Member Info for waccybaccy

I've been tossing the current comms blackout over and over in my head again and again and I think my brain has burned out and gone as far as it can, and so this is my final opinion until the next RNS:

The SP has taken an absolutely massive hit and the BoD have appeared to be shocked/gobsmacked. Now, my reasoning goes that if there was some *further* "massive" news coming I would expect the BoD to be absolutely silent about it until an official RNS.
Then I asked myself, what counts as massive news? That which causes a 3-5p drop in SP given it has already dropped 30p (e.g. to do a share split for funding/wrap up the company and sell the IP) or is it that which causes a 30p rise? Clearly a 30p rise is much more of an event, and so with this dubious reasoning I believe that the BoD on balance probably/possibly have information that will lead to an epic rise.

This is the best reasoning I have given all the clinical data, RNSs and press conferences I can be bothered to look at.

And while I'm here, as InvestingWizard said, we have a "binary" dice roll here where it could drop down >50% or it could go up >400% (IMO). That's one of the reasons I'm in here - expected return (assuming 50:50 chances of each outcome) is 200% extremely roughly speaking.

All in my extremely amateur opinion of course! Do your own research and make your own decisions etc etc.

Yes, I am truly racking my brain over what all this guardedness means. The truth will come out eventually I'm sure... I can only assume he is holding tight until a bunker buster of an RNS to fire this into orbit.

I remain positive no matter what short term trends occur with the SP.

I had a brief conversation with the PR chap at MTFB today via email. Apologies if it is boring but maybe there are some lines to be read between. I've put Paul's name in as it is publicly listed in press releases of MTFB and there is nothing private in the exchange. Here it is:

Hi, I am an investor in Motif Bio and would like to know: has a date been arranged for the FDA follow up meeting to the CRL?

As I understand it, the FDA has to respond within 2 weeks of a request for a follow up meeting.

Many thanks,

Waccy Baccy

Hi Waccy,

Thanks for your email.

Motif is proceeding as previously announced to meet and discuss with FDA the Complete Response Letter that the company received. Motif will notify the market once the Company has confirmed the path forward. There isn't any other information that we can provide at the moment but we'd be happy to add you to our distribution list for Motif Bio so you are emailed any updates as they go out.

Kind regards,

Paul McManus
Walbrook PR Ltd

Hi there, yes please add me onto your distribution list. Shame you aren't allowed to at least say that a follow up meeting has been arranged - the knowledge that a meeting date has been set says nothing of the outcome.

Thanks,

Waccy

Thanks Waccy,

We'll add you to the list and update you as soon as we can.

Kind regards,

Paul

Thanks Strider. As I thought. I'll put in a safety margin.

I got in at 16.5 yesterday on the basis that KDNC have stopped selling after the 20% then 13% rise plus the very narrow spread of 3% appearing (narrow for BCN). My theory was KDNC only sold because they needed the cash immediately while the big PIs were still involved and that shows faith in the stock.

However, I have put in a stop loss. While I'm here, does anyone have any tips (opinions) on what safety margin to use with a stop loss? I mean, will my stop loss execute at precisely the value I have entered?

Thanks.

Oops got my maths wrong. $20m cash with 130m shares issued -> $0.149 per share i.e. 11.4 pence per share

So 11.4p should be the limit. Right, as suggested I will stop smoking the strong stuff for a bit.

The plummet will know no limit unless Secker gets replaced or financing sorted (not gonna happen with PS around IMO - he is a great miner but not a great fund raiser). 11p, 10p, 9p, 8p. It will continue.

On the plus side, given he has $20m cash (see http://www.bacanoralithium.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/31-Dec-2018-Interim-Financial-Statements.pdf) the share price cannot go lower than 6.1p assuming he doesn't go on a spending spree with Citi. ;-)

Nothing is happening. There is no news. 7% is bugger all for a penny share like this with a spread as big as the rise. It's been up and down all over the place. No idea why you are happy about this. Google "share spread" and read up on what it means.

I am waiting for the CRL follow up meeting which is when we will hopefully see a *proper* rise. (LOTS)

Yes, I too think it is the curse of KDNC.

And that comment about sacking Secker; I think if that happened the share price would rocket just on that basis!

I keep watching this fall but know my regret at not buying is just a few pence away.... probably.

I've got other shares I'm not doing well on but haven't invested in BCN yet. I am watching closely though. I too remember reading about BCN and it seemed to be *the* lithium stock that was going to explode. How times have changed.

Ooops my bad. Should have read it properly instead of just skim reading. :-{}

Indeed Newcrest are the ones bringing block cave mining to SOLG.

Tuju: I notice from your link that they say the PEA has been delayed by 1 quarter to Q2 2019. Is this true? Surprised there was no RNS about this. I think the annual report 2018 for SOLG said the MRE was due Q1 2019 (MRE == PEA??). Cheers.

Interesting though I note it is an open pit mine instead of the block cave job we have on our hands.

Just saw this on Proactive Investor:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/215348/asiamet-resources-rallies-as-analysts-predict-chinese-copper-bonanza-215348.html

Not sure how strongly it applies to us Solgers but can't be a bad thing. A storm is brewing!

Okay, so let's add on 1 week for GL to get around to requesting the meeting, then 2 weeks for the meeting request response = April 14th when the follow up meeting should have occurred.

Must be. I thought they said the follow up would be 30-45 days from the CRL? i.e. by 31st March.

I'm not enjoying the silence from GL at the moment but hopefully it is because he is working hard.

Newboy58: thanks for explaining. Yes it makes it much worse for share dilution so now I see why short term manipulations can be damaging long term.

Nice find Vascular, though looking at the SP I find it odd that there wasn't much of an increase in October 2018 when the drug got approved.

Also looks like they only had a ~60% drop after the CRL. How did you find this stock by the way?

I understand that it is worrying to see the SP drop due to people shorting, but if you have long term confidence in the company surely you won't care about the shorting as those shares have to be bought back in the end right. thus pushing the price back up to where it was pre-shorting (and hopefully above)?

To me, the reason not to buy right now is KDNC selling, and lack of any comms whatsoever from PS. Total radio silence is not great.