Member Info for Velo

Fleccy why, why, do you take any notice of anyone purporting to be a successful investor after telling you, that you are not diversified enough - then has the sheer audacity to list a series of stocks as recommendations - all of which are FTSE100 constituents. No diversification - all large caps -and he lectures you on diversification!

That person suffers from a dysfunctional personality disorder, you do know that don't you?

- He compares the world's greatest economy that enjoys a GDP of $21.4 trillion (so large that China which is second to the USA is way, way, down at $14.1 trillion) to the UK which in 6th place is worth $2.7 trillion - and would have you believe that a $2.7 trillion GDP economy should faithfully follow the world's largest economy of $21.4 trillion GDP! He's nuts! Out of his tree. How on earth anyone can compare such a tiddler to the US and say we should more closely mirror the US market's rise and fall over the past decade or so - and should do no worse %wise, than they do, is beyond belief! Staggering ineptitude. His conclusion for the FTSE performance? - MIB conspiracy theory!

Well, suppose it's a charitable compassion of the week, to give such delusional charcters who visit this forum the time of day.

He lists BT as his top loser on his stocks to avoid - yet strangely has decided to live on the BT forum. Got squirrels juggling knives in his head, that one.

Fleccy, got a link for you on why VOD might be down worse than BT today etc.,
- They've had some bad news about a big contract they're negotiating with Disney that's gone t!ts up due to back-stabbing Telifonica who have history (bordering on criminality) of dirty dealing and pulling the rug from under VOD for some years now.
- they're that angry they've lodged a formal complaint with the Spanish regulator CNMC authority.

VOD just can't catch a break - see here - only came out last night (and impacted VOD's SP today?).

https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2020/03/10/vodafone-objects-to-disney-telefonica-deal/

(Concludes 2 of 2) -

- You think 50% cut would be better - and see the SP rising to £2 on bullish sentiment?

- The dividend payout and whether it should be cut is a red herring IMO - it is not THE central issue/s.

It's sticking plaster solution, that won't even touch the sides. Hence the acute debate by the BOD only agreeing to postpone and re-evaluate from the new trading year that starts in April. If pressure builds they probably might.
But ex-growth company's put a lot of emphasis on good dividend yields as their main appeal. Take that away from an ex-growth FTSE100 company and what are you left with? It's why companies such as Shell get bandied about as never having cut the dividend since the second world war - they want the big pension funds to stay committed.

Personally I don't think the cutting of the dividend would solve any problems, except perhaps convincing the big money men that BT are serious about austerity cuts and therefore are a good future loan risk.

- But that £500m per year as solving BT's issues? Meh, don't think so. So whether they cut it or not is secondary to me. I would not base a buy/sell decision on whether the divi gets cut or not. The market could get it's knickers in a right twist over this. It's not the be all and end all, to BT's problems/issues. Merely a side-show.

Also don't become anchored to £2 as a go-back to price - just because. Give analytical reasons.
(Consensus analysts forecasts support you, by the way, with a forecast SP for this year of £2.15)

Myself I think currently the 170's is a stronger area than £2 - it's the Fibonacci 61.8% point retracement level (drawn, starting from the low of the ashes in the 2009 crash to BT's high since that date; a bit ancient but has worked before for me from that date) it's also, the current 200 day moving average area too.

Other than that I have nothing for 200 except that it's a fat round number.
Can use a couple of valuation metrics to come up with a valuation higher than £2 - so why is £2 a target?
Does the market know it's a target? :)

(1 of 2 posts)

Busy and probably more so, maybe for 2 weeks starting next Tuesday. So, knew there were a couple of questions (some with my name mentioned specifically) so trawled through to find them to clear any backlog.

2 from Avro, but first up was this one:

Fruitster @ 'Black Monday' and:
" Is 120 quite a big support level on the long term chart? "

I assume that was directed at me Fruister, because of the mention of the 'long term chart'?
Well wouldn't call it "quite a big support" but it is a support (actually two) from way back, if one wanted to make such a case. A double support from circa late summer 2011 and further back in spring 2006. Both draw straight through right to 120 today. The SP is so low that all key major supports have long been overcome by the SP. Only with hindsight can we convince ourselves 120 was there all along if it does subsequently turn out to be the case.

- I would never choose to make a final decision on such evidence. BT devours supports for breakfast.

---------------------

Avro @ 'Velo is this the turnaround' and:
" BT for the very first time is rising ahead of the FTSE Is this the beginning of the turn around. Or just a pause for breath? "

'BT for the very first time is rising ahead of the FTSE Is this the beginning of the turn around'
- Insufficient on it's own to draw such a conclusion IMO. If it does turn out to be the case I'd chalk it up to coincidence unless you have some proven strategy that suggests otherwise.

" . Or just a pause for breath? "

- ditto. Impossible to say. Again coincidence if it does turn out that way.

---------------------------

Avro today @ ' RE: Why I’d buy the BT share price’s 8% yield in this FTSE 100 crash' and:
" Interesting 3 months ago the market was expecting a 20-25% dividend cut now we are talking 30-35%. In my opinion it should have been cut 2 years ago by 50%. With a 50% cut BT will still be yielding 6.5%. I believe that would build investors confidence in management and the share price will respond positively. I can then see the share price going up to £2 in a relative short time. At £2 BT would still have a healthy 3.8% yield.
Velo I would be interested in your view."

Here it is, then -

" Interesting 3 months ago the market was expecting a 20-25% dividend cut now we are talking 30-35 "

- All I've ever read, is of media analysts speculating on a dividend cut of a third. So looked at last years divi payout (£1,504m) and a third off, is a neat £500m leaving a round £1bn for divis to be paid out and thought the 33.3% cut is a fits-like-a-glove-speculation, because it gives nice fat round numbers.

- You think 50% cut would be better - and see the SP rising to £2 on bullish sentiment?

The dividend payout and whether it should be cut is a red herring IMO - it is not THE central issue/s.
(Continues > > >

Yes, 122.34 on opening; slight positive change to the pivots, doesn't matter that much really but will show the full monty as done it now anyway.

Supports:

117

114

106

------------

Resistance:

125

129

136

-----------

Actual pivot point is 121 so anything to the upside of 121 is welcome whatever lies in store today.

Futures pointing towards potentially a bullish day today in all world  markets. If so, might BT partake in the relief? It can't all be down days without a blue day interspersed here and there.

In volatile circumstances such as these it's handy to have some ports in the storm intraday, to help steady a view on whether a price will improve much or drift back.

So intend updating the pivot points once an open price is established at 8:00am as previously haven't bothered to complete the formulae by adding the the open price as it can alter things a little, but not greatly. So will re-post today's pivot points once the market opens with the data updated to  include the opening price.

"Velo
What part of 68p dont u understand?"

- The computer says no.

"This I fear is just the beginning."

Not quite (but almost) onboard with that view yet, unless the DOW drops at least 30% from it's all time high of mid Feb, AND all within 3 months max, which would mean a DOW index of 20,650
(currently 23,800-ish - was 29,500 in mid Feb)

----------------------

I appreciate your "predictions"

- They're not predictions, they're based on New Yorker's 'the pit' traders pivot points, from before the age of the computer and a guide to help, feel how strong a particular trend s - in either direction.

If the SP holds intraday around 116 the down trend is gentle - 106 and the SP is strong as hell, and likely more to follow subsequently.

At the opposite end above 124 - are 129 and 136 intraday resistances. So if a big bounce gets underway tomorrow it's saying 136 is not out of the question.

With a spread from 106 to 136 how could an investor possibly know as a prediction?

Guides for intraday only, to gauge strength - be that bearish or bullish.

Going into Tuesday.

It's no use dwelling on today's price action. The market is trying to bake-in new factors for the future against all stocks. Instead, it would appear to be panicking, so 'fair' value doesn't come into it.
(Analysts consensus update is well overdue, so beginning to fear how much of the latest world news events will impact their forecasts).

Well from the open, there was no chance for UK stocks, and closing at 120 in one giant leap from the last trading day has sealed BT's fate with the pivot points for tomorrow, Tuesday.

This is what's showing up on the screen for tomorrow -
Take your pick for intraday supports, all in the 100-teens (and lower) =

116

114

106

--------------------

A close on 124 resistance tomorrow would stop the current rot.

(121 is the pivot point so closing on any crumbs above 121 will do for me, ta - as a minimum).

After day after day, of deep falls, can it really be heading for the 100-teens or worse, tomorrow?
- Surely time for a zag to the zig?

Can't believe it'll do a back-to-back day of skipping over several supports in one leap again. Supposed to be an uncommon event, so you could excuse the SP today - Don't think it'll do that again, so perhaps maybe no further than the higher end of the 100-teens tomorrow?

Yep first suspension triggered. S&P500 has just shut down - for 15 minutes. Got any spare biccy's Fleccy? Throw us a packet over will you?

Bugger I'm out of biscuits too.

US running at just under 7% down. Not one full minute gone but world pressure is 7% down is "enough"

Right it's started. The world has mass settled at 7% down today. It's the US v the world. Come on US - 7% down is enough. Shut yer trap even thinking of worse. Seconds out......

Potential other routes of comparison show the US may open no worse than 7% down which is exactly where all the World markets including ours, sit today, as does BT itself this moment. So a flicker of a chance that BT's SP stays put and no lower or FTSE for that matter.

Whatever, no further speculation needed as we'll all know in 10 minutes or so.....

Half an hour to go. Got the US TV finance channels on. It's like being at the latest brand new disaster movie release. Should have got a box of popcorn in!

Rooster - just one correction should they suspend trading in the S&P500 today.

The second potential suspension will be triggered if a 13% fall - not 15% as I posted.

They're repeating it over and over on the TV channels so it's a new thing for them also - as it was to me.

Oh yeah 1:30m today (thanks) for US open? Forgot about that. Had an email about it but deleted it after reading.

So we get tested by the US influence in an under an hour not from 2:30pm our time.

So 1:30pm until we change our clocks in a few weeks time - then back to 2:30pm our time.

Good question Rooster.

The futures are on lockdown because they hit a 5% fall trigger. Once the markets open at 2:30pm then the true state of affairs will be revealed.

However, something that perhaps the typical US home investor may not know is that a new system may be triggered today on the S&P500.

If in the first 15 minutes the S&P falls 7% then trading will be suspended for 15 minutes.

Once restarted should the falls continue to 15% decline then the market will once again be suspended for a further 15 minutes.

And again once that period is re-started and the market falls 20% this time, the entire S&P 500 market will be suspended for the rest of the entire day!

It's just been announced on US finance channels.

(fat finger; hadn't finished)

In the other direction today's first resistance is given as 132p. (Yeah, right).

PS. 121 is a one day pivot-point related support. It all changes after close tonight.

Today's are (as posted end of last week) 128, 125, 121 )

I

With US futures markets on lockdown (We're taking our ball home if you won't let us win) it's interesting how we and Europe's markets have pulled back from the opening low's - now there's no US influence - at least until 2:30pm where no doubt, taking your ball home, may not prevent the US, at least initially, behaving as ours and Europe did on opening.

Just a few minutes before FTSE opened I could see, astonishingly, futures predicting it to open in the high 5,000 !!! as it was showing 600+ points down, effectively a double % down!

Right now FTSE has recovered back to just over 6,000+ and 400 points down (395 as I type).

However the SP is back testing 121. Interesting that 121 is holding and supporting so far, next up intraday support is 125. So seeing it at 126 briefly, raised hopes. But it does look as if it's happier bouncing between 121 and the next support up 125.

Live price 122 currently.

Fingers crossed 121 doesn't give way after 2:30pm