Member Info for Velo

Checked the internet, but he (Citadel) isn't divulging just what he's seen that's led him to short GVC.
I suspect either he feels closer to US sentiment as to allowing a foreign company direct access to US markets with potentially hostile regulations and a White House that is itching to punish any foreign company that is seen to be from a country that is pro Huawei.

If he has anything bearish that is on the balance sheet now, then he's not confident enough to spill the beans, contrast that to those hedge funds that do release their findings publicly and widely to all and sundry (aka Burford Capital saga; day receivables). Or he's not saying, because he has illegal access to insider trading.

Both Citadel Advisors and Citadel Europe (I'm assuming different branches of the same outfit) have a combined 1.83% of GVC loaned holdings in play. The media bit available said he's punting £80m on shorting GVC.

But 1.83% of the free floating shares of 580.4m comes to 10,621,320 shares - and at Friday's close that's £91.6m

He's listed as last adjusting his short on the 7th Feb. So he's either quoting at Friday's close £11m higher or back before the 7th in which case he should still be in profit. But the number of shares involved come to way more than £80m.

The amount is even higher if he sold into the market around the 7th at roughly 890p-ish. (Or was that him on the 13th when the SP dived from just under 930p to close the day at 865-ish?) Again way more than £80m.

Obviously some of his older transactions were done way back, so not all done on the day. Whatever, if this doesn't come off, the loaned shares still have to be obtained from the market and handed back to the original owners. Presupposing the annual results impress the market, and the SP rises, will he call it quits, and be forced to buy back into the market thus driving the price even higher just to return stock to it's owners?

I think from the figures above he's in way deeper than his announcement of £80m. So any increase in the SP as a result of the imminent trading updates etc., will have him squealing.

Bob, could you paraphrase/list, any of the things that they're highlighting and using to short GVC, as The Times is behind a paywall.

But first, before those annual results are released a week this Thursday, is a heads-up trading progress tomorrow, alongside a stragedy presentation to analysts.

Not expecting anything untoward, on the contrary; but my personal concerns are net debt which I believe may end up rocketing over £2b with liquidity looking a little stretched.

With all the expansion plans for the US, perhaps increased debt is just a by-product of that ambition?

Solved that problem years ago,, it's not just financial sites, it's when speed typing too. What you NEED is a touch-screen sylus pen -

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/10X-Touch-Screen-Ballpoint-Stylus-Pen-For-Iphone-Ipad-Samsung-Tabs-Android-Phone-/27407141746

I also buy a bag of those girl's stretchy hair bangles and loop one through the pen's clip and thus the pen is always attached to the phone or tablet. The retractable biro end of the pen is useful for hard copy notes whilst the other end has the soft rubber ball to tap the screen with. No cap top to lose either.

Using it for this post now. Don't know why every bloke doesn't use one as only girly-hands can type accurately and quickly on small screens.

There was a bit of banter here in the week about how difficult it is to make money on the stockmarket because the MM's will dip into your pockets at every opportunity.

If you've been around a bit then you've almost certainly got the odd stinker beyond redemption, hidden under the bedsheets (I have) that should have been dumped aeons ago.

Well here's a post, sort of a boast-post really ( well it is the wekend now :) a boast that praises sheer bloomin' luck.

How about a stock that the MM's et al, are just plain ignoring because it's under the radar of almost everyone?

Bought it barely 18 days ago (3 weeks this coming Monday) for 146p and 18 days later it closed tonight, up at 174.6p.

So that's a poetic 18% gain, in 18 days.

Neat.

Lucky is, as lucky does.

No way am I claiming it as skill. (The gods will take offence and strike!)

In fact, come Monday it could even do another 18% gain on Monday alone, and I expect it could double in price eventually, sooner rather than later, if -
"if" Monday is a succesful presentation.

So don't get too down in the dumps about you can't make money because the market is rigged against the private investor, well yes, it can be at times. But it's never over until the fat lady sings!

" My hope for the future is takeover or a merger and ..."

Was deleting old files today but refrained from doing so on one of them [from Jan 7th 2019 last year] as the closing para still intrigues me, this bit from the the closing para (and a bit from the opening leading up to it):

https://advanced-television.com/2019/01/07/when-is-bt-cheap-enough-for-dt/

" ....And BT obviously thinks it may launch a takeover bid. According to reports, BT is consulting takeover advisors Robey Warshaw and Goldman Sachs. Its shares are at a five-year low and the weakness of the pound sterling is an encouragement to foreign bidders . . .
- . . . Indeed, Timotheus Höttges, DT CEO, “Before taking over BT, let me tell you that we would first go for Orange, then KPN, then TeliaSonera and then BT”

-------------------------------

It was his attempt to defuse speculation, but why still leave BT as a consideration at the end of a line of other potential candidates?

Just rustled up some pivot points for Monday.
These, if interested (for fun) are what I'll be personally looking to see get broken (the upside ones) and the other one despondent, if Monday closes below it.

They're very close and very easy to go in either direction. Anybodies on the day. Might check Barcharts in the US @ after 9pm tonight, to see I haven't miscalculated. They should be similar.

Anyway, close Monday nicely into 157p is all it would take for a gentle but defo positive bullish continuance.
How easy-peasy sounding to please, is that then?

And just as easily to disappoint, is closing Monday by, even a fraction of a fraction, below 155 and I will be open to alternative opinions. It's that close. (I bought a tiny smidgen below 155p this morning so I can hear its breaths behind me).

In fact forget 158 all together, the new black hat at the saloon bar with a nasty scar down his cheek, and notches on his pearl handled pistol is 159. Close nicely just proud of 159 and it's break out the bunting time, and I will do Riverdance all round the desktop computer!

But 157 at ALL fractions of it, is quicksand at every step. Wouldn't hold it against the SP if Monday it got rebuffed at 157.

So, 157 minimum close on Monday for peace of mind.

159 and I'll be: Get your face away from that blue touch paper - now!

Ha ha ha, that made me laugh Avro & Rooster(1.29m)

Quinny @ " Would like to see it break 160 next week "

Should achieve that IMO. Will be quite despondent, and a case of back to the drawing board if not achieved next week.

Uninspiring attempt at leaving the gravitational pull of the devil's dungeon down there today.

Just examing the last exit of an oversold set-up, in very late September and no problemo - 1,2, 3 days and it was off and well underway. Terrific little rally.

1,2,3 and this time - just an audible pffftt, and a failure-to-launch-on-command, with people leaning-in, staring closely at the inactive, smouldering, smoking, blue touch paper. . . .

Only logged-in to see if I could visually catch the Last Minute Stalker, went over there a little bit late as typing this, and might have missed him, as suddenly there, out of the blue, was a sizeable bullish candlestick in either the last minute or the after-hours, 5 minute auction, bringing the price marginally back up and securing 156 for the week. Not as hefty as the previous closes, and in line with a lack lustre below average volume trading day.

At least the week closed up, finishing on a blue. It's a start I suppose.

Not a case of bullish or bearish sentiment ruling the roost, but a complete lack of interest by either side of the sentiment, as shown by the low volume.

At last, just got my second tranche top-up.
Now if things don't go according to plan it will sting a bit. Just a little. Intend further top-up/s.

Besides with 155 average, it does rather ameliorate the downside if I decide to hold for a longer, later upturn.

In case any new arrivals are reading and also wonder why the number of my intraday comments on the SP they may have missed old, earlier posts on my reasoning.

- I'm conducting a live social forum experiment. I posted of almost making an open diary of events just to see if it's my self-inflicted bias or if money can be made in certain conditions that appear at regular intervals in BT, despite the longer term downtrend.

In fact all in all, it would have been possible to make serious money. So here it is. An attempt to make money in BT despite that longer downtrend and the universal bearish outlook by 9 out of 10 analysts.

My record so far, without wishing to repeat older posts is a running total profit made in BT of just £1k over the past couple of years. Looking to make that double by the time this particular condition has expended itself, or not :)

Small fry, but there it is.

Well, goodness! Many thanks for the supportive posts; appreciated.
Hadn't taken offence at Toff's post/s as I'd previously formed the opinion that I wouldn't be at all surprised if he revealed he'd been diagnosed as a sufferer of Asperger's syndrome or similar. It's an affliction.

Always sounds as if the sufferer is angry; all the time.

Total lack of self awareness.

Intolerance to differing opinions, other than one's own.

And a total humour bypass.

His style of posting reminds me of when I was exchanging posts online, many years back, with someone who appeared to have a deep understanding and knowledge of the penal system. Turns out he self-admitted (publicly online) he'd served time for murdering his landlady. He was in the process of accepting my help in dealing with a documentary maker (now he revealed it was about his case and others like him). But god, he didn't half tear into other posters and just about anyone in the news. And so angry - at everything. I thought (until he made it clear) that he was a specialist, and not from murdering people either! He explained about how Asperger's syndrome affected him.

Ashamed to say, I bolted in complete and utter terror. Never been back to the 'Guardian Online' since. Just recalling that makes me shiver.

Was going to let Toff's post/opinion slide and ignore it, after all an expression of boredom is not the end of the world with my often overlong posts, but with so many supportive posts I thought it would be rude not to express thanks.

( Concludes Part 2 of 2 . . . )

. . . If the market doesn't like the profit declared, and should it be closer to the TTM calcs than the guidance estimates, then if received badly I'd still be looking to add cheaply than pull a face as TTM is still forecasting a decent recovery in profit.
All company noises since H1, appear to pooh-hoo my lowly £40m forecast in Net Profit.

* Dividend cover is absolutely fantastic and easily affordable, so I'm looking forward to a decent divi payment :)

* Net debt is at a record 6 year low! And backed up by negligible gearing.

* Liquidity is strangely not so hot but good enough, was expecting better.

* And broadly speaking, a host of very nice looking fundamental metrics in RCH's favour.

So, all looking good for expectations but a huge parting of the ways in net profit expectations. I need to be "wrong" on Net profit, and the triple figure net profit guidance issued for RCH needs to rule on the day.

There's been nothing but bullish noises coming out continually from the company, so not expecting net profit to disappoint.

(Part 1 of 2)

I've bought-in to the story narrative of RCH by investing. Looking to add by topping-up too.

Being new to RCH (although I've known of its existence for some years) I thought this strategy presentation on Monday was the most important thing on the agenda and firmly believe, assuming Monday goes well, significant progress can seriously get underway from Tuesday onwards with both the company and the SP.

But equally significant is the full year trading results due to be revealed simultaneously that day too.

If all you've been reading is about this jam-tomorrow strategy presentation you might be forgiven for thinking the results are going to be stellar. Not quite, but they've been well sign-posted so shouldn't come as surprise to analysts.

A lot of talk is of:
". . . But Reach has since released an encouraging H2 update, which explains that in the five months to end November, the revenue trend improved, with a 4.4% fall (better than the 6.3% H1 drop) . . . " etc., etc.,

In other words revenue will be down, but not as much as in the first half of the year etc., - usually well received by analysts.

So had to dig in the figures to see what's what, and therefore if the actuals on the day are better or worse than forecast a better handle might be obtained before the market opens on Monday after they reveal the finals, usually at 7am that day.

I want to examine what has been said to what might be expected - and the potential for reaction by the market.

Some quickie points:

Revenue is estimated to come in at circa £700m slightly down on the preceding year's £723.9m But using TTM calculating methods I'm seeing same-as condition to circa £727m+

So, it would be nice for RCH to have underestimated in that instance wouldn't it? But that figure of £727m is an estimate itself, so take that into account.

After several years of steady Net Profit circa the £60m+ and upwards area, last year turned in a huge loss at a stonking £119.6m Net Loss! All that is done and dusted though.
This year estimates are for an incredible £116.8m Net Profit (higher if pre-tax profit is all they quote on the day).
That is what the market will be looking for on the day to add credence to the future forecasts. Only one thing. Using TTM calculations which leave out the 'news' increases reported since H1 I can only come up with £40.5m Net Profit.

Good enough, after that triple figure loss the previous year. I'm hoping that difference in net profit is an error on my part as there has been some tremendous 'talk' of huge gains made since H1 - but is it huge gains that have to be yet monetised? It's the net profit I'll be looking at most on Monday morning.

If the market doesn't like the profit declared, should it be closer to the TTM calcs than the guidance estimates then if received badly I'd still be looking to add cheaply than pull a face as TTM is still forecasting a decent recovery in profit.

( Continues > > > )

Again, for the third day, in either the last minute of trading or the 5 minute auction in after hours - a massive trade, affecting previous hours of steady play. First 2 days auctions were bullish, this one was bearish; connected?

Was a little suspicious around 3:45pm for two reasons:
1) When, for all the fighting by bulls, raising the SP to 157.6p at one point, all of a sudden no one was seeking to buy and instead the selling came to them. How cool of the bulls to sit on their hands and let distressed sellers come to them. Or were they?

Strange how the struggle all day, suddenly evaporated in the face of determined selling came out of nowhere.

S'pose one should shrug and accept it as 'the stock market flucuations' etc.,
But that final massive sell was astonishing. Very suspicious. Had been thinking of making my second buy from 3:45pm onwards, then thought leave it till morning if games are afoot.

And 2)
Volume was suspiciously low, very low, and yet the SP motored the strongest of all week - on ultra low volume!
Low volume - the home of where the price manipulators inhabit - when they're active.

I logged off approx 4:27pm-ish thinking that 157p is going to slip below back into 156 - and that stalker will come screaming in at the last moment and clean up once again on the cheap. Nice I trading I thought. Pretty sure it was now 4:29pm or gone 4:30pm as I downed the last dregs of my coffee, pulled the collar up of my raincoat and headed out, leading me to think - has this all been planned, and not the random fluctuations of the market?

BUT was not expecting that sudden bearish reversal. The same stalker? Or a new player? If the same last minute stalker then it's been a bull trap all along with potentially worse to come tomorrow, now new buyers are in. But if a new player/s, then stalker guy/s should pick up the slack tomorrow.

Am I guilty of over-thinking it? Highly likely :)

Whatever; never under estimate the power of the force of coming out of oversold upon an SP.

Tonight, BT sits cleanly above oversold, even more beautifully so when at high 157's where I was hovering towards a second tranche buy.
If manipulated, can manipulators defeat a genuine termination of an oversold condition? I doubt it very much.

But ugh - low volume - so the market is standing back, too timid to act after the recent brutality shown towards BT since just after the election rush quietened down. Perfect for manipulation.

Wonder if our friendly Phantom of the Market last minute stalker will swoop in during after hours auctions for the third night in a row?
Think I counted his presence at least 8 times today or maybe he's got competitors? If it was him, might he forgo the auction?

"If perchance it can attack 158 TODAY"

- Once 156 is restrained, secured and handcuffed in custody.

And the little matter of 157?

I expect 157 to come out with their hands up. They won't put up a fight, not expecting any resistance from that quarter.

158 will be a right bstrd like his mate 156. Special forces needed for that pillbox

Aww I missed it hitting 156
I was elsewhere and only looked in ust now before moving on too next things to do stuff.

It's a bit high in the intraday relative strength orbit, so hope it can hold.
If perchance it can attack 158 TODAY then I will get my top-up on sight of 158 but if the day ends at the higher end of 156 then will be more than happy with that.

Thought it was a strategy presentation only, on Monday.

But the analysts initial interest on Monday is the big reveal of the annual results.
The content of the strategy sounds very bullish so will attempt to examine the balance sheet expectations for the annual results later today and post under this header later.

Update comms from the frontline: assault troops reached out for the doorknob of 156. Had their hand on it for 1 second.

156 footsteps echoed from inside and the occupant creaked the door open to see who was there. The attack faltered and they retreated.

What do I have to do - send for Jason Bourne to sort you out? - get back in there!!! No retreat!

Whatever you decide B/Betts, make it on your own analysis, to your own risk tolerances. I'm on a specific mission that is 100% short term. And dangerous. I've gone long in a 100% down trend! Hence my initial small tranche. Nothing proved yet. But if confirmation comes in, I expect to pay higher for the 2nd tranche than I paid yesterday.
Warning over.

I'll be dissapointed if 156 doesn't get taken out today. It and 158 should have been taken out like nine pins if this was a characteristic break from oversold depths.

156 appears to be frightening the life out of the SP. More evidence I jumped the gun too early instead of waiting for decisive confirmation. Touch and go.

If this was a film - then it's not listening to it's earpiece: "Take the shot! Take the shot!'