Member Info for Velo

Last 2 days candlestick pattern performance. The prior trading day's candlestick closed higher than the day prior to that. This close tonight, was even better - closing yet higher than Friday's and even intradaying up to 51p - which was higher than the actual peak close.

2 days each closing higher. Wrong direction for a bear run.

All IMO of course. Could be wrong, but I'm very doubtful now of it falling to low 40's.

I posted initially somewhere below that I was of the opinion that the SP would follow the previously set pattern of rising peaks and from those humps then subsequently fall into a temporary short term trough before rinse and repeating - because that's what it's being doing non-stop since mid April until tonight's close.

Wasn't expecting such a good day. Really strong.

It's caused me to re-examine those 5 humps and I'm more inclined to think it's just set off on a trail to it's 6th hump summit!

That was it, the trough! Was expecting a dip to 44p to maybe 42p max at most - with 40p being a highly unlikely visit as a scalded cat touch point - as it's the 200 day MA.

In hindsight, the first and second peaks hardly descended at all, and it looks like a similar effect tonight as that's what's happened to this hump. That was it - the trough - that 47/46 the other day - that was the low point, IMO.

Was expecting lower. But a strong day today has ended that - most likely.

So it's off on another hike. Said I wasn't happy that it didn't first close on 52p, humpff! Wanted a cheap top-up.

Re:
" Just bought at 114.94 but it may dip lower, so only my first tranche. Not buying on fundamentals. Prob only for a short term hold too.
Will post rationale later in case others sitting on fence to compare and contrast reasoning
- mine? Sentiment; trend lines :) "
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When I bought this morning, the intraday price action was in a downtrend. Daily pivot points suggested not much further to fall if it continued.
Couldn't wait as needed to cut the lawns et al, so took a small tranche with further top-up's to come if it pans out, and keeps rolling. It did dip lower, but not by much, so currently happy enough.

Long term trend lines (especially the 200 day ma) and medium term trends are all bearish. So what am I doing, going long?

- Short term trend lines joined forces with ultra-short term trend lines and both are bullish tonight. Ultra short term trend lines have been bullish for several days now.
Volume has given up on distribution and is now confirmed as in accumulation. So having a go. (Couple of other indicators are bullish also, but keeping this short).

Been waiting for a decent trend line to turn bullish and it's here now. So I had no way of taking advantage of 101 to say 107/110 as just the initial heads-up ultra-short term teaser, only. And that on its own is never enough.

At the moment not expecting anything seriously significant. So not a call to arms, just a bullish play to see what comes out in the wash.
Also my score is 2 draws. One win and one loss. (Over the last 3 years or so). The last reducing my overall gain to just triple figures. So modest ambitions here initially, to get back into 4 figure profit; but will run the trends. I want to more closely take action on my on trend line set-up's instead of watching from the sidelines.

So overall , nothing has changed with the long term view of the SP.
The serious longer term and medium trends are resolutely bearish. But short term sentiment is now bullish IMO.

Just having a punt. The omens are looking good - short term. Besides this is the longest period I've seen BT remain below the 50% relative strength area - it's just topping the 50 mark tonight and last few days. Checked back and can find only one other period in 10 years lasting this long below 50% so it's due a marked rise anyway.

The 200 day ma is sitting just on 160p and I firmly expect it to drop into the 150's even if the SP rises daily to reach it. So maybe a little bit of mean reversion is also overdue to encourage the relative strength to traipse into the upper 50% deciles?

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BT's:
Price to 200 day ma trend - Bearish!
Long Term trends = Bearish
Medium term trends = Bearish
Short term trends = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends = BULLISH

Just bought at 114.94 but may dip lower so only my first tranche. Not buying on fundamentals. Prob only for a short term hold too.
Will post rationale later in case others sitting on fence to compare and contrast reasoning
- mine? Sentiment; trend lines :)

PS.
They don't give a single figure for either revenue or net profit but a series of lows, highs and summarised with both a median and mean average.

To cut down on posting length I've averaged the mean and median for a neater appearance as the end result is a smoothing of the various figures, and close to similar as they show anyway.

Q1 needs no elaboration from me as their forecast looks dire.

They do forecast the full year to show £1.472bn Net Profit, which is still, way down on the year just closed of £1.7odd bn.

So gone is the £2bn Net profit for some years. In fact had dividends continued then that forecast £1.4bn net profit would be insufficient to cover the dividends!!!

So not a case of them making a good decision - more like they had no choice in the matter; just a pity they lacked the basic vision /foresight to see what tuppeny-half'penny media analysts could see what was needed all along.

Net Debt is forecast to run as much of a muchness as now, across all years.

The surprising thing is the future dividend reinstatement forecast - they run it years after it gets reinstated at 7p.odd per share as a permanent fixture - well into the future. So what investors used to get is now consigned to history and unlikely to be revisited for a long, long, time. Investors will get half of what they used to get in years gone by - for the foreseeable - and that only after reinstatement.

Anyway on to the future years forecast -

This year (2020/21) The consensus is for revenue down on last years results to only £21.593bn
With Net Profit a lowly £1.472bn.
- That's their forecast for this current year. Not good.
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Next year (2021/22) The consensus is for revenue to come in at £21.713bn

Whoa there? Is that an increase in Revenue over the previous year??? In what decade did that last happen?

With Net Profit following suit up at £1.617bn.

Okay Revenue is a billion down on the year just closed and Net profit is even worse than the Net Profit just closed for last year - but both show an increase over this current 2020/21.

Can't wait for the new 3rd year forecast of 2022/23 will it be the start of a new trend and the floor now visibly within reach???
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Well, not quite.

The year after (of 2022/23) shows Revenue forecast to come in lower at £21.676bn, so down on that year of increases.

With Net Profit showing £1.677bn - and there it is ! The dove with the sprig of greenery in it's beak. Net Profit increases over the previous year for 2 years running, despite Revenue being down. So is it more a case of a bumpy aeroplane landing, to find that elusive floor?

Here they are summarised together for easier perusal:

. . . (2020/21) . . . . . . . . . . . (2021/22) . . . . . (2022/2023)
Revenue = £21.593bn . . . . £21.713bn . . . . £21.676bn

Net Profit = £1.472bn . . . . £1.617bn . . . . . £1.677bn

Is their perhaps a potential 'lightening up' circa either 2022 -2023 with just a kink of light, maybe? Or is that just wishful thinking?

https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12020-21/bt-group-consensus-22-may-2020.pdf

BT (like many other companies) have taken advantage of Covid regulatory advice of not being required to provide forward guidance to the market for the current year, but that hasn't prevented the house brokers analysts from producing one
- it came out near midnight last night dated 22nd May. Why do they publish these so late at night?

Was expecting a consensus forecast update by next Friday night, as last year they did so on 31st May, but something made me check before turning in near midnight last night - and there it was - Have a look if interested and see if your view differs or chimes with my interpretation of the trend of their forecasts.

And it's the future years I'm more interested in, particularly the additional year (2022/2023) now visible for the first time, not concerned with the brand new (and terrible) Q1 forecast contained within.

Overall their consensus forecasts are appalling for Revenue and Net Profit with, perhaps, a lone dove flying over a lost ship at sea carrying a sprig of greenery in it's beak, signifying land nearby.

But terrible figures forecast in comparison to the woeful year just closed that in itself produced "shocking" figures. Check it out here -

https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12020-21/bt-group-consensus-22-may-2020.pdf

Will just finish off bits here and then post a summary of their forecasts, shortly.

Typo!
"a Net Profit loss" = a Net Loss.

6.4p? Then that's 2013 or 2014.
What first attracted you to SLP back in the day?

As just at that point it was producing a Net Profit loss - but never has again - just that year when you bought in.

" I’m in from the last crash, which is to say way below 20p! "

Kudos to you then, Stoodio. Well held.

If you mean the last 'market' crash of circa 2008 etc., yes I can see you'd be in at 21p, but if you mean the SP crash in SLP (of the 2014 - 2016 era) then yikes - if in at those lows you must have bagged the SP whilst it was in single pence!

Well done you, for holding through thick and thin as if bought in 2014-ish the accounts show a £5m loss in Net Profit for that year ending.

Superb trading performance from then on, from that day to this. The balance sheet metrics is a thing of beauty; should be in the Lourve as an example of what perfection in a balance sheet looks like.

Thanks Stoodio & Indiscipline.

Gotta ask - who on this forum has balls of steel? Did anyone top-up /buy at the market crash low of circa mid 20's? I'm done with reading guru's and my supposedly betters. I was transfixed like most in fear as the March crash unfolded despite me expecting a crash first by Sept last year, then by Nov 2019, then end of Jan 2020 and finally by May 2020 -so March caught me unawares, renderimg me impotent and I let the mid 20p's top-up . . . go riding by.

Anyone here top-up in the mid 20p's barely a month or so back?
If so please post a photo of your balls, as they must be made of steel.

Meant to add:
Despite all various trend lines/ moving averages being bullish, more importantly than those, is the fact that the SP is back to trending continuously ABOVE the all-important 200 day ma since late April.

Since the worldwide market crash in March, that's a hard thing to do, as it's far easier to count those stocks above the 200 day ma, than those SP's below it, as there are now far fewer of them above it, these days.

SLP is just such one of those - as it has been continuously since 2016 almost without let up.

- Now that's what I call a platinum performance.

" However, I wish the management were more public with their marketing / investor relations efforts! Stock would double! "

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- God, I hope not and hope they never do!

In my personal experience I nearly always find that ends in tears. Let hard earnings updates do the speaking.

Puff SP ramping is for those BOD's that are more interested in gaining bonuses from temporary SP increases instead of concentrating on the core business.

Earnings increases, is the ultimate arbitrator not puff marketing

" Albeit well aware in weird times charts are somewhat out the window :) "

On the contrary Stoodio, It's times like these that charts earn their crust!

First off, SLP is bullish on long term trends, bullish on medium and intermediate chart trends, and bullish on short term trends. What's not to like, one might ask?

Since mid March the short term trend has been bullish too, in a gently rising price channel, interspersed with a couple of humps akin to a family of Loch Ness monsters swimming along the surface. Each of those 'humps' has ended in a gentle retrace of circa 10%+ or so, until the next 'hump'.

Right now it appears to be climaxing at one of those swelling humps and looks to me as if it will now head for the lower area of the price channel, until (if it continues) it rinses and repeats that gently rising price channel, that's been in play since mid March.

It looks as if the SP is ready to roll over, temporarily, but would have liked to have seen it close on circa 52p-ish beforehand - for perfection - as it's not quite 'higher highs and higher lows' - but good enough.

If it follows as previously, then I expect it to floor in the low 40's (a topping-up opportunity?) within the next week or so, and thereafter, re-continue bullishly at the commencement of June.

Should it actually sink past the low 40's and close in the 30's then all the above dissolves away into mist, as a new pattern would be in play.

Fundamentals are top notch, long term trend lines the same - bullish since 2016.
A superb piece of price action history. What's not to like?

Just got to allow the odd zig and zag along the way, of which one is due imminently, IMO.

Late, so just time for a brief recap of 2 or 3 of last years key actuals v the analysts expectations for tomorrow, plus using what the Trailing 12 Month method forecasts.
(Incidentally the analysts consensus is for no cut to the divi tomorrow, but subsequent trading years they have pencilled in a cut thereafter).

LAST YEAR - - - - - - - - - ANALYSTS FORECAST - - - - - -(T.T.Method)

Revenue = £23,459bn - - - - - £22.871bn - - - - - - - - - - - £23bn+

Net Profit = £2.159bn - - - - -£1.983bn - - - - - - - - - - - - £2bn+

Net Debt = £11.996bn - - - - -£17.796bn - - - - - - - - - - - £19.6bn

Thanks for the fuller info on the S/Times snippet Riffgo. Might not have posted had I access to the fuller version.

I am wedded to points 1 to 3 in my post below. So will only be disappointed if BT step outside previous guidance that ran, all through 2019 leading up to this point.

BT is an ex-growth stock. So a dividend is absolutely essential to its core strengths. Pension funds etc., have mandates to drop certain equities if they fall below pre-detetmined dividend income levels.

A dividend by BT is ESSENTIAL!

Absolutely unthinkable for a cut that leaves a mere pittance of little value. It's not how FTSE100 ex growth giants are supposed to function.

- But all is change in the world gone mad in this:
Let's panic and bin the economy horizon.

Nige, That rumour I suppose will never go away with such a huge shareholding in BT.

The newsclip I posted the other day highlighted DT's plans for consolidation of telecoms throughout Europe under DT's direct influence, via acquisitions.
So yes a case could be made for that assumption, but everything I've ever read from Tim Hotteges and his plans seems to indicate his immediate plans lie elsewhere.

Something in the News click button above that irks. It involves my regard/and or opinion of BT management surrounding the dividends. The OFFICIAL line in both the media and in RNS has been as follows:

1) This year's dividend (for results published on Thursday) will be paid in full, unaffected by any future dividend decisions or reviews.

2) A review has been agreed to take place in the following trading year (this one that started at the beginning of April). And that was it - just a review, not them forecasting a particular % cut - just a review without bias.

3) The media speculated all 2019 and pre-Covid, that a 5p divided cut (a cut of 1/3rd) is probably needed but the board are split, so agreed a compromise - no divi cut (for the year just ended) but a dividend 'review' in the new trading year.

(In the Sunday Times snippet below the media now speculate that 5% cut has been raised to a possible 8% cut suggesting the review is already done and dusted).
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I inferred from that (1 to 3) - a review date would be announced.

I now have doubts as to the veracity of ethics involved as often some 'new' media attributations often come from the horses mouth in a: you didn't hear that from us, in a kind of nod and wink, way.

I say that because here's a quote from yesterday's Sunday Times (only a snippet as it's pay walled)
[Capitals mine for highlighting] -

" The City is braced for a cut to BT's £1.5bn dividend - a move that would send pain through its army of retail shareholders after a wave of blue-chips slashed payouts amid the Covid-19 crisis. THE BOARD MEETS THIS WEEK TO DECIDE whether to keep the dividend, one of the 20 biggest in the FTSE 100 index. More than 40 leading companies have cancelled billions in payouts this year, according to the broker Peel Hunt, including all the banks. Shell stunned the market by cutting its dividend by two-thirds on Thursday. - Sunday Times "

Well it is now the new trading year so I suppose a meeting this week 'is legitimate', but THIS WEEK?!?

If they can postpone for a full 12 months the review about divis then I would have expected this week to be all about the results and plans going forward and when mention of a date for the final dividend is made, then that would be the space to announce that a review was now about to take place and any subsequent decisions would be made publicly in the coming days or next week.

If the cut is announced this week then was there ever a genuine review only?
In other words the cut was decided a year ago and only delayed to placate opposing board members?

But I'm jumping ahead of events. Will refrain from that thought until all clear on Thursday.

About a month or so back read an article that in passing mentioned, as an aside, that BT operated in the most fiercely competitive telecoms market of any telecoms market anywhere in the world - Europe.

Didn't know that; idly assumed it would have been anywhere else but on our doorstep.

Telefonica (mentioned in the tie-up below) is one of the world's largest telecoms company and Tim Hotteges of DT won't like them moving up a notch, on 'his' patch as his side have said and repeated - for years, that they are more than pleased with their huge shareholding stake in BT.

His departure in a fortnight from BT's board is for no other reason than to consolidate DT's power in Europe (and the US) and has a huge cash chest for acquisitions on the continent. I don't think BT is without allies in this. DT has world domination plans and its proxy in the UK is through BT. That set-up should be viewed as a co-operative partner and not a possible acquisition target being stalked.

If new partnerships and tie-up's "seriously" threaten BT I would not at all be surprised to see DT skirting nearly around Ofcom to put its oar in.

If, indirectly, these 'new threats' threaten DT's ambitions, then support from DT may appear to be in BT's benefit but it will be self-serving in DT's own interests.

BT, IMO does not face these threats alone.

Did everyone pick upon Tim Hottges the DT CEO relinquishing his seat on BT's board in yesterday's RNS - and in the news media on the other above button?

He's installing one of his subsidiary chief execs in his place on BT's board,
as he has very aggressive plans for consolidating Europe's telecoms, by acquisitions and partnerships with DT.

Already No:2 in the USA he's said he intends being No:1 over there too, so out goes his duties with BT. He has the cash available too.

He's spoken up very, very, defensively on BT's behalf with past battles against Ofcom. The future based on his current desires, probably involves joint
participations and joint partnerships with BT as too expensive the old acquisition route. As per his acquisition plans for expansion in Europe -

https://www.capacitymedia.com/articles/3825226/deutsche-telekom-ceo-h-ttges-considers-european-acquisitions