Member Info for Walp

My sentiments exactly. We knew of the situation months ago and look at the losses and volatility since then. My prior notations concerning "herd mentality" and the infectiousness of pessimism (investors all trying to ram through the door in unison) are of course the real culprits behind it all.
I maintain that tech investment (especially in the inherent safety a well run AIC will provide) will always end providing a long term payback.
Will my comments curtail any further panic, consternation and panicked heading for the door in the future? Well.. I can dream on about that...
All that said, this has been a very unpleasant shock for a great many investors who obviously bought in thinking the bottom had arrived (many having previously sold the same and sat on the cash since Nov 21, I shouldn't wonder), and in particular new investors have my particular sympathy.
I have personally owned my chunk of smt unchanged for around 20 years and even to this day am obviously happy that I have. I did top up shortly after the fall as considered them worth investing. I've lost on that new investment, but am in for at least another 5 years and so have confidence.
I still note that the pre pandemic slump stood at 640p and the current price is 958p. When we account for the fact that the 2 year pandemic and other factors artificially inflated the value of tech, why should we be crestfallen at today's price?
It's a corker of an AIC and a no brainer.
My advice us simply this. It's a medium to long term investment and tech will always return in the end, so please refrain from any further heading for the door.. :)

Yes. Apologies. An obvious decimal error.
My points on optimism (considered worthy or not) were the crux of my post.

All of the above, plus according to Hargreaves Lansdown in today's news, they feel it likely that the frequency and degree of FED interest rate "may not be as high as previously expected" directly down to the Ukrainian situation.
If the rise is 2.5% as predicted then all good.
More volatility otherwise, but given the positive jump seen today then it just underlines that no matter how painful the drops have been recovery (more normal times) will always be positive for this AIC.

Agreed, Lukeytukki. That's about the size of it, really. I would say that he isn't unhinged, but is simply completely obsessed with attaining a Russia closer to his historical communist ideals and ensuring Russia does not shrink economically or politically down to the fortunes of the West (massively undemocratic, autocratic and downright inhumane as his behaviour might seem).
Whether the nuclear missiles go up or not, there is no reason to pull money out of any investment, however... What use investments in a nuclear winter...?

Can we all just take the time to look again at the full history if the Nasdaq? The dot com bubble was a notable anomaly, but was due to massive over belief in a single particular new technology. Losses were big if you were swept away and invested at its peak, but were eventually recuperatedafter many years. It was an all eggs in one basket (as in a wildly over speculated fast internet success) scenario, and does not reflect in any way where we are now.
Sure, tech has been over invested in the past (especially during covid where it was seem as a safe haven), much of the fall we have seen since November directly relative to the end of covid and opening up of other more lucrative opportunities for more dynamic investors... It doesnt make our holdings worth much less, but is more a reflection of market conditions.
Markets go up, markets go down.
Just compare the current smt price to that the day before April 20, 2020...
Not looking so bad really, is it??
War is good for investors. We dont want war, but the fact is that it really is...
I repeat that even immediate losses after Pearl harbour bringing the US into WW2 were completely reversed within 341 days (even with years left to that particular conflict).. and that was the absolute longest example of general war loss and recovery!

Global nuclear war means we all lose (the best investment strategy will be an under the mattress one given the chance of any individual surviving long term).
Should we survive that eventuality, Moores law alone says producers of tech and its investors will continue to make money.
It may take a few years to get back on the upward trend.
Understood and sympathy to those who could not risk keeping their holding of smt, but I see and have always seen a world in which people don't stop thinking and developing ideas & tech, more so even when world problems and adversities requiring solutions such as the current situation arise.

A final point and one we all forget down to simply being human.
The herd heading for the door is infectious, and investors are herd beasts. A tumbling share price is hard to bear, but will we ever learn?
It's almost always the wrong strategy to leave after the opportunity to diversify a portfolio has gone and the price has (on paper at least) lost so heavily. Especially within an AIC comprising of a great many individual unconnected companies run by minds far better balanced than our own who base the trust's profitability on their successes.
What I personally see at the current share price is a reflection of investors fears gone overboard.
I would urge all at this point to hold.
Just an opinion.

In relation to my reference to the 145 million Russians I meant to say that there is little point forcing them to suffer economically on the basis of one autocratic past dictators actions. Once this is over, I predict Nato will harden their borders and non nato countries will join, meaning Russia (under Putin or no) can do no more damage.
We can then relax most sanctions.
Should Putin be beaten by sanctions, relent in any way or be forcibly or democratically deposed, perhaps lessons will be learned and full reversal can even come about.
Arguable perhaps as too upbeat an assessment, but it all happened very quickly after Crimea even though Putin remained in power.
For sure it will be slower, but I remain positive.

I'm not so sure re the "Glory Days" argument, although the point is interesting. Only today we are hearing of required tech answers in terms of the very problems relative to Russia being cut out of the global economy (such as the cutting out of our reliance on their gas and oil).
Look at the entire history of the Nasdaq.
The human mind has always been presented with problems and the need for answers. Technology is the route to these answers and new discovered technology is always saleable.
Russia may well face sanctions now, but any step down will be reciprocated with a lessening of sanctions on humanitarian grounds. We cannot let 145 million people who in the main disagree with Putin's war just because they are Russian. Putin presides over everything in Russia in an autocratic manner. We punish with sanction right now to get him to relent. Once he relents the taps can be slowly turned on again.
Negative versus positive conditioning.
I see the argument but it only focuses on the negative side.
There are many positive sides and human ingenuity will continue in the world.
I believe tech has as much place in the world now as it ever has, and predict the nasdaq will duffer a significant blip here then continuing its inexorably ascent.
As it has always done.

Also, remember what these were priced at at their peak just before the early 2020 covid crash... 640p... given that, they really are not looking quite so bad at the moment given they are currently 860p... that's an uplift of 34% over 2 years! The price recovered quickly to 640p again around the 1st May 2020, and all that sits between then and now is a lot of temporary safer haven investing.. Nobody expected such drops (no one has that crystal ball), and nobody could reach into Putin's mind, and so here we sit... I think there may well be further to go, but any good news out of Eastern Europe and Russia (unlikely as it may seem at the moment) can only result in positivity for these.
It does seem hard to lose so much, but comparitive to the gains (admittedly only for those who have held for a few years), it might be harder to grumble.
Sympathy however to those who bought quite a bit earlier waiting for the rebound...
I believe for those that losses will be returned, but it may be a few years.

I agree it's going to be a long time before we return to the November 21 price, but remember that tech was always an attractive place to be during the volatile low interest covid years. We always expected a slump following any level of covid recovery and desertion to faster buck pastures... Low interest also won't be with us forever, and as long as Putin can keep his filthy fingers off the nuclear button smt will regain a lot given time.
Sure, they may go down further still (as they have for weeks now), but where to catch the falling knife?
Losses are so big right now, I'm holding for a recovery.. wherever that might be.
The only tech I'd probably sell right now might perhaps be pure china stuff given their current fence sitting and lack of condemnation action upon Putin for Ukraine. Declaring or implying their affiliations may lead to issues?
Smt holds Asian investments but only (I believe) around 15%? Given what they have lost already, I'm not sweating too much...

I thought buying into the stock market was a risk thing, so the trading standards thing is a joke isn't it? There is risk and risk and SMTs performance at the moment is shared by a great many other future growth funds (phi, att, pct etc).
It's not just smt.
Putin's rumbling at Ukraines door is the new causation of the downturn of tech popularity (the cherry on the cake following the high inflation stuff).. Having said that prices fall in the build up to a war or similar event, but ho up thereafter. Even the general stock market losses from the bombing of Pearl Harbour leading to the beginning of the US WWII involvement was reversed completely within just 306 days, and that was just following the day itself not the war entire.
Wars are good for the stock markets, or at least history show us that. A war will effect commodities worse but even those would recover.
A war or Russian incursion into Ukraine could also possibly coerce people to fall back into cheap safer recovery stocks such as SMT.
The companies within SMT remain excellent companies of worth who will come back to prominence when inflation turns again.
As others have said this is a long term return.
I have had to alter my retirement plans and even go back to working rather than pull out on my tech concerns, as I know they will eventually recover and go forward.
The choice us to either sell or hold, and surely we can all agree that to sell now amounts to lunacy.
More sheep are heading to the door right now down to perceived fears around Ukraine. Loathsome as he may appear, Putin is a clever poker player who must realise that to invade would alienate his country from wealth it badly needs. He wishes to stay in power but public discord will not help him in doing so. Western leaders are all helping him attain his demands re Ukraine and Nato by flaring it all up in order to distract damaging attention from their pure criminality, lies and general disgustingness (re Boris), or to gain flag waving patriotism to up their popularity in the polls (Macron / Boris). Its not exactly helping the situation in reality re the rhetoric, but is assisting Putin in getting it all onto the world stage..
I'm rambling, but all in all SMT will recover.