Member Info for Velo

It's just flashed up - The DOW has closed up with the biggest point gain - ever!

Unfgigginbelivable! US markets are on steroids. The DOW just closed up almost 1300 points! An indice up 5% in one day!!!

Now THAT'S volatility!

Was it down 1100 points just 4 days ago?

".. that the market wants to force the Fed to cut rates, and this crisis might be its way of doing it... "

At this precise moment, as I post, the US markets are surging up at an astonishing rate - 800 points up on the DOW!
Reason given? Imminent announcement of an interest rate cut. Clearly hey must think COVID-19 is somebody else's problem. It's all going to end in tears.

Surging - whilst the world markets are in panic mode.

FTSE futures are up in blue but only modestly so far.

Hey Fleccy, that's the doc's I watched live today in my post below somewhere -

"Dr McCarthy told CNBC's Squawk Box."

There were 2 of them. (scroll down that link). Truly horror stuff listening to them. They were using the show to warn the public as they were unhappy with the govmt advice and were countermanding it.

As a result of watching that I'm currently sat in a Costa coffee cafe with a cardboard cup instead of my usual ceramic cup. Won't go back to in-house washed drinking cups until we come out the other side.

" I'm thinking to 2203/04 before net debt peaks and perhaps.."

Tsk! Typo.

2023/24 !

... And immediately BT starts creeping up.

US money coming in or just reflected bullishness of the US market?

Volatility or wot? US futures crept back up and markets there just opened and are flying!

" To me there are more room SP goes up than down "

Yes, there certainly is. However, before that - the name of the game is to first find the floor.

Increasingly it's not looking like a typical V shape recovery in the SP but something that will resemble being range bound over a further year or two, maybe.

I'm thinking to 2203/04 before net debt peaks and perhaps as far away as that area of the mid 20's decade with the pension deficit half paid down, that only then will the floor become apparent.

I will become as bearishly  downbeat as any £1 or 68p forecasters should the SP begin living in the lower 130's as that to me would rob me of the belief that from mid 2018 to present has actually been a milder down trend than 2016 to 2018, and entering, holding and taking up residence below the higher end of 130's would mean the old long term trend is reinvigorated and finding the final floor beyond best guesses. Just follow the trend is my live by rule. And the trend is in assassin mood. Not to mention  there's potentially a worldwide market crash to fit in there somewhere.

" Velo, Have been searching whole weekend can’t recall where I saw closing shorts for rally.."

Thanks anyway Rooster, just curious, maybe it was the talking heads personal opinions whenn being interviewed
Other than that, who would throw away billions when the average person in the street would exclaim in increduality: 'But it's far too soon for a rally.'

Just been listening to 2 senior medical specialists on the US finance channels. They sounded like the initial Chinese doctors, one of them angry at the incompetent advice coming out of the US govt, urging vthe public/viewers to ignore the soothing words emanating from the govt.

If what he says is right about the US not having diagnostic testing kits at major hospitals for this particular virus then Italy could soon lose it's record as the most deaths in a western country. He was predicting thousands of cases in the US alone in coming weeks.

Which makes the bounce this morning all the more puzzling.

Current markets FTSE & Germany now given up the gains and down in red.

US futures, whose markets open to trade in just over 2 hours are similar and have reversed their gains into substantial losses in the red.

Indicating that as an absolute minimum the now poor showing of BT will continue with most SP's also continuing into close with the potential for worse should US futures accelerate negatively up to their open.

Took them an hour but the bears have hauled the SP back to 141 and slipping into 140-ish.

Now for round two. Ding ding seconds out .........

Battle royale going on at 142. Bears batted down 145 all the way to 142. Barely hanging on to 142. Futures got stronger on seeing the UK open. So if the big US futures open at 2:30pm our time, as they're showing right now ......... +

The gap-up this morning propelled the SP temporarily out of oversold once again. Most irritating oversold condition I've ever seen in BT. Heading for the record longest oversold period too.

BT up 3p in opening seconds.

Yes, worrying news headlines issued by Govt health ministers this morning on the virus yet futures belting away upwards. Crazy times. Looks like markets here may open up, from the go.

Too early for me to be up yet, but nature calls and couldn't resist a peek on the phone in these turbulent times whilst up - and would you Adam and Eve it?

All those markets listed below are all in blue and up! The FTSE the highest of them alll at circa 2% up!

Could be the effect of the Asian markets than generally open at around 3:00am-ish our time, so once again not reading too much in to it, as it could just as easily be all-change again when our markets are ready to open for the day's trading.

The Naked Trader nothing :) - The Sleeping Investor checking out Zzzzzzzzzzz......

No, I'm not going to make it to midnight. All futures have opened down for the first half hour so far, despite easing off from deeper just a little, it's again too small a time frame anyway. Leave it to mature overnight until pre-opening then it'll be more certain of how bad or not so bad, to expect what the day may be, tomorrow.

Good work Rooster!

Who or where did you get the intel on shorts closing down?

Erratum!

Actually the percentages are too low! They should be higher!

I based them on each futures markets close when they should have been based on Friday's lower actual day's trading day close; in our case that would be the 4:30PM close (including after hours auctions).

Can't be bothered to increase the %'s at this late stage as live futures will recommence for the new week shortly.

I'm wondering if Monday is going to surprise markets everywhere around the world. Take BT's SP on Friday. It sunk upon opening and fell to just under 135 @ 134.9-odd by just after 9:30am-ish.

The headline news was full of a background of markets retracing deeply - and yet shortly after 9:30am-ish BT commenced rallying from just under 135 and never stopped rising until it reached 141 and was still rising into the close! - On serious, double the long term, average volume!

Who'd have forecast that,on such a dreadful day market-wise worldwide?
BT was one of the day's rare beasts - a stock that made a decent rally on the day!

More news today of increasing tested positive of UK virus victims, so up in the air for tomorrow, but I have a different outlook and will confirm it at midnight, if I'm still up by then.

What's NOT been reported (because it's far too early to jump to conclusions) is the bullish rally in ALL futures indices before they closed down for the weekend on Friday night. Only about an hour before they shut down, which makes it all the more incredible - just look at what happened by close 10pm in the futures, on Friday night:

FTSE futures = closed up blue 82.5 points (that's up 1.24%)
DOW futures = closed up blue 239.5 points (that's up 0.93%)
S&P 500 futures = closed up blue 24.7 points (that's up 0.82%)
NASDAQ100 futures = closed up blue 72.2 points (that's up 0.84%)
DAX (Germany) futures = closed up blue 182.8 points (that's up 1.52%)

Something occurred in the US and in Europe after markets closed on Friday for the day. Was it the rate of decline in reported virus victims in China? If so it doesn't explain the rise in virus victims in the US, UK and Europe since intraday Friday.

That's why with only an hour gone of futures before they closed, we'll see if that continues or not when they re-open tonight at 11:00pm. I will prob turn in before midnight but might have chance to report back on the first hour. Then again that too, will be unrepresentative until just before our markets open at 8:00am tomorrow.

So, if I'm still up, will drop a post in, at circa midnight.

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'Buffett puts it more prosaically, citing fear & greed; you know how that one goes.'

" Our goal is more modest: We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. "