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Hi VanV,

Don't over think my posts, or sweat it, as they say over there :) It's only me.

My posts are not of an overtly ramping nature, neither are they overly deramping; but for those who can hold opposing thoughts at the same time, without duress.

Having said that, it is a truism that one has to be inherently optimistic when investing on the stock market otherwise success will be evasive.

Thinking on buying - or taking some profit on Tuesday?
First off, as things stand now - forget all about future revenue from Saudi Arabia et al. As things stand this weekend - Is the SP too high or fair? (Don't include the Covid effect).

(It's entered Overbought condition for the very first time in it's listed life, but now, as a "hot stock" that means nothing) but just in case it signals that profit takers could be active as a market reaction next week, it's prompted me to calculate some pivot points for next Tuesday to look out for; but want to calculate them for the past couple of 'fast' days to get a feel of how many supports and resistances per day, it's been cruising through to give a feel for Tuesday - so will post those tomorrow.

But for long term holders, what do you think of the SP as you see it now? One method that's been useful to me, not to mention it's dead easy to calculate:) is comparing where a stock stands in relation to its peers in the same sector/industry as opposed to comparing to the market whole and that's the simple P/E ratio.

As NCYT has never produced a profit, all you will see on this LSE site and others, is a negative value for the (historic) P/E ratio meaning it's incalculable whilst in negative earnings territory. But the company estimates do show a profit for the coming year (even though below I have lamented the lack of adherence to achieving trading estimates) you probably feel with all the huge revenue heading this way, any 'old' pre-Covid estimates will easily be surpassed. I agree. So have allowed the use of 'forward earnings' shown in estimates and it comes up with a ratio of P/E30.7

Now, especially in this market volatility that's awfully high, as the wider market has suffered so much that instead of low teens it now sports this weekend, a lowly P/E10.8
That's the damage done to the whole FTSE markets by the crash. But this is a hot stock - and hot stocks break all the rules, so how high is it above its peers?

Answer - it's not! It's the poor cousin.

I was shocked too, the industry median for NCYT's peers is higher at P/E38.0 !

So, right now the SP is undervalued when compared to the industry median!

Just to gain parity with its peers, the SP would have to increase to 466p just to sit level pegging with its industry peers without even being considered as a hot stock.

It does need to be considered as a hot stock so if you have a valuation higher than 466p - you're probably correct!

Whatever, IMO the "current SP" does not overvalue NCYT.

466p would only render it merely plainly and simply "average" for the industry.

All IMO of course.

VanV @
" Velo (13:11) Your post reads like a request from a Phd student, although I'm looking forward to reading your forecasts and contributions! Where is your 'natural hunting ground'? What are your major holdings? Have you invested in NCYT? "

by VanV sunday 14:18pm

Made a note of this post as knew it'd be snowed under with so many posts. Want to go back and see if I can glean anything from the selection methodology of those who have posted of successfully invested, profitably in this stock.

" to reading your forecasts and contributions!"

I'm still thrown out of kilter by the lack of the Dec 31st trading results. Now due to be published in September. Late April in 2019 wasn't it, for the 2018 version?

In all my years . . . . never ever heard of such a liberty. Most concerned. Anyone in regular contact with the BOD please include a query as to the reasoning behind the unacceptable delay. It has thrown a big spanner into what I had planned to post. Can't attempt pro-rata forward calcs if I don't know whether the company is an habitual abuser of estimates or not. The 'miss' in revenue for 2019 is huge! I can now only surmise the net loss is similar hence the lack of urgency in publishing the results. When something good happens in your life it's difficult not to tell close friends and family it it not? Do you sit on it for three quarters of a year before announcing "I've won the lottery"?

I'm quite serious about this lapse in publication because I now have a fair idea of the size of the Net Loss they're keeping quiet about.

Think they're trying to disguise it, so that this year's trading will obscure the huge loss. In other words, revenue tanked v estimates and with the revenue they did achieve they still failed to monetise it into profit. Is that what they're trying to hide?

Big revenue now expected for the company this year - but are they selling 'it' too cheaply? No profits ever in its history - research company not expected to, early on. Have they the right mindset to capitalise on this opportunity?

Whatever, I do have some positive thoughts on why the current SP is undervalued at the moment, involving comparison to the industry median (and a variety of some other observations) but it depended on a) the estimates for 2019 having some bearing to reality. The 2019 revenue shows the complete opposite. I regard this late publication of overdue results with some alarm. You don't bury good news do you? The positive RNS's are testament to that!

" Where is your 'natural hunting ground'?" & "What are your major holdings?"

Decided to get out with the market crash. Currently all portfolios now 96% in cash, that's still a six figure amount but I'm out of long term investing until late 2022. Will trade though; hence my interest here, but I'm off to a bad start with this one.

" Have you invested in NCYT?"

Not yet. Will see as I post the initial positives whether I talk myself into it.

Uh oh. . . Raised its head again -
For clarity, think I need to restate my position once again, vis a vis holdings and motivation with BT.

At the risk of repeating myself, as I've typed this several times in reply to some posters over the years - I have to date now held 4 positions in BT.
In, then out quite soon after, on each occasion.

In essence -
A) My running total with BT is still a small profit after 4 separate trades
and
B) I don't hold any shares at present, but will trade every damn oversold (long) and overboughts (short) as they arise.

That's my game plan for BT and/or when the long term trend lines confirm to the upside.

------------------
Overall I'm still in profit to this day, but was only ever £1k+ in profit. But that's academic now, as the last trade was a small £200 loss and took my £1k profit down into triple figures - so you can imagine I now prefer to say - never lost money in BT - overall, as a running total. As anyone touting triple figures as a profit is having a joke, surely?

Trade 1)
Originally bought when it breached past £3, but I reversed out at high speed. Had to add the divi to announce I was out all-told with a only a £25 loss - had held £5k worth of stock.

Trade 2)
I discovered that historically BT's oversold conditions were so reliable that they were as good as a guarantee when they terminated, and took a long position on just such an occasion a "mini rally". I sold far too early for a £1k profit. Could have been much more, but I got too excited.

Trade 3)
A year later I bought long again, but mistakenly sold in the belief it was a false positive and got out with £20/£25 profit, so running total still £1k profit.

Re-evaluated my investing with BT, and decided rather than quit BT permanently, I would make money out of the discovery of BT's uber-reliability of behaviour in oversolds.

Trade 4)
Since then, I've recently, this year, highlighted another oversold condition and took a position. Initially at £5k but was looking to increase to £10k when confirmation was visible. I had done the old habit and jumped into a false rally too early and it fell back towards oversold, so I sold for a tiny £200 loss. But kept an eye, as it attempted a third termination of the oversold, which you will find a single post of mine back in mid March somewhere confirming just that.
But didn't take up that position; it only intraday'ed up to circa mid 130's so it wouldn't have been much profit anyway.
--------------------

So,

A) My running total with BT is still a small profit after 4 separate trades

and

B) Don't hold any shares at present, but will trade every damn oversold (long) and overboughts (short) as they arise.

That's my immediate game plan strategy for BT and/or when the longer term trend lines confirm to the upside.

(Looks like part 1 of 2)

Thought I would have knocked this post off in minutes, and go on to others for NCYT I have in mind, but been stuck on the 2019 results
- there aren't any to peruse!
This is the fourth month on, since that year's accounts terminated.

Can only find the interims from the summer of 2019, and on their website (on another page entirely) the CEO does an essay type disclosure of the trading results - only he doesn't. There's mention of revenue at €13.1m which is way, way down on estimates - and not a dicky-bird on either pre-tax profits/losses or net profits/losses - not a mention, just a lazy, cash is good, type of talk.

It's left me fuming.

Been to free sites but all report only up to 2018 results available - (I pay subscription fees for professional rendering of companies results and even they are showing 2019 blank!)

Even went to the LSExchange site itself - same story - no 2019 trading results submitted!

All of a sudden I am reminded of one of the many reasons I have issues with AIM stocks - they're allowed to get away with murder!

So anyway, will go with what I've got (which is nothing apart from revenue)

-----------

Although the past half dozen years trading revenue show consistent increase after increase, the bottom line, Net Profit, has only ever shown loss after loss, right up to the latest available results (2018) with a typical €4.74m loss.

Interestingly there is no named broker in NCYT currently, so that will change for sure as the company grows. The estimates I have were upgraded last summer before Covid-19 broke, but nonetheless showed dramatic increases in both revenue and Net Profit for the next 2 years - years ending 2019 and 2020.

First, actual 2018 achieved (the last figures available) were:
Revenue = €13.7m
Net LOSS= -€4.74m

Now compare to the 2019 estimates:

The estimates for 2019 are:
Revenue - €21.0m
Net Profit - €2.2m

Quite an improvement and Covid-19 revenue, not even on the horizon yet, so all looking good you'd think.

With 2019 results unaccountably being withheld (unacceptable!) using the TTM method of calculation based on the 2019 interims I have revenue for 2019 coming in at only €13.9m and yet another loss of -€2.2m

No idea what Net profit/loss is for 2019 but as mentioned above there is mention by the CEO of the net profit or loss, and as stated he says only that revenue achieved was €13.1m - which is worse than 2018! So until the annual results do show up, I'm of the opinion that yet another loss is on the cards and calculate that based on the interims of circa -€4.89m which is a greater loss than 2018!

If anyone has any reasoning on why the known 2019 trading results are being withheld and hidden from private investors I'd like to hear it.

(Rant continues) > > >

Only became aware of this stock last Wednesday - before then, had no idea of its existence. AIM not my forte so not my natural hunting ground; whatever, well done to all who got into this stock before its meteoric rise so far. I like hearing success stories so I would love to hear the reason from anyone, as to why you bought into NCYT before February or even last year; is it because of a natural interest due to your day job connections - ie., pharmacist?

(Novacyt - unfortunate Co. name chosen; sounds like something toxic or a new Russian poison on the loose LOL :)

- Or maybe you or a family member, had a serious disease and was impressed by something that helped, and took note of the company name on something medical and invested for those reasons?

99 times out of 100 these AIM pharma stocks will not deliver, so kudos to those of you, whether it be luck or calculation, who decided to put your investment into this. Now being touted in the media as one of the all-time greatest stock price rises in the history of the stock market!

Any of you now worth 7 figures as a result of your holding in this share alone? I'd like to think so; maybe just one person? Thousands of percent rise if bought in recent years (from 7p/8p or so, if bought last autumn?) just in the last 3 months alone a 3,424% relative strength increase! I should imagine original long term investors, unaware of the pandemic about to cause hysteria worldwide, originally bought into this for their work on cancer treatments, yes?

I still haven't researched this stock, so will put down some initial first glance fundamental thoughts shortly, as this morning is my first chance to look into the finances and metrics of NYCT - but are irrelevant as everything is based on years of loss after loss, although I do have an interesting next 2 years future estimates/forecast from the only official broker in NYCT. The forecasts were already positive to the upside, but these show a noticeable increase round about early summer of last year. They are impressive enough on their own - and show the company breaking with the past of NIL profits and actually producing profits! So as they were produced last summer, they don't look as they've factored in the Covid-19 work at all
- Will post those separately after I compare the before and after forecasts)

Will break further thoughts/findings into relevant separate post titles.

Anyone who cares to jot a post as to what first attracted them to investing in NYCT I would genuinely love to read.

(Part 2 Concludes)

Moving on to year 2 (Which has commenced and is just under 2 weeks old) ie., 2020/2021 - the analysts are forecasting the full year dividend payments as £1317.5m, so they're anticipating the management only reducing the dividends by less than £200m and thus divis per share should be circa 13p per share. But on checking they are showing 10p,per share, which is incorrect in my book, and very confusing, so I thank you for mentioning divis per share as I was looking only at total capital amounts to be paid out in divis - and I suddenly realise your query. It doesn't correlate. Can't be £1,300m for divis and only 10p per share but that's what they're showing. £1,300m in divi payouts should be - 13p per share. But they show 10p per share! Maddening.

Year 3 is, 2021/2022 and they're showing just under £1b in dividends at roughly£988bn and show divis at 10p per share. So for year 3, the amount and the pence per share match, more or less - but not in year 2.

So, will have to rescind my earlier post of only less than £200m deducted in year 2 for dividends as the analysts insist on showing 10p per share further up the sheet - strange - where does the odd £300m go then???

Anyway, the point is full divis to be paid in the announcements on May 7th. Subsequent years they're forecasting only 10p per share (but their figures don't tally in year 2).

--------------------------

Whatever one thinks of analysts estimates, too high, too low (and there will almost certainly be another one before May 7th) the real value is deciding whether in general, the consensus analyst estimates are trending up or down. Sadly they are drifting down for the year about to be published and this new current year just commenced.

The good news is that for 2021/22 they all as a consensus have ceased downgrading the top and bottom lines and show things stabilising with both revenue and net profit increasing fractionally, but not back to levels currently enjoyed.

Anyway, for long term holders it is some sort of good news in that there's one year the consensus is for BT to cease turning in lower figures and that is a plus - but a short few years away, for now.

Shortly after May, everyone's interest may be on their forecast for the new Year 3 - 2022/2023, and see if the top and bottom line small increases are built yet further upon. Although you should hear it first from the CEO in an RNS trading update rather than from a bunch of analysts.

(Part 1 of 2 )

Fleccy - there are only 2 key estimates and two outliers - median, mean - then highest, and lowest .

You can not include either the high or the low because they are already ameliorated into arriving at both the mean and median averages. I use only the median and mean, and then unconventionally add them together and divide by 2 to get an average of the averages, then it's less numbers swirling about. Just one figure per metric.
(20 or so analysts but only 13 involved on this occasion).

Whatever, you have a point on year two, it is showing as 10p per share in divis, but the amount in cash is not and is showing as £1,300m - 13p per share! Perplexing.

Anyway, I'm rescinding my 'not deducting the full amount for 20/21' and going with your 10p as that is what is stated. I prefer to look at the capital amounts which directly correlate to 10p/15p etc., but not on this occasion. More below on that anomaly by either BT admin or the analysts.

First off, I'm following the convention on the PDF sheets.
All years that are unpublished are treated as forecasts; and therefore year 2019/20 that concluded just under 2 weeks ago, is Year 1 forecast, because it is still unknown (until May 7th).

Year 2 is this new trading financial year 2020/2021,

and year 3 is 2021/2022.

(Once May 7th comes and goes, and 2019/2020 is thus put to bed, everything will bump up, and a new further trading year will be added to the sheets in the next update and show 2022/2023 as year 3 - as they always show three years of forecasts).

Now the last year of published accounts for 2018/2019 shows dividends paid out as £1,504m. The general media talk has been of a reduction of one third if it happens, so a neat £500 deducted leaves a round £1bn for dividends. ie., 10p per share. It's that total I was looking at and referring to, in my post.

For year 1, the year that's about to be published on May 7th the consensus analysts are showing just over £1,500m in payments, and further up the sheets, a rough average of means and medians comes to 15p per share in divis.

So the point is that in essence, the analysts consensus is that when the results are announced on May 7th NO REDUCTION IN THE OUTSTANDING PROMISED DIVIDENDS WILL BE ACTIONED.

So the analysts are of the opinion, that investors will receive the full dividends promised and be told so on May 7th and when to expect it to be paid to them.

Moving on to year 2 (Which has commenced and is just under 2 weeks old) ie., 2020/2021 - the analysts are forecasting the full year dividend payments as £1317.5m, so they're anticipating the management only reducing the dividends by less than £200m and thus divis per share should be circa 13p per share. But on

Continues > > >

(Part 1 and a bit)

At last - it's out; what I've been keenly looking out for - the analysts full consensus forecasts for BT that includes their opinion of how the lockdown economy will or won't impact upon BT - out this very morning!
In actual fact, you can hardly tell.

https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12020-21/bt-group-consensus-9-apr-2020.pdf

Yes, it's down yet again, but only slightly. (Next Tuesday now, before we see what the market will make of it).
The last analysts consensus was for a reduction of not only revenue but net profit too, forecasting to come in below £2b net profit. I use a TTM method of calculation so hold a higher outlook and have been expecting to hold £2b net profit - as a minimum.
I'm prepared to accept the analysts will prove the more accurate, but bare in mind they have been way wrong on some of the past quarters in this last financial year, so not giving ground until I see sight of the finals published in a few weeks time on Thursday MAY 7TH.

The last update was 2 weeks behind the actual date published on 13th March (so out of date before being read!) I did post on it, that they had downgraded ever so slightly the key metrics. I did not post on another recent update, (dated 27th March) as that was as much the same as the previous one, because I was looking for this one - a clear and up to date forecast (just released this morning) that fully, FULLY, factors in the very latest political manoeuvrings surrounding the virus and the lock down impact on the economy in regards to BT, and here it is, dated yesterday Thursday, so they've posted a day early this time! But bang up to date.

For those who believe the lockdown WILL affect BT's performance then the consensus of the analysts is that it won't. In fact the progression is a continuation of micro drip, by micro drip, to the downside just as before the virus even broke out in China!

Same old, same old, death by a thousand cuts, type of thinking, except for their forecast for 2021/2022 - which shows the first increase on all headings, but again only by small degrees, as has been the case in their downbeat forecasts - by small degrees only.
Before that (2021/2022) - Want some numbers first? Here we go:

Revenue is forecast in the finals (not bothering with individual Q4 as they won't either, on May 7th - just the full year with Q4 built in, is where all the interest will be) to be down at £22.861bn (Last year £23.459bn)

Net Profit is forecast to be down at £1.982.5bn (last year ( £2.159bn)

Just on those two alone it can be seen they are slightly down on previous updates, but only marginally so; just as if the lockdown is barred from having a dog in this fight, which to me says the analysts see no detriment from the economic lockdown against BT. Business as usual - according to the analysts - because the prior updates back to Q3 are virtually much of a muchness.

Continues >

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