Member Info for Velo

Thank you too, Avro.

It's just as well that everyone doesn't always agree with each others conclusions and opinions, otherwise it would be one boring forum wouldn't it?



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'Buffett puts it more prosaically, citing fear & greed; you know how that one goes".

"Our goal is more modest: We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

I've seen numerous posts now, numerous - each deriding the fact that BT's current SP is barely equivalent to what was paid for EE and therefore BT (not EE) is valued by the market almost approaching practically for free, zero valuation, and held my tongue.

Well, I can remain silent on that issue, no longer!

Whilst I empathise with the sentiments expressed, I do wish those comparisons would refrain from choosing an immovable date, and an immovable valuation of that date paid for EE, and then compare it to a highly moveable SP that is BT.

Just how much do you think EE is worth right now, today?

It sure as hell can't be worth the same amount as BT paid/exchanged shares for back in 2015/2016?

The two iconic stocks of UK telecoms are BT and the market leader - Vodafone. Both are but a shadow of their former SP's when the EE acquisition was done.

Are people saying that EE has remained immobile in valuation by the market since 2016?
So EE has a better future and is more stable than say Vodafone is?

Because since 2016 era VOD has had its SP downgraded in valuation by the market from circa £2 area to today's 134p.

And everyone expects EE to be so strong, so magnificent, that the market has not devalued it by one single penny? Not a single penny downgade by the market? Huh?

Judging by both BT, VOD and a handful of other telecoms company's, you'd be lucky to get half price for what BT paid for EE back in the day. And that's no reflection on EE. That would be the market's valuation, not based on fundamentals - but what the market has been doing to most telecom stocks.

I do empathise with the destructive fall in BT's SP.

But please, comparing it to the bought price of EE back in the day, when common sense dictates that if it was floated off as a separate company today, no way in hell would you get today what BT paid for it back then.

The EE TO BT share price market valuation comparison is erroneous and void. Find like v like to compare and contrast.

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' Buffett puts it more prosaically, citing fear & greed; you know how that one goes. '

"Our goal is more modest: We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

GenerationZKid & NigeCo:

- Thank you both for the generously worded appreciation.

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'Buffett puts it more prosaically, citing fear & greed; you know how that one goes'.

"Our goal is more modest: We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

Nice post there Dofe (the flared jeans post :) Reasoned and balanced (as were Fleccy's too).

Your contributions are informed and enjoyable to read. And I sincerely hope you continue to contribute, and not do a runner again (for which I think I might have played a part in that, as Fleccy's short, dour 'slightly biased' rejoinder post, reminded me, and want to pick up on, to explain the misunderstanding).

Was it 2 years ago? No quite; November 2018 and your first ever post opened with a defensive:

" My first post here but I have been following the BT share board for a while now. I currently hold no BT Shares and have ZERO INVESTMENT KNOWLEDGE but ..."

And then proceeded with a masterful, and very well argued case against investing in BT, even throwing in the phrase:

"I cannot see any logic in ‘averaging down’ as some people appear to do..."

Which I found simply astonishing for someone of 'zero investment knowledge'. On the contrary I found your post displayed admirable investing knowledge - had you left out the I-know-nothing clause. In fact you concluded your post with a final sentence of:

" As I say, I know nothing about investing, so perhaps someone can put me straight. "

A couple did, but not sure if you liked their responses. But I hold my hand up here; I saw your post and was fresh from reading an infamous poster 'Last Call' on VOD and posted a one-liner post calling you a fake poster (or some such) and then asked you to reveal your previous identity, as I was convinced you were no 'new to investing' poster.

That post of mine opened up a barrage of 'responses' to you by others on this board, which I don't blame you for taking offence to, as that was the last you have been seen here until early February this year 2020, and still after that time, you opened again, with:

" I know nothing about investing, but ...."

I assume that's what's ruffled Fleccy's feathers. You are not new to investing and you do have some experience in investing. You mentioned a commodities trading friend, advice from your late father on investing, so you do have experience of investing and I think I would get 100% support here that it shows in your posts. So no need for the deference or self denigrating I-know-nothing, if that's all it was (and misinterpreted by myself and others)
- Yes you do!

If my years-old post, calling you a fake caused offence, and the barrage by others that followed on from that, then I sincerely apologise here and now, and look forward to further posts from you - from whatever objective opinion you hold. Bearish, bullish, or whatever, as you see things.

PS. £5 for a pair of flared jeans? - I'm always up for a bargain, but what could you do me for 2 pairs?

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'Buffett puts it more prosaically, citing fear & greed; you know how that one goes'.

"Our goal is more modest: We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and and to be greedy only when

Nige - Before switching off, just checking the futures of the DOW which have now closed until Sunday evening and yes, the DOW futures closed up 239 points!

If Monday morning is still similarly positive on futures, then blue will abound all over the place - everywhere.

Well that's an impressive close in the circumstances - 141.62p considering the circumstances.
Thought that must be worth a mention in the end of day dispatches, so looks - and they have BT in the 'most down' column at 138's.

I'm seeing 141 from my paid-for subscription services, my brokers, and other places, so unless I'm corrected by others, I'll take it as this free data site is incorrect for BT's close, as it has done so, for some days this past week. Normally outside of market duress, it's quite accurate.

Even if it was 138 close, that still fits in with just flirting at the entrance to the original down trend entrance channel

ie., " 138p-ish down to circa 115p".
Probably shouldn't take comfort from that as despite a singularly magnificent looking candlestick tonight, it's still of the 'expect the kicking to continue' pattern.

Whatever; I'm just pleased the SP didn't close below the high 130's.

Volume was near double the long term average today; so that 141 close is derived from genuine, serious input.

The DOW was over 1,000 points down when BT was rising up to 141, yet it too, has just closed at only 357 points down. Can't read anything in to that, or can you? :)

The VIX was at near 50 points when the DOW was 1,000 points down, which meant there was virtually nothing worse than this occasion (bar one) between here and the 2009 last big crash (90 odd VIX reading at it's height of fear).
VIX slightly improved by close less than an hour ago to 40 points - however, that is still hellishly high.

Then again, as the old timers say:
When the VIX is low - go slow;
but when the VIX is high it's time to buy.

Buffet puts it more prosaically, citing fear & greed; you know how that one goes.

Too dangerous to say anything about next week, so it'll be a case of having to suck it and see.

Rolls Royce closed up tremendously 3%+ today (double that % at one point!) on full year results producing losses! But because they had "narrowed" ie., not as much a loss as last year but still a loss, it was deemed a successful result; revenue was up though.

PS.
Personally, I'll be looking for a minimum close proud of 148 to suggest the virus panic might be loosening it's grip on the SP, and fearing a close on 145.

But anything above a 145 close is still potentially hopeful, IMO.

Later evening blather / idle gossip . . . blah blah blah . . .

My roughly 'by eye' guesstimate (below) of the old downtrend from 2016 to May 2018 - if continued to present unabated, was not to far of the mark. I make it circa a channel of upper 130's say, 138p-ish down to circa 115p.

So my belief that a previous poster's suggestion of 68p wouldn't be seen for years and years, still holds.

Also, my steadily firming belief is that the original long term down trend that commenced in 2016 is still not back on course.

Only if the SP sinks to a little below sub 140 ie., high 130's would it be kissing the upper channel area of the old down trend, by vacillating between that, and approx 115p - would it provide sustenance to the theory that price always regresses to the mean. It still hasn't regressed back to the area of the old down trend.

In fact I'm also still holding, that unless this decline continues, then this current down trend from May 2018 to present, is of a different order and nowhere of the same aggressiveness as 2016 to mid 2018, and therefore raise the question that potentially could the SP be floor hunting, much like the skidding tyres of a windblown airplane bouncing along, trying to land?
- but only with the caveat that the SP gives up any thoughts of sinking just under 140.

Obviously all IMO only.

Can't provide an upside SP, because there hasn't been one since 2016, only the ill-fated rarer attempts at breakouts and mostly, short term rallies.
- Fundamental valuations using P/E ratios look v interesting by comparison to sector averages, if ever the market re-rated BT positively to the sector whole (in the future).

So, not panicking over 140's - but will, if the SP gets driven to just a penny or two below 140p.

"  I am wondering what consequence the current onslaught will have on the company's share price - over a time frame of 12 months "

Am still intending to do some worst case prognosis work on that as a result of posts of £1 and a troll recently citing 68p

Roughly, very roughly, if you imagine the breakout from the May 2018 never occurred (but it has so...) the original long term down trend from 2016 would appear to be in a zig zag channel from an upper price of 140 to 115 by approx this date onwards - if the big breakout in 2018 never occurred.

So it's 140 that concerns me - not the 140's decile range per se.

Will come back to that that tonight as tied up until later.

US ad UK Indices futures all blue and up this morning.

Not quite 1% up (3% fall yesterday) but enough to indicate a fighting chance of arresting the fall upn the markets opening this morning, then dependent on the day's sentiment that follows - but expecting a bit of relief upon openng.

Noticed the DOW futures was down 600 points when it became clear the Virus epidemic was affecting stocks. Bad, but meh seen worse.

BT's Sp didn't look too bad, compared to what was going on elsewhere. The Dow had worsened by 2pm to down 800 points.

From then on BT's SP got worse - and by close tonight the Dow closed down over 1,000 points. 3%+ down. That is bad.

The S&P500 closed down 3%+ too.

By lunchtime the FTSE was 'only' 2% down. Bad but not catastrophic.
By the time FTSE closed it too had closed down 3%+

So with some trepidation I just peeked at the US futures, barely 1 hour into their 'future'.

And . . . . quite well behaved both the DOW and the S&P500.

FTSE futures still looking seasick though.

Need to check futures closer to our opening though as just one hour of US futures is no good to man nor beast, yet.

Not happy seeing that 149.96p close here on this site. Think it's an error. The live data I get from a US company (to get it cheap, the London Stock market sends the data over there, and I receive it back here - cheaper than any British company would charge me - work that one out LOL!) and they're showing a mid price of 151p.

My broker is showing tonight 150.62 to sell/ 150.7p to buy. Yahoo is similar ie., 150's. This site is only .04p below 150p but I believe it to be inaccurate. Checked the intraday history and showing the low as 149.88, which occurred twice
- approx 3:15pm and 3:25pm.
From 3:30pm onwards the SP rose all the way into close, and did not revisit, nor close on 149.odd.

Not at all happy with the situation, regardless. This oversold condition has been weak, after rising out, and now twice, has descended back below into oversold. Low volume was making me uneasy last week with lacklustre SP's. Previously, over the years, they've all been much, much, stronger lift-out's.

Tonight's close is also below average volume. With the long term down trend still at investors backs I was not intending holding too long, come what may. Supposed to be the start of a 'mini rally'. They always have in BT's past. That doesn't give me the right to claim it always will behave the same, just because it has done so in the past.

I still firmly believe the SP will try and seek higher ground at some point, whether temporary or for a longer period, but I have to take note of the SP, twice, falling back into oversold. This could easily turn into the longest oversold for all I know, with it slipping for another complete month yet again, but by that time who knows where the SP could be, and if it only rises out by a small amount, still leaving it a lot further below?

So, decision time tomorrow.
- Get out while only just a small triple figure loss?
Then try again when it does rise out strongly? Other things could awaken on the back of the market reaction to the Covid19 virus.

Not feeling like this about my portfolios as they are investments, this is an attempt at a cheeky trade - against the prevailing trend! So was always time limited.

Must make a firm decision tomorrow. I'll give it time to see if that 149 is correct or an error.

Tomorrow, closing at 152 will keep me in the game, but if looking like closing even slightly below 149 by day's end, even fractions above 148 - I have no option, will have to close it down.

Media getting on it now about stock markets.
It's on the BBC news now:

" Stock markets around the world are falling sharply on pandemic virus fears.".

Thanks for the query b/2rads,

Re-checked and think I may have confused another holding of mine, that's holding a presentation and a full year results announcement today.

- I was referring to the RNS of the 13th Feb. Looks like I am in error. Apologies.

- It states March 5th as the annual trading results with an analysts presentation at 9:30am. Speed reading and posting on both boards, so apologies to all for mis-posting on a pre-results update today.

It fleetingly crossed my mind at the time: 'That's a bit close for an update, so close to the results'.

All markets badly down this morning, including US futures, possibly on fears of the virus becoming a pandemic. So added pressure on the SP.

VOD fallen just as % much as BT so thought no winners in this latest spat, but all UK markets down deeply this morning. Same on US futures. Must be concerns on the virus becoming pandemic as hinted at over the weekend.

Bugger! Live prices dipped down into 151's now @152p
I'd just like to say @##!!!@@#!!! and further @@##!!!***!!!
Just can't stay clear of oversold.

That billionaire boss of the Citadel hedge fund was in the media everywhere yesterday, even receiving updates on news items on my phone! What a stinker on what is supposed to be an upbeat day for GVC. No info on what data Citadel is basing it's shortpositions on so a bit nasty that initial drop of the SP. It was gearing up nicely for a positive reaction before the short announcement.

Seeing 181p on live prices currently. :)

"You couldn't make this cr*p up could you ? BT off doing its own thing as usual born out out of arrogance and petty, childish "it's my ball" attitude "

Actually, when I read that poster on the Telegraph site yesterday, my immediate reaction (rightly or wrongly) was that BT's competitor's were the one's throwing a hissy fit and snatching the ball back. It came over to me as them being used to Ofcom intervening and now them roping together to continue defacto as a sort of quasi Ofcom copycat diktat. Hissy fit!

No sign of the pre-results progress update yet, anywhere, so likely later this morning during the analysts presentation.
Thought they might have released that part, pre 8:00am as a separate RNS.