feel trapped into that one instead.
Catching a falling knife rarely works, so my advice is hold on (and don't look at prices for the next year or so if you cant sit on your hands.
No one should be selling tech en masses right now, but clearly they are.
Understood as ever those who have no choice.

Fair comment darrenp. Just playing on that thought though, who is closest to correct on the value of this AIC?
The US (within which close to 50% of the SMT investments are based), or everyone else in the UK and Europe.
The US is also the focal point of the pessimism re inflation and increased interest rates, which might suggest investors there view the reality with greater acuity.
Having said that, they may well feel better distanced and annured from the war in Ukraine.

Ridiculous pessimism (or attraction to more immediate gains pasture) may produce this looking at the eye watering drops today.
Not quite sure how they work out the net to asset value, but I see we are trading at around 13% discount today.
I consider the NAV (adjusted every day to reflect the concensus of value) to be negatively misleading in any case and a poor guide in times of woe. This is obviously because it reflects peoples perception of it's worth today.
I agree with the OP here. Current valuations are at ridiculously bargain basement prices, and even if they do dump right down to £6, that's one hell of a long way to return up to their actual worth.
At these times such sharp drops are less concerning to me.
I am just waiting for the sharks to arrive.

Not entirely sure SMT represents high risk at all, as it is a massive spread of worldwide companies that can only deliver positive future returns.
The price now does not reflect the future price for those who might ignore and hold.
Tech will continue to be absolutely required by a world that has always gone forward not backwards.
Agreed, China is a potential problem area for a lot of reasons, but having said that (like it or not) China is still a powerhouse for technology futures, and they will always wish to trade with the word.
Smt however holds just 19% of its holdings in Asia (not even just China).
People are dumping now for a myriad of reasons that are likely temporary, plus the most basic of speculative reasons (ie: where likely to make the most money short term/right now)!
I don't share the same longer term concerns and feel confident holding (not that at the current prices there is any gain in selling right now anyway, unless people need the proceeds asap).
These companies have not stopped developing insanely saleable ideas for the future that will ultimately deliver strong returns.
That's my opinion anyway.

I am with you on this LLL. It must always be accounted that the stock market (and peoples behaviour in it) really is almost a comical exaggeration of general life sentiment. Whilst it is easy to stay put in your seat whilst a few fellow sitters in the room start to look uneasy and slope to the door, it's not so easy when the infection compounds and the rush for the door gets bigger and bigger. The massive effects this has on markets is of course because unlike individual day to day decisions, investing is a group play in an individual investment supported by many thousands all in the same boat as us. We therefore get reactions as if driven on steroids!
Herd mentality of course drives this massively exaggerated mirror of real life, and of course pessimism usually outdoes optimism (given people are generally risk averse).
The fear of loss really is so strong, but we should all reflect on how we feel during such times versus how we feel when the worries eventually (and always given time) dissipate down to the extremes of investor reaction rarely being a balanced thing.
Given that there are no real profitable havens for investment proceeds left in the current environment, it really has to be the right thing to grit your teeth, sit on your hands, and wait for recovery (should you be able).
Basic stuff, but then everything is based upon these basic premises. The generalised tech being devised and built now will always be snapped up in the future as humankind will never stand still. New global problems and limitations will also drive the way that tech is devised towards solutions that suit buyers.

I an not so annured, not annoyed.. autocorrect blooper my last post.

Agreed with all posts since my last. I strive for optimism to battle general knee jerk panic, and find when I look back it was always the correct approach.
In terms of individual investments, I dont have any, preferring the safety of an AIC containing 50 odd individual companies with an experienced management team presiding over it towards its success, such as SMT. I do have a small punt in AstraZeneca who are yet to disappoint, but beyond that stick with investment trusts.
I am not annoyed to the suffering of those who have lost heavily down to the recent slide, myself having had to come back out of a modest retirement (I am a humble staff nurse in ICU). I packed in what was (and often is) a hell job once the last serious wave of the pandemic had passed because I could. I no longer can with any surety... Further to that I sold other stuff to buy more tech way before the falls began. I too have lost, but remain optimistic.
I am entirely sympathetic to those who cannot afford to hold on, but implore them to do on what I consider the probabilities of future outcomes so should they be able.
I remain grateful that my portfolio still remains at around 20% higher than it did before the initial pandemic drop, but try not to dwell on the loss of a great deal of money and my forced return to work down to this.
That's my personal story and I know I am lucky. Many are less so.

It must be remembered that all things are temporary. I agree with LLL on the basis that we face an uncertain future with the inflation, but transitions come and go. The Ukraine situation is temporary, and it appears Putin having his bottom spanked fuelling a countrywide invasion has reduced his wish list to creating a corridor via Mariupol to the Crimea, and aims to draw a border there after conquering the Donbas region. Hard to second guess hos real motives given his previous bare faced lies, although he will want some kind of settlement with the world asap in order for his economy to thrive.
The tanks will roll out soon enough with him declaring his objectives achieved.
By that lot I'm just trying to underline that things will change and that a rock bottom price only amounts to the sum of the worst possible fears of the worst possible future (adding in to the mix the simple drive for the more speculative and dynamic investors looking to shift to more profitable investments when immediate futures for an investment type look less likely to deliver in the short term... rather them than me as that entails a lot of falling knife capture which rarely pays off). All that adds up 100% to the price you see in such downturns having no real reflection on actual value.
It is healthy practice to just stare long and hard at the performance of the nasdaq over a great many decades every time the fear ramps up..
In a way, it gets easier for us to hold as the prices drop, because the further down we go the further we go up in the future.
I noted the nasdaq shifting down by 4% yesterday down to increased knee jerk pessimism, but noted sharks actually buying tech into the black this morning in the uk market. This always encourages me, as it suggests a lot of more hardened and less emotional investors know a bargain when they see one.

Agreed on all of that LLL, and it could become to pass, but then I have always found it a healthy investing approach to always view generalised investor pessimism as exaggerated.
When I look back on every rout from one investment sector or another within the last 30 years, it was clear from eventual outcomes (admittedly usually in a matter of days, weeks or months) that the generalised fears were exaggerated to insane levels.
Diversification is often needed in times like these, but one must also account for the investment running companies actually wanting volatility (as that's what makes them their money as massed investors pay big fees on frantic buying and selling).
I've shoved stuff on here before as goes the long history of stock market performance and recovery, and in the main it amounts to compelling evidence that those who stay in (even diversifying a little if necessary) come out smelling of roses over time. Even massive world events and crashes led to full recovery in time.
Agreed tech is in an unfortunate sector at the moment , and your perfect storm could be around the corner...
But so(as ever) are scenarios that could alter the path in other directions.
I'm going with history, but may be forced to diversify. I have resisted so far beyond flogging my holdings of PHI (largely down to my increased distrust of the Chinese given their evidential siding with Russia). That strikes me as a little precarious given their China rich portfolio..

I'm sticking with 5 years or less before at least significant improvement. Renewed pessimism, world inflation and fed hawkishness has caused this current dip, but opportunities to compound the pessimism beyond what we have already seen seems far less likely to me than likely.
There are also other factors that are actually not completely unlikely (such as another pandemic) that would again elevate the attraction of tech beyond other investment opportunities.
I'm whispering it, but in my mind we are probably still hovering around the bottom.
No crystal ball as goes any investment... who has??? Volatility is rife, but it's a better prospect than bailing with the current losses into savings at 2% (if you are lucky) coupled with inflation at 9%.

The unprecedented 6 months decline reflects the nasdaq and other similar AICs that invest in generalised tech. I suppose it has come about down to tech being a safe haven during times of a stifled economy, and so a decline as investors flick to pastures they consideredxsunnier once world economies opened again was inevitable.
Further declines down to high inflation and rises in interest rates that will lead to a lessening of values of future tech 9n the basis that the fruits will be worth less when they materialise...
All of these factors have driven investment in tech right down, but then does this reflect the actual value and potential of these technologically based concerns?
The earth will continue to spin in the same way and people will not stop working refining, improving, innovating and even investing in technological companies (even in aiming for improvements within their own sphere of occupation).
The prices you see today are depressed to some extent by the effect that high inflation and interest rates will have on them, but this is only a tiny proportion of the problem. The problem is actually down to fear and investor speculation given the current conditions.
The value of innovation and technology has not changed in value appreciably, just the perception of it's current value by the punters who invest in it.
Patience (and admittedly the financial freedom to be patient and hold) offer the key.
These concerns will be highly valued again, in time.
My guess is up to 5 years, but still I am well above where I was pre pandemic and so have little to complain about really.
Commiserations as always to those who purchased at the peak, although those selling now who do not have to for financial reasons seems a big (probable) mistake.
Certainly better in my mind to do nothing (or even purchase a few more periodically to further diminish overall shorter term losses).
Just an opinion.

Little as to how well they will work together (or not), I meant to say.

Agreed with your latter perspective. Of course public speaking is not a requisite, but the ability to work intelligently, productively and cooperatively is.
I maintain that we can glean little from that from the video.

I'm certainly with you in that Lordloadsoflolly.
I did however feel that Tom Slater didnt come across as the very best speaker, especially against Lawrence Burns very eloquent and intelligent perspectives.
It may have been Tom's (whose individual skill sets will be likely to be completely different) way of keeping up with that, and may indeed have been misleading in the extreme.
Let us hope that they work well as a team in order to maximise their profits and their own future (as well as our own).
I feel that this will be the more likely future, given the enterprising philosophy is promised to remain the same.

I offloaded all of my holding of these (phi) some months ago as I passed the loss limit I had set myself & assessed the risk of further/worsening chinese market regulation as too high. I was glad that I did given the drop yet to come.
The Ukranian situation (and China at best sitting on the fence, at worst yet to declare greater affiliation with Russia which could entail negative growth potential) are great variables to add to these issues.
If you wish for a longer term and potentially safer technology path, I might suggest both ATT and PCT (both similar AIC trusts) as spreading the tech risk further. I have profited much from these before, still hold my full investments, and expect to profit further from them in the future despite fairly heavy losses since their peak in November 21.
There are a number of shared companies within the portfolios of all three, but they do collectively provide a further spread of risk.
They are not as Chinese heavy as PHI.
The question is, do you assess that we have likely reached the bottom as concerns tech in the light of inflationary fears? Its anyones guess, but I wouldn't feel too silly investing more right now even if it had further to fall.
I may well purchase PHI again one day, but not with the current world situation.