Member Info for Velo

Than you Kaeren, but think I'd much rather prefer to become known as a successful investor eventually; as does everyone else of themselves, no doubt.

No - no holdings yet - first became aware of NYCT in early April and first posted around the same time. Noticed the SP was in overbought condition, so thought the smart decision would be to wait it out on the sidelines and see if the usual happens and the SP drifts lower to come back into the fold ( it was peaking around 500 around then) but this being a 'hot stock' I wasn't confident it would play ball - but it did.

Only then, I became aware of the last Gap-Up and decided to pause and played wait-see again. And it did close. They usually shoot past by a couple of pence. It did - so I was contemplating my entry point. But it kept on retracing - and I convinced myself - holy cow - it's going for the next gap up to close.

I was actually at my screen when it intradayed to high 270's - and should have taken it - but by then I was convinced it was gong for ALL the gap-up's and have done with lot in one go! But it floored in the 270's and recovered.

By the time I came to terms that instead, no, this is going to pick them off one at a time, and not all in one downtrend, there was a distinct bearish feel to the new trend. Soon my initial trend lines confirmed it. Still wouldn't stop the slight downward trajectory and now my fav go-to trend lines also confirmed this was no weenie but a proper retrace.

It hasn't stopped retracing. Hence - I'm still watching. Will post when I do buy, but not yet decided whether to post regularly on here, as made the decision that 2,000 posts per day on here was too toxic an environment, but most of those seemed to have given up the ghost and you can at last hear yourself think.

Did want to post on what I liked about the past trading history of NCYT - for a longer term hold after Covid-19 becomes old news, but we'll see.

" there was a lower gap of 20p-30p to fill "
---------------

Good grief Atisha, no not THAT low! But you can see why I'd rather not detail it.

It's just that technically, there's is another lower unclosed gap, that may never be be a candidate for closure, may never occur.
If anyone looks for it, I'd confirm if they're looking in the area as I was.

Next Gap-Up is dangerously near if this trend continues next week. But will it, continue?
Friday's close suggests maybe not. So file that final, final, uber low under thinking out loud category :)

Thanks donnodertrader, I see it now after Googling the core text of your link. As said, I don't normally seek out opinion media analysis unless they contain actual useful data that's not been previously made available.

Off for a cuppa and a choccy biccy to read it with :)

Pretty sure I saw a post below from Seadoc, that he would consider closing his short if the SP retraced to 270. I immediately thought: Ahh I wonder if Seadoc is playing: Close the Gap-Up's? But when I rechecked the next Gap Up - it's below that, at circa a little below 220.

There are 3 unclosed Gap Up's.

Two camps of thought hold that price always returns to close the gap and then re-continue the old prevailing trend in place beforehand, and the other camp holds that they don't - it's just coincidence. I support the former even if it takes years to do so.

The last Gap Up was approx 14th April leaving a gap of 440 down to circa 379. That was closed a week later but the trend continued and eventually intraday'ed down to as far as the high 270's - So perhaps Seadoc was intimating that if the price revisits that low again, he will close his position on that?

I'm intrigued to see if it closes the next Gap which is stationed just below 220 up to 250-ish, and leaves me wondering is that where this downtrend is heading, if it doesn't disintegrate next week, and return to the uptrend?

Below that is the largest Gap up of them all - but I won't even mention it, as it just looks horrendously unfeasible. It's reckoned if a gap up has high volume when it occurs the SP is unlikely to return and close it as that's considered a break out / continuation Gap-up and only those gap-up's that occur on low volume (last gasp Gap-Up exhaustion) will get a revisit to close.

Thing is they all took place on high volume days so shouldn't get a revisit, yet the last one did get a revisit and close; hence my curiosity if the next one on the list gets a revisit - the 220-ish - 250 area of the 7th/8th April?

There is another large Gap up to go, far below that - but it is so far below I can't envisage that ever getting a revisit.

Just curious to see if the second from the top Gap up, of early April is the destination of this curious bearish retrace, or whether Friday's bullish performance signals the end of this down trending retrace.

" Forgive me asking an obvious question. If manufacturing capabilities is going up, substantially, why is the share price dropping?!
Very confusing. "
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- Price IMO is sentiment controlled, and not always in synch with fundamentals.

Haven't seen a post on the SP retrace currently in play.
Yours, MadChatter, is the first I've accidentally seen that refers to this now month old (and still the current situation) with the SP. And this bearishness has been visible since mid April immediately after the SP kissing the 500p area.

It commenced a bearish ultra-short term trend, then grew into a fully fledged short term trend - and still is.
However, Friday's close was magnificent and from candlesticks alone its screaming: Buy-Me.

However candlesticks are notoriously fickle and without any shame can be saying the polar opposite a day or two later. I prefer to follow the trends. And if Friday's close has any legs - it may be the end of the bearish downtrend, as you do have to take Friday's close seriously.

Notice the word 'may'. Re-examined the trend lines after that close and nothing disturbing the surface bar a ripple or two.

If this retrace continues, then the media will think up labels to stick on NCYT as the "reason". I'm not interested in reasons. I follow trends and pay no attention to 'reason'. Because if reason was infallible we'd all be multi-millionaires, many times over in stocks.

I did notice a very negative media article on NCYT that came out on Thursday that slapped a big "sell" notice on NYCT. That's a first in the media I think. And in contrast to that in the next para slapped a big "buy" on AVCT.

Their ahem "reason" for slapping a sell notice on this stock? I'll quote them:

". . . the shares have run well-ahead of the news flow, and we would be cautious about chasing the shares at current levels. Investors already holding the stock might want to think about locking in some profit. . . "
They then displayed a huge roundel in uppercase stating: 'SELL NOVACYT".
That might be a "reason" but not for me. Stocks do not travel in a ruler edged straight line, they zig and they zag; this is just a month long (so far) prolonged Zig.

Also there was mention on here of the Winnifrith hit job on NCYT. Can't read it because it's behind a subscription paywall. If anyone can post the full blog on what Winnifrith posted, I'd be appreciative. (I can then copy/ paste, if interested, the full article above which does a quick review of the 10 best bio tech stocks - as THEY see them as well as the NCYT review).
What I could see of Winnifrith's blog, starts off by bemoaning last year's full results; which are nothing to do with the new landscape - which was a big mistake, but would like to see if he has anything else - or just based on the old trading results.

I reiterate the SP is currently in a bearish downtrend. You'll drive yourself mad expecting stocks to show a reason. It's just sentiment fluctuating for a

I'm thinking that the floor is close at circa 350 - 360. Could be wrong as Britain's foremost Elliott Wave technician is going for 280's!

Whatever, risky saying that as all trends are all still determinedly bearish, so whatever I think is the floor will not be my (re-)buying in entry - that will be when the trend breaks to the upside, which means losing a couple of pence first, as insurance. I also don't think it will rise any higher than £6-ish over the next couple of years. That's all based on reviewing near 20 years of price history.

Also contrary to some posters below I don't think the current price undervalues HSBA at all. It's fair value IMO
I've all my reasoning and calcs to one side but tired out posting elsewhere, but if anyone asks me to back it up with figures will be happy to show my workings another day.

Held this from £4odd since 2016, and sold late 2019 for £6+odd. So no complaints from me. Original motive was as an income divi purchase. Reason for selling? That 20 year review instructed me :)
If I'd gotten round to it sooner I'd have been out £2 higher. But hindsight and all that . . .

You won't find a post on this forum from me before today as I've only ever posted on a small selection of my holdings over the years, but currently thinking and testing if that 280's has any validity. However, sticking with my 350/360 area unless/until proven wrong by the market - and/or the trends

PS.
By barely hanging on to 116 at close, I mean that I have 116.25 as the close.
So does Yahoo Finance & co. etc.,

But here on this site, LSE, it's showing higher as 116.75

Seeing as you've posted on today's volume gangstilla, I'll take advantage of your post and summarise the afternoon's intraday price action as I was debating whether to leave as is, or add a summary to my post below.

I posted below @ 2:07pm but was flicking back and forth double-checking prices and volume changes for accuracy, so in essence I must have started writing that post several minutes well before 2:00pm.

I mention that because as fate would have it, the volume accumulation changed quietly but with increasing strength, from accumulation to distribution from just a few minutes before 2:00pm and didn't let up getting worse and worse until close.

When I review it right now, it looks quite seriously nasty - it changed from that long morning of volume accumulation to distribution, right when I was posting @ 2:07pm and just strengthened all through the afternoon. And the price followed suit. (Even though not a single 5 minutes of SP action matched up with what the morning volume was displaying!)

It was circa 117.9odd before 2:00pm and once volume sunk into distribution, the price fell rapidly (as it usually does) apart from a transitory rise around 2:45pm it fell so that by 3:00pm it was in the v low 117's.
It let go of 117 by about 4:15pm-ish to high 116's and rapidly fell in tune with a worsening distribution volume so that by close it was barely holding on to 116.

So the afternoon, held no surprises. Volume and price were in synch. Which was the point of my post. It wasn't in synch all morning. 'Something' was intervening outside of the system in the morning and therefore a loss of perceived 'control'.

Volume then quietly drifted 180 degrees to distribution which means that price always falls - and it did. So no complaints here. It shows the mathematical modelling of that indicator is intact. Which just highlights the shenanigans in the morning.

BT was robbed of that certainty all morning from 8:30am onwards until lunchtime as it was a strongly increasing volume accumulation showing on screen; hence my querying what the hell was going on.
Any adverse media News should reflect in the volume too - unless MM's override and manually offer their own prices; which is my only explanation - manipulation. Not saying illegally. But usually volume and price move in synch. They did in the afternoon, but not this morning - why?
===
Re-checked everything and still standing with bullish short term trends for Monday - all with a bullish outlook.
Volume/price hasn't transmitted itself to the shorter, faster, trends. So, I'm expecting a bullish continuation on Monday. Regarding it as a Zig day, looking for a matching Zag next week :)

But blaady strange morning! One for the X Files :)
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BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend . = Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trends . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH

I heard the leader of that gang of monkeys goes by the name of . . . Caesar!

Was scratching my head wondering what I'm missing at the intraday price action of the SP this morning. So got busy with the posts below to let it be and come back fresh - and it's this:

Checking back, since 8:30am this morning the SP had dramatically entered a bearish retrace. Opening at 119 and cratering to 116 intraday, over hours.

Only thing is, since the 8:00am open, volume has been under notable accumulation. Accumulation had RISEN all the way to 1:00pm whilst the SP has done the opposite!

That just can't be.

What am I doing wrong, I thought?

Tree shake? Or those conspiracy theories of dark forces working against BT's true valuation LOL!

I then went on to get some data on those 2 posts whilst I thought about it. Came to this conclusion:

- If the volume remains as showing accumulation and the SP continues retracing, then a dam will burst at some point.

Checked after releasing those posts, and I think the dam started seeping water approx 12:45am. The micro intraday trend lines now support the price and it too, the SP, is now on the rise.

So what was the price fall from 8:30am to lunchtime all about, whilst volume was under accumulation?

Somebody allowed to get in cheap? Mates rates?

Neah, I'll just go with - one of those things. As long as volume registers as under accumulation I'm happy that the SP might recover from this morning's retrace.

PS. Just checked before posting and all appears in synch now. But the morning was well weird and didn't ring true.
In synch, which means if the volume eventually shows as distribution under way then I can't query it, only if the price then does the opposite and rises, LOL!

Day trading - deceptive & dangerous.

----------------------
BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend - Bearish!
Long Term trends = Bearish
Medium term trends = Bearish
Short term trends = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends = BULLISH

Been meaning to post something about this since the results -

The TTM (Trailing Twelve Month) method of calculating forward leverage of net gearing for Net Debt improved for the better after the year end results came in , considerably.

Before the results (and divis/net profits) were known, the Net Gearing for BT was at a dangerous 190% level, almost double the red flag warning level of 100% Net Gearing.

After the results it's come screaming down from that 190% (do you recall how it wound Avro up so much?) to now showing 130%

Now that's still undesirably in excess of the red flag warning. But that's massive work in bringing it towards being under control if the forward 12 months transpire as the TTM indicates it will.

Huge companies such as BT will need debt as a working lever. Market lore is that 50% leverage is entirely acceptable for companies without serious debt issues. Letting it rise to 100% leverage is a red flag warning area - and people will start talking about you - and not in a nice way.

So 130% debt leverage is no time to be complacent, but at least savour the moment of a huge positive!

----------------------
BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend - Bearish!
Long Term trends = Bearish
Medium term trends = Bearish
Short term trends = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends = BULLISH

Fleccy you ask is there scope to lock in the pension deficit reductions accrued in the year just ended. Couldn't personally answer that; but everyone should bear in mind that the pension deficit is not a linear metric (unlike debt; post coming up on that next) it goes up one year, down the next, and goes for walks all over the place.

So although last year saw the largest reduction, I didn't thinking the deficit issue was all over now, but did raise an eyebrow by the huge amount reduced, that's all.

From before the current decade long, pension deficit reduction plan was first announced in 2018, some huge sums (greater than those in the individual years of the decade long plan) have been thrown ad hoc at the pension deficit since.

So is it surprising that some of those pre-decade deficit reduction plan contributions, have helped bolster the rates, that have reduced the deficit in BT's favour last year ending?

Here's a demonstration of why the pension deficit is a) Not linear
and b) Unreliable in isolation to believe a single year has sorted the pension deficit for good -

Year ending = Pension Deficit:
2015 . . . . . = £7.583bn
2016 . . . . . = No figures (unreliable data that year?)
2017 . . . . . = £9.192bn
2018 . . . . . = £6.944bn
2019 . . . . . = £7.283bn
2020 . . . . . = £1.290bn

Locking in a particular year's reductions? Surely by now, someone somewhere, would have devised a cunning plan to do so if it were possible?

----------------------
BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend - Bearish!
Long Term trends = Bearish
Medium term trends = Bearish
Short term trends = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends = BULLISH

Here you go, I/Investo -

BEN GRAHAM RULE OF THUMB valuation = 749.28p

RELATIVE TO SECTOR valuation = 86.17p

EARNINGS POWER VALUE valuation = 62.83p

DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW valuation = 50.58p

TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE valuation = 44.45p

NET CURRENT ASSET VALUE valuation = 16.33p

NET NET WORKING CAPITAL valuation = 11.45p

----------------------------------

Simply Wall Street's Fair value = 177p

My P/E to Industry Median comarison valuation = 160p

--------------------------------

See? All over the place.

I much prefer my own P/E comparison method because time and time again it's come up trumps - prob because it includes market sentiment, something that's missing from the established methods above.

After my own P/E comparison to industry median's I prefer that 'Simply Wall Street' valuation, rather than any of the above.

Algo's - okay later; off for a cuppa :)

Thanks Wh/out,

Steppe Cement - yet another quality stock that the CANSLIM screen threw up for great earnings. Let that one slide because the trend was bearish from Jan onwards and still is
(but hmm looks to be coming out of a flat base - always a good omen if it is indeed a flat base exit)
then almost March and thought never going to take up this counter-intuitive buying in at a high, malarky if I don't get a move on this year. So bought in late Feb/March with SLP virtually days before a market crash :(

Just remembered about posting the total visits to the 100 border and I make it 3 intraday visits:

March 10th @ 102-ish
May 7th @ 101-ish
May 14th @ 99-ish

Correct me if I'm in error but that makes 3 visits to the border.

Don't think a fourth visit will be as forgiving.

So, no more visits to 100 please. Verboten!!!

( Part 2 concludes )

And there we have something. The whole FTSE market is valued higher than SLP and the industry that SLP operates in also values every Tom Dick and Harry higher than SLP. If SLP were to just be re-rated to the plain vanilla average of the Tom Dick and Harry competitors then by price to earnings ratios alone the SP would have to more than triple to 160p+ just to be "average"
- and SLP's balance sheet and trading accounts are anything but 'average'.

Simply Wall Street (10 free goes per month) gives fair value as - 178p

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-slp/sylvania-platinum-shares

I also have access to half a dozen valuation algo's but they are all over the place - but could drag them out of slumber if you wanted a variety of price valuations to chew over.

I just go with the prevailing trend, not the SP value. And the prevailing trend is upwards and onwards (Currently)

(Part 1 of 2)

" What are your thoughts on this as the figures I’m looking at make no sense as to the current share price. "

-------------------------

Firstly - it's a given that sentiment RULES share price - not fundamentals. Or as Buffett more correctly labels sentiment - fear and greed :)

So two things to hold in mind:

Fundamentals can be poor or good that's one thing.

Secondly the share price is independent of fundamentals; sometimes it makes no sense and that's because the market maybe is, rightly or wrongly, discounting future performance that often we PI's just can't see or agree with. TA and charts take care of telling where sentiment is. And accountancy grade fundamental analysis packages take care of fundamentals (not TA or charts).

On fundamentals I agree - SLP is top drawer, not a cloud in the sky. Don't know the management but I can tell from the balance sheet they are above average operators. So a good starting base if the fundamentals are right. It's not the be all and end all, it's the start. Make a mistake in your entry buying-in point and good fundamentals will always rescue you - over the longer term.

However, charts will tell you if those fundamentals are just being missed by either insufficient brokerage analyst coverage being under the radar, or the market has a dim view of certain sectors at certain cycles in time, be they political or economic.

So that IMO is why many lament that the share price makes no sense nor reflects the value in the fundamentals.

The linear progression by the SP using charts is also top notch for SLP. No worries there.

So my thoughts on future price? Truth is I don't go down that street. If the fundamentals are good I let the trend lines run the SP - until they decide to change direction.

I do though love judging a quick SP calc by the industry average PE ratio. And on that score there's a ton more meat on the bone for SLP to achieve in the future. The forward P/E ratio for SLP is a really low bargain busting value of P/E 2.39

- Have you ever seen lower? Cheap or wot? Or cheap for a reason? Are these sectors out of fashion or something (like recovering from a market crash)?

I don't know, but let's test SLP's forward P/E against the FTSE market and it's own industry average as P/E's have fallen dramatically since the big March retrace. The whole market average is a lowly P/E 11.3 (was 12 and 13 months ago) but still that's way higher than SLP, and it's own industry median is P/E 7.63

And there we have something. The whole FTSE market is valued higher than SLP and the industry that SLP operates in, also values every Tom Dick and Harry higher than SLP.
If SLP were to just be re-rated to the plain vanilla average of the Tom Dick and Harry competitors then by price to earnings ratios alone, the SP would have to more than triple to 160p+ just to be "average"
- and SLP's balance sheet and trading accounts are anything but 'average'.

Continues > > >

Thanks NigeCo & Carrington, wasn't expecting it to be 'that' dramatically bullish after I bought in,
but always possible when you buy into a rising trend - just so long as it's not nearing the top end of a rising trend - LOL.

Carrington - No not tempted, because my first temptation will be when any profit generated, takes my current running total profit back over into 4 figures; that's target No:1
However, things would have to look iffy to sell at that point, as I'm letting it run with the trend, until trend HQ issues an order to the troops that says: No more; it's time to turn.

As for topping up/buying in cheaper - I'm genuinely concerned about any further revisits to 100. Need to count them up (after posting this) as pretty sure it's reached maximum revisits before fate takes an interest.

As the old market mantra warns:
The SP can visit a support and bounce off and away up a couple of times without damage but re-visit it once too often - and it will fall right through it.

So no more visits to 100 please!

------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend - Bearish!
Long Term trends = Bearish
Medium term trends = Bearish
Short term trends = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends = BULLISH

You're welcome Stoodio. Only right I should reveal my initial buy-in tranche into SLP.

- As you are a holder of one of the lowest entry points into this stock at single pence and still holding, then I think I am on firm ground by claiming to hold the highest entry point and still holding - and that's 57p! ! !

Go on, any one out there beat that and bought in higher? Don't think so, LOL!

Bought late Feb/ early March and was in profit for awhile until the market commenced its big retrace.

Chose it from screen filtering of the 'CANSLIM' strategy - my 2020 methodology year (Google it, to save my posting length)

It also highlighted the excellent POLY too, for any Poly holders out there; but I decided SLP was the stronger on balance sheet metrics - but both are ace, regardless.

Getting a top-up at say circa 42.9 would have brought my average screaming down to 49.9 which would have pleased and sated my desire to get my ass hauled in, from hanging out there in the breeze. Fear prevented me from picking up mid 20's in mid March.

Trendlines told me to go for it within days of mid March - but brain was in a box at that time. No excuses - my eyes refused - simply refused - to believe what the trend lines were telling me about SLP. Doh!

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Beginning to think these recent regular peak and trough patterns are coming to an end, as they seem to be narrowing dramatically in the fall from the peaks. The SP is still trending bullishly and I only experct further gains from here until otherwise relieved of that opinion via the trend lines, but it might be on the verge of rising further in a differing pattern formation, as yet unknown.

But defo these past 5 or 6 peak/troughs episodes seem of late to be narrowing the downside, rendering it an obsolete decision maker, as the spread eats well into it if using as a top-up opportunity.