Member Info for Velo

Some terrific battles and swings in the first hour. Currently 1p above what displayed here on LSE, but no clear direction yet. Obviously I'm keen for a decisive break one one or t'other. This is a messy one, escaping from oversold condition. Snipers on every rooftop as POW's bolt for it. Steve McQeen is revving up his motorbike and eyeing up the barbed wire fence. Will he make it this time, today?

The answer to the quiz question:

" NEW Consensus Forecasts Dated as 14th Feb:

Current year now, their new forecast is for
2020 = £1,983m net profit forecast

Next year -
2021 = £1,999m net profit forecast

The year after that -
2022 = £2043.5m net profit forecast.

Notice that net profit still increases year after year despite forecasting a drop for this year (not my belief nor Jansen's) it's still a case of net profit increasing on each previous year into the future.

Is that what 'the stalker' sees as a positive?

https://www.holdthefrontpage.co.uk/2020/news/reach-reveals-further-moves-into-rival-territory-after-record-month-online/

A quiz:

Who's going to attempt guessing what the stalker has seen in the future year's net profit new Consensus forecasts published on Saturdsy (and therefore more or less the pre-tax profit too) that has persuaded the stalker to launch last minute bull raids on BT?

'The stalker' played the bears to a tee tonight. A bull trap? Beginning to look more like a trap laid for the bears. But only been 2 days so I'll calm down.

- For now :)

"just after 3am"

Not a parallel universe I inhabit - Autocorrect switched my pm to am.

Thar she blows 155.4p and all is well. Brokers account was mirroring LSE. Only my US live prices package for UK markets was showing the actuality.

Was sitting in the doc's surgery this morning and just about to buy @ 1.54. Point. odd at 8:40am when the unbelievable happened - my name was called bang on time! Had to give up. 15 minutes or so later I was outside in the car completing the buy Knowing that sod's law dictates the price will have gone up but accepted 155.29p anyway but decided on a v small initial tranche as was slightly jumping the gun. By just after 3am I can tell looking back that the oversold came back into play and I had to grin and bare it. But the final minutes seconds by the stalker has pushed it clear of oversold again. Games and misdirection afoot. Well I'm up for it. Bring it on! :)

Was going to post 5 mins ago that the accumulation/distribution indicator was at odds to the upside with the price and pose the question is our secret big fund buyer going to swoop in at the last minute again but was a little down with Toff's posts as have read some data backing that theory, so decided not.

Just glanced and whoosh up a penny now over 155p. Keep an eye out until 4:50pm has ticked on the clock. After hours auctions catch up reporting.

All day the SP has been microscopically (is that a word!?) edging higher, smidgen by smidgen. The big II/fund in in the last 5 minutes last night is silent. They're not present. Volume is low. Similarly they too, when they buy, buy in tranches. It's how a trend is formed. When several II's/funds buy long, they can't do it in one day, so they do it in tranches over a longer period, so as not to overly spook the SP. That's what a trend is. Them buying not us PI's.
My desire is that the day ends no less than than last night's close: 155.82p. Not seeking a big gain just parity with yesterday's close as a minimum.

Will it get there?
Or is it a bull trap (- into which, I have already stepped?) although quietly confident all the same :)

" Intuition is what seems to work for me. " - Avro, not the first I've read that from you, and this is as good a time as any to voice concern.

You've been investing long enough to have read research that proves the stock market is the absolute last place on earth for human intuition. It will be the death of your savings. Never yet read a book by any billionaire investor who states:
' I owe it all to intuition'. No such animal exists - in the stock market.

Don't think there's a single recorded instance of any repeatable, permanent success by any investor using no strategy whatsoever, other than the pot luck method of relying on human emotion.

In almost every other sphere of human activity, intuition will save your ass time and time again. But it will be the death of you in direct stockmarket investment. Holding long term for instance is not intuition. That is a strategy in itself. It's Warren Buffett's but he picks the stocks that meet his criteria in the first place. He has rules. The best investor alive has rules. A strategy. A plan.
Here endth the sermon.

When you muse: "Is it just a pause for breath ?" well I can only purse my lips in angst and drawl, allow me to attempt an answer to that in 24 to 48 hours :) until then, that's a fair question, a good question, that's yet to be dealt with, and as yet remains unanswered.

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" Velo, read your piece but not convinced." I'm pleased you posted that BoBetts. What I'm doing is pure trading, and not recommended to anyone. I expect to be long only for the short term (unless by accident and chance this occasion turns out to be the ultimate floor).

What you've highlighted prior to that statement reveals you to be contemplating a longer term investment as an investor. On that basis I can't fault your analysis. Debt is calculated to reach a climax by maybe 2023/24 plus BT is a political prisoner. Always a bad combo. I'm trying something that worked before with BT and I hope will work again. If not to be on this occasion, then that's okay as I'm not letting the exit sign out of my line of sight.

Done it! Small tranche just bought at 155. 29p Short of time so didn't want to post later should it rise quoting an :am price. Always jumping the gun! Should have waited until close but saw volume more clearly last night when clutter removed and still bullish ultra short term trend lines, although oversold is creeping back to the cliff edge but still above it and it's an initial Small tranche only.

Thanks anyway.

Both BT and VOD up considerably, higher than the norm for both today, yet FTSE down as was the DOW. . . . . Interesting.

Got any more info on that Bosteel82?

I took the bait and registered for free subscriber status but it woukdn't let me read any further. Are you quoting from the visible 4 or 5 word sub heading only or do you have any more Intel?

DT launching a bid is stale old news- years old. If that's what they're getting at. Probably get oodles of porn in my inbox now.

Vodafone is up a lot today too, 4p+ much higher than BT - despite VOD and BT now on parity as regards the SP.

Both FTSE and US markets down today - yet both VOD and BT up - considerably. Hmmm...

And the canary in the mine ultra short term, 'fliberty-gibbet', trend lines which I devised for heads-up notification only - and not a buy/sell decision maker (that's the next level up trend lines) have also turned bullish. The first time they've turned bullish since the election result in ealy Dec last year!

I still need another confirmation. See what happens tomorrow, but I have to sit on the sidelines a bit longer for confirmation. The break has been made. Now confirm it.

Wow! Closed closer to 156p than 155p.

Get this - As per my post below, tiny volume for today into close, wished I'd noted the actual amount now, but I only looked at the graph.

THEN IN THE FINAL 5 MINUTES. In 5 minutes flat - 5 minutes! The most humngous volume of the day bar none - bar none - huge! Came in like a roaring bull! And drove the SP up at speed to 155.8p!

I'm very suspicious, as of yet maybe for the wrong reasons. But the speed and sheer size of that intense 5 minute volume buying has driven the low volume for the day up to longer term averages but has had a drug like effect on oversold condition. The SP is as of tonight, officially just out of oversold and onto a level playing field!

- Who's the big money, moving in fast, last thing tonight?

What's going on?

How can big money, move in that fast, that huge amount, with every single forecast and media report so bearish? What made them change their mind?

And more to the point - is it just the start? Looking like it.

The bearish media, the analysts forecasts, that are so bearish, what's going on? That last media report this morning telling you BT is down 1% and repeating it in the summation to drive home the point that BT is heading in one direction only.

How it goes. Tell you one story in the media, but maybe not the right story.

Jumpimg the gun (should wait another few minutes or so, after hours auctions and delayed stockmarket reporting catch-up's) but unless something dramatic occurs in after hours auctions I'm more and more liking the past 5 days (today inclusive) price formation. Actually seeing a terrific close on live prices [155p!] but will wait another few minutes on that)

The media and Consensus forecasts et al, control the bearish narrative but I'm starting to sniff the opposite as the oversold matures towards termination.

I'd be more bullish except for one thing - a well known bull trap condition - ultra low volume yesterday and so far today. It's a well known fact amongst those who study these things, that if you control enough cash you can contol the price of most shares on the market - in low volume days only - quite easily.

No response in the SP to the most bearish consensus forecast update by analysts yet - and yet the SP ignores it. Baked-in?

I'll buy that so long as this doesn't turn into a false rally and the trap is sprung. The low volume could mean those who were desperate to sell have already done so - and gone. What happens to price when sellers are reluctant to sell?

They've had since Christmas week last year to unload huge amounts so it could be that forced sellers have sated their vomiting. Buyers are actually paying marginally a tiny bit more. Or as Jim Cramer once boasted of his Fund Manger days on Youtube:
"I (then changed to I know people)could bring down any company in the world with just five million bucks - legally!"

Will check the day's volume when all in for the day, but wary when price rises on low volume. However, things starting to look up just a wee nit IMO hpowever shortlived it turns out to be. We'll see.

" Velo,
I have an interesting observation and would appreciate to hear your opinion..."
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Honest reply is: I just don't have any data on that Avro, just homilies and truisms.

For instance a few months ago, I read a US guru trader saying (without providing back up data):

"The price in the mornings is what you think is right. but the price by the end of the day is what the market thinks is right".

I have no info on whether the US like or dislike BT. Just don't know on that.

What I do know from direct personal experience is that if sentiment moves seriously, first in the US, we here in the UK follow suit pretty quickly. In fact the 10 year history of the DOW and such as the S&P500 look pretty similar. You have to check you're on the right Indice chart, they're that similar. To a lesser extent the FTSE on a smaller scale has followed the US trends-ish within it's own universe. It's never really seriously down overall, in any particular year when US markets are up. US markets looked bearish in 2015 and so did the FTSE - When the US turned up in 2016 - so did FTSE, but in all cases the US leads the UK markets by the nose - and not only the UK either.

BT? Well judging by posts on here, over the years many would think the US has had it in for BT for many a year LOL! I just don't hold a view on that one.

From trading the DOW I can confirm another homilie: "The most volatile trading occurs in the first 2 hours, after that you can take the day off" (mostly; not always true, but mostly).
Does that sounds similar to "the morning price is what you think - and the afternoon price . . . . ." ??? Or hearsay and homilies?

But trying to fit a conspiracy theory into all that? If there is one it will always show in the longer term trends. The short term trends are anybody's for a free glass of shandy on a rainy Sat night. But long term trends are the bald truth.

I follow the trends so if the trend is down - it's down, and I don't usually care why that is, (I do 'try' to find out) it will trend up when it's on the rise after a decent period of time, and I won't care why, as the uptrend will be telling me anyway.

So, in all cases, the end of day price at close is what matters most.

So far so good. But the two hours from 2:30pm onwards are when US market sentiment could stick its oars in for the first time since the new Q4 forecast reveal (media analysts quiet; maybe they said 'it all' in Q3? They've hitherto been quick off the mark to publish on analysts updates)

If the SP 'rangeboundness', flat floor, of the past few trading days that back into last week, holds until close, then I'll be checking acutely for the first signs of seller exhaustion resulting in oversold condition beginning to terminate. They always, always, have in BT - (terminated) - with a useful mini rally afterwards (but mostly lasting weeks to months before the long term trends reasserted themselves).

It's that out of oversold period I'll be targeting for a short term, modest profit (or maybe it becomes  longer term - who can really say for sure?)

There is so much universal media fear and loathing in BT that it's beginning to qualify for Buffett's "Be greedy when others are fearful..." but only when the signs point in that direction. Not yet though... not yet.

-Just ruminating. My personal opinions as always, of which I have plenty :)

Low volume today, lowest in almost not quite a year.
Strong armed instituional muscle was missing today.

Forgot it was Presidents Day (17th Feb) in the US today. Most banks etc., are closed all day over there, as well as US stock markets; although futures are still traded.

So a benign day today, for BT - will that reaction cement tomorrow, or will there be a differing reaction to the new Q4 consensus forecasts?