Member Info for Velo

Overnight:

" Futures trading in Wall Street’s benchmark S&P500 index of leading companies was suspended when losses reached the so-called “limit down” of 5%. "

Just out -

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/panic-hits-global-markets-amid-060001750.html

" Stock markets in Europe and the United States are braced for their biggest falls since the 2008 financial crisis after the start of the trading week saw panic selling amid the double threat of a coronavirus-driven global recession and an oil-price war.

The FTSE100 is projected to plunge by 6.3% when trading begins on Monday morning, while the Dow Jones industrial average is on course to lose 4.9% in New York.

It follows huge losses on Asian markets on Monday where fears about the worsening worldwide economic slowdown were exacerbated by the shock decision by Saudi Arabia over the weekend to increase oil production in an attempt to drive competitors such as Russia and the US out of the market...... "

Well the panic sell-off in the futures has not dissapated away overnight.

DOW futures suggest it's on course to either create another record day or equal the new record created just days ago. FTSE looking like it too is heading for a record one day sell-of too.

Was hoping the far east, who's markets open first, might offer some respite but today Monday, looking likely to open as a real stinker.

Only just gone over a half an hour into the start of the futures week and the algos look in full panic mode. Too early and need several hours really but initially looking terrible for tomorrow :(

Geezus! It looks in full meltdown. Awful sight. Hoping it's all a technical electronic glitch.

Should have gone straight to bed.

1997 Bird Flu, forecast to kill millions.

1999 BSE (mad cow disease) forecast to kill 500,000 (177 died)

2003 First Sars outbreak reported as " 25% chance of killing tens of millions".

2006 Bird Flu flares up again, now declared the "first pandemic of the 21st century"

2009 Swine flu in the UK. The chief medical officer said "65,000 could die" in the UK .
138 died - but 540,00 people caught it.
(Half a billion spent in the UK on stockpiling a vaccine but it soon become unusable as it deteriorated so quickly).
In the US 61 million were infected - 12,469 died.

Seeing reports elsewhere unsubstantiated of 575,400 (!) dying worldwide of swine flu but also seeing this:
The Council of Europe’s health committee chairman described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as " one of the greatest medical scandals of the century". (Some deaths were incorrectly attributed to Swine flu).

" research suggests that mortality rates are much lower than in 20th century flu pandemics". (NHS source)

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Those forecasts were for the worst case scenarios which never came to pass. Don't think they were scaremongering, just the worst case outlook if things truly get worse.

Mother Nature will step in when she sees fit, and remind us humans how puny we are.

This virus has a higher mortality rate, but doesn't mean the worst case forecasts for deaths automatically follows. Otherwise It would truly would be a case of being 'different this time'.

In investing the worst thing you can ever say is " but it's different this time". It never is.

(Apart from Spanish flu and the plagues) What did they say about all the other viruses over the past 50 years and what are they saying about this one? The same phrase. Mathematically and medically they were logically on the right thinking - then nature took it's own course and had other plans against human future projections for each of virus.

Roast toast.

Fleccy - but not in Africa where they are described as in general the populations have fragile health and the fear is once Africa goes down we're all roast. But Africa escaping the headlines so far.

Smartypants - isn't it a given that in general, flu viruses breed/spread best in winter? I'm writing you a prescription now, take it to your chemist and ask for a packet of high season summer months.

I think the virus will die out from May where with the warmer summer weather, the virus will die out. After the algos self learn from the current crisis they will be wrong footed yet again. They have not been programmed about handling situations like this epidemic. A lot of the volatility is algos reacting on standing programmed responses. Not me saying that last sentence but industry pros.

Just seen a news report that the govt is to announce sweeping changes to combat the Coronavirus epidemic.

Tsk! So now you've got to add yard brushes, dustpan and brush sets, to toilet rolls when panic buying.

Ha! hee, LOL! Yes, kicked in the genetals, it certainly has felt like that this past week or two.

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Denby, here's the mantra used to remember what's the best action to undertake when the VIX is at either extreme end of the Volatility Index:

When the VIX is low; go slow
But
When the VIX is high; it's time to buy.

Thanks for posting the EXEC pay cuts link, Fleccy. The Sky News one is the one I saw, more up to date and it has a bit more detail. If I read of the proposals at the end of last year I've forgotten so, otherwise I wasn't aware it had already been aired in the media.

Just a few snippets then. That's quite a hit to the CEO's remuneration package from £8.3m down to £5.6m - And it's proposed his minimum shares holding he has to undertake is to be increased up to 5-fold.

From Jansen's perspective he could take the attitude of say:

- Hey! You're moving the goal posts after my employment contract has already been agreed and signed. That's not what we all agreed when you signed me on.

I think there could have been a good PR spin put on this, but check out the bottom of the article:

"BT DECLINED TO COMMENT".

- Why? Could be turned into a win-win all round. Which was why I was suggesting is it manoeuvring and politics to get Jansen to tender his resignation if the May results reveal poorer than Jansen has promised to the media?

The reduction in the CFO remuneration package also coincides with this confirmed announcement but it's a tiny percentage shadow of the hit Jansen is taking. And the CFO gets a rise elsewhere, so tiny reduction overall.

So, no, this is all about one man - Jansen's pay packet.

Bear in mind the quotes from the influential BT holders who were also sourced for comments at the time of Gavpants dismissal with DuPlessi saying it was due to pressure from key investors and the FT interviewing these nameless investors themselves countering, it wasn't them, saying at the last meeting their was no appetite to push for Gavpant's removal.

I mention that because here again the article is littered with quotes from "Insiders" saying the changes were proposed by the BT board (ie., DuPlessi) and not the separate pressure group (IA) nor other BT investors.

So it's curious that after this big upheaval the article quotes these key "investors" who "have been briefed on these plans" that -

" . . . IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO REVIEW THEM TO ENSURE THAT THE COMPANY REMAINED COMPETITIVE WHEN IT RECRUITS MR. JANSENS SUCCESSOR . . BT COMPETES FOR TALENT AROUND THE WORLD AND IN THE US IN PARTICULAR, AND THE BOARD NEEDS TO KEEP SIGHT OF THAT".

So, a key investor/s is suggesting once Jansen does all the heavy lifting and is time to replace him, then an American candidate could be considered and would be paid at higher levels, much more than Jansen has been cut down to.

How would YOU as CEO feel on hearing that? And what future action might you be planning?

No wonder there's no comment from BT.

Or am I just tabloid sensationalising?

in genetal

Tsk!

In general !!

" BUT I CANT UNDERSTAND WHY SHARE PRICE IS NO RISING "
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- Denby, are you misunderstanding the VIX? It's a reverse index.

When it's high that means prices in genetal are retracing and falling deeply.
When it's very low - prices are advancing rapidly.

PLUS is ploughing it's own furrow and ignoring the VIX and ignoring the virus contagion beating down most other shares.

Tread carefully whatever decision you have in mind.

BT refuse to comment.

- Will post what's what later on, as I'm intending to pose the question with some copy paste quotes - Are they gearing up to fire him by forcing him to resign? (Same pay cut for CFO). But tellingly, Du Plessi gets off scott free.

If you find the news story (just out this morning) post it yourself or wait until I have time and . .
- I'll be back. Din din din.... din din din ....

Ludvig,
This might help - If you take your sentence of:

" . . . need to see some evidence this is going to move forward ie day after day of gains . . ."

- and substitute it (with a bit of literary license) wherever you see any mention in my post of 'confirmation',  'confirm' or 'confirmative', it should all make sense and revel that you, Lamtree and myself, are pretty much searching for the same thing in BT's SP before committing/ topping up.

Thank you G/Dav, kind of you to say so.

Actually when there is a market sell off, then on the contrary, in my view, I find that's exactly the time the "chart stuff" (ma trend lines) is MOST needed - more than ever!
They don't do human emotion/sentiment/gut feel.

And as a trend follower, or rather a follower of trends, then by definition I trail behind, and can never buy at the forensically accurate bottom, nor do I try to. And I can't sell at the absolute top either.

The market tells me when to jump - not the other way round ( which I regard as pure luck) as I need confirmation, so there's a day or two gone right there.
And if a trend only lasts so long that 1 to 3 days are lost before that confirmation is received, and the trend is over, and it was critical to get in early, then I should never have entered it in the first place as the profit potential was too slight.

Yes a nice rally in the DOW (the FTSE's lord and master) tonight, but still down on the day, by close.

Futures have just closed down for the weekend, with all futures markets just slightly in the red, but not by much. (Friday night futures are officially useless as a guide).

So let's just say you've made the right decision and also, Monday brings a bullish result for BT.

If significant, then my 'ultra short' term trend lines (twin pairs) are so close tonight, I would get a prompt heads-up during Monday and further by close - and by Tuesday for the sake of argument, they could confirm.

Rather than jump in (one of my failings:) I try to let the (slightly longer) short term trends catch up with them for a stronger, confirmative truth. Should they go the same way (and by now maybe 4 days in total have gone by) then I become so sure of safety, it's a case of risk assessed, and good to go.

So I need the chart stuff in volatile conditions - more than ever. Can't function without them. Period.

Good luck with your 129 buy (although if the oversold condition in BT breaks you won't need it :)
But just quoting a price in the 120's sounds shocking, doesn't it?

PS. Not getting a peep of bullishness out of the trend lines tonight to confirm your view.

So, let's hope your buy turns out to be the first " leader of the pack " - and we all come chasing after you :)

Kick an SP when it's lying injured and down, why don't ya?

PS.
Just in case I've inadvertently encouraged some optimism for Monday, ALL trend lines, on all time frame periods, are having none of it!

Without question, they all say the same:

Feggit mate - we're sticking it to you on Monday! You're going down!

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BT literally needs 'something for the weekend sir?' In readiness for Monday.