The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
Thinking about it, I have lost one third of my investment value so far I tech since November. I am waiting long term because I have to Soulsister. (It now isn't enough to retire as is)).
It was a disappointment but taken philosophically.
I've invested in SMT for over 30 years. Those having invested more recently (and I bought a lot before the fall in addition) I am sympathetic with. Really I am.
Can you expand on that Soulsister. BB?
Are you being objective or personal?
I'm absolutely not sure what you mean.
Money is only lost or gained when an asset is sold .
I'm 90% confident to my own strategy of holding (because I can and am happy to do so), but I also comfortable in this.
I am genuinely surprised at your clear bitterness and criticism as absolutely no one was sniping at you.
I consider myself a better person than that.
Had I been unable to go back to work I would be drawing down on my deflated funds and taking the hit, so absolutely understand the need for people to take their own individual routes.
You said you are "So Glad" you sold at an upper point in pricing yesterday. You are free to state that and free to do so as I haven't a blue clue as to your strategy or personal situation.
You could also be right in doing so, as the only outright certainty in life is death, whereas inflation correcting only has a likelihood of happening because it's absolutely in everyone's best interests.
I (conversely) feel the "so glad" that I did not sell, but hey... Choices....
Soulsister...
Who is criticising who exactly?
I absolutely criticised no one.
I had retired when the tech drops came and rather than take the outright loss whilst drawing down on deflated assets decided to go back and work, and not just any old place but back to the COVID in intensive care.
That was my choice, as I stated those selling at a time of their personal choosing is always theirs.
Everyone has their own requirements and priorities and I wish you luck with whatever you choose to do.
The point however of this discussion forum (to the best of my understanding) is for people invested in SMT to draw on each others knowledge, strategy and experience.
Do you wish people only to accept that they should sell or should have sold just recently, as you have done so?
Are we no longer democratic here?
Please continue to publish your own thoughts here, but please don't also make unquantified and irritable comments assuming that to suggest a contrary strategy to your own is personal.
It isn't.
Peace and best wishes.
Captain Picard. 100% agreed. It is emotional driven, but it is also driven by impetuosity (those "dynamic" investors all trying to catch hold of falling knives).
Many seek immediate gratification and profit via the markets, which really isn't the easiest task but is possible.
Having sold tech yesterday in light of American inflationary pessimism they will be the first to buy in again when inflationary fears lessen or quell.
Given that this is a given, I would rather eat my hat than sell any tech related concerns right now.
Captain Picard... Exactly.
It is down to people's emotions plus short term investors trying to wring out maximum profit from their investment bundles by flogging something that although they know will go up again in the future isn't doing it for them right now..
You are right in understanding that the financial institutions that hold our investments for us love and encourage buying and selling for the fees associated.
It is a big factor in how the media sensationalises their financial stories ...
Where there is money in it their is always someone to stir the stick...
Despite the losses yesterday (and possibly today as others rush out of the doors in panic), tech is still in volatile recovery.
My belief is that it will recover quite a bit sooner than the actual point that world inflation gets under control, as all it takes is for that eventuality to begin or to be in sight for investors who know the profitability of tech and associated concerns.
All down to inflation (fears associated and panicky ditching). Everyone has individual reasons for their trading actions, but what goes down must go up given that inflation is temporary and decent tech AICs are worth every penny right now.
I'm holding every cent in all of my tech concerns as I'm looking at 2 years from now plus (even 5 to 10 if necessary).
Massive losses today as punters ditch and slam into stuff that will profit them more quickly given the immediate future (and SMT didn't do as badly as some of my other stuff).
I see no reason to budge, but each to their own :)
Renewed pessimism 24 hours ago following the federal bank in the US stating further interest rate rises will be necessary to quell inflation.
We are back in the middle of the tunnel for tech (the light at the end of it pushed further back) and punters are selling it again to buy stocks they consider will make a shorter term return.
Values will return when inflation is under control, but then I predict a rebound once the savvy spot the bargain that it is (but at what point it will drop to this time is difficult to say).
Same old, and I'm not stressing.
Agreed feasible, LLL, but has never been an option as goes my personal strategy and I long ago made the decision to invest with SMT plus other tech & health concerns, holding then only selling when I retire or need the cash. Even despite the losses I incurred over the last 9 months I am still well ahead comparative to the low point prior to COVID.
I find that this has served me really well over the past 30 years, & has led to a personal profit of over 1000%.
No doubt there are ways to refine this strategy, but that (and sleeping well at night) mean more to me.
I guess I am an inactive investor as all the advice on high inflation was "hold some tech and diversify your portfolio". I did nothing apart from philosophically go back to work and although I don't think we will see the ridiculous highs of 9 months ago (we obviously knew it was overinflated), I am happy with the likelihood that up is the general direction of play for them right now.
I guess right or wrong, Smt amongst a few others has never seemed an in and out trading concern to me, but more of a slow burning far better than average profit machine.
I suppose we will all have our individual attitudes to it, although can justify no reason for me to change my personal strategy especially right now. No one is in any doubt as to the direction of travel re high inflation right now, and the current slow upward trend (following the shock a few days ago down to renewed fed hawkishness) shows some market opinion that inflationary recovery is not at least an "if", but a "when".
My best wishes to all as goes their individual strategies, however.
Yep. Exactly JK. Same thing as usual and totally representative of a pessimism that will correct to optimism in tech as soon as inflation reverts globally... Which it will.
The light at the end of the tunnel has been pushed further back again and those impatient and more interested in short term profits than long have jumped ship temporarily. Even before inflation wanes, and that glimmer of light appears again the types who have jumped off will jump on again.
On that basis and on the basis that the recent pluses we have experienced has to be repeated as inflation cures, my advice to all is don't be a ship jumper as in my opinion, at especially this stage of the game re-catching the knife correctly stands at pretty low odds.
To me it's nothing more than outright conjecture written with a sensationalist slant. A typical piece designed to float the financial markets by forcing selling (later buying) activity. There is nothing in the piece that undermines the fact that there are a great many companies more likely than not to make future profits within its portfolio.
We must not also forget the fact of the steady increase in value over the last few months suggesting investors now have a tactile grasp on the likelihood of eventual recovery, plus the knowledge that smt's holdings will consequently be viewed as far more worthy and profitable investments in the future than they are now. There is a faint glimmer at the end of the tunnel now, and even the BOEs view (which the media seem to be viewing as heavily pessimistic... which it isn't) of a return to 2% UK inflation within 2 to 3 years time gives me some confidence.
I note the Nasdaq up today, similar trusts like ATT up today, but smt wallowing at near 2% loss, most probably down to this article..
That'll make a few quid in buying and selling activities for the financial institutions that deal in them for sure. Nice move :)
Unfortunately vaccines make little money generally for pharmaceutical companies down to the unbelievable costs associated. They are just not profitable enterprises. I hold shares in AZN (Astrazenaca), and although they pledged to proceed to production profit free, you might have supposed subsequent sales might have floated them well, but the development had little or even negative effect on their profits (although AZN have actually outperformed the Nasdaq and are currently at more or less their all time peak currently (but for other positive developments & company decisions).
Despite this I consider Moderna a worthy larger future component for SMT.
Up again as sharks move in this morning and I think we all have to analyse what this means. It happens every time following an appreciable drop.
So who is buying in despite the Nasdaq showing a heavy flatline loss even at 10pm last night following the full and final (hopefully) global understanding that tech represents only long distance profits right at the moment?
Surely there will reach a point when those unable to stay the course or unable to resist brighter immediate opportunities have all ditched and the writing is on the wall?
The new buyers this morning are of course the savvy veterans who know a steal when they see one.
I've said it before and I will say it again, no one knows where the fall will end. Tech has been unfortunate but prices currently reflect the human condition (fear, greed and impetuosity amongst them 100%), and reality 0%.
The sun will rise and fall again tomorrow and inflation will be temporary. New tech will continue to be devised and profited upon as always (with more plentiful & immediate profits as inflationary fears peak and wane).
Nice to see positivity amongst us despite all :)
Isn't it a strange and alternative investment world we all live in? The moments at which we should logically least likely jump overboard are the ones at which we most wish to.
Losses in this game cone, but then they go.
My father (far better at this than me) always says that "you buy shares and buy for life".
Reflecting on where I am now having stuck with my tech holdings through and through and profited to date by over 500% (despite having lost around 35% in the last 7 months).
Yes we are down, but the point us that no one on this planet knows at what point things will level out or improve.
I see despite the Nasdaq being down around 1% that healthy SMT purchasing has been made today in the UK. Sure.. we have seen this many times before then dropped another increment within a day or so... but ask yourself.. Who are these investors?
The answer is that they are hardened and clever investors who know there is a potential bargain to be had (with future healthy profits) who are happy to shove their money there as they consider the likely return higher than the loss.
Is any more proof needed to convince those to stay who are able.
I stopped retirement and went back to work.
Sure, it's easy for me in the current medical environment, but it is always possible.
Time will pass and things will look very different indeed given just a year or three..
Whatever.
My father has invested his entire life and often states the following: "in investment 99.9% of the stuff I have worried about I need not have bothered.
The media that promotes fear is funded by the institutions most likely to make money off us by buying and selling activity.
The answer to this question imho?
Hold.
I hope my perspective makes sense and is of some help.
To sum it all up given lack of crystal ball, the only thing now to do is hold what we all hold. The consensus is that this will be higher one day within the next 5 years, the further consensus and logic much higher...
Technology will trundle on being created with the current conditions driving mega pessimism as investors default to early profits rather than later.
Yes. It may drop to £6 (spesh on today's news that US intelligence suggests Putin is planning on fighting in Ukraine for a long time). But selling on this premise given this pot will be worth a lot more at some indiscernible future I would consider very foolish given the drops already sustained.
Hold (and top up if able at assessed lows as practised by LLL clearly RIGHT, sell in a mass panic clearly WRONG.
Too easy to sell and dump in assessed greener immediate pasture and feel trapped into that one instead.
Catching a falling knife rarely works, so my advice is hold on (and don't look at prices for the next year or so if you cant sit on your hands.
No one should be selling tech en masses right now, but clearly they are.
Understood as ever those who have no choice.
Fair comment darrenp. Just playing on that thought though, who is closest to correct on the value of this AIC?
The US (within which close to 50% of the SMT investments are based), or everyone else in the UK and Europe.
The US is also the focal point of the pessimism re inflation and increased interest rates, which might suggest investors there view the reality with greater acuity.
Having said that, they may well feel better distanced and annured from the war in Ukraine.
Ridiculous pessimism (or attraction to more immediate gains pasture) may produce this looking at the eye watering drops today.
Not quite sure how they work out the net to asset value, but I see we are trading at around 13% discount today.
I consider the NAV (adjusted every day to reflect the concensus of value) to be negatively misleading in any case and a poor guide in times of woe. This is obviously because it reflects peoples perception of it's worth today.
I agree with the OP here. Current valuations are at ridiculously bargain basement prices, and even if they do dump right down to £6, that's one hell of a long way to return up to their actual worth.
At these times such sharp drops are less concerning to me.
I am just waiting for the sharks to arrive.
Not entirely sure SMT represents high risk at all, as it is a massive spread of worldwide companies that can only deliver positive future returns.
The price now does not reflect the future price for those who might ignore and hold.
Tech will continue to be absolutely required by a world that has always gone forward not backwards.
Agreed, China is a potential problem area for a lot of reasons, but having said that (like it or not) China is still a powerhouse for technology futures, and they will always wish to trade with the word.
Smt however holds just 19% of its holdings in Asia (not even just China).
People are dumping now for a myriad of reasons that are likely temporary, plus the most basic of speculative reasons (ie: where likely to make the most money short term/right now)!
I don't share the same longer term concerns and feel confident holding (not that at the current prices there is any gain in selling right now anyway, unless people need the proceeds asap).
These companies have not stopped developing insanely saleable ideas for the future that will ultimately deliver strong returns.
That's my opinion anyway.
I am with you on this LLL. It must always be accounted that the stock market (and peoples behaviour in it) really is almost a comical exaggeration of general life sentiment. Whilst it is easy to stay put in your seat whilst a few fellow sitters in the room start to look uneasy and slope to the door, it's not so easy when the infection compounds and the rush for the door gets bigger and bigger. The massive effects this has on markets is of course because unlike individual day to day decisions, investing is a group play in an individual investment supported by many thousands all in the same boat as us. We therefore get reactions as if driven on steroids!
Herd mentality of course drives this massively exaggerated mirror of real life, and of course pessimism usually outdoes optimism (given people are generally risk averse).
The fear of loss really is so strong, but we should all reflect on how we feel during such times versus how we feel when the worries eventually (and always given time) dissipate down to the extremes of investor reaction rarely being a balanced thing.
Given that there are no real profitable havens for investment proceeds left in the current environment, it really has to be the right thing to grit your teeth, sit on your hands, and wait for recovery (should you be able).
Basic stuff, but then everything is based upon these basic premises. The generalised tech being devised and built now will always be snapped up in the future as humankind will never stand still. New global problems and limitations will also drive the way that tech is devised towards solutions that suit buyers.